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Elliott Wave Counting with EG

  • #341
  • Aug 23, 2007 10:01am Aug 23, 2007 10:01am
Looks likr consolidation time for GBPJPY FOR NOW....

ranging price levels within 50 to 100 pips and moving sideways..

hopefully to prepare its continued move down to 230

EG
  • #342
  • Aug 23, 2007 10:28am Aug 23, 2007 10:28am
just a few more minutes and we will be back to this freefall of GBPJPY to complete the 1st mini wave down.

then retrace time while I sleep

EG
  • #343
  • Aug 23, 2007 10:35am Aug 23, 2007 10:35am
out at 232.62. I am satisfied with my trade tonight. tomorrow will be q
another day.

actually added a short while it wqas ranging and earned half its value. Not bad for less than an hour.

earliers shorts were much better .

Happy trading everyone

EG
  • #344
  • Aug 23, 2007 10:36am Aug 23, 2007 10:36am
Hi money or anyone that can help,

I have a question about your count. I am new in learning the EW so pleas help me understant your count. my question is on the red circles, wave count 1, 2,3, 4 and 5. EW rules; Wave 4 may never end in the price territory of Wave 1 and Impulse wave 1,3 and 5 ---Wave 3 can never be the shortest. Now it appears you count breaks these rules. Is there something I am missing. Help me understand please. Carolyn
Quoting money
hi, everyone. i made another analysis with elliot theory. i hope that will help you!!
nice trading

http://www.trading-fx.si/forum/privatslike/fx05.gif
  • #345
  • Aug 23, 2007 12:58pm Aug 23, 2007 12:58pm
Hi Carolyn.

had to retype this reply as there was a power outage herebefore I could send it. was lucky though that I exited my trades already.

anyway still could not sleep so I am back on my computer.

re money's chart.....

remember that we are seeing a bearmarket here with the trend going down for the EURUSD. so a 5 wave impulse wave should be seen as going down. you will notice that waves 1 3 5 have their termination points at the end of a wave going down while the corrective waves 2 and 4 have termination points at the top of a wave.

if you look at the chart again and measure even visually the length of waves 1 3 and 5, you will see that it is wave 1 which is the shortest. so no rule is broken there.

as to wave 4 entering the price territory of waves 1 and 2.... it still does not violate this rule as the termination point of wave 4 which is at the top of that wave is still lower than the termination point of wave 1 which is also the origin of wave 2. put an imaginary line right above the red encirciled label 1 and extend that line to the right. you will see that it is higher than the termination point of wave 4.

I hope that helps.

EG
  • #346
  • Aug 23, 2007 1:02pm Aug 23, 2007 1:02pm
Looks like we are now in startting with a corrective wave after this miniwave 1 of wave 5 down. Looking for a retrace from 233.54 upto the previous high of 234.88.

Then I should have my new short trades in.

EG
  • #347
  • Aug 23, 2007 1:20pm Aug 23, 2007 1:20pm
New Shorts for GBPJPY may be very near again.

Any one want to ride along?????

EG
  • #348
  • Aug 23, 2007 1:33pm Aug 23, 2007 1:33pm
Hey EG,

Things are getting interesting here. If this wave 4 goes into the price territory of wave 1 then I will have to revise my count, but so far so good.

If it is the end of 4 and we are on 5 down I don't see it going past the termination point of 3, do you? I see another truncated 5th developing if it is a 5th wave, for the end of C.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: daily.jpg Size: 35 KB
Eish! If you don't fly with the eagles you'll scratch with the turkeys
  • #349
  • Aug 23, 2007 1:56pm Aug 23, 2007 1:56pm
Quoting el grande
Finished C532C3
Developing C532C4 = Currently forming a BULL FLAG IN 4 HOUR CHART

Reference indicates price to hit flag channel 6 times. 7th thrust will be a breakout on the upside.

Have not really seen this proven yet but will watch how it develops on this pair now.

If price bounces on the lower channel for the 6th time later and does not breakout on the downside, I would think that as best position to enter a new Long for me.

Target if this breakout appears:
1.9938
1.9988
2.0020 EXCEEDED till 2.0092

EG

was reviewing posts and noticed this one. )
  • #350
  • Aug 23, 2007 1:59pm Aug 23, 2007 1:59pm
Quoting el grande
Cable may now be on a wave 4 up as retracement:

23.6 @1.9917
38.2 @2.009
50% @ 2.0084 This one is much nearer to 2.0092

often seen at 38.2%


other potential levels would be
1.9972
1.9941
1.9930


1.9897

EG
and this one too....
  • #351
  • Aug 23, 2007 2:10pm Aug 23, 2007 2:10pm
Hey AP

Below is a portion of my post @ 295

"I have revised my Cable Count AFTER GOING THROUGH IT OVER AND OVER AGAIN.

Monthly - we are on a Wave C UP from 1.3680 June 2001 and that means we are in a 5 wave structure UP on the monthly chart

Weekly - We have finished Wave C2 and are already in a developing C3.
Inside C3, we have finished C34 and developing C35

Daily - Inside C35.... we have finished C352 and developing C353.

However, here is where I am stopped out. If I see that 2.0652 top as the end of my C3531...... ( this current drop till 1.9651 just 30 pips away from the 1.9621 low of my C352 in 2007 06 08 ) is threatening to alter my count."


Yes your view that we may end up with a truncated wave 5 down is possible. The most that I would see GBPUSD going down is till 1.9622 so as not to invalidate my current wave count n Cable.

From there.... its back to shooting or must I say Sky rocketing to the high heavens a 2.1200 price level may not be that far afterall.

We will see how this turns out...

EG
  • #352
  • Aug 23, 2007 2:24pm Aug 23, 2007 2:24pm
AP

Since you asked that question..... and I remembered my earlier post on Cable.... that made me realize that I may now be wrong with my current forecast for GBPJPY.

And probably the rest of the correlated pairs like AUDUSD, NZDUSD and EURUSD.

GBPJPY may not afterall plunge to 209.

I guess that is the beauty of working the wave counts up to the monthly charts. It gives us a broader perspective as to potential price direction and factors that wil validate or invalidate our counts.

EG
  • #353
  • Aug 23, 2007 2:27pm Aug 23, 2007 2:27pm
so what do you see now?
  • #354
  • Aug 23, 2007 2:36pm Aug 23, 2007 2:36pm
GBPJPY Shorts

Missed nice entry for my short at 232.89
Saw multiple attacks to a resistance level in this area.
had to settle for 30 pips lower. Too bad my broker rejected my first attempt to place short trade higher than 232.59

looks like this pair is going into a much longer sideeways movement which could probably last 3-4 hours.

Maybe I could get a better entry then.

EG
  • #355
  • Aug 23, 2007 2:38pm Aug 23, 2007 2:38pm
Quoting s3padrian
so what do you see now?

see with what specifically?
  • #356
  • Aug 23, 2007 2:41pm Aug 23, 2007 2:41pm
GBPJPY may not afterall plunge to 209.

EG[/quote]




Let me guess............218-220 for the end of A?
Eish! If you don't fly with the eagles you'll scratch with the turkeys
  • #357
  • Aug 23, 2007 2:46pm Aug 23, 2007 2:46pm
Quoting africanpip
Hey EG,

Things are getting interesting here. If this wave 4 goes into the price territory of wave 1 then I will have to revise my count, but so far so good.

If it is the end of 4 and we are on 5 down I don't see it going past the termination point of 3, do you? I see another truncated 5th developing if it is a 5th wave, for the end of C.

Hey AP..

I forgot to ask.... what made you think that Cable will not go past the termination point of Wave 3 and result to a truncated Wave 5?

EG
  • #358
  • Aug 23, 2007 2:56pm Aug 23, 2007 2:56pm
For thos following my trade on GBPJPY......

Note that my SL is at 600pips sometimes going up to 800 or 1000 for this pair.

So I still take a lot of risk with my capital. That is the reason I remind you not to use it on LIVE accounts ( besidesthese being amateur wave counts ).

on AUDUSD and NZD its 200- 400 while GBPUSD and EURUSD is 400-500.

My broker is not on MT4 Platform and have various levels of margin per pair. Could really make one crazy but for now, I am sticking it out as they have office in my country and have local support.

Large SLs also allow me to experiment on trading price turns when I want a faster trading pace. to break the monotony of watching charts.

EG
  • #359
  • Aug 23, 2007 3:14pm Aug 23, 2007 3:14pm
Quoting africanpip
GBPJPY may not afterall plunge to 209.

EG



Let me guess............218-220 for the end of A?[/quote]


I have not really zoomed out on GBPJPY EW Count yet until now

I am thinking looking at the charts that :

Monthly - most likely on a sideways wave 4 which is nearing its end (ooopppps..... that could now change my view) see what your questions are doing to my rusty brain??

--- if this is the monthly scenario.... then 209 would have to play out.

( I guess there is no 100% Correlation with any pair just higher probabilities or correlation )

Weekly ----- We could be in Wave C4 on the weekly and C1 Top is at the range of 192.43/66 in 01-20-2002 3-31-2002. So this is still quite low. a 209 then is possible now.

Just to remind everyone, 209 target does not necessarily mean like it would be zooming down to that level. there will be impulse and corrective waves a long the way.

So if you are an intra day trader in forex like I am, then better base your current trades on EW counts at this smaller time frame levels.

How I wish I could start having the balls to shift to position trading.... This past year since september 2006 had been a world shaking roller coaster ride for me.

EG
  • #360
  • Aug 23, 2007 3:17pm Aug 23, 2007 3:17pm
GBPJPY

Resistance level broken at 232.85.

Looks like we are getting a Zigzag corrective wave now for this pair.

Watching price i from 233.64 till 234.86

EG

PS.

Most likely higher than 234.18 and highly like nearest to 234.86
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