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Flying Dutchman

  • #8,641
  • Jul 27, 2023 11:11pm Jul 27, 2023 11:11pm
Quoting whitesta
{quote} And then some say market is random....lol. Billions if not Trillions was made on those two moves, down and up again. Dare i say not many may have had stoploss that big. But then again what do i know. For viewing side of it i can see on my chart that it started bang on ADR Low, RN, Weekly Pivot and an important one being PDL. For confluence(s) part it was bang on which most of the senior guys have been stating ever since this thread started. In no way, i am saying that i would have got in the trade cos even that 1 minute chart was way too...

Rug up with the weather pal.
Plus end of month on monday so a bit more movement to come imho.
  • #8,642
  • Jul 27, 2023 11:15pm Jul 27, 2023 11:15pm
More info followed on yen, Mr U still to have a presser in the next hour I guess.

Is this intervention. No, not classic by definition. But last time HAD impact.
https://www.forexlive.com/centralban...25bn-20230728/

"Bank of Japan widens range of 3-5 year bond buying, offering to buy as much as 750 bln yen each time, up from 725 bln yen"

I'm just watching it all lol.
  • #8,643
  • Jul 27, 2023 11:37pm Jul 27, 2023 11:37pm
GOLD: XAU is testing the D1 FLIP.

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Success = Practice + Patience + Persistence
  • #8,644
  • Jul 28, 2023 3:50am Jul 28, 2023 3:50am
Quoting bluesteele
Bubbling Crude,,,Black Gold,,,Texas Tea 3 sessions HH's 123 levels 5min candles ,,,these 3 candles take out PDH WeekH and BRN 80.00 A retest can be a hard thing to wait for as impatience is always there (for me at least) But that's the plan...stick to your plan 915 candle engulfs last 30 mins PA enter at the close Price drops quickly for a fast 45 pts. No holding on for more as the Futures chart has some unusual multiple Gaps and Vibs which indicates to me price will most likely backfill.. Done for the day Blue {image} {image} Black Gold...
UK Time.
Seems big moves earlier on 15 minute chart. Now seems to drift ?
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #8,645
  • Jul 28, 2023 4:03am Jul 28, 2023 4:03am
Quoting TimeTells
More info followed on yen, Mr U still to have a presser in the next hour I guess. Is this intervention. No, not classic by definition. But last time HAD impact. https://www.forexlive.com/centralban...25bn-20230728/ "Bank of Japan widens range of 3-5 year bond buying, offering to buy as much as 750 bln yen each time, up from 725 bln yen" I'm just watching it all lol.
Did they just discover Mount Fuji is made of Gold ?
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #8,646
  • Jul 28, 2023 6:52am Jul 28, 2023 6:52am
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Try channel trading in conjunction with bits of "Flying Dutchman" or channels alone Try POST 17 on Laura's "Roadmap" Thread: " Trading Exercises" https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...just-a-journal? Maybe look at her "Roadmap" thread: https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...o-read-markets
My personal opinion is that we can find entries into a market using many different ways, sometimes complex, sometimes simple.

Where the trader defines his / her craft is how they behave once in the trade.

"Rabbits in the headlights" or a clear plan of action before entering the trade. ie. know your clearly defined exits whether they are profits or loss.

We don't need accuracy or pinpoint entries / exits to succeed in this game.

Above all you are master of protecting your capital and avoiding mistakes as much as possible.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #8,647
  • Jul 28, 2023 9:40am Jul 28, 2023 9:40am
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} My personal opinion is that we can find entries into a market using many different ways, sometimes complex, sometimes simple. Where the trader defines his / her craft is how they behave once in the trade. "Rabbits in the headlights" or a clear plan of action before entering the trade. ie. know your clearly defined exits whether they are profits or loss. We don't need accuracy or pinpoint entries / exits to succeed in this game. Above all you are master of protecting your capital and avoiding mistakes as much as possible.
Well said Shabs.... Many ways to trade,,,,really as important as methodolgy is its nothing without Money Mgmt (Risk control) and Mindset... The 3Ms

I think once a trader can handle themselves and control their actions as best as possible...the most important thing then is risk mgmt...Capital mgmt is
everything,,, How many accounts were blown up by the Yens move in Asia.... Margin calls galore... Been there done that a few times lol...

Anyways excellent post Shabs really is

Cheers
Blue

Follow up post with todays Oil trade ...Mirror image of yesterday
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #8,648
  • Jul 28, 2023 11:24am Jul 28, 2023 11:24am
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} My personal opinion is that we can find entries into a market using many different ways, sometimes complex, sometimes simple. Where the trader defines his / her craft is how they behave once in the trade. "Rabbits in the headlights" or a clear plan of action before entering the trade. ie. know your clearly defined exits whether they are profits or loss. We don't need accuracy or pinpoint entries / exits to succeed in this game. Above all you are master of protecting your capital and avoiding mistakes as much as possible.
Only trying to help
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #8,649
  • Jul 28, 2023 11:59am Jul 28, 2023 11:59am
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Only trying to help
I always enjoy your charts T !

C.A.N.I.
Blue
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #8,650
  • Jul 28, 2023 2:30pm Jul 28, 2023 2:30pm
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Only trying to help
No Offence intended, Mr.T,

There are many ways to trade, entry can be simple or complicated that is a personal preference and what works for you.

From FXP 's post I gathered that he does have a successful trading method which he gets decent results from.

The issue, as I see it, and I could be wrong, is why the trading challenge is messing with the trading psychology.

Maybe having set daily targets is adding unnecessary pressure to the mix. Whereas normally you are taking fewer more select trades,

but now, taking larger than usual risk per trade, smaller tighter than usual stoplosses or overtrading, too many small trades chasing small profit targets ?

Where normally with your own money you are more relaxed and trade with the flow, different markets each day, better risk/reward and sit out bad trade days ?

Just some thoughts.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #8,651
  • Jul 28, 2023 9:31pm Jul 28, 2023 9:31pm
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} .... is why the trading challenge is messing with the trading psychology. Maybe having set daily targets is adding unnecessary pressure to the mix. Whereas normally you are taking fewer more select trades, but now, taking larger than usual risk per trade, smaller tighter than usual stoplosses or overtrading, too many small trades chasing small profit targets ? Where normally with your own money you are more relaxed and trade with the flow, different markets each day, better risk/reward and sit out bad trade days ? Just some thoughts.
Well explained Shab.

IMO, the rules for most of the prop challenges are carefully designed to make us (traders) fail. The challenges are full of nested rules related to some unrealistic nested targets, in terms of min number of trading days, allowable max lot size, news trading, overnight position holding option, complex calculation of the Daily DD & risk management, profit target timeframe, etc. All these put some extra layers of phycological pressure that clutters our mind.

Having said that, it is certainly not impossible to overcome this and eventually be successful. However, one needs to go through / compare the rules to choose the right prop firm and the suitable challenge model, as there are so many in the market.

Cheers!!
Success = Practice + Patience + Persistence
  • #8,652
  • Jul 28, 2023 10:22pm Jul 28, 2023 10:22pm
***Non-endorsement alert!***
https://www.samuelandcotrading.com/n...e-for-traders/

Drawdown availability is key for traders to recover and survive. The modern retail education fails with dreamlike conditions of two to one and lower drawdown than targets for example. Do pro traders and institutions stop making money once they hit 5% drawdown? A string of losses in pecent = how much?

From FXP:
Quote
The challenges are full of nested rules related to some unrealistic nested targets, in terms of min number of trading days, allowable max lot size, news trading, overnight position holding option, complex calculation of the Daily DD & risk management, profit target timeframe, etc. All these put some extra layers of phycological pressure that clutters our mind.
Agree FXP. Because a fee is paid something is required in return. Then throw in a different platform that stops the instinctive experience built up over time thanks to very specific template requirements that mt5 can't give that mt4 can for example. Now the challenge is that much harder. Solution. Create a strategy for the conditions given to you on the platform given to you. Do the discount demo merchants provide realistic pro-like conditions? Pro traders do challenges? Pro traders trade demo? Common-sense shall prevail?

All the best everyone.
  • #8,653
  • Jul 28, 2023 10:51pm Jul 28, 2023 10:51pm
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} Wyckoff theory is all about Human behaviour & Market manipulation by Market Maker.If there was no volume graphic on the chart, you can still see the Buying / Selling Climax, ranging market, inducement moves and then Mark Up / Mark Down, which we call a start of a trend to the next target. Of course stock trading was done over much longer timeframes, Weeks or Months, where we are nowadays in minutes, & hours with Forex. Psychology of the markets will remain the same as long as there are Humans involved in the process.
Shabs,

Wyckoff was about more than psychology and market maker fashion. Quite far removed from the current SMC push and focus of retail FX for example.

Wyckoff methodology was basically 3 laws:
The law of supply and demand, the law of effort versus result, and the law of cause and effect.
Point and figure charts were used to create price projections - otherwise known as TP in modern day FX.

Wyckoff wrote about the composite operator and composite man. It was fictional but could consist of any entity that can move markets (stocks) in a period of accumulation and reaccumulation of stock. A much easier task than trying to move FX alone. Perhaps the FX composite man is a central bank or group of central banks. That's for one to determine when they trade what they trade but perhaps on a bigger timeframe such as daily.
Read up on Hank Pruden's work. He brought this stuff to modern day attention back around 2007. I read all of his stuff before he took it down and wrote his book.

All the best.
  • #8,654
  • Jul 28, 2023 11:25pm Jul 28, 2023 11:25pm
We all choose/accept to trade in an environment where the playing field boundaries can be moved seemingly at will.

We know this going in !


What is our trader’s behaviour when goalposts (DD) move mid-game.

.
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  • #8,655
  • Jul 28, 2023 11:26pm Jul 28, 2023 11:26pm
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  • #8,656
  • Jul 28, 2023 11:33pm Jul 28, 2023 11:33pm
And remembering more of Mike

Jamaican/Canadian boxer Razor Ruddock wasn’t the highest ranked in the game but fought some of the best.
What a ticker (and left hand).

A short 9 minute highlight reel.
Violence warning !
This only for boxing fans, I imagine. How deep can you reach under pressure.

By Round 5 Mike realised I reckon this wasn’t going to be an early night.
Plenty of low blows and punches after the bell by both.
Round 6, Razor punches Mike’s mouthguard right out of his mouth.
Both boxers old school & sitting right down on their punches, the sounds are huge when listening on headphones.
Rounds 7, 8, 9, 10 wow.
Round 11 Razor returns a low blow looking to even up I imagine.

Razor sure earned Mike’s respect this night (this was the second of their only two fights).
I had not seen Mike embrace another fighter, up to that point, at the end of a fight that I can remember.

A big battle of skills AND wills and goodwill post fight here imo.

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  • #8,657
  • Jul 29, 2023 12:41am Jul 29, 2023 12:41am
Quoting bluesteele
{quote} Well said Shabs.... Many ways to trade,,,,really as important as methodology is its nothing without Money Mgmt (Risk control) and Mindset... The 3Ms I think once a trader can handle themselves and control their actions as best as possible...the most important thing then is risk mgmt...Capital mgmt is everything,,, How many accounts were blown up by the Yens move in Asia.... Margin calls galore... Been there done that a few times lol... Anyways excellent post Shabs really is Cheers Blue Follow up post with todays Oil trade ...Mirror...
LEVELS -TIMING - BEHAVIOUR OF PRICE

1 short for me today at 9:05am NYT for quick no heat 50 pts. Just a pile of setups today after NY equity open.... into the highs and lows
As well Prev Day NY Open...as I have mentioned many times... Pay attention to the Opens and PA around them (BIAS)
That Noon consolidation at NY Lunch then at 1:05 a beauty setup candle... Cant get em all...Caught one fish today out of the barrel,,,

First chart was my short entry on the close of Engulfing candle,,,same short setup as yesterday.....

Then an End of Day chart showing the PA interactions at the PFHs,,, PFLs,,,Session Highs,,, Levels,,, Timings(although not labelled its there),,,PDO/NYOpen

A whole smorgasbord of Market Mechanics... These same concepts and patterns happen every single day across all instruments.. Its how the market works,,,IMO

Have a good Weekend
Blue

BTW no 4 hr intent necessary

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Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #8,658
  • Jul 29, 2023 6:55am Jul 29, 2023 6:55am
Quoting bluesteele
{quote} LEVELS -TIMING - BEHAVIOUR OF PRICE 1 short for me today at 9:05am NYT for quick no heat 50 pts. Just a pile of setups today after NY equity open.... into the highs and lows As well Prev Day NY Open...as I have mentioned many times... Pay attention to the Opens and PA around them (BIAS) That Noon consolidation at NY Lunch then at 1:05 a beauty setup candle... Cant get em all...Caught one fish today out of the barrel,,, First chart was my short entry on the close of Engulfing candle,,,same short setup as yesterday..... Then an End of Day...
Is this similar UK times?
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #8,659
  • Jul 29, 2023 7:01am Jul 29, 2023 7:01am
Playing about with time scales on E/J.
I always thought 5 minute was a good time scale to day trade by for Forex but have noted how 15 minute and even 4 hour levels react to price. My five minute still shows reactions to four hour levels ( which often seem to coincide with lower levels. Of course bigger time scales lead to bigger drawdowns. Depends on your belief in your approach and resolve maybe ?
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #8,660
  • Jul 29, 2023 9:18am Jul 29, 2023 9:18am
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Is this similar UK times? {image} {image}
Yep spot on that is 830-930 am NY = 13:30-14:30 UK
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
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