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Elliott Wave Counting with EG

  • #301
  • Aug 22, 2007 2:19am Aug 22, 2007 2:19am
Gbp/Usd

Price Action ..........
-------------------------------------------------
Can Price break below 9645 this week ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBP-08-21-2007-#3.jpg Size: 57 KB
  • #302
  • Aug 22, 2007 4:06am Aug 22, 2007 4:06am
Suntrader
I don't think following EW has to be broken down to the lowest and highest levels of wave counts unless one is trading all the different timeframes. Just one level above and below the timeframe one is trading. In other words if someone is trading the 60min chart watch the 240min and the 15min. Wave counts all the way out to monthly are not needed unless they are trading weekly charts.

I tend to agree about many timeframes as I mainly use the daily chart but I also dip into the hourly chart. My long term analysis was based on a daily chart, which is the timeframe I mainly use for analysis/trading. [Personally, I am not keen on using monthly/weekly charts as I think it can all be obtained from daily charts - on longer timeframes! :-)]

Africanpip
Agreed, however it is good to know what the bigger picture is. It doesn't change all that quickly but to reference the large time frames from time to time, to keep in mind the larger trends is a good practice.

This is the key point as far as I am concerned as it gives current price action context. That context is useful in forming a view as to the larger price directions and as a consequence the probable limits of current moves. I think we are all tending to produce similar analysis of wave counts following the 20655 peak, however, dependent on your view of what wave finished at 20655 [my very first question on this forum] that will influence your expectations about future price patterns.

Of course I am simply expressing a preference here as it is entirely possible to trade from hourly charts with 4 hourly charts providing context and to be guided by price action on a short-term basis. I like to use longer timeframes [2-30 years] on daily charts using less detail to provide the context for more immediate [3months - 1 year] daily charts using more detail [as well as hourly charts].

What I would be interested in hearing is what type of trading plan you guys use with your Elliott Wave analysis, although El Grande if you would like that question asked in a separate thread then I am happy to do that to keep this one on focus - counting.
  • #303
  • Aug 22, 2007 5:16am Aug 22, 2007 5:16am
Marketwavez
Gbp/Usd
Price Action ..........
-------------------------------------------------
Can Price break below 9645 this week ?

Let me ask two questions:
1) Why have you chosen an impulsive pattern [wave 1-5] rather than a corrective pattern [wave a-c]?
2) Assuming Wave 1-5 why have you counted Wave 3 as completed?

The reason I am asking the second question is that my current count is that Wave 3 is still in progress i.e. we are in 3.iv as opposed to 4. This is mainly based on the internal wave count. There is an argument that Wave "3" finished at 19652 based on 20655-20181-20463-19652 because Wave "1" x 161.8% = 767, which is fairly close to the actual drop of 811.

My current perspective regarding probable price action: I would expect wave "3" to complete soon and probably to finish somewhere around 19700 or above the 19652 low; the ideal target is 19696. I would then expect the larger "4" or c.4 to start, which should also see a complex correction at these levels but probably with a higher high than 19938 and an ideal target of between 19989-20080 assuming 19696 is the completion of the previous wave. I would need to revise the current count if 19652 is broken as it becomes likely that wave "5" or c.5 is in progress. Equally, I would need to revise the count if wave "4" goes above wave 1 at 20156.
  • #304
  • Aug 22, 2007 10:05am Aug 22, 2007 10:05am
Anybody using the Neely system and his indicator?
I havent quit figured it out yet, I am still reading the book which is pretty damm complicated. I havent found the indicator in his book so I was hoping some one could explain it. I see that it makes waves and zig zags but how do I count these?
Just Trade It
  • #305
  • Edited 10:52am Aug 22, 2007 10:39am | Edited 10:52am
Quoting rnl16616
Marketwavez
Gbp/Usd
Price Action ..........
-------------------------------------------------
Can Price break below 9645 this week ?

Let me ask two questions:
1) Why have you chosen an impulsive pattern [wave 1-5] rather than a corrective pattern [wave a-c]?
2) Assuming Wave 1-5 why have you counted Wave 3 as completed?
Hi
In the chart above I'm only interested in entering on a break below 9645
This is the one and only concern ...
If price keeps going up or consolidates there will be no entry

--------------------------------------------------------------------
Don't expect everyone to have the same wave count as you .
It doesn't matter what you think what wave-count is happening
because the markets are dynamic and besides we all don't think
the same way , so therefore is always a difference of opinion

This is what Forums like this are for -
- It's a place to exchange ideas and thoughts

So don't get caught up in the argument of who has
the Right or or Wrong wave-count ..........

Remember ,
All of Technical Analysis is Subjective -All is subject to change !
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

If you dis-agree with any wavecount , That's ok
Just post your charts and state your case !

 Time will then tell us all -......
  • #306
  • Edited 10:57am Aug 22, 2007 10:45am | Edited 10:57am
Quoting Big Wave Rider
Anybody using the Neely system and his indicator?
I havent quit figured it out yet, I am still reading the book which is pretty damm complicated. I havent found the indicator in his book so I was hoping some one could explain it. I see that it makes waves and zig zags but how do I count these?
Neely - will only confuse you .....
I've got some files that do a better job at explaining ..............
and I've got some links if you need them , just send me a PM
  • #307
  • Aug 22, 2007 3:55pm Aug 22, 2007 3:55pm
marketwavez
Don't expect everyone to have the same wave count as you...
I don't, that is why I have asked questions.

...so therefore is always a difference of opinion...It's a place to exchange ideas and thoughts
That's my understanding too; that is why I have asked questions. Given the above, I did expect an answer based on an Elliott Wave count...

So don't get caught up in the argument of who has
the Right or or Wrong wave-count ..........
I haven't.

Time will then tell us all -......
I agree.
  • #308
  • Aug 22, 2007 3:58pm Aug 22, 2007 3:58pm
MW,

Think you are missing data because although there is a breakdown of support I don't have a gap area for that period.

Sun
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD60.jpg Size: 48 KB
  • #309
  • Aug 22, 2007 4:07pm Aug 22, 2007 4:07pm
marketwavez
Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Wave Rider http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Anybody using the Neely system and his indicator?
I havent quit figured it out yet, I am still reading the book which is pretty damm complicated. I havent found the indicator in his book so I was hoping some one could explain it. I see that it makes waves and zig zags but how do I count these?

Neely - will only confuse you .....

I tend to agree with marketwavez. I looked at Neely, version 1, many years ago and I have only more recently gotten hold of version 2. I think it is overly complex as Elliott Wave analysis has its moments where it seems that everything goes according to the "plan" but also has times where it is simply indecipherable without the benefit of hindsight.

After saying that, I would be interested to hear of people that use Neely [Neowave?] and find it better than "standard" Elliott Wave.
  • #310
  • Aug 22, 2007 10:52pm Aug 22, 2007 10:52pm
Gbp/Usd
ok Here is an update


Price broke out of the channel to the upside .........
So no entry so far -
---------------------------------------------------------------
Still waiting for a break below 9645
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBP-08-22-2007-#1.jpg Size: 66 KB
  • #311
  • Aug 22, 2007 11:22pm Aug 22, 2007 11:22pm
Gbp/Usd

Here is another view of what I think is happening

It is only a Probability ! ................
--------------------------------------------
If you think different , That's O.K.


Let's see what you are thinking , Just post your charts -

Time will then tell all ! ......
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBP-08-22-2007-#2.jpg Size: 66 KB
  • #312
  • Aug 23, 2007 12:01am Aug 23, 2007 12:01am
Gbp/Usd -( Long-Term )

////////////////////////////////////////////
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBP-08-23-2007-#1.jpg Size: 57 KB
  • #313
  • Aug 23, 2007 12:48am Aug 23, 2007 12:48am
Quoting marketwavez
Neely - will only confuse you .....
I've got some files that do a better job at explaining ..............
and I've got some links if you need them , just send me a PM
marketwavez hi , sorry to jump in ,
I have the same kind of problem , so if I can ask you to sher your files & links with me to .

thanks Erez.
  • #314
  • Aug 23, 2007 12:49am Aug 23, 2007 12:49am
i think this is the time for 5 th wave

plz check this out EG
if i am right or wrong
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: g j 5th wave.jpg Size: 38 KB
  • #315
  • Aug 23, 2007 2:15am Aug 23, 2007 2:15am
mradnan

For awhile there , I thought you posted a chart for GBPUSD. after checking again, it was GBPJPY.

I am currently Long on GBPJPY.

... just attained the 61.8% retracement for for Wave 2 inside the Final Wave 5 up of this Wave C Up going to 235.5

This is the level I would be looking at to set my Shorts for the Final Wave 5 down to lower than 219.

EG
  • #316
  • Aug 23, 2007 2:24am Aug 23, 2007 2:24am
This is what I like when people start asking questions....

mradnan.....

I have to correct myself here some how. This wave 5 I am looking at is actually wqave 5 inside wave 3 UP targetting 233.

I am thinking that a wave 4 retracement down to 231.33 up to 230.80 will take place prior to the move towards 235.5.

Again, I would like to remind evryone that this are not trade calls but thoughts based on my wave count right now.

EG
  • #317
  • Aug 23, 2007 2:46am Aug 23, 2007 2:46am
Quoting rnl16616
Suntrader
I don't think following EW has to be broken down to the lowest and highest levels of wave counts unless one is trading all the different timeframes. Just one level above and below the timeframe one is trading. In other words if someone is trading the 60min chart watch the 240min and the 15min. Wave counts all the way out to monthly are not needed unless they are trading weekly charts.

I tend to agree about many timeframes as I mainly use the daily chart but I also dip into the hourly chart. My long term analysis was based on a daily chart, which is the timeframe I mainly use for analysis/trading. [Personally, I am not keen on using monthly/weekly charts as I think it can all be obtained from daily charts - on longer timeframes! :-)]

Africanpip
Agreed, however it is good to know what the bigger picture is. It doesn't change all that quickly but to reference the large time frames from time to time, to keep in mind the larger trends is a good practice.

This is the key point as far as I am concerned as it gives current price action context. That context is useful in forming a view as to the larger price directions and as a consequence the probable limits of current moves. I think we are all tending to produce similar analysis of wave counts following the 20655 peak, however, dependent on your view of what wave finished at 20655 [my very first question on this forum] that will influence your expectations about future price patterns.

Of course I am simply expressing a preference here as it is entirely possible to trade from hourly charts with 4 hourly charts providing context and to be guided by price action on a short-term basis. I like to use longer timeframes [2-30 years] on daily charts using less detail to provide the context for more immediate [3months - 1 year] daily charts using more detail [as well as hourly charts].

What I would be interested in hearing is what type of trading plan you guys use with your Elliott Wave analysis, although El Grande if you would like that question asked in a separate thread then I am happy to do that to keep this one on focus - counting.

Firstly, I want to thank you rnl16616 for your questions. It helps stir the pot and get the cooking done and wakes up idle minds and breaks the ice of watching charts for quite sometime.

Each trader will have his own style of trading. I am still trying to learn EW Principle / Theory and I can defiinitely say that my counts are still attempts at applying what I think I learned and still am learning on EW.

In my desire to learn EW Theory and its application, I try to apply it from the highest TF to the lowest TF on my desired Pairs. I believe that thru practice we can learn more. At least I do....

What better way to practice it by applying it on specific desired pairs rather than on multiple pairs and applying just on the daily to hourly charts. I actually try to apply it up to the 1 min chart as it gives me more ways to practice applying the theory and principle. I know many would say that lower than 4h or 1h is just noise.

But to me, I believe there is music in what others think as noise...... if we only listen and pay atteention long enough....

I am still using EW on Intraday trades. But hope to master it enough to get on the swing or position trades. It has really been very stressful for me since I started trading as I had been trading on higher margin with out really mastering this. Plus I was trying to use a multitude of technical indicators.

I am still struggling to maintain self control and discipline in my trades with a lot of help of many here in FF to increase the probability of having a profitable wave count.

But now, it has lately been less stressful specially as I try to practice MM and have more trust on EW and Fib Retracements and Extentions with the help of friends here in FF.

EG
  • #318
  • Aug 23, 2007 5:05am Aug 23, 2007 5:05am
hi, everyone. i made another analysis with elliot theory. i hope that will help you!!
nice trading

http://www.trading-fx.si/forum/privatslike/fx05.gif
  • #319
  • Aug 23, 2007 5:33am Aug 23, 2007 5:33am
Hey money...

those steps seem to be very easy to spot now that you have labelled them. Looks perfect.

EG
  • #320
  • Aug 23, 2007 5:51am Aug 23, 2007 5:51am
Ok. Sorry about this ...... have been doing the GBPJPY mostly these days although I still look into GBPUSD from time to time and EURUSD, AUDUSD and NZDUSD.

I will try to post my comments on GBPJPY here so I do not have multiple posts in other people's thread.

It was just so tempting to chime in everytime something develops in my mind as I watch the charts.

But do not let this posts of mine discourage you from posting here. You are all welcome to post your wave counts here for validation with the gurus ( not me of course as I am also still learning ) .

So if any one still has questions regarding wave counts please just write them down here. I am sure some one will provide a reply if I can not.

Okay GBPJPY now...

1hr chart about to form a doji or pin bar. if the next candle is a bearish engulfing candle, then we have 1st sign of a bear market.

it is possible that after 3 bars of all bearish candles, price will attempt to make a new high so be careful. Otherwise, we will just see a 61.8 to 100% retracement for the subwave 2 up after a subwave 1 down.

EG
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