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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #15,981
  • Jun 27, 2007 4:44am Jun 27, 2007 4:44am
not for long - down we go
  • #15,982
  • Jun 27, 2007 4:50am Jun 27, 2007 4:50am
Quoting free4440273
not for long - down we go
what about the news?
  • #15,983
  • Jun 27, 2007 4:53am Jun 27, 2007 4:53am
news?
  • #15,984
  • Jun 27, 2007 4:55am Jun 27, 2007 4:55am
Quoting free4440273
news?
CBI Distributive Trades Realized
Durable Goods
  • #15,985
  • Jun 27, 2007 4:57am Jun 27, 2007 4:57am
Quoting gurugs
Hi every body,

As you are aware that Mr. Blair will resign as a prime minister of England.

does any body want to share his/her views that would it be positive for GBP or Negative. Will GBP maintain bull bias. or it will be down.???

I think this is help for everybody so please share the comments.

GOD HELPS THOSE WHO HELP OTHERS.
A joyous day for many, should be alot of money spent on alcohol and parties in celebration of finally being rid of him. This will help consumer spending and retail sales which will give a boost to the pound. However it will contribute to a high CPI number which in turn will mean BOE raising interest rates so bullish for pound.

To be honest not much effect I think as old Gordan Brown is taking over and he was the chancellor so had more input into business and economy than the prime minister. Did you know that he has not been voted in as prime minister by the people of the country, he automatically gets the job without a vote
  • #15,986
  • Jun 27, 2007 4:57am Jun 27, 2007 4:57am
Christ, forgot about that! but then again...
  • #15,987
  • Jun 27, 2007 5:03am Jun 27, 2007 5:03am
news out for GBP at 11am much worse than expected
  • #15,988
  • Jun 27, 2007 5:03am Jun 27, 2007 5:03am
...this just gets better! .9730 now becoming a realistic target
  • #15,989
  • Jun 27, 2007 5:10am Jun 27, 2007 5:10am
chart with fib levels, 23.6% has been hit earlier today and we have seen a bounce up. Price around 1.9930.

Im looking for price to break through this level which would mean 1.9875 next.

All this movement seems to be related to the carry trades being sold off and not so much the $ gaining strength it seems. Looking at USD/CHF there has been no movement on this pair (yet?) and normally when $ gains this pair would move.

Look at GBP/JPY and see if 244 is broken (this is a 38% fib level coincidentally) this will be key for further downside in cable IMO
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gb.gif Size: 8 KB
  • #15,990
  • Edited 5:26am Jun 27, 2007 5:13am | Edited 5:26am
hmmm, nice chart actually - clear and precise. i still think short-term we are headed down.
if we go down to .9875 as you say, then i see a big, swift move down to .9730. only then do i see a pullback toward 2.0000. but i could be wrong...
  • #15,991
  • Jun 27, 2007 5:39am Jun 27, 2007 5:39am
I had a short signal today but I didn't enter cause price didn't came up to my entry price, but if I was in I would by now had moved my SL to BE

possible dangerous reversal pattern on cable developing stay cautious... this could turn out to be an up day...
  • #15,992
  • Jun 27, 2007 5:43am Jun 27, 2007 5:43am
If you are looking at fibs (or anything else for that matter) on a daily chart, then you have to wait for the daily chart to close to form an opinion.

Just my opinion, anyways.
  • #15,993
  • Jun 27, 2007 5:45am Jun 27, 2007 5:45am
Quoting camisa
I had a short signal today but I didn't enter cause price didn't came up to my entry price, but if I was in I would by now had moved my SL to BE

possible dangerous reversal pattern on cable developing stay cautious... this could turn out to be an up day...
...that's looking like a distinct possibility. but then south
  • #15,994
  • Jun 27, 2007 5:51am Jun 27, 2007 5:51am
Quoting SeekingLight
Announced by a moon phase or another constellation?
Serious question, if you want you can reply via PM.
If you have any links / resources / reading material on this I'd be interested as well.

4h PB -> trendline loss, move towards 38.2% and possibly more. Don't tell anyone, but I'm secretly expecting a 1% chance of either a 1.97xx revisit or new lows below the 1.9700 area. Most likely not today however and things would have to get real ugly first. Still, would be fun to see.
Is that the 4h bar for the 5am to 9am (est) timeframe because if it is I have a low of 1.9963 which is close to the previous bars low of 1.9955

If that is the case, don't believe it then is a pinbar. Moot point now I guess since many bars have elapsed.
  • #15,995
  • Jun 27, 2007 5:57am Jun 27, 2007 5:57am
Quoting SunTrader
If you are looking at fibs (or anything else for that matter) on a daily chart, then you have to wait for the daily chart to close to form an opinion.

Just my opinion, anyways.
Sure, but its easier to post a day chart than an hourly chart to show the fib levels
  • #15,996
  • Jun 27, 2007 5:58am Jun 27, 2007 5:58am
Bad news? Then up...
  • #15,997
  • Jun 27, 2007 6:03am Jun 27, 2007 6:03am
Im sorry, can you explain something to me?

Lets see...

Unless the market starts to price in a rake hike from US with this week and next week data, why should the price go down to 97? Or in other words, why the market should "unprice in" right now the possible UK hike that drove the pair to 2.0000?

Technicalls may say.. "Well the rate hike uptrend just died/ended". But correct me if im wrong! Until July 5th (rate annoucement), is more possible that the price goes sideways/consolidation on hourlies, than start a new downtrend to 97s, forgetting completly the recent uptrend motives. Dont you even consider the major fibs in the way? I dont get it.

Fibs can be broken of course but with the help of bad sentiment/rate hike unprice.

Anyway, i personally believe that they will not rise the rates, and the price will indeed get down. But with expected bad news for the USD, im guessing is better to wait for ALL the info to be priced in the market and then in the R day, Short the "interest rate hold", with much more possible technical resistance areas than today. We are talking about hundreds of pips with little SL. In my view, im talking about a mounth goal achieved in one day. Im patient.

I dont know. Any of this sound reasonable?
  • #15,998
  • Jun 27, 2007 6:11am Jun 27, 2007 6:11am
Quoting cesarnc
(...) unless we're seeing a false breakout here, which is way to soon to predict....
False breakout down shaping up
  • #15,999
  • Jun 27, 2007 6:47am Jun 27, 2007 6:47am
...hmmm, i don't see that myself.
  • #16,000
  • Edited 7:20am Jun 27, 2007 6:51am | Edited 7:20am
Quoting Warper
Im sorry, can you explain something to me?

Lets see...

Unless the market starts to price in a rake hike from US with this week and next week data, why should the price go down to 97? Or in other words, why the market should "unprice in" right now the possible UK hike that drove the pair to 2.0000?

Technicalls may say.. "Well the rate hike uptrend just died/ended". But correct me if im wrong! Until July 5th (rate annoucement), is more possible that the price goes sideways/consolidation on hourlies, than start a new downtrend to 97s, forgetting completly the recent uptrend motives. Dont you even consider the major fibs in the way? I dont get it.

Fibs can be broken of course but with the help of bad sentiment/rate hike unprice.

Anyway, i personally believe that they will not rise the rates, and the price will indeed get down. But with expected bad news for the USD, im guessing is better to wait for ALL the info to be priced in the market and then in the R day, Short the "interest rate hold", with much more possible technical resistance areas than today. We are talking about hundreds of pips with little SL. In my view, im talking about a mounth goal achieved in one day. Im patient.

I dont know. Any of this sound reasonable?
I'm not disagreeing with the above. but when you talk of 'expected bad news for the USD', that's all relative. far worse for the GBP as far as I'm concerned. and as you say, and as i have said in previous days, BofE very unlikely to raise rates. If the Fed doesn't raise tomorrow, they will soon enough - and the bond market knows it
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