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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #762,481
  • Jul 30, 2023 11:02am Jul 30, 2023 11:02am
Quoting Fardeen1209
Week ahead outlook {image} Monday - last day of the month and Quarter.
Fardeen, a little correction. Last day of the first month of the third quarter.
Cheers.
Trade to trade another day
  • #762,482
  • Jul 30, 2023 11:07am Jul 30, 2023 11:07am
Quoting Wavegarrick
{quote} Fardeen, a little correction. Last day of the first month of the third quarter. Cheers.
Thanks for the rectification sir, not yet look at my quaterly calender
Starting with the chart first to see clear technical overview then move to the fundamental
More time in the market, does not mean you trade better!
  • #762,483
  • Jul 30, 2023 11:11am Jul 30, 2023 11:11am
Quoting T721
Anyway guys, am outta here for now. Gotta pick a friend up in 1hr. Hopefully get a ride or bj out of it. You never know but gotta try
T is on da mission Have fun mate!
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  • #762,484
  • Edited 1:49pm Jul 30, 2023 11:23am | Edited 1:49pm
Quoting GEfx
A few thoughts about the G$. Last week, we anticipated a retracement before a continuation of the up move was possible. That retracement was expected and traded. This week, anticipating one of two things: a continuation to the upside, or a continuation to the downside. FAs from last week favor down, but upcoming FAs may disagree. Be prepared for both eventualities, and trade with care. {image}
Last week the message was to be prepared for an up move or a down move...and both turned out to be correct, although limited moves in both direction with the G$ ending the week about where it started. The round-trip move did use my target as its destination up and it's bounce point, better trafter the FAs on Thursday. Not a bad trading week.

As for this week, chart is below, and as with last week, I'm prepared for a move in either direction, with an important GBP FA on Thursday. Trading targets noted on the chart. After my chart work this morning, I am wondering if the GA and EA are better trading opportunities to start the week. Good trading!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #762,485
  • Jul 30, 2023 11:46am Jul 30, 2023 11:46am
We have had a b shape on volume/market profile GU on Friday after a down move - and that usually is bullish.
Unfortunately- banks are bearish - and just had a look at options pricing for Monday - pretty negative.
Had a quick check their does not seem to be anything that really stands out in respect of book balancing- but be careful at 2pm (UK time)
There was a lot of volume at that cash rate meeting on Thursday - so if they want to sell it off again - that could be a target.
Thinking about the Aussie - they have had a recent miss on retail sales, PPI and CPI- implied vol is higher than Cable.
Just thinking if they will squeeze it lower. Obviously, structure and volume is important.
Some levels of interest
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Look ahead, Macro=Direction, Levels & Structure = Entry
  • #762,486
  • Jul 30, 2023 11:55am Jul 30, 2023 11:55am
What da problem with AUD?
Does China economy (its biggest trading partners) putting pressure on the AUD or oil prices, something?

Any comments are welcomed.
Just start trading AUD couple weeks ago. Its fundamental looks a bit different compare to my 4 watchlist economies, the US, UK, Eurozone and Japan.
More time in the market, does not mean you trade better!
  • #762,487
  • Jul 30, 2023 12:21pm Jul 30, 2023 12:21pm
Quoting Fardeen1209
What da problem with AUD? Does China economy (its biggest trading partners) putting pressure on the AUD or oil prices, something? Any comments are welcomed. Just start trading AUD couple weeks ago. Its fundamental looks a bit different compare to my 4 watchlist economies, the US, UK, Eurozone and Japan.
I think trading the Aussie - is the easiest currency pair to trade.
China has a major effect on the Aussie.
Issues over Taiwan, the commercial property market and trade issues with the West all playing on sentiment.
Also iron ore forecasts don't look great.
Look ahead, Macro=Direction, Levels & Structure = Entry
  • #762,488
  • Jul 30, 2023 12:31pm Jul 30, 2023 12:31pm
Going to stick some trades on here this week - time to kick xxxx.
Look ahead, Macro=Direction, Levels & Structure = Entry
  • #762,489
  • Jul 30, 2023 12:38pm Jul 30, 2023 12:38pm
Quoting SFundamental
{quote} I think trading the Aussie - is the easiest currency pair to trade. China has a major effect on the Aussie. Issues over Taiwan, the commercial property market and trade issues with the West all playing on sentiment. Also iron ore forecasts don't look great.
Thanks for the insight sir
More time in the market, does not mean you trade better!
  • #762,490
  • Jul 30, 2023 1:11pm Jul 30, 2023 1:11pm
Quoting thevisitor
Where's Pat?
Honestly, I dunno
  • #762,491
  • Jul 30, 2023 1:15pm Jul 30, 2023 1:15pm
Quoting Nordling
{quote} T is on da mission Have fun mate!
Buddy whats your view about GU? Im very courius
People don't plan to lose. They lose because they don't plan.
  • #762,492
  • Jul 30, 2023 1:27pm Jul 30, 2023 1:27pm
Planning to sell GU from H4 imbalance. Target 2700.
As an amature this is my view. Any suggestion will be helpful.
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Target: $100 to $1000
  • #762,493
  • Jul 30, 2023 1:57pm Jul 30, 2023 1:57pm
Quoting SFundamental
{quote} I think trading the Aussie - is the easiest currency pair to trade. China has a major effect on the Aussie. Issues over Taiwan, the commercial property market and trade issues with the West all playing on sentiment. Also iron ore forecasts don't look great.
I think trading the Aussie - is the easiest currency pair to trade.
"The Aussie" is a single currency, not a pair. Did you have a specific pair in mind, or do you mean every pair that includes AUD is easy to trade?
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #762,494
  • Jul 30, 2023 2:10pm Jul 30, 2023 2:10pm
Quoting DrDave
{quote} I think trading the Aussie - is the easiest currency pair to trade. "The Aussie" is a single currency, not a pair. Did you have a specific pair in mind, or do you mean every pair that includes AUD is easy to trade?
Wrong "Aussie" is the nickname for AUD/USD ...
  • #762,495
  • Jul 30, 2023 2:16pm Jul 30, 2023 2:16pm
Quoting DrDave
{quote} I think trading the Aussie - is the easiest currency pair to trade. "The Aussie" is a single currency, not a pair. Did you have a specific pair in mind, or do you mean every pair that includes AUD is easy to trade?
"embarrassing post of the day"...
  • #762,496
  • Edited 2:51pm Jul 30, 2023 2:24pm | Edited 2:51pm
If cable holds between 1.2762/72 and then breaks 2887 expect it to go long.
POSTMASTER
  • #762,497
  • Jul 30, 2023 2:30pm Jul 30, 2023 2:30pm
Quoting ScalaFX
{quote} Buddy whats your view about GU? Im very courius
I have long positions open right now in GU and EU.

Inflation and core inflation in UK came lower than expected but they are still too high. So i think they will deliver a 25 bps rate hike as expected, but i don't expect Bailey to speak as dovish as Powell and Lagarde did. UK has a way more serious inflation problem and i believe BoE has still a long way to go with rate hikes.

In this situation, GU may test 1.2750s again but if it does, i won't hesitate to add to my GU long positions.
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  • #762,498
  • Jul 30, 2023 2:35pm Jul 30, 2023 2:35pm
I’d keep an eye on the 2820 area.
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  • #762,499
  • Jul 30, 2023 3:08pm Jul 30, 2023 3:08pm
Quoting DrDave
{quote} I think trading the Aussie - is the easiest currency pair to trade. "The Aussie" is a single currency, not a pair. Did you have a specific pair in mind, or do you mean every pair that includes AUD is easy to trade?
I should have written a better post. I was referring to the Australian economy. There are less things to monitor.
Ultimately it is a case of pairing up one currency with negative news against another with positive news at a high level and vice versa)
We saw this last week with the AUDJPY.
There was a miss on CPI, PPI in Australia
Whereas there was positive news on the Yen (regarding YCC).
The only issue with this is that sometimes the liquidity levels can cause issues
The Aussie is the slang used for AUDUSD if I recall -
Look ahead, Macro=Direction, Levels & Structure = Entry
  • #762,500
  • Jul 30, 2023 3:13pm Jul 30, 2023 3:13pm
Quoting SFundamental
{quote} I should have written a better post. I was referring to the Australian economy. There are less things to monitor. Ultimately it is a case of pairing up one currency with negative news against another with positive news at a high level and vice versa) We saw this last week with the AUDJPY. There was a miss on CPI, PPI and Retail Sales in Australia Whereas there was positive news on the Yen (regarding YCC). The only issue with this is that sometimes the liquidity levels can cause issues The Aussie is the slang used for AUDUSD if I recall -...
Short AUDCHF looks promising. I'll be shorting it tomorrow.

Easy to predict the trend of fundamental news. But it's hard to predict volatility, whipsaws, etc. Also, usually the data is priced in so it all comes down to surprise data which can go either way. Seems like there are only a few reliable news events to trade.
Trade at your own risk.
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