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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #33,001
  • Sep 27, 2007 8:22am Sep 27, 2007 8:22am
Quoting Cope
You do know that the New Home Sales was rumored to have been leaked right? -10.0% v. -5.2est. which equates to 783k v. 825k. This is a substantiated rumor, but still a rumor.
I missed the "buy the rumour"... Soooo....

Quote
Hey Cesar
I just wanted to correct something by your explains about my count - I expect march/april 2008 eurusd to go til 1.45.I expect this week or next week to start a correction til 1.30/1.31 which will end before December.
So guys - get ready for the sell-off
cya

sorry, Krit, you're right...

Quote
Hi Mr cable

could you please also add this comment to the EUR USD thrad and explain how the count was made, i don't even see 1.30 on my charts, so would be very interested in your theories.

MPP

He doesn't hang around here too much anymore. I'll post his chart in the EUR thread. Got his permission to do so...
  • #33,002
  • Sep 27, 2007 8:27am Sep 27, 2007 8:27am
Quoting cesarnc
I missed the "buy the rumour"... Soooo....
Well the rumor hit at 7:15 est which is right around when cable started back up. We'll see if the numbers are accurate or not, if they are I don't expect much more out of it.
  • #33,003
  • Sep 27, 2007 8:29am Sep 27, 2007 8:29am
Hi,
ok I'm going to spend some time and try to explain what I'm waiting.
The whole market and economies are moving in cycles - short/middle/long term.The market is just a mirror of this.In the shadow of every month candle there are political and economical reasons etc..That's why I think Elliott is so good for the long term view - because his theory is that the price moves in waves up and down ..as the news from USA,Europe etc ..
Eur/usd is in the moment in the final 5th wave of the long term cycle.Typical for this wave is that it's possible for fundamental and technical analysis to show different directions.
The final 5th wave is "made" from other 2 cycles - short term and middle term.
This up move is the final 5th wave ( short term) which will finish the third wave from the middle term.That's why I expect a strong down move close to the top of the first move of the middle term move - which is at 1.29!
It's possible for the 4th wave to build a huge triangle or flat correction or something other,but the time will show.
I'm "sure" that we'll see at least 1.36 before December.
Next year will be the year of the trend reversal from the biggest timeframe.
With Bush ending his carrier as president of USA and the economy of Germany going slowly too hot I expect a reverse of the whole economical picture and of course the waves
5th wave could go even higher - it depends from the fundamental picture,but after this final 5th wave is finished 1.45-1.50 than comes the mother of all shorts - strong dollar and 1.16
That's how I see the whole picture.
Success !
  • #33,004
  • Sep 27, 2007 8:35am Sep 27, 2007 8:35am
Some food for thought


http://fxtrade.oanda.com/resources/t...rs_GBP_USD.png
Just Trade It
  • #33,005
  • Sep 27, 2007 8:36am Sep 27, 2007 8:36am
Quoting TheCable
5th wave could go even higher - it depends from the fundamental picture,but after this final 5th wave is finished 1.45-1.50 than comes the mother of all shorts - strong dollar and 1.16
That's how I see the whole picture.
Success !
Personally I've read a little on EWT... i really can't seem to grasp the specifics.

Brilliant analysis i might say.
  • #33,006
  • Sep 27, 2007 8:40am Sep 27, 2007 8:40am
Quote
You do know that the New Home Sales was rumored to have been leaked right? -10.0% v. -5.2est. which equates to 783k v. 825k. This is a substantiated rumor, but still a rumor.

What if some insider has knowingly leaked wrong figure in order to mislead the masses ?
Hello World!
  • #33,007
  • Sep 27, 2007 8:41am Sep 27, 2007 8:41am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting TheCable
Hi,
ok I'm going to spend some time and try to explain what I'm waiting.
The whole market and economies are moving in cycles - short/middle/long term.The market is just a mirror of this.In the shadow of every month candle there are political and economical reasons etc..That's why I think Elliott is so good for the long term view - because his theory is that the price moves in waves up and down ..as the news from USA,Europe etc ..
Eur/usd is in the moment in the final 5th wave of the long term cycle.Typical for this wave is that it's possible for fundamental and technical analysis to show different directions.
The final 5th wave is "made" from other 2 cycles - short term and middle term.
This up move is the final 5th wave ( short term) which will finish the third wave from the middle term.That's why I expect a strong down move close to the top of the first move of the middle term move - which is at 1.29!
It's possible for the 4th wave to build a huge triangle or flat correction or something other,but the time will show.
I'm "sure" that we'll see at least 1.36 before December.
Next year will be the year of the trend reversal from the biggest timeframe.
With Bush ending his carrier as president of USA and the economy of Germany going slowly too hot I expect a reverse of the whole economical picture and of course the waves
5th wave could go even higher - it depends from the fundamental picture,but after this final 5th wave is finished 1.45-1.50 than comes the mother of all shorts - strong dollar and 1.16
That's how I see the whole picture.
Success !

thanks for that, i'm not good at EW, in fact i haven't even tried them yet. But i do agree with the bases of what you say about economics, i believe that economics has an effect on the wave structure almost like the whether does on farming and countries have econmic cycles that are reflected on the world markets.

not sure about the highs and lows but would like to be there which ever way it goes.
  • #33,008
  • Sep 27, 2007 8:42am Sep 27, 2007 8:42am
Quoting ClockTrader
What if some insider has knowingly leaked wrong figure in order to mislead the masses ?
Then I look at the price at the time and decide whether or not to reenter..But if it was right you may not get a huge reaction out of it, that is all I was trying to express.
  • #33,009
  • Sep 27, 2007 8:42am Sep 27, 2007 8:42am
Quoting ClockTrader
What if some insider has knowingly leaked wrong figure in order to mislead the masses ?
did the insider leak at 7.15 EST or 25mins ago?

(Just kidding Cope, no hard feelings.)
  • #33,010
  • Sep 27, 2007 8:45am Sep 27, 2007 8:45am
Quoting leachimeewg
did the insider leak at 7.15 EST or 25mins ago?

(Just kidding Cope, no hard feelings.)
7:15est, and my feelings were not hurt..lol Thanks for the kind words though.
  • #33,011
  • Sep 27, 2007 8:45am Sep 27, 2007 8:45am
Quoting TheCable
Hi,

I'm "sure" that we'll see at least 1.36 before December.

after this final 5th wave is finished 1.45-1.50 than comes the mother of all shorts - strong dollar and 1.16
That's how I see the whole picture.
Success !


Noob question time! The above analysis sounds fantastic and I know a lot of research and experience is involved. I appreciate the information! But...if you go short now in the Eur/Usd will the swaps beat you up until December?
  • #33,012
  • Sep 27, 2007 8:51am Sep 27, 2007 8:51am
Quoting firemed36
Noob question time! The above analysis sounds fantastic and I know a lot of research and experience is involved. I appreciate the information! But...if you go short now in the Eur/Usd will the swaps beat you up until December?
You cant be serious....
.
  • #33,013
  • Sep 27, 2007 8:51am Sep 27, 2007 8:51am
The interest rates in USA are still bigger than the interest rates in Europe.
I don't think,that the next cut will be bigget than 0.25 bp so I'll not lose from swap.
Here's something interesting:
http://www.imagefreehost.com/files/2...1317080339.gif
  • #33,014
  • Sep 27, 2007 8:56am Sep 27, 2007 8:56am
Quoting TheCable
Hi,
ok I'm going to spend some time and try to explain what I'm waiting.
The whole market and economies are moving in cycles - short/middle/long term.The market is just a mirror of this.In the shadow of every month candle there are political and economical reasons etc..That's why I think Elliott is so good for the long term view - because his theory is that the price moves in waves up and down ..as the news from USA,Europe etc ..
Eur/usd is in the moment in the final 5th wave of the long term cycle.Typical for this wave is that it's possible for fundamental and technical analysis to show different directions.
The final 5th wave is "made" from other 2 cycles - short term and middle term.
This up move is the final 5th wave ( short term) which will finish the third wave from the middle term.That's why I expect a strong down move close to the top of the first move of the middle term move - which is at 1.29!
It's possible for the 4th wave to build a huge triangle or flat correction or something other,but the time will show.
I'm "sure" that we'll see at least 1.36 before December.
Next year will be the year of the trend reversal from the biggest timeframe.
With Bush ending his carrier as president of USA and the economy of Germany going slowly too hot I expect a reverse of the whole economical picture and of course the waves
5th wave could go even higher - it depends from the fundamental picture,but after this final 5th wave is finished 1.45-1.50 than comes the mother of all shorts - strong dollar and 1.16
That's how I see the whole picture.
Success !

What you are saying makes complete sense - however (i feel) most traders here dont look at that large a time frame. Its a rule of economics - what goes up must come down. However how quickly or when cannot be predicted - if we look at the chart below - it has been going up for 6 years now - i guess the only thing which will make the dollar strong in the long run is a weak dollar in the short run - if you know what i mean. But yes - 2008 looks poised for a major trend reversal.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur long term.jpg Size: 59 KB
  • #33,015
  • Sep 27, 2007 8:57am Sep 27, 2007 8:57am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting firemed36
Noob question time! The above analysis sounds fantastic and I know a lot of research and experience is involved. I appreciate the information! But...if you go short now in the Eur/Usd will the swaps beat you up until December?
short on EU gives me a positive swap so i make out, it costs me to hold longs.
  • #33,016
  • Sep 27, 2007 9:14am Sep 27, 2007 9:14am
Lousy data...

The market who bought the rumour is looking like selling the news now...
  • #33,017
  • Sep 27, 2007 9:16am Sep 27, 2007 9:16am
Quoting cesarnc
Lousy data...

The market who bought the rumour is looking like selling the news now...
lousy news.
  • #33,018
  • Sep 27, 2007 9:16am Sep 27, 2007 9:16am
Quoting cesarnc
Lousy data...

The market who bought the rumour is looking like selling the news now...
Precisely why I never trade just the number.
  • #33,019
  • Sep 27, 2007 9:18am Sep 27, 2007 9:18am
Quoting Cope
Precisely why I never trade just the number.
lol... we'll have to wait another day for 1.42 then.. shucks.. lol..

i was just plotting the fiber graph and 1.4230 looks ripe peaking.. then again read my disclaimer.
  • #33,020
  • Sep 27, 2007 9:24am Sep 27, 2007 9:24am
Quoting leachimeewg
lol... we'll have to wait another day for 1.42 then.. shucks.. lol..

i was just plotting the fiber graph and 1.4230 looks ripe peaking.. then again read my disclaimer.
Lol. You never know, I've seen stranger things happen. But, it certainly was time for a bit of a correction.
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