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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #737,741
  • Mar 24, 2023 3:40pm Mar 24, 2023 3:40pm
Personally, I think the slowing down of Fed rate will be the main market driver
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #737,742
  • Mar 24, 2023 3:52pm Mar 24, 2023 3:52pm
Quoting trumps
Personally, I think the slowing down of Fed rate will be the main market driver
Everybody (country) seems to copy the FED.
  • #737,743
  • Mar 24, 2023 3:53pm Mar 24, 2023 3:53pm
Quoting trumps
Personally, I think the slowing down of Fed rate will be the main market driver
but BoE not helping either lol. USD is stronger though so should help move the pair up
Insane in the Brain..
  • #737,744
  • Mar 24, 2023 4:00pm Mar 24, 2023 4:00pm
Quoting dantpm
{quote} Everybody (country) seems to copy the FED.
Yep, but as the global reserve, the USD suffers more in a risk on environment
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #737,745
  • Mar 24, 2023 4:28pm Mar 24, 2023 4:28pm
Quoting Jolita
{quote} Hi Bones, I thought you will comment. Please share your view. Not clear view, but I googled picture image, and this was a suggestion. 1 day doesn't mean much, as weekly can override. We are on small daily resistance, showing signs of pause. Weekly hasn't completed it's target. Economies suggest bullish day. But we never know being a Friday. {image}
I meant could be I'm sticking to it breaking top rather than bottom, maybe new month required.
Inspiration is the quarterly and monthly right now.
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #737,746
  • Mar 24, 2023 4:35pm Mar 24, 2023 4:35pm
Quoting W0lfram
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Overall, as expected. Still probing last week vah. Maybe it'll give up next week.
Selling priority to me. 1.193 - 1.184
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Air force
  • #737,747
  • Mar 24, 2023 4:47pm Mar 24, 2023 4:47pm
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #737,748
  • Mar 24, 2023 6:48pm Mar 24, 2023 6:48pm
Quoting Bones
{quote} I meant could be I'm sticking to it breaking top rather than bottom, maybe new month required. Inspiration is the quarterly and monthly right now. {image}
Nice analysis. Thank you for this.

Yes, I agreeof a possibility monthly chart to test higher, 1.2440 area, at the moment candle formation made LL.
We are near the month end and quarter end. This quarter experts predicted to end around 1.18. Better this will fulfill my expectations.
You are seeking break out and I'm waiting for 1.18 or lower, wish I had the power to intervene.
UK in a big puzzle across a board of issues. BJ stil under investigation. inflation rising, cost of living skyrocketing. Train fairs will rise from tomorrow.
UK house market under my radar, we know where this will lead once will start to fall.

Your oil chat is neat and well drawn.
My reading to what I see is rise to 80 and enter lower range (mild temp).

Wish you best. Enjoy the weekend!
  • #737,749
  • Mar 25, 2023 12:06am Mar 25, 2023 12:06am
Quoting navk
{quote} I dunno if this drop today is due to profit booking after FOMC move.
Maybe, there's ongoing stuff with bank stocks getting hammered (DB) also, who knows what's going on in the background there. Might be more risk off today hence the short call. There's a liquidity pool under Mondays low I'm targeting.

I see this pair up above 1.2450 next week however
  • #737,750
  • Mar 25, 2023 12:39am Mar 25, 2023 12:39am
Quoting mysterio
{quote} Maybe, there's ongoing stuff with bank stocks getting hammered (DB) also, who knows what's going on in the background there. Might be more risk off today hence the short call. There's a liquidity pool under Mondays low I'm targeting. I see this pair up above 1.2450 next week however
Taking a closer look at Silicon Valley bank and Signature bank, it has become evident that the US is trying to trash crypto, not necessarily the banking industry. In fact, the FDIC told potential Signature buyers that they had to agree to NOT continue the crypto part of that bank. Also, the two largest accounts that were reported at SVB were crypto fund US dollars.

China also worked to destroy crypto just before introducing their cbdc. If I recall correctly, the ccp had to pay people to get them to try it and it fell flat.

Or, did it fall flat?

Was the ccp cbdc program just a trial run for the US using the ccp's cbdc on US citizens and the rest of the west?

The only possibility of the US coming through this is IF, and ONLY IF, the timing of everything was thrown off by Clinton not getting elected in 2016.

If cbdc takes over, will they leave anything for us to trade...if they control it all via payment and punishment via cbdc credits?
  • #737,751
  • Mar 25, 2023 2:14am Mar 25, 2023 2:14am
The inflation that the FED is fighting right now was caused by the FED increasing the money supply as the government dealt with Covid 19, the free money given to people and the wage increases required to get them back to work.
Nothing in the cause about economic expansion or interest rates.
In the background, the US/Ukraine war against Russia is a significant economic drain of resources.
The FED implemented a solution to raise interest rates not correctly identifying the cause of inflation and causing problems for small banks.
To protect the small banks the FED increases the money supply again. (Essentially money previously held by small banks gets transferred to larger banks)
Isn't this going to cause even more significant problems? More inflation?
What is needed is economic growth to offset the war drain and take steps to reduce the money supply. Interest rates aren't going to fix the problem!
I see more volatility for all currency pairs as this unfolds because of how the FED, all the central banks and governments are handling the current situation!
  • #737,752
  • Mar 25, 2023 2:34am Mar 25, 2023 2:34am
Quoting dantpm
The inflation that the FED is fighting right now was caused by the FED increasing the money supply as the government dealt with Covid 19, the free money given to people and the wage increases required to get them back to work. Nothing in the cause about economic expansion or interest rates. In the background, the US/Ukraine war against Russia is a significant economic drain of resources. The FED implemented a solution to raise interest rates not correctly identifying the cause of inflation and causing problems for small banks. To protect the small...
I certainly hope so. It would be a sad state of affairs if the pairs flatlined.
  • #737,753
  • Mar 25, 2023 3:25am Mar 25, 2023 3:25am
Quoting Nala66
{quote} I certainly hope so. It would be a sad state of affairs if the pairs flatlined.
I don't believe there is any chance of flatlining, more likely increased volatility as central banks etc try to cope!
  • #737,754
  • Mar 25, 2023 5:35am Mar 25, 2023 5:35am
Looking at the daily chart, both EU and GU should drop some more next week.

And Jim Cramer saying Deutsche Bank is fine is not very good for European bulls either.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #737,755
  • Edited 10:08am Mar 25, 2023 5:41am | Edited 10:08am
Quoting dantpm
The inflation that the FED is fighting right now was caused by the FED increasing the money supply as the government dealt with Covid 19, the free money given to people and the wage increases required to get them back to work. Nothing in the cause about economic expansion or interest rates. In the background, the US/Ukraine war against Russia is a significant economic drain of resources. The FED implemented a solution to raise interest rates not correctly identifying the cause of inflation and causing problems for small banks. To protect the small...
What is every central bank in the West wrong?
The whole point of QE is interest rates; when the FED buys all the debt, rates artificially go to 0%.
QT is the opposite effect on rates.

The FED is taking existing debt onto its balance sheet from the small banks and swapping it with cash, and they're the same thing.
Treasuries are risk-free, and safer than cash, so banks are encouraged to diversify into them.
The bailout comes with the debt being worth less until maturity and the FED paying Par Value. It is limited to a year, but the markets have to believe it?

If you accept it will end in a year the banks need to make sure that cash is available to buy back the treasuries.

I've always thought the QT operation is the thing to break the market while raising rates like that.
Inserted Video

“The macro backdrop in Turkey remains poor. Real interest rates are deeply negative, the current account deficit is widening and short-term external debts remain large,” he wrote. “It may not take a significant tightening of global financial conditions for investor risk sentiment towards Turkey to sour and add more downward pressure on the lira.”
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #737,756
  • Mar 25, 2023 5:49am Mar 25, 2023 5:49am
Quoting Jolita
{quote} Nice analysis. Thank you for this. Yes, I agreeof a possibility monthly chart to test higher, 1.2440 area, at the moment candle formation made LL. We are near the month end and quarter end. This quarter experts predicted to end around 1.18. Better this will fulfill my expectations. You are seeking break out and I'm waiting for 1.18 or lower, wish I had the power to intervene. UK in a big puzzle across a board of issues. BJ stil under investigation. inflation rising, cost of living skyrocketing. Train fairs will rise from tomorrow. UK house...

I'm bullish oil and believe the oil weekly, maybe it wants confirm, it's right on that established broken line
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #737,757
  • Mar 25, 2023 9:47am Mar 25, 2023 9:47am
I’ve totally missed this but,, Metatrader is back on app store!
How come the change in policy?
You have an IQ lower than 90 if you interact with this user.
  • #737,758
  • Edited 10:40am Mar 25, 2023 10:25am | Edited 10:40am
GU UP....................1.24471

SELL 1.24471.............. 1.19038

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  • #737,759
  • Mar 25, 2023 10:40am Mar 25, 2023 10:40am
Quoting Ferna
I’ve totally missed this but,, Metatrader is back on app store! How come the change in policy?
NO WAY! FINALLY

Thanks for the share!! I really had no idea . I still had it the whole time but now I don’t gotta worry
Master your mind. Master Trading.
  • #737,760
  • Mar 25, 2023 4:38pm Mar 25, 2023 4:38pm
Quoting Bones
{quote} I'm bullish oil and believe the oil weekly, maybe it wants confirm, it's right on that established broken line
I've closed my sell trade.
WTI crude futures slumped more than 3% to below $68 per barrel on Friday, as US Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm told lawmakers that it will be “difficult” to refill strategic oil reserves this year, prompting speculations that the US government would only start buying at even lower prices'.

Something tells me bearish trade still on.
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I've signed for a Crude challenge next week, will do some research tomorrow.
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