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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #758,681
  • Jul 16, 2023 7:07am Jul 16, 2023 7:07am
Quoting TheWraith
{quote} Average Impact Of High-Impact News For GBP/USD In Pips (2023) US News: ISM Manufacturing PMI - 36 JOLTS Job Openings - 46 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change - 38 Non-Farm Employment Change - 72 ISM Services PMI - 69 CPI Y/Y - 84 Prelim UOM Consumer Sentiment - 39 Empire State Manufacturing Index - 36 PPI M/M - 47 Retail Sales M/M - 47 Flash Services PMI - 38 Advance GDP Q/Q - 50 Core PCE Price Index M/M - 35 CB Consumer Confidence - 31 Federal Funds Rate - 77 Prelim GDP Q/Q - 37 Unemployment Claims - 43 Flash Manufacturing PMI - 37 Final GDP...
Thanks for this information. I counted pips of the news releases too back in 2016 but I haven't done it lately.
Trade at your own risk.
  • #758,682
  • Jul 16, 2023 7:33am Jul 16, 2023 7:33am
Global reserves of USD were lower in 1991 then they are now. The USD is technically not in a downtrend but rather in a range until it breaks 1991 lows. I believe that a case can be made that Gold and the EUR will collapse. Nobody knows the day or the hour except God.

US Dollar’s Status as Global Reserve Currency on Slow Long-Term Decline, but Not Going Down in a Straight Line | Wolf Street
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Global-Reserve-Currencies-IMF-COFER-2023-07-15-USD-share-annual.png Size: 13 KB
Trade at your own risk.
  • #758,683
  • Jul 16, 2023 7:36am Jul 16, 2023 7:36am
Quoting trumps
{quote} well you’re wrong on that. Belief comes from analysis and evidence. Guessing is when you haven’t got a clue. think about it….
Plenty of "believers" that operate mainly from blind faith, not on evidence.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #758,684
  • Edited 8:14am Jul 16, 2023 7:40am | Edited 8:14am
1.28500 level is important because the price will return to this level.
this analysis is only based on high probability.

I could be wrong.
  • #758,685
  • Edited 8:01am Jul 16, 2023 7:43am | Edited 8:01am
Quoting dantpm
{quote} You just have to look at the growth of Canadian debt to see how this simply isn't true. https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/government-debt The provinces are just the same. If you add back the debt from privatized government corporations it gets even worse! The latest scam in Canada is exponential growth of user fees for government services to add hidden taxation. None of these do anything other than obscure the level of government spending. The Canadian government that you claim values their citizens well being seized bank account...
In recent years, due to COVID, the debts increased not only in Canada, but in every other country.

Though it is not good, the good part is..the canadian government did not stop any programs for citizens and seniors.

Like child benifits, Health system, old age pension and like that. Recently, the govt even introduced grocery benifits in order to help citizens with rising grocery costs. This is very good , they value their citizens.

In India, they stopped benifits offered to seniors. They removed consession tickets offered to Senior citizens. They removed government subsidy to oil and petrol products by which the price of even gas cylinder increased tremendiously.

The govt tried their best to reduce debt in every possible way.
Intraday only.
  • #758,686
  • Jul 16, 2023 8:08am Jul 16, 2023 8:08am
No matter what evidence based or statistical based decisions behind a trade idea, the outcome of the next trade is 50/50 chance.
So the "best guess" is the right word here.
on a postive roll...
  • #758,687
  • Jul 16, 2023 8:08am Jul 16, 2023 8:08am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} Plenty of "believers" that operate mainly from blind faith, not on evidence.
Well yep, that happens for sure. But it comes down to the individual and their own processes.
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #758,688
  • Jul 16, 2023 8:16am Jul 16, 2023 8:16am
We always trade based on our beliefs, no matter how we slice it. As always, I don't have a problem with other beliefs.
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
  • #758,689
  • Jul 16, 2023 8:19am Jul 16, 2023 8:19am
Quoting Rmg
No matter what evidence based or statistical based decisions behind a trade idea, the outcome of the next trade is 50/50 chance. So the "best guess" is the right word here.
How do you apply a 50/50 chance to a particular outcome, if your decision is based on a strategy that has a significant statistical probability of greater than 50% of producing a certain outcome?
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #758,690
  • Jul 16, 2023 8:25am Jul 16, 2023 8:25am
Quoting trumps
{quote} How do you apply a 50/50 chance to a particular outcome, if your decision is based on a strategy that has a significant statistical probability of greater than 50% of producing a certain outcome?
Some of the best strategies have a 60% or less win rate and that's without factoring in commissions, spreads, fees, etc.
Trade at your own risk.
  • #758,691
  • Jul 16, 2023 8:27am Jul 16, 2023 8:27am
If I jump out of an aeroplane with a parachute that has been packed by a trained professional, when I pull the rip cord, that parachute will either open or not open. That doesn't mean I have a 50% chance of dying that day.
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #758,692
  • Jul 16, 2023 8:27am Jul 16, 2023 8:27am
Quoting trumps
{quote} How do you apply a 50/50 chance to a particular outcome, if your decision is based on a strategy that has a significant statistical probability of greater than 50% of producing a certain outcome?
Over a large sample size the edge will play out by pressing more on the winning trades.
But the very next trades outcome is always50/50.
on a postive roll...
  • #758,693
  • Jul 16, 2023 8:28am Jul 16, 2023 8:28am
Quoting dantpm
All the indicators, strategies, theories and so on provide a basis for probable moves that the market can make. You still need a confirmation of the actual move that the market is making. Until it confirms it CAN ALWAYS go either way! I believe that it may be possible to identify higher probability moves and it is this goal that I am trying achieve to identify the best theory, indicator or whatever to help me identify these higher probability moves.
You still need a confirmation of the actual move that the market is making. Until it confirms it CAN ALWAYS go either way!
And that is exactly why I wait for that confirmation before entering. Of course, how LONG that confirmed direction will remain in effect is not known. But, relativly speaking for each TF, the probability is much greater that it continues in the same direction rather than going into a retracement or even reversal.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #758,694
  • Jul 16, 2023 8:29am Jul 16, 2023 8:29am
Quoting Fx3423454
{quote} Some of the best strategies have a 60% or less win rate and that's without factoring in commissions, spreads, fees, etc.
Other strategies have much higher win rate than that.
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #758,695
  • Jul 16, 2023 8:32am Jul 16, 2023 8:32am
Quoting Rmg
{quote} Over a large sample size the edge will play out by pressing more on the winning trades. But the very next trades outcome is always50/50.
I'm not sure the maths of that quite works out.
If the outcome of the next trade is always 50/50, then there is not edge to speak of, no matter how large the sample size.
In this situation, any variation in outcome over the long term, other than 50/50, is simply due to chance.
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #758,696
  • Jul 16, 2023 8:33am Jul 16, 2023 8:33am
Quoting TheWraith
Wait, is it possible that we had no drama over the weekend? Folks are probably in profit this week haha.. That's good!
No, it's due to so many people getting hammered with either big losses or now holding huge floating DD. Now they are too busy trying to figure out what to do next than to be engaging in frivolous drama here.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #758,697
  • Jul 16, 2023 8:36am Jul 16, 2023 8:36am
Flipping a regular coin, has a 50/50 chance of a head or tail facing up.
Flipping a weighted coin (AKA strategy based on statistical probability), may have 70% chance of producing a particular outcome (a tail for example).
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #758,698
  • Jul 16, 2023 8:37am Jul 16, 2023 8:37am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} No, it's due to so many people getting hammered with either big losses or now holding huge floating DD. Now they are too busy trying to figure out what to do next than to be engaging in frivolous drama here.
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #758,699
  • Jul 16, 2023 8:41am Jul 16, 2023 8:41am
Quoting Fx3423454
{quote} Even IF they did, high win rate doesn't even mean it will beat another strategy that has a lower win rate. The best strategy I have seen has a 42% win rate and turned 50k into 2.4 trillion in 23 years.
Yes I understand, we factor in R:R ratio, and trading frequency.
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #758,700
  • Jul 16, 2023 8:42am Jul 16, 2023 8:42am
Quoting TheWraith
{quote} Isn't this the endless battle we have been witnessing for centuries? Those who believe in God and those who don't? Yet, neither side can claim with certainty they are right. On that you are right. It's little different with God and all of that. We actually have enormous effort by scientists to disprove God's intervention and they are continually failing in that. This topic always interested me. How do we know the difference between the right and wrong? Why does universe rewards you after you make a good deed? You either get the same...
Why does universe rewards you after you make a good deed? You either get the same value back from another person, you either are left feeling good about yourself which is also rewarding or something else happens that helps you somehow.

You are implying that either this is what always happens, or happens most of the time. This is yet another of our human traits: emphasize the positive while downplaying the negative, or emphasize the negative while downplaying the positive, depending on which supports your narrative at the moment.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
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