Attachments: USD/CHF

USD/CHF

#6,661
Jun 15, 2026 11:33pm Jun 15, 2026 11:33pm

Luxyus
Joined Dec 2020 | Status: TIME is my GAIN | 1,967 Posts

Probability Distribution Curve (6SU6 Implied Volatility)

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my last pendings are waiting @7899.

chaos is just unknown order

#6,662
Jun 17, 2026 12:31pm Jun 17, 2026 12:31pm

Ziko9o8
Joined Mar 2011 | Status: Trader | 1,535 Posts

Just closed all usdchf long positions @ 0.8003

#6,663
Jun 18, 2026 12:15pm Jun 18, 2026 12:15pm

Luxyus
Joined Dec 2020 | Status: TIME is my GAIN | 1,967 Posts

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chaos is just unknown order

#6,664
Jun 18, 2026 4:21pm Jun 18, 2026 4:21pm

Ziko9o8
Joined Mar 2011 | Status: Trader | 1,535 Posts

0.8075 is next

#6,665
Jun 18, 2026 4:44pm Jun 18, 2026 4:44pm

Pandora92
| Joined Jun 2026 | Status: Trader | 2 Posts

I've been watching USD/CHF lately and it's been pretty choppy. After that strong dollar run earlier this year, the pair pulled back hard when the SNB held rates steady. I'm still long from around 0.88 but it's testing my patience with all the ranging.

The Swiss franc feels like a safe haven play right now with all the global uncertainty. What do you guys think—anybody catching the recent bounces or waiting for a clearer break below 0.87? I've been scaling out small pieces on rallies to manage risk. Solid pair for longer-term holds if you're patient.

Anyone else trading it actively these days?

#6,666
Edited 7:06pm Jun 18, 2026 6:18pm | Edited 7:06pm

GhosTraderGT
Joined May 2021 | Status: Unfollow the herd | 1,814 Posts

Quoting Pandora92

Disliked

I've been watching USD/CHF lately and it's been pretty choppy. After that strong dollar run earlier this year, the pair pulled back hard when the SNB held rates steady. I'm still long from around 0.88 but it's testing my patience with all the ranging. The Swiss franc feels like a safe haven play right now with all the global uncertainty. What do you guys think—anybody catching the recent bounces or waiting for a clearer break below 0.87? I've been scaling out small pieces on rallies to manage risk. Solid pair for longer-term holds if you're patient....

Ignored

Remain Calm.
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...8#post15744758

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Grit; Knowledge; Right Mindset; All you need to overcome. KIS!

#6,667
Jun 18, 2026 6:37pm Jun 18, 2026 6:37pm

GhosTraderGT
Joined May 2021 | Status: Unfollow the herd | 1,814 Posts

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Grit; Knowledge; Right Mindset; All you need to overcome. KIS!

#6,668
Jun 18, 2026 9:22pm Jun 18, 2026 9:22pm

Luxyus
Joined Dec 2020 | Status: TIME is my GAIN | 1,967 Posts

Quoting Pandora92

Disliked

I've been watching USD/CHF lately and it's been pretty choppy. After that strong dollar run earlier this year, the pair pulled back hard when the SNB held rates steady. I'm still long from around 0.88 but it's testing my patience with all the ranging. The Swiss franc feels like a safe haven play right now with all the global uncertainty. What do you guys think—anybody catching the recent bounces or waiting for a clearer break below 0.87? I've been scaling out small pieces on rallies to manage risk. Solid pair for longer-term holds if you're patient....

Ignored

Currently .87 is irrealistic, for now.
in terms of probabilities according the current macro conditions there s only a 20% for a target @ ~ .8350 max. On weekly basis.

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It depends by how much time (and margin) u have to wait and how you manage your positions, anyway. But u already know, i m sure of that

chaos is just unknown order

#6,669
Jun 18, 2026 9:30pm Jun 18, 2026 9:30pm

Luxyus
Joined Dec 2020 | Status: TIME is my GAIN | 1,967 Posts

Quoting GhosTraderGT

Disliked

{image}

Ignored

i m following that div since it has started, with all the patience needed but ihmo to have some chances of a overvalue of dollar against swiss franc we ll'have to wait at least a couple of years and a very favourable conjuctures

chaos is just unknown order

#6,670
Edited 1:53am Jun 20, 2026 12:27am | Edited 1:53am

GhosTraderGT
Joined May 2021 | Status: Unfollow the herd | 1,814 Posts

Quoting Luxyus

Disliked

{quote} i m following that div since it has started, with all the patience needed but ihmo to have some chances of a overvalue of dollar against swiss franc we ll'have to wait at least a couple of years and a very favourable conjuctures

Ignored

No doubt Luxyus. I agree. No one is certain if price will get to 0.87 and when! We all have different approach & methods to project & confirm price direction despite market uncertainty and based on your response you are referring to the longer term scenario. I tend to focus on the short/mid term price movement + direction.

I have valid setups (multiple bullish scenarios & confluences on the HTFs with "likely projected targets") + current interest rate differential on this pair further confirming current USD strength vs CHF. So far USD is making a retracement effort looking at the HTF chart especially on the weekly. For now cant say if it is indeed a reversal but same question remains, how far up can it go? My projections (give or take 300-400 pips from current price) - 0.8090(current), 0.8200, 0.8400, 0.8500. *+ a break above 0.8120 would confirm my analysis.

I have strong interest on this pair and have a feeling of a market shift from CHF/GOLD to USD.

Till then as we watch PA unfold.

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Grit; Knowledge; Right Mindset; All you need to overcome. KIS!

#6,671
Jun 20, 2026 1:16am Jun 20, 2026 1:16am

GhosTraderGT
Joined May 2021 | Status: Unfollow the herd | 1,814 Posts

Quoting GhosTraderGT

Disliked

D1 {image} {image}

Ignored

Before and After

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Grit; Knowledge; Right Mindset; All you need to overcome. KIS!

#6,672
Jun 21, 2026 10:02pm Jun 21, 2026 10:02pm

Luxyus
Joined Dec 2020 | Status: TIME is my GAIN | 1,967 Posts

like a magnet, guess what

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chaos is just unknown order

#6,673
Jun 22, 2026 2:40am Jun 22, 2026 2:40am

Luxyus
Joined Dec 2020 | Status: TIME is my GAIN | 1,967 Posts

For intraday shorts there s life only untill 0.8065, for now. It s the 0TDE strike, MM will reject once touched.

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chaos is just unknown order

#6,674
Jun 22, 11:57pm (39 hr ago) Jun 22, 11:57pm (39 hr ago)

Murim
| Joined Jun 2026 | Status: Trader | 1 Post

ive been analysing it for a bit now, it will be an uptrend for atleast the next week if not a bit longer, there will be a draw down but thats just a correction then its back up again

#6,675
Jun 23, 12:11am (38 hr ago) Jun 23, 12:11am (38 hr ago)

Jeks
Joined Apr 2025 | Status: Trader | 239 Posts

A wedge has formed on the H1 timeframe for the USDCHF pair. The resistance level of 0.8093 has been holding the price for three days now, pushing it lower. If the lower boundary of the wedge is broken, the support level of 0.8012 could be a selling target. If the price breaks upward from 0.8093, the resistance level of 0.8128 could be a buying target.

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#6,676
Jun 23, 12:40am (38 hr ago) Jun 23, 12:40am (38 hr ago)

Luxyus
Joined Dec 2020 | Status: TIME is my GAIN | 1,967 Posts

Quoting Jeks

Disliked

A wedge has formed on the H1 timeframe for the USDCHF pair. The resistance level of 0.8093 has been holding the price for three days now, pushing it lower. If the lower boundary of the wedge is broken, the support level of 0.8012 could be a selling target. If the price breaks upward from 0.8093, the resistance level of 0.8128 could be a buying target. {image}

Ignored

by checking volumes, till now, it s an intraday re-accumulation process. the move expected is still to the upside

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