Cable Update (GBPUSD)

I found after the first few years that the best way to learn is to find others who know what they are talking about and learn from them.

The two best IMHO are Tom DeMark and Robert Miner. Since I couldn't afford to pay for a mentorship (would be in the tens of thousands of dollars) I bought both of their books and Tom DeMark's indicators which are no longer for sale to the public (only lease thru Bloomberg and CQG) and Robert Miner's software called Dynamic Trader.

I combine the indicators, which are used in TradeStation, with the software which is Elliot Wave/Fibonacci Ratio based to find setups.

Since I use them in TradeStation and not Metatrader and the fact they are password protected means there isn't a way for me to share them in case you thought to ask.

I have seen various forms of TD Sequential/Combo/REI etc etc here on the forum and some are close. But never exact.

how far is the cable expected to short today..

seems like much selling pressure is going on .. 1.9870 is a tough cookie to crack.. im expecting a short today

good day

if the cable hit 1.9880 we will see ... long not short ... better to wait for the news

Engulfing day yesterday, key reversal signal ?

20068 Apr 20 Hi

20007 May 1 Ret Hi

9999 May 9 Hi
9993 May 2 Hi
9984 Fib 21032 / 9745 61.8

9973 May 9 Intra Hi

9962 May 10 Hi
9947 May 10 Intra Hi

9939 Fib 21032 / 9745 50.0
9930/40 Offers Stronger
9927 SBR Med
9920 May 10 Ret Hi

9910 May 10 Ret Hi
9906 May 10 Ret Hi
9902 Fib 9999 / 9745 61.8
9900/10 Offers
9893 Fib 20132 / 9745 38.2

9873 Sess Hi
9872 May 15 Hi
9872 Fib 9999 / 9745 50.0







9845 Asian Lo
9844 RBS Strong
9837 May 14 Ret Lo
9826 RBS Med
9823 Fib 9745 / 9872 38.2
9820/5 Bids Key

9809 Fib 9745 / 9872 50.0

9794 Fib 9745 / 9872 61.8
9792 RBS Minor

9745 May 14 Lo

9724 Apr 12 Lo

9658 Fib 9183 / 20132 50.0

Wow, what a silence! As if they gonna drop a nuke at that inflation report.

Got to be good for a intraday long on a bounce of this cluster ?:



9847 Session Spike Lo
9845 Asian Lo
9844 Resistance Becomes Support
9837 May 14 Ret Lo
9826 Resistance Becomes Support
9823 Fib 9745 / 9872 38.2
9820/5 MNI Report Key Bids

is there any way to wach this report live, or is it just a document tipe report?


found it, lets watch

Just numbers I keep updating in a personal spreadsheet while I am trading. Good way to fund confluence at different price levels. Good to use for entries, targets and stop protection.

Yesterday out of nowhere a wild bull is loose. Now they are playing hide n destroy!

Wait for the UK Inflation Report.

That should give a clear signal where GBPUSD would go.

Watch cnbc, and read a lot of info on forex and trading. Its the only way to get the gist.

Where are you watching it?

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publi...eport/2007.htm

You can watch King's conference at www.bankofengland.co.uk

Overview of the Inflation Report
May 2007 (by BoE)

In the United Kingdom, solid growth in GDP has been maintained. Credit and broad money growth remained rapid. Household spending has been volatile but the underlying trend appears firm. Business investment gathered pace. The world economy continued to expand briskly. Under the assumption that Bank Rate follows market yields, the Committee’s central projection is for output growth to stay near its average over the past decade.
CPI inflation reached 3.1% in March. Regular pay growth remained subdued, though oil prices rebounded. The margin of spare capacity in firms appears to be relatively limited and businesses seem to have become more confident in their ability to raise prices. In the central projection, CPI inflation drops back, dipping a little below the 2% target before picking up to settle around the target in the medium term. The risks to growth are balanced, while those to inflation are weighted to the upside in the medium term.
Financial markets
International equity prices rebounded after a sharp fall in late February, triggered in part by heightened concerns about US prospects. Interest rate futures in the United Kingdom and the euro area rose, while US rates fell slightly. Short-term sterling rates suggested that market participants expected Bank Rate to rise towards 5.75% by the end of 2007, easing back a little subsequently. The effective exchange rate for sterling fell almost 2%, bringing it back to the top of the fairly narrow range which it has occupied for most of the past decade. That primarily reflected a depreciation against the euro, which more than offset a further appreciation against the dollar. The growth of credit and broad money remained rapid.
Domestic demand
The pattern of household spending was erratic through 2006 and that appears to have continued into early 2007. But smoothing through this volatility, underlying consumption growth has been near to its average over the past 20 years. Looking forward, household spending should be supported by a recovery in real take-home pay, helping to offset the drag from the increase in interest rates since last August.
Government spending has been a significant contributor to overall demand growth in recent years and that was maintained through 2006. According to the spending plans set out in the Budget, the public sector’s contribution to nominal demand growth is set to decline over the next few years. Business investment growth picked up noticeably during 2006. In part, that reflected unusually strong growth in the utility and energy sectors, some of which is likely to prove temporary. But more broadly, a lack of spare capacity and generally supportive financial conditions should ensure that capital spending remains robust in the near term. Surveys of investment intentions support this view.
Overseas trade
The pace of global expansion remained brisk, with signs of further rebalancing in the regional pattern of demand. Last year saw the most rapid growth in euro-area activity since the turn of the decade and business surveys point to continued healthy expansion. Output continued to grow strongly in Asia. By contrast, US GDP growth slowed further, reflecting weakness in both residential and business investment. Overall, the Committee expects demand in UK export markets to continue to grow robustly, albeit more slowly than over the past year.
Reflecting this buoyancy, UK export growth is estimated to have picked up in the latter part of 2006. That occurred despite a stronger exchange rate, with exporters preferring to absorb some of the appreciation in lower margins. Import growth remained robust, reflecting the strength in domestic demand. Net trade made a broadly neutral contribution in the final quarter of 2006, but reduced GDP growth over the year as a whole. It is expected to continue to subtract slightly from growth over the first part of the forecast period and make a broadly neutral contribution thereafter.
The outlook for GDP growth
According to the ONS's provisional estimate, GDP increased by 0.7% in the first quarter, in line with its average rate over the past decade. Output growth in the service sector remained strong and energy output rebounded. Manufacturing output is reported to have fallen but business surveys paint a more upbeat picture. Business surveys point to further solid growth in total output in the second quarter.
Chart 1 shows the Committee's best collective judgement of the outlook for four-quarter GDP growth, assuming that Bank Rate follows a path implied by market yields. The central projection is for output to grow roughly in line with its average rate over the past decade, slowing a little over the course of the forecast period as business investment and public spending decelerate. The profile is very similar to that in the February Report.

Chart 1
Current GDP projection based on market interest rate expectations

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publi...ktgdpmay07.gif

Please click on the image above to view an enlarged version of the chart.
The fan chart depicts the probability of various outcomes for GDP growth in the future. If economic circumstances identical to today's were to prevail on 100 occasions, the MPC's best collective judgement is that GDP growth over the subsequent three years would lie within the darkest central band on only 10 of those occasions. The fan chart is constructed so that outturns of GDP growth are also expected to lie within each pair of the lighter green areas on 10 occasions. Consequently, GDP growth is expected to lie somewhere within the entire fan chart on 90 out of 100 occasions. The bands widen as the time horizon is extended, indicating the increasing uncertainty about outcomes. See the box on pages 48-49 of the May 2002 Inflation Report for a fuller description of the fan chart and what it represents. The dashed line is drawn at the two-year point.


Costs and prices
CPI inflation reached 3.1% in March, prompting an open letter on behalf of the Committee from the Governor to the Chancellor of the Exchequer.(1) That was 1.3 percentage points higher than a year earlier. In accounting terms, higher domestic energy and food prices explain about half of that pickup. The contribution of domestic energy price inflation is set to fall sharply over the rest of this year, as already announced cuts in retail gas and electricity prices feed through and the rises last year drop out of the annual comparison. But the overall path of CPI inflation depends on what happens to other prices. That in turn depends on whether companies' pricing decisions are more responsive to cost pressures — which have moderated — or to their expectations of nominal demand — which appear robust.
Recent Reports have identified pay as a source of upside risk to the inflation outlook. But so far, pay pressures appear to have been muted. Private sector settlements are only marginally higher than last year. And although the contribution from bonus payments has increased, in large part reflecting the buoyancy of activity in financial services, regular pay growth has been broadly flat. The mildness of pay pressures probably reflects some combination of competitive pressures in product markets, higher unemployment since 2005 and the availability of migrant labour.
Other cost pressures eased in late 2006. Energy prices declined. And the inflation rates of a range of imported goods and services fell back, probably reflecting the impact of lower energy prices on input costs in other countries, as well as the earlier appreciation of sterling. These reduced cost pressures may not yet have fed through in full into output and consumer prices. Spot oil prices in sterling terms have, however, risen 17% since the February Report. And the recent depreciation in the effective exchange rate for sterling should raise import costs.
Business surveys and reports from the Bank's regional Agents continue to indicate that spare capacity within businesses is relatively limited. Although business investment has recovered, it would need to be sustained for capacity to rise significantly.
Business surveys, reports from the Bank's regional Agents and recent outturns for producer and consumer prices all suggest that some businesses have become more confident in their ability to make price increases stick. That could reflect delayed pass-through of the earlier rise in energy and other costs now that demand has recovered. It could also indicate upward pressure on prices caused by a shortage of capacity. And, against a background of rapid money and credit growth and buoyant nominal demand, it could be symptomatic of heightened inflation expectations leading businesses to believe that they can raise their own prices without reducing the demand for their product. Either of these latter two possibilities could imply more sustained inflationary pressure.
The outlook for inflation
Chart 2 shows the Committee's best collective judgement of the outlook for CPI inflation, assuming that Bank Rate follows market yields. In the central projection, inflation falls back sharply to below the target over the next year as the effect of lower domestic energy price inflation feeds through, partly offset by companies taking advantage of buoyant nominal demand to raise margins. It then edges back up to settle around the target, as the near-term falls in domestic energy prices drop out of the twelve-month rate. The profile is also similar to that contained in the February Report.
As usual, there are substantial uncertainties surrounding these projections. These include: the impact of stronger demand growth on companies' prices; the evolution of inflation expectations; prospects for energy and import prices; and the degree of spare capacity in the economy. As in February, there is greater-than-usual uncertainty over the outlook for inflation and the previous widening of the fan chart has been retained. Overall, the risks to growth are judged to be balanced, while the risks to inflation are balanced in the near term but weighted to the upside in the medium term. There is a range of views among the Committee on both the central projection and the balance of risks.

Chart 2
Current CPI inflation projection based on market interest rate expectations

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publi...ktcpimay07.gif

Please click on the image above to view an enlarged version of the chart.
The fan chart depicts the probability of various outcomes for CPI inflation in the future. If economic circumstances identical to today's were to prevail on 100 occasions, the MPC's best collective judgement is that inflation over the subsequent three years would lie within the darkest central band on only 10 of those occasions. The fan chart is constructed so that outturns of inflation are also expected to lie within each pair of the lighter red areas on 10 occasions. Consequently, inflation is expected to lie somewhere within the entire fan chart on 90 out of 100 occasions. The bands widen as the time horizon is extended, indicating the increasing uncertainty about outcomes. See the box on pages 48-49 of the May 2002 Inflation Report for a fuller description of the fan chart and what it represents. The dashed line is drawn at the two-year point.


The policy decision
The Committee noted at its May meeting that the central projection, under the assumption that Bank Rate followed market yields, was for inflation to fall back sharply in the near term and then to settle around the 2% target in the medium term. Given that outlook and bearing in mind that the balance of risks to inflation was to the upside, the Committee judged that an increase of 0.25 percentage points in Bank Rate to 5.5% was necessary to meet the target for CPI inflation over the medium term.
(1) The letter is available on the Bank's website at www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetarypoli...tter070417.pdf.

Oh sorry, pablo... Haven't read you already posted it

I am short at 9841

Why you think so ?

External forecasters are also asked about their central
expectations for Bank Rate and the sterling ERI. For Bank Rate,
the average central expectation was 5.1% in both 2009 Q2 and
2010 Q2. That was slightly higher than three months earlier,
but below the interest rates implied by market yields

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publi...rt/ir07may.pdf

I'm short at 9850 and want to take profit at 9796. I think short is the right direction for today, but I had expected a heavier move down until now.