Cable Update (GBPUSD)

DX and EU tested their levels on Apr 14, GU missed it by 60 pips, now all 3 are converged to the monthly POC
A little bit of order, so to speak

May seasonality
median oh - 107 pips
median ol - -290 pips

upper quartile for the same metrics
33
-178

Disproportional and shifted compared to base or April (for example)

... price on the 1st day of the new month (Friday,) has already traveled 24% of it's 6mth amr. @ 3658 YH/LWH/CMH (ie Fri's hi,) price met supply in coexistent prev 1hr/4hr sw hi zones = prev res x 1 = pot res that in all extend up to 3672, and boom,! we saw the off the edge of a cliff drop that resulted. YL (Fri's lo) challenged and met some late in the trading day rbs 'buy the dip' demand (re the week's main up-move,) in the prev 30min/4hr/minor dly sw hi zone = pot rbs that starts @ the now previous week's 3576 hi. This zone on 4hr extends down to circa 3555. The 3454 LWL and 3658 YH/LWH/CMH are circled in red on chart below. 50% of that up-move is @ 3556.

Difficult to assess the closing state of the 1hr t/f. Possibly a messy general uptrend? I don't know.

EDIT: typo.

1hr below

Noticed you are doing well with your analysis not allowing the draw down to gulp your profits any longer.

Congratulations and keep it up

... readers of this thread and my posts will have noticed that I don't give explicit trading signals, and nor do I pretend that I know/can predict what price will do next. Indeed, I don't have to know, so I don't spend time worrying about it. It will do what it will do, and probabilities will do the rest. It's all we really have.

The individual repeating set-ups that make up my Trading Edge, develop in the optimum and non-optimum overall price action situations on the t/f's they develop on, and the next higher t/f in that particular t/f combination. I know over a very large multi-decade sample what the probabilities of a winning outcome of those repeating set-ups are, and if one develops, I then chose whether or not to enter the market, and at what risk %, based on those. What will happen next will happen next. If I enter the market, the trade will be one of the greater probability winning outcomes, or one of the lesser probability losing outcomes. I do not know in advance, (and neither does anybody.) That's it. It's as simple as that.

I mentioned earlier in the week that the Mthly bullish engulf thrust close earlier this week had a 70% chance of seeing an upside follow-thru of at least the size of that candle, at some point. (based on what I consider a representative past sample on this instrument/that t/f.) Ie; although not my Edge per say, I also keep stats on certain PA on this instrument and on different t/f's re probability.

Using the same criteria;

a. The bearish-bodied hammer candle on the dly t/f on Friday has a 75% chance of a downside follow-thru at some point, of at least the size of the candle, (whilst price remains in it's hi-lo re any upside p/back that may occur first.
b. The wkly t/f has now seen 4 x bullish-bodied candle closes in a row. The chance of a 5th at some point, of at least the size of the 4th candle, (whilst price remains in the lo-hi of the last re any downside p/back that may occur first,) is 60%.

So, the greater probability in all 3 cases by varying degrees. This greater probability in all 3 cases, will result, or it will not. Time will tell.

EDIT: typo.

... how many times on this and other threads do people post that they have bought or sold, and when challenged why they have done so, either clam up/don't respond, become defensive/abusive, or say something like '...because it looks as though it is heading north/south ..' respectively, or words to that effect? Ie they don't have an Edge, and don't know it. Some don't even know what an Edge is. Some even think they do have one, but they don't, ie they may even think that their guess/prediction, is their Edge. They probably don't have the other 2 requirements for consistent, reliable, long-term profitability either, ie; - a. To have developed the necessary personal psychology/got control of their emotions to trade an Edge, specific to each particular Edge, and b. Methodology.

It's been documented before, but we all fall into the 4 stages of Competence in undertaking/performing any task/profession. They are;

1. Unconscious Incompetence
You don't yet know what it is you don't know and need to know/learn/acquire in order to become successful.
2. Conscious Incompetence
Now you are aware/becoming aware of what it is you don't yet know, and need to know/learn/acquire in order to become successful.
3. Conscious Competence
Having learnt/acquired what you need, you are now tentatively putting into practice, - still making mistakes, but learning from them.
4. Unconscious Competence
You have been doing it for a good while, are successful at it, and it has become 2nd Nature to you.

Having read this post, you are now at least at Stage 2, insofar as technical trading is concerned. Some may be more advanced in this 4 Stage Process, and others will be at Stage 1, whether they know it/accept it, or not.

What if the top for GU is not done yet?
Here's what I expect:
1). Price reclaims the 1.3594 level and keeps buying until
2). 1.3676 is exceeded.
I am of the opinion that these need to happen before the expected 300+ pips sell off.

Looking at the formation at the extreme high that was established at 1.3657. There was liquidity engineering at extension 1.618 against the previous monthly high...
That serves as completion of that particular trend.

However, price may decide to create a support from here or move down a little more to create a support and move upward to extension 2.000 as continuity of this existing structure.

And it's also possible to have a reversal against the existing move from here.

The most important subject here is the traders mindset. It should be neutral for now while waiting for whatever price will do.

(1) It is totally wrong to assume price is going up when structure for completion has been sighted
(2) Assume that support will hold for price continuation when we have not seen the dept of the pullback.
(3) Reversal will set in when structures has not been created at all.

My own mindset for now is neutral as we are starting on a new slate.

3 possibilities at market open are, liquidity engineering, gap down or clean price movement.... Any of the options will serve as commencement of a new structure that will eventually determines market direction at completion.

Have a nice weekend buddy.

absolutely stunning post..., more posts like these everyone...

you know im in the news section since i stopped trading GU and switched to index trading with americans in a irc channel

friday gave me daily sell signals on GU and EU

The GBPUSD price action on the daily time frame went sideways on Friday after a bearish pushback from the 1.35870 horizontal resistance. It is presently located at the 1.35630 intra-day horizontal support. Nevertheless, we may still see further northward price engineering before further southward correction. The dominant technical structure is sideways.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Worst thing that can happen to trader, is to predict the market and be right...

Took profit at historical support and adr low 1.35300

my brother how you been havent seen you in a while

Sold 1.3566 SL 1.3580