Cable Update (GBPUSD)

we'll see.

Mixed data -> mixed sentiment...

08:29 At some point the idea of interest rates will become a driver, and as usual its all in the timing. The Options market is beginning to price in a 41% chance of a rate HIKE in the States this December. This is in direct defiance to what the investment houses have been promoting. The fallout of this type of idea, just look at the US 10 year for confirmation, could be disasterous. The adjustable rate mortagages are all coming into a repricing zone. With inventories high, and the speculative real estate in such a precarious state, it may not take much to tip the balance toward a full blown recession. There is a lot of meat on this bone*. more to come


*We can BBQ in the meanwhile, for all I care.

Hello,

Can we see a stronger selling pressure from NY after the London session ?

I wouldn't short this now with someone else's money.

this run up if far from being over.

also, no news reports to stop its path from going where it wants to until Thurs. and that might even help the cable go higher .

the USD is losing grounds against all other currencies except the CAD....but they don't count ! haha

We have a triple top on the 4Hr chart and a close above the 200 sma.

we had a similar set up back starting on March 20th. with a triple top.
and we know what happened after that......the big run up into the 2's.

Am out in loss and undecided. I dont like the chances of a hard push up.

I'm up from 9859 & 9864
and it just hit a buy stop I had set @ 9892.
so I'm going to set my trailing stops and enjoy this ride this a.m.

I think the Factoryo rders data was leaked, its what im hearing from unconfirmed sources anyway...?

still have my longs open as well. i don't see any indication of it backing down from this level as well. atm anyway.

ohh yeah....lets ride this wave !

is this a question or a statement ?

is it s a "?" or a "!" lol

it was an uncertainty.

could be a sweet ride.

or not.

Dollar Tumbles, Correction Done?

Dollar is seen weaker against Euro earlier today after Eurozone PPI came in stronger than expected but the weakness spreads across the board when markets enter into the US session. Lower than expected factory orders in Apr is giving little help to the greenback. The lack of sustainable reactions to last week's positive data is a cause in triggering traders to ligtening dollar positions. On the other hand, overnight's 7.7% fall in the Chinese stock market is seen as another reason as US stocks followed to open lower and in turn triggered some withdrawal from dollar based assets. But based on the relatively steadiness in yen crosses, it's a little doubtful.
Anyway, technically speaking, today's fall in dollar gives out a serious alert that the correction started in Apr has probably ended, with GBP/USD led the markets with a relatively stronger rebound last week and USD/JPY could have also topped in short term. EUR/USD was support above an important near term support while USD/CHF rally was limited by a trend line resistance. Focus will turn to ISM Services tomorrow but it will really take a super strong reading to give dollar a boost based on current sentiments.
EUR/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3406; (P) 1.3434; (R1) 1.3475; More
EUR/USD's rebound from 1.3391 extended further to as high as 1.3499 in early US session. Break of 1.3477 resistance argues that the fall from 1.3681 has already completed at 1.3391 with bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI. Moreover, the fact that 100% projection target of 1.3681 to 1.3461 from 1.3609 at 1.3389 was almost met add much credence to the case that fall from 1.3681 is merely a correction. This is also supported by 1.3364 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2865 to 1.3681 at 1.3369) remains intact.
Having said that, further rally is now expected to be seen towards short term falling trend line (now at 1.3531 first) and then 1.3609. Break will encourage further rally to retest 1.3681 high. Meanwhile, below 1.3430 support will turn intraday outlook consolidative again. But sustained break of 1.3364 cluster support is needed to confirm underlying bearishness.
In the bigger picture, even though another high above 1.3681 could now be seen, risk of medium term reversal is still high. As discussed before, medium term up trend from 1.1639 is interpreted as having first move completed with three waves up to 1.2978, subsequent sideway consolidation completed at 1.2483. Rise from 1.2483 is treated as resumption of the whole up trend from 1.1639. With such interpretation, we'd expect risk of medium term reversal to increase significantly after EUR/USD met resistance zone between 1.3668 and 100% projection of 1.1639 to 1.2978 from 1.2483 at 1.3822. Hence, focus is now on reversal signals.
On the downside, decisive break of 1.3364 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2865 to 1.3681 at 1.3369) is needed to confirm a medium term top is made. More importantly, with bearish divergence condition in daily MACD and RSI, this will warn that the whole rally from 1.2483 has also completed, and, so is the whole up trend from 1.1639. Focus will then be back to medium term rising channel support (now at 1.3049).

http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...r20070604b.gif

GBP/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.9783; (P) 1.9803; (R1) 1.9843; More
Cable's rise from 1.9733 extends further today as expected and is now pressing 1.9899 reistance. At this point, intraday bias will remain on the upside as long as 1.9860 minor support holds. Break of short term falling trend line (now at 1.9919) will encourage further rebound to 1.9956/58 cluster resistance (61.8% retracement of 2.0132 to 1.9676 at 1.9958 and 100% projection fo 1.9676 to 1.9899 from 1.9733 at 1.9956) first and then a retest of 2.0132 high. On the downside, touching of 1.9860 will turn intraday outlook consolidative first but a break below 1.9768 support is needed to indicate rebound from 1.9676 has completed. Otherwise, further rise should still be seen after brief consolidation.
In the bigger picture, risk of medium term reversal remains high even though a retest of 2.0132 high could now be seen. Firstly, the whole up trend from 1.7047 is not clearly impulsive. One interpretation is that rally from 1.7047 ended with three waves up to 1.9024. Subsequent correction ended at 1.8090. Rally from 1.8090 has already met mentioned target of 100% projection of 1.7047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067. Secondly, regardless of the larger trend, rise from 1.8090 can be interpreted as being a five wave sequence with first wave ended at 1.9142, second at 1.8517, third at 1.9913 and fourth at 1.9183. The channeling property supports this interpretation too. In such case, the fifth wave rally from 1.9183 has also met target of 61.8% projection of 1.8517 to 1.9913 from 1.9183 at 2.0046 too. With bearish divergence condition remains in weekly MACD and RSI, as well as Daily MACD and key 2.0106 resistance (92 high) not decisively taken out, 2.0132 could be the important medium term top already.
On the downside, firm break of the medium term rising channel support (now at 1.9634) will indicate that the whole rally from 1.8090 has completed and add much credence to the case that an important medium term top is already formed and put focus to 1.9183 low. However, sustained trading above mentioned 2.0106 resistance will dampen the above interpretation and indicates that underlying bullishness in cable is much stronger then we thought. Further medium term rally should then be seen towards 61.8% projection of 1.3680 (01 low) to 1.9554 (05 high) from 1.7047 (05 low) at 2.0677.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...p20070604b.gif

Today, the bulls have taken full advantage of limited news on offer and a variety of mixed indirect influences to take cable above the 9900 mark.

For me, the down trend channel chart attached depicts the short-term break out opportunity that now exists due to the tactical trading that has taken place today. I don't think the diamond bear breakout discussed earlier will materialise now (at least not from that particular setup).

IMO, if close is above 9900 then the bulls rule in the short-term and the upwards trend recommences.

But as ever, we shall see...

Well, the bulls will have to work damn hard to get over 9930 right now.

overbought to extremes on everytime frame below weekly from here.. If it goes up, it will be capped.

Am now considering a re-short order at 9930 for 9690.

This Monster got to its satisfaction!
Interest rate hike for EUR & GBP allready priced. So, no room left for heading up but, may be a few pips if the retail sale come higher than expected.


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The keys of this week is 1.9913 as i mentioned, if broken we might see 2.+++, and 1.9913 was broken today, so this is a signal to go long, but I won't go long now, since it won't reach the 2.++++ today, so I will wait till it go down to 1.9868, if not reached so I will go long from any price between 1.9868-1.9900 will try to catch best price, Monday is the key also for the week, since we couldn't reach 1.9807 today so it won't be broken till the end of the week, so this week cable is going upward playing in range (above 1.9807 - 2.++++)