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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #746,821
  • May 22, 2023 2:08pm May 22, 2023 2:08pm
siesta mode see u later...
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  • #746,822
  • May 22, 2023 2:18pm May 22, 2023 2:18pm
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yes yes yes
  • #746,823
  • May 22, 2023 2:40pm May 22, 2023 2:40pm
Quoting Bones
{quote} So I thought the base effect makes it harder to go up because specific high months are being dragged in from the last 12 months? Is that what you're saying?
At a high-level, here's how I'm looking at it... Hypothetically, let's pretend the UK Consumer Price Index was at 100 for all of year 2000. Then in January 2001, there was an energy embargo that caused energy prices to soar. That in turn drove CPI from 100 to 110 in January representing a 10% increase in a single month. After that point, CPI remains at 110 for the next year. The M/M gain for February, March, April, etc. would be 0.0%, but the Y/Y gain is still 10% since, despite not actually rising from the prior month, it's still 10% higher from the same time last year. After a year passes, that 10% jump falls out so CPI Y/Y becomes 0.0%.

Quoting Bones
{quote} Its already in the read {image}
The lookback period is really 13. Think about it, the M/M change is t-1 so we're really dealing with a 2 month window. Y/Y is t-12 so the window is 13.
  • #746,824
  • May 22, 2023 3:12pm May 22, 2023 3:12pm
Seems like the prospect of a debt ceiling resolution within 24hrs is giving the dollar some tail wind. makes positioning tricky as we could see a knee jerk reaction at news of a deal. trade with tight technical stops
  • #746,825
  • Edited 4:17pm May 22, 2023 3:48pm | Edited 4:17pm
Quoting ForexStats
{quote} At a high-level, here's how I'm looking at it... Hypothetically, let's pretend the UK Consumer Price Index was at 100 for all of year 2000. Then in January 2001, there was an energy embargo that caused energy prices to soar. That in turn drove CPI from 100 to 110 in January representing a 10% increase in a single month. After that point, CPI remains at 110 for the next year. The M/M gain for February, March, April, etc. would be 0.0%, but the Y/Y gain is still 10% since, despite not actually rising from the prior month, it's still 10% higher...
When the reading comes, surely there will be 13 readings from the 9% spike, you'd have to show me how that jump isn't already in the data on a chart,
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #746,826
  • May 22, 2023 4:13pm May 22, 2023 4:13pm
Quoting eyefeelsix
{quote} this is good news for me when today's stomp failed to break LOD ( C wave ) there is a possibility that the 2nd wave peak is right there. one passenger on the plane was evicted, then two stowaways were smuggled in lol {image}
Cable is easy to read but hard to trade, Cya!
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https://breakpullback.com
  • #746,827
  • May 22, 2023 4:44pm May 22, 2023 4:44pm
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yes yes yes
  • #746,828
  • May 22, 2023 8:03pm May 22, 2023 8:03pm
I’m short on GU
  • #746,829
  • May 22, 2023 8:29pm May 22, 2023 8:29pm
Quoting GODofMC
{quote} By your chart, we need to close daily above daily pivot to stay Long ? The hell it is 380 pips i gain today? Max gain pips today under 100 pips Closing Partial, Tighten TP, SL remain the same Fryday Low{image} Sell UJ mini lot {image} {image}
UJ hit SL
10000% Wannabe . -$3000 & -$4000
Gold Recovery All Time Profit: -$3,961
  • #746,830
  • Edited 10:52pm May 22, 2023 9:50pm | Edited 10:52pm
Quoting ForexStats
{quote} At a high-level, here's how I'm looking at it... Hypothetically, let's pretend the UK Consumer Price Index was at 100 for all of year 2000. Then in January 2001, there was an energy embargo that caused energy prices to soar. That in turn drove CPI from 100 to 110 in January representing a 10% increase in a single month. After that point, CPI remains at 110 for the next year. The M/M gain for February, March, April, etc. would be 0.0%, but the Y/Y gain is still 10% since, despite not actually rising from the prior month, it's still 10% higher...
You explained it very well. But that's one way of seeing it. Many traders said they know how they are reading the inflation, but in fact what they dont understand is that price still rising but the rate at which it is rising, is falling. This is why it is better to follow the money
As i said earlier, the focus should not be in fundamentals only but also in technical, cause many time you would be right about the number, but been already stopped out. So you are right yet are losing money.
Easiest way to think cpi is in term of interest rate,while keeping in mind the country's gdp. So for eg, if cpi is rising, at the time when the cpi went up 10% from your hypothetical eg, the market does not know whether this cpi will continue to rise or not, so they will bet in favour that down the road the central bank will start hiking to mitigate the cpi (since it is far above the global 2% target). This explain why the currency of the country appreaciate (which is against the effect of the cpi by theory).

Second thing we need to bear in mind, is gdp. If the economy we are talking about is a strong one (just like USA when it start hiking), the country's currency trend up. While, the gdp is weak (just like UK), many times when CPI went up or BOE hike more, you will see very often the GBP falls. Why? The obvious reason is the fear of recession. Given the gdp was already weak pre-hiking cycle, when rate hike cycle starts, this puts pressure on the economy, and the probability of the recession to occur in the near future goes up.

I have been trading fx for 1.5 years, and this is what i've learnt from the market itself, is how they react to those specific data. Idk if before there was a different history than this, cause i have never look back for something, except for couple of thing, like key support /resistant, brexit announcement and actual brexit effect...

What im trying to say here is tried to view the picture from a traders perspective not from an economist perspective. Cause an economist will believe all scenerio might occur but for a trader whatever s/he believes, her/is money is at play. And there are only 2 possible final scenario take profit or stop loss. This is why no matter how good an economist can be, they can never be a good trader.

Just my 2 cent view

Hope that helps mate
More time in the market, does not mean you trade better!
  • #746,831
  • May 22, 2023 10:26pm May 22, 2023 10:26pm
Quoting Moty
{image} {image}
GU

Copy trades

Closed long
Open Short

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I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #746,832
  • May 22, 2023 10:40pm May 22, 2023 10:40pm
Quoting busifx
Seems like the prospect of a debt ceiling resolution within 24hrs is giving the dollar some tail wind. makes positioning tricky as we could see a knee jerk reaction at news of a deal. trade with tight technical stops
It appears the market has made up its mind in regards to debt resolution - US has never been adverse to kicking can down the road so it makes sense.

Anyone else longing USD today? Seems its pretty in demand across the board
  • #746,833
  • May 22, 2023 10:41pm May 22, 2023 10:41pm
Quoting sisucoro
{quote}If you are waiting to friday for party you are living in the wrong part of the world, specially now facing summer
Hey Bro,

already summer in Madrid ?
Then , I will travel to Cape Town for a break, cooler temp around 15 deg Cel.

Then can party after having time in AIFAM
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #746,834
  • May 22, 2023 10:45pm May 22, 2023 10:45pm
A try close to 2450 is expected for a drop close to 2415 then London should rise this.
Intraday only.
  • #746,835
  • May 22, 2023 10:54pm May 22, 2023 10:54pm
Quoting Whale
My labeling could be trash {image}
i took my sl to break even and changed the tp.
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  • #746,836
  • May 22, 2023 11:16pm May 22, 2023 11:16pm
Quoting Orangeapple
{quote} It appears the market has made up its mind in regards to debt resolution - US has never been adverse to kicking can down the road so it makes sense. Anyone else longing USD today? Seems its pretty in demand across the board
Many ....
here they are..
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I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #746,837
  • May 22, 2023 11:18pm May 22, 2023 11:18pm
GBP has further fall in 1.23
  • #746,838
  • May 22, 2023 11:25pm May 22, 2023 11:25pm
Quoting DmShka
{quote} Not sure that this swing related with this news, it's just simple NY stock market open(it's open after NY open), usual reaction and news was pulished after, personally I've no seen any market reaction to this
BTW, a quick reminder that the game is not fair….

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They do anything to squeeze everything from the masses.
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #746,839
  • May 22, 2023 11:31pm May 22, 2023 11:31pm
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} ...don't know why people get so offended by a word, no one has ever gone to A and E because of being offended, I get called it all the time ...
With regards to the "C" word Brits used overtime.
Today I've learn the truee meaning of the word, and that's why Brits use it at the end of their sentences.

IBTW, I'm not Brits, am I allowed to use it ?
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I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #746,840
  • May 22, 2023 11:31pm May 22, 2023 11:31pm
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} BTW, a quick reminder that the game is not fair…. {image} They do anything to squeeze everything from the masses.
just ride the mass, sometimes market driven by flock,
sometimes actual life(the mass) drive the market,
but most of times it was not our fortune to begin with
10000% Wannabe . -$3000 & -$4000
Gold Recovery All Time Profit: -$3,961
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