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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #758,661
  • Jul 16, 2023 3:49am Jul 16, 2023 3:49am
All the indicators, strategies, theories and so on provide a basis for probable moves that the market can make. You still need a confirmation of the actual move that the market is making. Until it confirms it CAN ALWAYS go either way! I believe that it may be possible to identify higher probability moves and it is this goal that I am trying achieve to identify the best theory, indicator or whatever to help me identify these higher probability moves.
  • #758,662
  • Jul 16, 2023 3:51am Jul 16, 2023 3:51am
I think it will go higher to make a balance overbought.
just not necessarily so much as 10000 pips to shoot up in a short time.
Market still can use long time small ranging to make it balanced.
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  • #758,663
  • Jul 16, 2023 3:53am Jul 16, 2023 3:53am
Quoting dantpm
All the indicators, strategies, theories and so on provide a basis for probable moves that the market can make. You still need a confirmation of the actual move that the market is making. Until it confirms it CAN ALWAYS go either way! I believe that it may be possible to identify higher probability moves and it is this goal that I am trying achieve to identify the best theory, indicator or whatever to help me identify these higher probability moves.
it is a game of probabilities. The missing word
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #758,664
  • Jul 16, 2023 3:58am Jul 16, 2023 3:58am
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} Thanks so "belief" and "guess" are fundamentally the same it's only the individual that interprets it differently ...
I guess?

Hahahah

Believe is more personal and should carry more weight. Like, when someone says I guess it was blue, or I believe it was blue, yes. I would trust more to the person who used the word believe. I think the word believe is rooted in us from long time ago and has it's weight in our lives much more then guess.
  • #758,665
  • Jul 16, 2023 4:08am Jul 16, 2023 4:08am
Wait, is it possible that we had no drama over the weekend?
Folks are probably in profit this week haha..

That's good!
  • #758,666
  • Jul 16, 2023 4:12am Jul 16, 2023 4:12am
We kind of have very important few weeks before us now. According to the chart on USD/JPY, USD will either lose almost complete edge it had over Yen or USD is making a comeback from these prices. Let's see how this weekly will close. Probably we'll have enough data to determine which of the two outcomes is going to play out.
  • #758,667
  • Jul 16, 2023 4:12am Jul 16, 2023 4:12am
Quoting TheWraith
{quote} I guess? Hahahah Believe is more personal and should carry more weight. Like, when someone says I guess it was blue, or I believe it was blue, yes. I would trust more to the person who used the word believe. I think the word believe is rooted in us from long time ago and has it's weight in our lives much more then guess.
This is why when folks say they "believe" they are not open to other suggestions so can be very dangerous and just because you believe doesn't mean you are right ......I could be wrong...
  • #758,668
  • Jul 16, 2023 4:15am Jul 16, 2023 4:15am
Quoting TheWraith
Wait, is it possible that we had no drama over the weekend? Folks are probably in profit this week haha.. That's good!
No not possible, public forum and because I believe it...
  • #758,669
  • Jul 16, 2023 4:19am Jul 16, 2023 4:19am
Quoting Cgpips
I think it will go higher to make a balance overbought. just not necessarily so much as 10000 pips to shoot up in a short time. Market still can use long time small ranging to make it balanced. {image}
Main points in my mind right now.
1. Georginson pointed out the tendency for GU to drop from mid July to September annually.
2. DXY has a really strong long bias. GU, EU and so on are all very short.
My hunch is that we see GU move higher to trap more retail traders before moving down.
  • #758,670
  • Jul 16, 2023 4:22am Jul 16, 2023 4:22am
Quoting Cgpips
I think it will go higher to make a balance overbought. just not necessarily so much as 10000 pips to shoot up in a short time. Market still can use long time small ranging to make it balanced. {image}
I feel bear side in the weekly chart by head & shoulder model.
possible few weeks to make another high, then drop deep correction.
  • #758,671
  • Jul 16, 2023 4:26am Jul 16, 2023 4:26am
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} This is why when folks say they "believe" they are not open to other suggestions so can be very dangerous and just because you believe doesn't mean you are right ......I could be wrong...
Isn't this the endless battle we have been witnessing for centuries? Those who believe in God and those who don't?

Yet, neither side can claim with certainty they are right. On that you are right. It's little different with God and all of that. We actually have enormous effort by scientists to disprove God's intervention and they are continually failing in that.

This topic always interested me. How do we know the difference between the right and wrong? Why does universe rewards you after you make a good deed? You either get the same value back from another person, you either are left feeling good about yourself which is also rewarding or something else happens that helps you somehow.

Questions, questions, so many questions...

How many times does one has to start from the scratch to know the base this time is solid enough to build upon it?
  • #758,672
  • Jul 16, 2023 4:30am Jul 16, 2023 4:30am
Quoting dantpm
{quote} Main points in my mind right now. 1. Georginson pointed out the tendency for GU to drop from mid July to September annually. 2. DXY has a really strong long bias. GU, EU and so on are all very short. My hunch is that we see GU move higher to trap more retail traders before moving down.
Yes, yes!! you're right.
I got trapped by MM very often, but because my small account cannot bear lots of FL, so even I know it's a trap, I have to hedge it. Then make quick reaction to manage positions accordingly.
  • #758,673
  • Jul 16, 2023 4:36am Jul 16, 2023 4:36am
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} This is why when folks say they "believe" they are not open to other suggestions so can be very dangerous and just because you believe doesn't mean you are right ......I could be wrong...
that’s not necessarily correct, it depends on context. If I believe it’s going north based on the information and my analysis, that doesn’t mean my mind can’t be changed by new information or analysis. In the same way, a jury may believe someone is guilty of a crime, until new evidence comes to light. No one said believing in something means they are right. Straw man.
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #758,674
  • Jul 16, 2023 4:39am Jul 16, 2023 4:39am
Wave, you're asking the same questions many brilliant minds have always pondered about. None of us have come close to discovering the real truth. Now, what I like to do if something just cannot be figured out is this: what are the consequences behind each view?

So, you ask yourself this!

What would be the consequences for society if everyone thought God doesn't exist and would be the consequences for society where everyone believes God does exist?

We can start from here, because we have evidence from the past and some personal experience about this.
  • #758,675
  • Jul 16, 2023 4:54am Jul 16, 2023 4:54am
Quoting trumps
{quote} that’s not necessarily correct, it depends on context. If I believe it’s going north based on the information and my analysis, that doesn’t mean my mind can’t be changed by new information or analysis. In the same way, a jury may believe someone is guilty of a crime, until new evidence comes to light. No one said believing in something means they are right. Straw man.
By you saying "that's not necessarily correct" shows that you partly agree with me, I should have worded it a bit better, "if someone has a strong belief it's very hard to change their point of view but not impossible", folks will still believe anything even with mass evidence in front of them, so does that make evidence void for belief ?
  • #758,676
  • Jul 16, 2023 5:00am Jul 16, 2023 5:00am
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} By you saying "that's not necessarily correct" shows that you partly agree with me, I should have worded it a bit better, "if someone has a strong belief it's very hard to change their point of view but not impossible", folks will still believe anything even with mass evidence in front of them, so does that make evidence void for belief ?
depends on how stubborn the person is. At times evidence maybe void for belief, at other times not.
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #758,677
  • Jul 16, 2023 5:13am Jul 16, 2023 5:13am
Quoting TheWraith
Wave, you're asking the same questions many brilliant minds have always pondered about. None of us have come close to discovering the real truth. Now, what I like to do if something just cannot be figured out is this: what are the consequences behind each view? So, you ask yourself this! What would be the consequences for society if everyone thought God doesn't exist and would be the consequences for society where everyone believes God does exist? We can start from here, because we have evidence from the past and some personal experience about this....
Think were going off topic so I will post no more on this matter but you could always start your own thread...
  • #758,678
  • Jul 16, 2023 5:26am Jul 16, 2023 5:26am
Quoting Cgpips
{quote} Yes, yes!! you're right. I got trapped by MM very often, but because my small account cannot bear lots of FL, so even I know it's a trap, I have to hedge it. Then make quick reaction to manage positions accordingly.
Take a look at Stacey Burke Traiding on YouTube. He has ideas about how to identify high probability moves and the signals that confirm them. You might like it enough to add it to your 'tool box'.
  • #758,679
  • Jul 16, 2023 5:37am Jul 16, 2023 5:37am
Quoting dantpm
{quote} Main points in my mind right now. 1. Georginson pointed out the tendency for GU to drop from mid July to September annually. 2. DXY has a really strong long bias. GU, EU and so on are all very short. My hunch is that we see GU move higher to trap more retail traders before moving down.
I've discussed USD with someone working in bank. USD to TWD is still firmly strong.
so it might be some short term transitions they're acting to mask the base.
  • #758,680
  • Jul 16, 2023 5:54am Jul 16, 2023 5:54am
Quoting dantpm
{quote} Take a look at Stacey Burke Traiding on YouTube. He has ideas about how to identify high probability moves and the signals that confirm them. You might like it enough to add it to your 'tool box'.
Great! Thank you!

Stacey Burke and Trader Tom look like twin.
There's an old Chinese saying "Nine out of ten bald-headed people are rich.“
so I guess it's true
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