Disliked{quote} No effect really. COT report released this report on the 16th of Jan, this when GIU went 100pips lower and retraced back. Trade remained in range. No signs of Non Commercial bullish bias. More neutral I would say. New report is out on Tuesday 23rd.Ignored
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//========// BRITISH POUND - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS Code-096742 AS OF: 2024-01-09 - Non-Commercial Long: 60,684 contracts - Non-Commercial Short: 39,950 contracts - Non-Commercial Spreading: 8,002 contracts - Changes in Non-Commercial Long from Jan 2, 2024: -1,110 contracts - Changes in Non-Commercial Short from Jan 2, 2024: -6,639 contracts - Changes in Non-Commercial Spreading from Jan 2, 2024: -98 contracts - Percent of Open Interest represented by Non-Commercial Long: 35.2% - Percent of Open Interest represented by Non-Commercial Short: 23.1% - Percent of Open Interest represented by Non-Commercial Spreading: 4.6% - Number of Non-Commercial traders in Long positions: 22 - Number of Non-Commercial traders in Short positions: 20 - Number of Non-Commercial traders in Spreading positions: 14 //========// BRITISH POUND - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS Code-096742 AS OF: January 16, 2024 - Non-Commercial Long: 66,230 contracts - Non-Commercial Short: 35,299 contracts - Non-Commercial Spreading: 9,482 contracts - Changes in Non-Commercial Long from January 9, 2024: 5,546 contracts - Changes in Non-Commercial Short from January 9, 2024: -4,651 contracts - Changes in Non-Commercial Spreading from January 9, 2024: 1,480 contracts - Percent of Open Interest represented by Non-Commercial Long: 36.8% - Percent of Open Interest represented by Non-Commercial Short: 19.6% - Percent of Open Interest represented by Non-Commercial Spreading: 5.3% - Number of Non-Commercial traders in Long positions: 23 - Number of Non-Commercial traders in Short positions: 18 - Number of Non-Commercial traders in Spreading positions: 15 //========//
- Net Bias: While the Non-Commercial COT data signals bullishness, the initial price reaction suggests a more neutral market sentiment.
- Key Findings:
- Non-Commercial net long positions increased, indicating growing optimism.
- However, GIU's price movement after the report suggests a more neutral response.
- Implications:
- GBP may have upside potential, but sentiment shifts could impact price action.
- Monitor economic and political factors that could affect the pound.
- Recommendations:
- Approach GBP with caution, considering both bullish COT signals and potential sentiment shifts.
- Watch for confirmation of bullishness in price action before entering long positions.
Conclusion:
The Non-Commercial COT data suggests a bullish bias for GBP, but market reaction and potential sentiment shifts warrant a more cautious approach. Closely monitor price action, and news flow for further guidance.
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