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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #12,781
  • May 16, 2007 4:52am May 16, 2007 4:52am
Quoting The Cable Guy
I'm short at 9850 and want to take profit at 9796. I think short is the right direction for today, but I had expected a heavier move down until now.
Ha! I am set to move SL to BE at 9796!
  • #12,782
  • May 16, 2007 4:56am May 16, 2007 4:56am
Quoting x3m
Ha! I am set to move SL to BE at 9796!
what is your stop?
  • #12,783
  • May 16, 2007 4:59am May 16, 2007 4:59am
Anyone think it'll drop below 9825? It seems to be having problems at this level. A bounce up maybe?
  • #12,784
  • May 16, 2007 5:01am May 16, 2007 5:01am
I would say...the report was not so bad, don't no why there is selling pressure right now, probably short term. I would search for a good spot to go long after US news release
  • #12,785
  • May 16, 2007 5:02am May 16, 2007 5:02am
Quoting wshhmm
what is your stop?
Initial stop is 70 pips
  • #12,786
  • Edited 5:04am May 16, 2007 5:02am | Edited 5:04am
Look at your charts (I am on 1 hour GMT+2), I see a similiar pattern to yesterday developing. Should start bottoming out in the next hour and then continue long. Housing data should not be all that good if the reports are to be believed.
Eish! If you don't fly with the eagles you'll scratch with the turkeys
  • #12,787
  • May 16, 2007 5:03am May 16, 2007 5:03am
Quoting x3m
Initial stop is 70 pips
Thanks.
  • #12,788
  • May 16, 2007 5:09am May 16, 2007 5:09am
German IFO Q2 Survey: econ sentiment 106.8 v 100.0 prior- Says USD clearly undervalued, but that further weakening seen over the next 6 months
- Yen seen as more undervalued than USD, GBP overvalued
  • #12,789
  • May 16, 2007 5:11am May 16, 2007 5:11am
Quoting Loopy
Anyone think it'll drop below 9825? It seems to be having problems at this level. A bounce up maybe?
That's the question. The trend is still down, so I expect we'll visit 9825 again.

At 11:32 a new low was made at 9833 and than it retraced to 9843...
At 11:37 a new low was made at 9827 and than it retraced to 9842..
At 11:53 a new low was made at 9824 and until now it retraced to 9836.

Now I hope cable will make a top at 9834-9836 and than push it through the 9824. But when cable retraces to 9845 the picture isn't so bearish at all.
  • #12,790
  • May 16, 2007 5:22am May 16, 2007 5:22am
Quoting The Cable Guy
That's the question. The trend is still down, so I expect we'll visit 9825 again.

At 11:32 a new low was made at 9833 and than it retraced to 9843...
At 11:37 a new low was made at 9827 and than it retraced to 9842..
At 11:53 a new low was made at 9824 and until now it retraced to 9836.

Now I hope cable will make a top at 9834-9836 and than push it through the 9824. But when cable retraces to 9845 the picture isn't so bearish at all.

If above 9875, i will cover it.

now it seems euro strong, gold refurse down but uj still can't above 120.50.
  • #12,791
  • Edited 5:34am May 16, 2007 5:24am | Edited 5:34am
I'll second watching CNBC, I pretty much always have it on when I'm trading. Some beautiful women on there too which makes it easier to watch.

I generally avoid any predictions made, but it speeds the process up I think when you hear and read about the stuff. I do wish they would talk more about forex, but allot of stock fundamentals can and do relate to currency.

I normally don't trade the the news but did get few from that, hardly worth the stress. Trading the news still spooks me a bit, some quick moves though. It should break 824, but the it's likely coming up a bit or consolidating first.
  • #12,792
  • May 16, 2007 6:36am May 16, 2007 6:36am
If we draw fibo lines from todays high to todays low, we see a 61.8% retracement at 9843. Took another short at 9841.

For now let's wait and see what will happen..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd 5m chart.jpg Size: 92 KB
  • #12,793
  • May 16, 2007 6:48am May 16, 2007 6:48am
Quoting The Cable Guy
If we draw fibo lines from todays high to todays low, we see a 61.8% retracement at 9843. Took another short at 9841.

For now let's wait and see what will happen..


Other way round..........
Eish! If you don't fly with the eagles you'll scratch with the turkeys
  • #12,794
  • May 16, 2007 6:53am May 16, 2007 6:53am
Quoting africanpip
Other way round..........
ow okay..
  • #12,795
  • Edited 8:05am May 16, 2007 7:41am | Edited 8:05am
Doubt much will happen B4 14.15 BST Industrial Production. Any thoughts ?

9984 Fib 21032 / 9745 61.8

9973 May 9 Intra Hi

9962 May 10 Hi

9947 May 10 Intra Hi

9939 Fib 21032 / 9745 50.0
9930/40 Offers Strong
9927 SBR Med
9920 May 10 Ret Hi

9910 May 10 Ret Hi

9906 May 10 Ret Hi
9902 Fib 9999 / 9745 61.8
9900/10 Offers Minor
9893 Fib 20132 / 9745 38.2
9875/85 Offers Med
9873 Sess Hi
9872 May 15 Hi
9872 Fib 9999 / 9745 50.0

9847 Fib 9872 / 9804 61.8
9845 SBR Med
9843 Ret Hi
9839 Fib 9872 / 9804 50.0






9809 Fib 9745 / 9872 50.0
9804 Sess Lo
9794 Fib 9745 / 9872 61.8
9792 RBS Minor
9790/00 Bids

9775 Bids

9750 Bids
9745 May 14 Lo

9724 Apr 12 Lo

9658 Fib 9183 / 20132 50.0
  • #12,796
  • Edited 8:30am May 16, 2007 8:13am | Edited 8:30am
That last rally was a perfect retrace off the upward channel support trend line.

Good US news could test this support again and given today's bearish sentiment we may see the down channel again..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #12,797
  • May 16, 2007 8:33am May 16, 2007 8:33am
I was thinking the same on my chart. At 1.9800 area there is a trendline, also 1.9800 is level people would put buy orders I believe.

I half expected a small bull retrace, wish I closed my shorts and repositioned them. Lets not get greedy

News has been good for dollar today so would expect further downside

Interesting to see what DOW and S&P does at opening bell
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #12,798
  • May 16, 2007 8:57am May 16, 2007 8:57am
HHmmm.The unexpected.Sometimes it put yourself to the test.But recently its to much.Great to gain experienced and superb on getting hurt.http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif
Start trading everyday with a simple mind, and everything seems very clear!
  • #12,799
  • May 16, 2007 9:09am May 16, 2007 9:09am
Quoting el_duende
I was thinking the same on my chart. At 1.9800 area there is a trendline, also 1.9800 is level people would put buy orders I believe.

I half expected a small bull retrace, wish I closed my shorts and repositioned them. Lets not get greedy

News has been good for dollar today so would expect further downside

Interesting to see what DOW and S&P does at opening bell
Just got back. US news was good but obviously not good enough. The market at the moment is fickle, especially as I just read elsewhere on the forum that a large Swiss bank are forecasting next UK interest rate hike to 5.75% in August. Not enough and timed for Mr Brown, I suspect.

Near to mid term I am still in the bear camp though.
  • #12,800
  • May 16, 2007 9:45am May 16, 2007 9:45am
I believe Mr Brown would not want interest rate rises, people in UK are struggling to pay huge mortgages to pay for super high house prices. Higher mortgage repayments each month will essentially mean less spending in the shops and retail will be affected.

Many young people like me cannot afford to buy a home. Also key workers such as police, nurses etc cannot afford to live in the cities due to high house prices and low wages. Increased interest rates will further make this an issue.

Politically it will not be good for Brown IMO and will not help the people of the UK who have a mountain of personal debt (record levels ever about £18000/$36000 or thereabouts and this excludes a mortgage!) . Mr Brown and his famed economy eh, hes not leaving a nice job to the next chancellor!

LIBOR rates have already been priced to 5.75%

I believe it will eventually happen but not til July/August. Inflation reports are key.
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