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Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

  • #11,661
  • Nov 29, 2023 5:06am Nov 29, 2023 5:06am
Parisboy, Dave & Anyone willing to respond.

Have you had any experience with the Market Matrix by the Copan fame? I have the book & it resembles Gann, Delta Phenomenon & Murrey Math. It appears that Delta & Market Matrix could be coded into MT4, MT5 or Trading view, but I've yet to discover anyone who is sharing that software, or even willing to code either one.
Two years ago, I had the Delta turning points (STD) manually plotted on an MT4 chart & they were surprisingly accurate, but it was tiresome manually updating each one. Would appreciate you guys' views on the Market Matrix & the possibility of the coding in MT4, MT5, or Trading View.

Not sure why I even concern myself with these methods as I have my on methods of trading that work for me but am always willing to look at what other traders are doing. When I think of Jim Sloman & Delta the thought comes to mind of "If It Works So Well Why Sell It? Why not trade it? Read that Sloman wanted to raise funds in order to produce a movie, or a documentary. No sure that's factual. The Delta Society in located just a few hours' drive from me & I thought of asking for a meeting with the company representatives to view their products. Murrey & the Robert Prechter product Elliott Wave are also located within several hours drive of me. Got to wonder if either of these has ever truly made a dime trading what they preach. Murrey probably did but I have no evidence of that.

Anyway, enough rambling. Thank you, guys, for your response.
_____________________________________________________
  • #11,662
  • Nov 29, 2023 5:11am Nov 29, 2023 5:11am
Ace, An additional remark : after 25 years of analyzing threads the more people discuss "how to build such tool" the less they explain you how to trade with. Pt ps a sure thisign either of the general inefficiency of the said tool or exceptionally of its confidentiality.

Hurst methodology is confidential.

Murrey's methodology is never discussed outside here and another thread where I met Dave

If you search a little the main question is always " How to build the correct Murrey Lines ?" Never how to trade it ?

Same thing for the Square of XYZ.
  • #11,663
  • Nov 29, 2023 5:12am Nov 29, 2023 5:12am
Quoting parisboy
{quote} As Dave I invested a lot of time and effort but ended nowhere ! IMHO it is a dead end road. It has no analysis capability, no predictive capability, and no trading capability - even in hindsight. Gann never showed us ONE trade done with a Square of X. Gann never described a trade with a Square of Y. No people I know has ever done that on a regular basis. The best you can get is to show that if your Square of X is tuned with the right Initial Point (how do you select this Zero Point ?) and with the operative interval between 2 successive...
Hi Parisboy,
Your last line said it all. I never saw anyone or a thread using Square of Nine & posting their results. A very good point you raise. Thank you for your response. Let me know your thoughts on my last post please. Thank you.
  • #11,664
  • Nov 29, 2023 5:14am Nov 29, 2023 5:14am
Quoting parisboy
Ace, An additional remark : after 25 years of analyzing threads the more people discuss "how to build such tool" the less they explain you how to trade with. Pt ps a sure thisign either of the general inefficiency of the said tool or exceptionally of its confidentiality. Hurst methodology is confidential. Murrey's methodology is never discussed outside here and another thread where I met Dave If you search a little the main question is always " How to build the correct Murrey Lines ?" Never how to trade it ? Same thing for the Square of XYZ.
More thought-provoking points & so true. All talk, hype & no action.
  • #11,665
  • Nov 29, 2023 5:28am Nov 29, 2023 5:28am
Inserted Video
  • #11,666
  • Nov 29, 2023 5:35am Nov 29, 2023 5:35am
About Delta
I never was impressed by Sloman and Wilders. I have a spontaneous defensivereaction when I read something like :
" the most important discovery on the markets "
" DELTA is a revolutionary discovery concerning the underlying nature of all markets".
or "DELTA Secret"

THIS SECRET HAS JUST BEEN REDISCOVERED... (Delta Phenomenon - page 4)
This discovery was absolutely staggering. That all markets are based on this order and therefor e are predictable must rank among the greatest discoveries of all time.

FUTURES TRADERS & MARKET ANALYSTS.THIS IS.. . THE MOST IMPORTANT DISCOVERY EVER MADE ABOUT THE MARKETS. THERE IS PERFECT ORDER BEHIND THE MARKETS... (The Delta Phenomenon - Foreword - page 4)

If you read The Delta Phenomenon again. the technical content seems to me very limited. It is basic financial astrology
linking the Moon (1 Month) the earth and the Sun (1 Year = 12 months)

I was interested in Delta in 1998 / 2000 among other things. I was at that time a little naive but between up to 35.000 $ to send to Welles Wilder and 319 $ to send to Murrey (69 for the "book" and 250 for the EOD Software) I had the good reflex to chose the guy from Nashville.

as far as I remember the "Directors" of the Delta Society (which paid 35.000 $ each then 100.000 $ for the last incumbents for their membership fees ) had a fight about egos and the money .. Situation which was predictable without involving the Moon and the Sun

do you smell the odor of scam ?
  • #11,667
  • Nov 29, 2023 5:40am Nov 29, 2023 5:40am
Right now let's say that I have already read some incoherences

The main one is " Yet DELTA is not cyclic...it is not a cycle phenomenon."

Unfortunately, "Financial Astrology " is mainly a cyclical analysis . When you underline the influence of the Moon and the Sun relatively to the market. You speak of a yearly Cycle - 365 Calendar Days - 256 Trading Days and the Moon is a monthly cycle.

If you take into account the influence of Mercure on the market - you speak of a 88 Calendar days cycle

If you take into account the influence of Venys on the market - you speak of a 225 Calendar days cycle

If you take into account the influence of Mars on the market - you speak of a 687 Calendar days cycle

If you take into account the influence of Jupiter on the market - you speak of a 11,86 years cycle

If you take into account the influence of Saturn on the market - you speak of a 29,44 years cycle
  • #11,668
  • Nov 29, 2023 5:45am Nov 29, 2023 5:45am
I am reading attentively The Delta Phenomenon. I smelled it , but it is true. This Sloman / Wilder pair is very good at taking your money from your pockets.

You know the saying "every minute a sucker is born". That is the case. They sell their "Delta Phenomenon to credulous customers motivated by greed pushing on the button "it exists a Holy Grail"

There is no "Delta Phenomenon"

The "Delta Phenomenon " is nothing else technically than the revamping, reshaping of Hurst's Phasing Analysis in his Cyclitec Course.(1975) Sloman / Wilders just sell to Dummies Hurst's Phasing Analysis under a new package form mixed with Cyclical Astrology spices (the Moon, the Sun)

It is obvious when you read the Gold Analysis ( page 84 to 95) . It is exactly what Hurst showed us in his Cyclitec course .

Wilder applies to Gold his Cyclic Model. Note that every Cyclic thinker or Cycles Analyst has his own specific "model" to differentiate himself from his competitors.

No problem with that. I have mine

But in the real life there is only ONE way to apply a "Cyclic Model" to Market data as there is only one way to draw a Trend Line between 2 Lows or 2 Highs. You can only use different Lows or different Highs .

Hence it is an intellectual scam. Proof is that both Sloman and Wilder know Hurst's work. His book Profit Magic is quoted in Delta Phenomenon

Plus Ray Frechette is a "Director" of Delta Society International.

Who is Ray Frechette - His résumé is explained in the Delta Phenomenon.

RAY FRECHETTE is known world-wide for his analysis and application of cycle theory for both stocks and commodities.

Mr .Frechette began his career in technical analysis working with the legendary Jim Hurst, author of The Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing. Later he bought Hurst's company and founded Cycle Sciences Corporation and for many years published a technical letter remplasizing the cyclic approach to market timing.

Mr.Frechette has presented his technical trading methods and cyclic analysis at more than a hundred seminars in the U.S.and abroad. He is highly respected as a market analyst and for his contributions to the area of technical trading.

Ray Frechette testimony :

When Welles showed me the DELTA phenomenon it immediately became obvious why cycles work well at times and then do not work well at other times. There is no question that DELTA is the most significant discovery yet made about the markets. Nothing else even comes close to it. I have read the type set copy of this brochure and it does not exaggerate the case. DELTA is the basis of market movement.

After studying hundreds of charts and computerized data it is my opinion that the long term aspect of this thing is understated. I believe if the long term DELTA were used only as a filter it would eliminate most lost trades, resulting in doubling the profits of virtually any good automatic trading system.
I still find it hard to believe that what Jim Hurst and I and many others tried so hard to find is actually there—and it is so simple yet so well disguised it couldn't be discovered.

In short we are asked to believe that :

"Delta reveals us the "Hidden Secret of the Markets"
"Delta is not a cyclical method"
" Delta has nothing to do with Hurst Cyclic Model and methods"

Much more strange , Ray Frechette as "Director" of the Delta Society is reputed having paid $35.000 to Sloman and Wilder.

Having bought Hurst's company and "being known world-wide for his analysis and application of cycle theory for both stocks and commodities. " Ray Frechette seems not having observed the close similarity between Delta and Hurst's Phasing Analysis

It took me 5 minutes. I just had to read attentively the Delta Phenomenon and to find the quoted pages.

I will right now unveil to you the real "secret" deeply hidden within the "Delta Phenomenon" :

Frechette became the owner of Hurst works, hence of Hurst's course sold $ 5.000 at the Time (1975) . 10 years later in cooperation with Wilder, Ray Frechette generates enough "buzz" to sell a short version of Hurst Course, kind of Hurst Course for Dummies, for $ 3.500 to the average customer and $ 35.000 to a guy wanted to be a "Director"

These guys are very good to market old tools and methodologies under new names
  • #11,669
  • Nov 29, 2023 5:50am Nov 29, 2023 5:50am
Notice the process :

the ideas are generated by some Jim Sloman - unknown of the public of Technical Analysis until he contacted Wilders to sell him "the hidden secret of the markets" for ...... $ 1.000.000

Welles Wilder brings on the table his financial net and his reputation as the creator of various technical indicators, Average True Range, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), Average Directional Index, and the Parabolic SAR.[2]

average membership $3.500
Director status $35.000 then $100.000 for late comers

to justify the price you can read the argument : " Averaged over the next sixteen years, the annual cost for the DELTA information is about the cost of a good chart service...$319.00 per year."

It is interesting as justification for " give me your money right now"
  • #11,670
  • Nov 29, 2023 5:51am Nov 29, 2023 5:51am
Quoting parisboy
Ace, Une remarque supplémentaire : après 25 ans d'analyse de threads, plus les gens discutent de "comment construire un tel outil", moins ils vous expliquent comment trader. Pt ps cela indique certainement soit l'inefficacité générale dudit outil, soit exceptionnellement sa confidentialité...
Cela décrit exactement votre thread...

Les thread décrivant le pourquoi de vos entrées et sorties sont rarissimes. Les thread expliquant comment construire votre outil sont pléthores. Vos 1000er de threads en live sont tous inutiles si aucun pourquoi n'est expliqué.

S'il est possible d'avoir une idée de votre stratégie, vous n'avez qu'une poignée de personnes qui comprennent réellement ce que vous faites...

Votre thread est très louable néanmoins. Du moins j'imagine.

bons trades
Bottomless wonders spring from simple rules, which are repeated without end
  • #11,671
  • Nov 29, 2023 5:56am Nov 29, 2023 5:56am
Ace more I analyze the "Delta Phenomenon " book more I am amazed by the level of plagiarism of Hurst's book and course and of bullshitting towards the honest naive customer. IMHO It is definitely a commercial scam

As Welles Wilder is really a Technical Analyst who invented some well-known indicators , it does not mean that everything that Wilders write has to be discarded.

IS THERE A STRONG COMMONALITY BETWEEN Welles Wilder's " DELTA PHENOMENON" and Jim Hurst's Cyclic Principles ?

In short "Delta " is basically a general cyclical analysis. Hurst model being itself a specific model (Hurst never alluded about this fact I will elaborate later on this subject)

Wilders camouflaged that Delta is structurally a cyclical analysis by using a vague and primitive influence / confluence of Moon and Sun on the Terrian Stock Market . This is basic " Financial Astrology " tools (whatever you think about it).

Notice that Wilders is too lazy to talk about the planets having a longer Period ( Venus , Jupiter, Saturn ) which are also basic financial astrology tool.

All of Wilders Delta methodology components are a strict decalcomany of Hurst main concepts, principles and tools

Logically as Delta methodology is basically a Phasing Analysis - what are the relative positions of the various cycles at work within Price Action - Wilders transmutes for the Dummies the Principle of Synchronicity - all cycles make their lows at the same time (within the same time period) . Then Wilders transmutes what Hurst calls " a Nest of Lows" into a "Line Up of Delta Turning Points"

The idea is, that when any DELTA turning points line up on or near the same date, it portends a big move.

How to transmute a "Nest of Lows" and the process to build it into a " Line Up of Delta Turning Points" : you just change the label. You do not use the word Cycle Low, you use" Delta Dates"

Now the Long Term Delta (LTD) date will occur in conjunction with one of 2 Medium term Delta (MTD) dates. and each MTD high date will occur in conjunction with one of 2 Intermediate Term Delta (ITD) high dates. So, you see how, by knowing the dates for each timeframe for a particular market, the timing can be dramatically improved over just knowing the longer term timeframe .The easy way to keep up with this is to put the date for each timeframe that is in view (relative to how far into the future your chart is dated) on your chart in different colors. Put the high points at the top of your chart and the low points at the bottom of your chart and it will be obvious when a line-up of DELTA turning points occurs.

Notice that the words Turning Points, Highs, Lows, Pivots have exactly the same meaning and consequences : Trend changes direction

Notice that what Hurst calls " Synchronicity " in his book Profit Magic (1970) was defined by Eward Dewey 20 years before as "Synchrony"

Another plagiarism by Wilders is the concept of "commonality" .

Hurst wrote " Summed cyclicality is a common factor among all stocks. Cyclic commonality expresses as follows :

Existence in all issues
Similar duration
Similar relative magnitude
Time synchronization

I quote Wilders :

FAMILY GROUPS

One of the most interesting things I learned about the DELTA Phenomenon is that commodities or stocks within the same family group have the same DELTA solution!

to be continued soon
  • #11,672
  • Nov 29, 2023 5:58am Nov 29, 2023 5:58am
Its is more and more obvious than Delta Phenomenon is a camouflage, a transmutation, a pale copy of Cyclic analysis in general and specifically of Hurst methodology.

one of the 8 Cyclic principle of Hurst is the Principle of Variation

compare what Welles Wilder writes in 1986 and what Hurst has written in 1970

Wilder (1986) : Nobody's right all the time. Although I've never seen the basic pattern broken, the DELTA turning points sometimes come early and sometimes come late,

Each turning point did not necessarily come on the exact day that it should have,but it was incredibly close.. .within 2 or 3 days in most cases...

Hurst (1970) Price motion is different from issue to issue primarily because of differences in the 75% of underlying fundamentally inspired movement.
deviations from commonality also contribute to differences from issue to issue. The most important such deviations are as follows:

Relative magnitudes and durations of cyclic components differ slightly from issue to issue.
The synchronization is not perfect. A cyclic high or low in one issue will not necessarily occur at exactly the same time as in another.
Several components may tend to dominate in a given issue at a given time, while others may dominate in other issues at the same time
  • #11,673
  • Nov 29, 2023 6:01am Nov 29, 2023 6:01am
Its is more and more obvious than Delta Phenomenon is a camouflage, a transmutation, a pale copy of Cyclic analysis in general and specifically of Hurst methodology. one of the 8 Cyclic principle of Hurst is the Principle of Nominality

compare what Welles Wilder writes in 1986 and what Hurst has written in 1970

Short Term DELTA (STD) every 4 revolutions of the earth, that is every 4 days. (Delta phenomenon (page 70)

We can define the Intermediate Term DELTA in 9 words. markets repeat directly or inversely every 4 lunar months. Delta Phenomenon (page 59)

Therefore, the time between those 2 days is the exact time for one complete interaction of the sun, the moon, and the earth. That time period is exactly 12 lunar months." I suggest that we call the order on this new time frame the Medium Term DELTA (MTD)." Delta Phenomenon (page 66)

Long Term DELTA (LTD) every 4 revolutions of the earth around the sun, that is, every 4 calendar years.

Super Long Term DELTA (SLTD) .every complete total interaction of the sun, moon and earth, that is, .every 19 years and 5 hours. Delta Phenomenon (page 70)

HURST'S (1970) THE NOMINALITY PRINCIPLE

The effect of the variation principle is to force the use of a nominal cyclic duration in the quantification of the cyclic model.
These nominal durations are an element of commonality, and the deviations from these over a given range are the expression of the principle of variation.
The nominal durations of the principal cyclic components are:
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  • #11,674
  • Nov 29, 2023 6:02am Nov 29, 2023 6:02am
Parisboy,
Thank you for your response. You summed everything up nicely. I totally agree.
  • #11,675
  • Nov 29, 2023 6:32am Nov 29, 2023 6:32am
Quoting parisboy
Its is more and more obvious than Delta Phenomenon is a camouflage, a transmutation, a pale copy of Cyclic analysis in general and specifically of Hurst methodology. one of the 8 Cyclic principle of Hurst is the Principle of Nominality compare what Welles Wilder writes in 1986 and what Hurst has written in 1970 Short Term DELTA (STD) every 4 revolutions of the earth, that is every 4 days. (Delta phenomenon (page 70) We can define the Intermediate Term DELTA in 9 words. markets repeat directly or inversely every 4 lunar months. Delta Phenomenon (page...
Seems Murrey jumped on the band wagon as well
But I have no regrets as a (Newbie) you do not know you are entering the
Lions Den until you get bit
TBH found whole experience very interesting in a weird way
Also the bonus although not getting Murrey as cheap as you, it was cheaper in the pub after his seminar

ps
Real bonus Murrey was instrumental in meeting YOU
So how many lessons and how many thousands have you saved me
  • #11,676
  • Nov 29, 2023 6:39am Nov 29, 2023 6:39am
Now that being said
Lets have a refresher course on my favorite Topic
FLD's
  • #11,677
  • Nov 29, 2023 7:18am Nov 29, 2023 7:18am
Quoting OAPDave
Now that being said Lets have a refresher course on my favorite Topic FLD's
I have an interest in those too.
  • #11,678
  • Nov 29, 2023 7:28am Nov 29, 2023 7:28am
Quoting acetrader
{quote} I have an interest in those too.
I use FLD in a different way than the way promoted by David Hickson from Sentient Trader.

I use FLD's mainly as a Trend Following tool and (very) secondarily as a predictive tool for targeting price levels.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pptx 10 FLD FUTURE LINE OF DEMARCATION (1x3) english 42.pptx   3.1 MB | 341 downloads
File Type: pptx 10 FLD FUTURE LINE OF DEMARCATION (2x3) english 42.pptx   3.0 MB | 323 downloads
File Type: pptx 10 FLD FUTURE LINE OF DEMARCATION (3x3) english 42.pptx   4.1 MB | 349 downloads
  • #11,679
  • Nov 29, 2023 7:30am Nov 29, 2023 7:30am
Quoting OAPDave
Looks like Black Friday & Santa are keeping Microsoft happy ? {image} {image}
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  • #11,680
  • Nov 29, 2023 7:45am Nov 29, 2023 7:45am
Quoting OAPDave
{quote} {image}
great Trend Following example from Dave
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