Cable Update (GBPUSD)

I have no problem with Garrick personally, his ideas and analysis are always welcome. He is a regular here. His friends were dicks tho so they had it comin

i like your revisionist history that england saved its ass all by itself LOL

at the bottom of this quote is an article of when japan intervened...they did it 3 times with others help cause the dollar was strong and people smelled blood in the streets because of truss



so you say the BOE saved itself on sept 22nd cause the japanese and chinese and usa just happened to pick that day out of the blue

i dont think gold and GU and every other pair reversed that month all because of englands bank acting all alone LOL... post those dates on any chart you want and see how those charts reacted...even gold bottomed that day


Last year, Japan's Finance Ministry intervened with roughly $68 billion to prop up the yen on three separate days: Sept. 22, Oct. 21 and Oct. 24 — as the currency notched 150 against the greenback, weakening to levels not seen since 1990. Interventions are usually unannounced and consist of the central bank buying large amounts of yen using billions in dollar reserves.....from cnbc

im done with this stupid discussion so im not gona waste time looking for the charts i posted last year outlining how japan and others helped the BOE

just kidding you LOL


where you been for so long?

Here...

This was written more then a year ago. Predictions from Saxo talking about USD/JPY at 200.
Other predictions back in the day:

With oil at $150, Saudis buy Champions League franchise
Emboldened by surging crude oil prices, Saudi Arabia makes waves on the international stage, as Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman manages to create a World Champions League, after buying the UEFA Champion League franchise.

World hit by major health crisis as obesity drugs make people stop exercising
As the world embraces GLP-1 obesity wonder drugs, the people next in line to get a prescription stop caring about dieting and exercising, figuring that the drug will later solve all of their weight-related health problems.

The end of capitalism in the USA
With the US budget deficit spiraling above 10% of the GDP, the government is desperate to foster demand for US Treasuries. Under intense pressure from the White House, Congress makes income from government bonds tax-free.

Generative AI deepfake triggers a national security crisis
After a criminal group deploys the most deceptive AI deepfake ever seen, generative AI becomes a national security threat. With public distrust soaring, governments crack down with harsh new laws, puncturing the AI hype.

Deficit countries form ‘Rome Club’ to negotiate trade terms
To fix the divergence in the global trade and financial system, the largest deficit countries unite to negotiate new world trade terms. For surplus countries, the reset of the global economic model is a painful adjustment.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr wins the 2024 US presidential election
As discontent with Biden and Trump rises to fever pitch, Robert F. Kennedy Jr sees his support rising inexorably in the polls. On November 5, Kennedy wins the US presidential election, ushering in a new era in US politics.

Japan’s ‘lucky 7%’ GDP growth rate forces BoJ to abandon yield curve control
Stepping up Japan's economic transformation in 2024, PM Kishida brings in a host of populist policies to boost domestic demand. As the GDP growth rate hits 7%, the BoJ is forced to abandons its yield curve control policy.

Luxury demand plunges as EU goes Robin Hood, introducing wealth tax
As people wake up to how little tax Europe’s billionaires are actually paying, the EU Commission implements a wealth tax of 2%. The tax sends shockwaves through Europe's luxury industry, with luxury giant LVMH plunging 40%.

This was an interesting article about Gold... it didn't happen in 2023. though...

Summary: "2023 is the year that the market finally discovers that inflation is set to remain ablaze for the foreseeable future." - Ole S. Hansen.
In 2023, gold finally finds its footing after a challenging 2022, in which many investors were left frustrated by its inability to rally even as inflation surged to a 40-year high. It turns out that the key in holding down gold’s potential was the market’s mistaken consensus bet that inflation would prove transitory. Central banks largely anticipate that inflation will fall back to target within a mere couple of years, and even the market’s own forward pricing of inflation risks predicts the same. And how was gold supposed to rally in 2022, especially in strong USD terms, if you can get well over 4.0 percent on a 5-year US treasury at a time when 5-year forward inflation rates are priced to drop below 2.5 percent?

2023 is the year that the market finally discovers that inflation is set to remain ablaze for the foreseeable future. Fed policy tightening and quantitative tightening drives a new snag in US treasury markets that forces new sneaky ‘measures’ to contain treasury market volatility that really amount to new de facto quantitative easing. And with the arrival of spring, China decides to pivot more fully away from its zero-COVID policy, touting effective treatment and maybe even a new vaccine. Chinese demand unleashed again drives a profound new surge in commodity prices, sending inflation soaring, especially in increasingly weak USD terms as the Fed’s new softening on its stance punishes the greenback. Under-owned gold rips higher on the sea-change reset in forward real interest rate implications of this new backdrop.

In 2023, the hardest of currencies receives a further blast of support from three directions. First, the geopolitical backdrop of an increasing war economy mentality of self reliance and minimizing holdings of foreign FX reserves, preferring gold. Second, the massive investment in new national security priorities, including energy sources, the energy transition, and supply chains. Third, rising global liquidity as policy makers move to avoid a debacle in debt markets as a mild real growth recession (certainly not in nominal prices, however!) takes hold. Gold slices through the double top near USD 2,075 as if it wasn’t there and hurtles to at least USD 3,000 next year.
Market impact: Spot gold rises above $3,000 per ounce and the VanEck Junior Gold Miners index quadruples in value.

Some of the predictions may still very well happen. It was an out of the ordinary read back in the day for which reason it stayed in my head for so long...
That USD/JPY at 200 however ridiculous it sounds... is possible!?!? I don't know...

There's one thing that bothers me... even if BoJ raises rates and abandons negative rates, the gap would still be 5% between the Fed's rates and BoJ's rates... so, in reality nothing major would happen, objectively speaking. Difference in rates would still be large even if the Fed cut rates three times this year.

It's kind of impossible to say what'll happen...

USDZAR is actually tradeable if you have 100K account and you are looking for Long term targets because that pair does move like hell,
and don't forget the Swap that is also big factor its like YEN carry trading some brokers do offer great Swaps more then 150 pips even for a day and negative swap will go up to 250 pips
so be careful Good luck first try it in Demo,
and before even in demo don't forget to check the Brokers swap on their website,
icmarkets Fpmarkets Pepperstone etc are fair brokers for Swaps i have traded with more then 17 brokers my self,
some don't even pay half swap and charge double,
anyways good luck

Fed Minutes
MOST OFFICIALS NOTED RISKS OF CUTTING TO QUICKLY

My uni schedule is so hectic, when the uni opened i fleed from the forum and with the semester i am back, but i am on borrowed time since there's not much holiday left

I was still lurking around the news section and the calendar but couldn't create the time for the forum

that authors a little looney LOL

just look at monthly UJ and draw some resistence levels is prolly the safest way to approach the yen...i dont think the japanese will do anything except mtalk till price gets above 158

make a list of the people who say BOJ will intervene at or below their last intervention in sept22nd 2022 which was more about saving the pound no matter ewhat the revisionists try saying so youll know who to ignore in future LOL

the BOJ intervened at a minor resistence point on the monthly chart and didnt get much bang for their yen since the dollar already back to that level ... seems pretty dumb of the japanese to have picked 152 to short dollar on monthly chart


if i was in charge id wait for price to get to the black line so id get maximum value intervening at resistence like that

short 2637...not much of a reaction like i said this morning LOL


moved my tp to 2580 on all shorts

If i am not missing something, FOMC minutes seems to be tilted to the hawkish side. However, market went up.

The minutes is a summary of the actual FOMC event from 2/3 weeks ago. I assume that because there wasn’t anything new we saw a spike up?

so far daily range only 40 pips compared to the usual minutes daily range of 60/70 pips LOL
im goin out for the rest of the day...gona let my shorts ride and may short on daily close if bearish cause the kneejerk momentum buyers need to cry some

We saw a spike up as price was manipulated and the market tried to suck in buyers at the higher prices.

I didn't see something surprising in the minutes. Especially for the bulls. Only thing that i can think of is a market relief?

And the ugly range continues... we'll see if the price will move some tomorrow since there are a lot of news. However, I don't expect much to happen until March, sadly.

Thank you Whale,
I have this thing about me, and that is Karma. I believe that if you are good and kind to people you will receive good luck or deeds in return and it has been crux in my trading success. This has been my motivation in hanging around here. Unfortunately it is not to be and I await Karma to decide its fate.
Cheers.

Sum light

it’s back to the area before the event.. let’s see if we can have a bullish close. Will keep TP area around the 12670 area