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Attachments: Cable Update (GBPUSD)
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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

Quoting el_duende
I believe Mr Brown would not want interest rate rises, people in UK are struggling to pay huge mortgages to pay for super high house prices. Higher mortgage repayments each month will essentially mean less spending in the shops and retail will be affected.

Many young people like me cannot afford to buy a home. Also key workers such as police, nurses etc cannot afford to live in the cities due to high house prices and low wages. Increased interest rates will further make this an issue.

Politically it will not be good for Brown IMO and will not help the people of the UK who have a mountain of personal debt (record levels ever about £18000/$36000 or thereabouts and this excludes a mortgage!) . Mr Brown and his famed economy eh, hes not leaving a nice job to the next chancellor!

LIBOR rates have already been priced to 5.75%

I believe it will eventually happen but not til July/August. Inflation reports are key.
My thoughts exactly.
But, the market doesn't have this common sense approach to valuing a currency, hence good US news and mixed GB news appears to mean a medium range market consolidation and not to sell GBP massively.
I can only assume that there are still major concerns about the US economy.

We shall see...
Quoting el_duende
I believe Mr Brown would not want interest rate rises, people in UK are struggling to pay huge mortgages to pay for super high house prices. Higher mortgage repayments each month will essentially mean less spending in the shops and retail will be affected.
If you remember 1989. Interest rates went up from 11% to 15% in a few months. I lost 30% of the equity in properties I owned virtually overnight in the UK when the market slumped.

Many suffered negative equity for years after. I'm not saying you'll ever see 11% again in the short term. My point is mortgage money is cheap. And if the rate doubled - extremely unlikely - then reposessions because of stupid income multiples when deciding how much to lend, up to 6 times salary, you would see a slump and make the 89 crash seem like a minor blip.
Do not focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have.
Quoting goonergonebad
Just got back. US news was good but obviously not good enough. The market at the moment is fickle, especially as I just read elsewhere on the forum that a large Swiss bank are forecasting next UK interest rate hike to 5.75% in August. Not enough and timed for Mr Brown, I suspect.

Near to mid term I am still in the bear camp though.
I believe that they raised it to 5.75 interim with a view that it would the come back down later in the year. I think the short sterling contracts fell but no massive affect on Cable.
Quoting el_duende
Many young people like me cannot afford to buy a home. Also key workers such as police, nurses etc cannot afford to live in the cities due to high house prices and low wages. Increased interest rates will further make this an issue.
I feel for you. Generally, when the average house price gets to 5 or more past the average salary we have a correction. We've passed that ages ago. The only thing that is keeping the wheels from falling off now in the UK housing market is relatively low interest rates. Albeit, on properties that are unaffordable for many. There will be a correction eventually. But I wouldn't like to put a date on it.
Do not focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have.
Anyone selling the cable from here at 1.9800???
I was 8 years old in 1989 lol cant remember much on the economic front.

There is a possability for something similar to happen to the housing market especially with rising rates and the high pound. High levels of personal debt in UK worries me.
Quoting goonergonebad
That last rally was a perfect retrace off the upward channel support trend line.

Good US news could test this support again and given today's bearish sentiment we may see the down channel again..
If the downtrend channel's resistance trend line holds we could be into Igrok's South Pole projection.
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Quoting el_duende
There is a possability for something similar to happen to the housing market especially with rising rates and the high pound. High levels of personal debt in UK worries me.
But for my part I don't want it to happen again. I remember the misery it caused - then I was in banking. Apart from that I've still got 1 house left over from that 1989.
Do not focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have.
is the down trend complete for the day? any opinions
Quoting Tatton
is the down trend complete for the day? any opinions
Pretty much yes.. however, if cable breaks 1.9750, then that opens the door for cable to go down as far as 1.9400.. of course, IMHO.
Closing short postions maybe a bit early but have some very nice profits.

Amazing how forex can treat you especially after I had my worst trading day ever trading the news yesterday.

Possible long entry formed on hourly chart, Try small stop and for small retrace
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We had 3 major tests of 9760-70 support in the last 7 days. The stronger was the test the stronger was the bounce. The 4th test today is weaker than the last one yesterday but as strong as the first two. These are my observations. I wonder what all this translates into from tech stand point?

I TP my latest short from 9841 at 9776 and will stand aside till I figure out this setup. Any help is appreciated. :-)
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Quoting x3m
We had 3 major tests of 9760-70 support in the last 7 days. The stronger was the test the stronger was the bounce. The 4th test today is weaker than the last one yesterday but as strong as the first two. These are my observations. I wonder what all this translates into from tech stand point?

I TP my latest short from 9841 at 9776 and will stand aside till I figure out this setup. Any help is appreciated. :-)
Personally, I think a break is possible because recent news is more positive US than GB.

JM2C
When the market is moving down (as it is today) it is better to watch for a retrace up to plan for going short, then to try to trade a retrace back up.
Quoting goonergonebad
Personally, I think a break is possible because recent news is more positive US than GB.

JM2C
Well, the US news we have ahead of us this week are not that great, while GB Retail Slaes on Friday are forcasted positive.
Do you guys think this a good entry point for going short term long??
Anyone taking new positions from this point?
why is everyone so awfully quiet???
Wait and see attitude for me, it has good support right now, if it breaks 741 I might consider going short. Figuring it will most likely hang in this area for a bit.
I only had a very small stop loss that was hit and my long didnt materialize. Suspect more downside to 1.9850
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