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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #762,501
  • Jul 30, 2023 3:21pm Jul 30, 2023 3:21pm
Quoting SFundamental
{quote} I should have written a better post. I was referring to the Australian economy. There are less things to monitor. Ultimately it is a case of pairing up one currency with negative news against another with positive news at a high level and vice versa) We saw this last week with the AUDJPY. There was a miss on CPI, PPI in Australia Whereas there was positive news on the Yen (regarding YCC). The only issue with this is that sometimes the liquidity levels can cause issues The Aussie is the slang used for AUDUSD if I recall -
Yes, that is a common slang term for AUDUSD. But your post was painting some broad strokes, so it was not clear if you actually meant AUDUSD or more broadly, the currency.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #762,502
  • Jul 30, 2023 3:30pm Jul 30, 2023 3:30pm
Quoting Fx3423454
{quote} Short AUDCHF looks promising. I'll be shorting it tomorrow. Easy to predict the trend of fundamental news. But it's hard to predict volatility, whipsaws, etc. Also, usually the data is priced in so it all comes down to surprise data which can go either way. Seems like there are only a few reliable news events to trade.
I like changes in interest rate bias with congruent data best. Lets see what the RBA come with.
The SNB has a meeting in September - I have that marked on my calendar
Look ahead, Macro=Direction, Levels & Structure = Entry
  • #762,503
  • Jul 30, 2023 3:31pm Jul 30, 2023 3:31pm
Quoting DrDave
{quote} Yes, that is a common slang term for AUDUSD. But your post was painting some broad strokes, so it was not clear if you actually meant AUDUSD or more broadly, the currency.
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  • #762,504
  • Jul 30, 2023 3:33pm Jul 30, 2023 3:33pm
Quoting SFundamental
{quote} I like changes in interest rate bias with congruent data best. Lets see what the RBA come with. The SNB has a meeting in September - I have that marked on my calendar
So, buying the rumor and selling the news?
Trade at your own risk.
  • #762,505
  • Jul 30, 2023 3:35pm Jul 30, 2023 3:35pm
Quoting SFundamental
We have had a b shape on volume/market profile GU on Friday after a down move - and that usually is bullish. Unfortunately- banks are bearish - and just had a look at options pricing for Monday - pretty negative. Had a quick check their does not seem to be anything that really stands out in respect of book balancing- but be careful at 2pm (UK time) There was a lot of volume at that cash rate meeting on Thursday - so if they want to sell it off again - that could be a target. Thinking about the Aussie - they have had a recent miss on retail sales,...
Looking to short aussie chief above 5800 if i can get an entry for a 100pip drop or thereabouts. Time will tell if i get it right or not.
PS, dont follow me anyone reading this post. If i get my A$$ handed to me its my A$$ not yours
  • #762,506
  • Jul 30, 2023 3:43pm Jul 30, 2023 3:43pm
GBPUSD price action on the daily time frame turned sideways on Friday after bulls resisted the bearish surge to the 1.27800 minor horizontal support area. As the technical impulse favours bears more than bulls, we may see a southward continuation in the early part of this week.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

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Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #762,507
  • Jul 30, 2023 3:48pm Jul 30, 2023 3:48pm
Quoting SFundamental
{quote} I think trading the Aussie - is the easiest currency pair to trade. China has a major effect on the Aussie. Issues over Taiwan, the commercial property market and trade issues with the West all playing on sentiment. Also iron ore forecasts don't look great.
NZDCHF might be even better short.
Trade at your own risk.
  • #762,508
  • Jul 30, 2023 3:49pm Jul 30, 2023 3:49pm
Quoting KeenPips
GBPUSD price action on the daily time frame turned sideways on Friday after bulls resisted the bearish surge to the 1.27800 minor horizontal support area. As the technical impulse favours bears more than bulls, we may see a southward continuation in the early part of this week. I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper. KP {image}
Don't worry, it will still trap plenty of bulls soon enough.
Trade at your own risk.
  • #762,509
  • Jul 30, 2023 3:50pm Jul 30, 2023 3:50pm
https://assets.faireconomy.media/nfs...r1531383_1.gif karankeni DM you
  • #762,510
  • Jul 30, 2023 4:03pm Jul 30, 2023 4:03pm
LETS DO IT!!!!
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How to succeed in zero sum game?
  • #762,511
  • Jul 30, 2023 4:05pm Jul 30, 2023 4:05pm
Quoting Fx3423454
{quote} So, buying the rumor and selling the news?
That is a great trade - first time I think I have ever seen someone on here mention it.

I like to be fully prep'd before taking a trade. In relation to the Aussie - I'm not. Also its at 5.30 in the morning UK time.
But if they sell off - and we get a pullback into the Frankfurt/London - I will probably look to short it.
Look ahead, Macro=Direction, Levels & Structure = Entry
  • #762,512
  • Jul 30, 2023 4:47pm Jul 30, 2023 4:47pm
Westpac (who I rate) are saying that the RBA will probably take a hike off the table (September)
Look ahead, Macro=Direction, Levels & Structure = Entry
  • #762,513
  • Jul 30, 2023 4:55pm Jul 30, 2023 4:55pm
Quoting Fx3423454
{quote} Don't worry, it will still trap plenty of bulls soon enough.
I certainly agree, it may go north on the long term
  • #762,514
  • Jul 30, 2023 5:02pm Jul 30, 2023 5:02pm
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  • #762,515
  • Jul 30, 2023 5:27pm Jul 30, 2023 5:27pm
Quoting SFundamental
Westpac (who I rate) are saying that the RBA will probably take a hike off the table (September)
Do you think they will hike by 25 bps or pause? I think 25 bps looks more probable
You have to have an IQ higher than 90 to interact with this user.
  • #762,516
  • Jul 30, 2023 5:27pm Jul 30, 2023 5:27pm
Quoting SFundamental
Westpac (who I rate) are saying that the RBA will probably take a hike off the table (September)
I'm not surprised, and I think more countries will eventually start doing this while the U.S. keeps rates higher for longer.

Most countries stock indices are too weak to endure high rates for too long. But the U.S. is in slightly better shape.
Trade at your own risk.
  • #762,517
  • Jul 30, 2023 5:29pm Jul 30, 2023 5:29pm
CADJPY short from open.Target 50-100 pips.
well i’ll lock it at 50 and let it run..

sl friday close
You have an IQ lower than 90 if you interact with this user.
  • #762,518
  • Jul 30, 2023 5:35pm Jul 30, 2023 5:35pm
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Cam Levels - https://www.livecharts.co.uk/Members...rex_pivots.php
  • #762,519
  • Jul 30, 2023 5:49pm Jul 30, 2023 5:49pm
selling above 2860 to 2880 will bring down the price to 2775 today.
Intraday only.
  • #762,520
  • Jul 30, 2023 6:04pm Jul 30, 2023 6:04pm
Quoting Nordling
{quote} Do you think they will hike by 25 bps or pause? I think 25 bps looks more probable
If you read the statement by the RBA - there are 4 things that they are looking at

  1. Global economy- US seem to be not too bad - although Europe is a mess
  2. Labour- this has tightened further
  3. Inflation - this has dropped and beat expected but is still high- ie 6% (should be 2-3%). (Also commodity prices are up- wheat & oil)
  4. Household expenditure

Also risk reversals are positive on the Aussie

Pasted image 1690535475519.png (1358×634) (thomsonreuters.com)

I would be surprised - if we do not have a hike.

Come what may - I will be trading a pullback at London

Look ahead, Macro=Direction, Levels & Structure = Entry
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