Cable Update (GBPUSD)

unconvinced it's false, but may just become rangebound one step lower.

free4440273 why are you so convinced BOE won't raise rates?

do you have any supporting evidence?

LOL, supporting evidence? even i can't 'predict' what those fools get up to! no, i just rely on their incompetence. they should have raised many months ago (to six per cent). now noise from the housing market, manufacturers etc have their ear. as i say, it's all relative but i am still GPB/USD short (very). I could be wrong. your thoughts sir?

Im not sure what will happen, possible reasons.

For

LIBOR is over 5.50%

Inflation still over 2%

Against

House prices except for South East are moderating and in redcent months mortgage approvals have been down which shows slow down in housing.

Inflation is moderating (slowly from 3.1%) may want to watch what happens

Political - Gordan Brown is now PM, famed for his economy another interest rate hike would put a big burden on a nation of people in record levels of personal debt.

I suspect they will raise them.

It was a very close call at the last meeting and the BoE is still feeling burned after having to go cap in hand to the Treasury for not meeting its targets and not acting quickly enough in the past.

We have the BIS clamouring for tighter international monetary policy, and inflation figures which, though eased slightly, are still consistently above the banks long term goals.

In terms of the housing market there does not seem to be an imminent sign of collapse even though consumer credit continues to hit all time highs. House prices have continued to rise due to excess demand which will not let up in the short term because more families are created each year than homes are built.

Consumer credit is the only area where interest rate hikes could have a significant adverse effect, however I don't believe we are only 0.25% away from a credit crisis.

I know. Im not expecting to act on news. Im just saying i prefer to wait to that last "up breath" minutes prior the annoucement and then short the thing at any price (with good SL of course) with good or bad previous news from US, but from there, after any possible surprises are ended.

CPI

3.1 / 2.8 / 2.5

Statements previous the last rate hike:

"We expect the CPI to drop to 2 until the end of the year."

Last move from BOE: Hold ("we will wait to see"- BoE)

Last CPI move after BOE hold: Drop

What do you think?

forgot about that! yeah, you're absolutely correct - LIBOR is over 5.50%. could sway things, but i have my doubts...nice to see a slightly more generalized discussion here (not that i mind focusing just on technicals). so much to digest today! but still short, and waiting for .9730

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6244024.stm

News gonna tell, but breach of 9963 is a false breakout to me.

seems you may have been right

The important question is the market pricing in another rate hike to 5.75%

Remember back in April talk of a double rate hike due to spiralling inflation led market to price in 2 rate hikes. 5.25% - 5.75%. This gave us a top price of 2.0133.

...on second thoughts, you could be correct! {now at .9980}

went short @ 9980. sl=manual.

What "sl=manual" means? You gonna punch buyers that show up?

that move up just before news time was a bit iffy, leaked numbers or pure speculation?

out BE.

At that time there was also an US rate cut in the air. Right?

That cut isnt priced in this days like it was before.

It might go up anyway but after 300 pip rise on hike rumour, even if it goes up.. whats up with the greed? And what for?

that was the idea.

Money and Violence, that's cliché. But I like it