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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #726,321
  • Feb 4, 2023 11:09pm Feb 4, 2023 11:09pm
Quoting Jolita
{quote} Majority adding buys, not sells. Asia session will sell GU to 11940 on Sunday. One way traffic is my view.
Yeah, this is also my thinking. We'll see..
  • #726,322
  • Feb 5, 2023 12:29am Feb 5, 2023 12:29am
Quoting Georginson
{quote} Hello Jolita, let me give you a quick stat to give you some clues as regards why I'm saying upwards looks much more likely without necessarily overuling 1.1940 before 1.2200 then 1.2600 Quick Stat ✓The Highest first 4 trade days range of the month since February 2018 is 442 pips... Which happened in February 2018, while the second highest happened in October 2022 being 414 pips, third highest happened in November 2022 being 409 pips... ✓In the first 3 trade days of February so far, we already have 353 pips which is 90 pips...
200SMA on DAILY sits @1.1950, which is exactly coincide with your lows. It might make a new FEBRUARY pullback of more than 450 pips guessing 1.1950 - 1.1930.
On PA level, weekly closing of below 1.20 would make this momentum going further. A test of 1.1930 and pullback to 1.2150 - 1.22 and sideways for the rest of the month possibly 1.1750 - 1.22 is a likely scenario.
  • #726,323
  • Edited 1:55am Feb 5, 2023 1:17am | Edited 1:55am
Looking at the main potential supp/rbs factors below last wk's lo, and to the immediate downside:

Fibs (always fibs lol!) List below.

a. 1956 Mthly S1
b. The next potentially most significant fib to the downside is:
1949 23.6% 0327-2448
c. Prev 1hr/minor 4hr sw hi zone that starts circa 1934-1919 = prev res = pot rbs.
d. Prev 4hr/dly/minor wkly sw lo zone=prev supp=pot supp that extends on;
Wkly - is very wide
Dly - circa 1888-1840
4Hr - circa 1855-1840

Obviously there will likely be Dly Pivots too, and maybe a new wkly pivot also?

Immediate near-term Downside fibs below.
Attached Image
Trader with an Edge.
  • #726,324
  • Feb 5, 2023 1:19am Feb 5, 2023 1:19am
Quoting trumps
{quote} it’s not double speak. MD was all about how you mentally approach your trading. Once you have found an edge, then continue to exploit it regardless of individual losses. Manage your trade size so your account stays solvent long enough to benefit from the edge you are trading. In his mind, this is what the best traders do, rather than hoping and praying each individual trade works out, and quitting your approach when a string of losses occur.
i find when they have worked for a broker they give there side , its not rocket science every book i have read says the same things and is broker biased , only part i agree is the mental side all have to conquer even the ones that work for the brokerages have to do it you are not born with trading skill its learnt , most don't even what chart does or what candles do what , i do understand what you are saying , but most cant be bothered with the trivia thats why they fail
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #726,325
  • Feb 5, 2023 1:31am Feb 5, 2023 1:31am
Quoting ninner
{quote} I would wait for bullish evidence around 1.20. Hope this helps
I don't even have 15M confirming Long yet, it's near though, however I wouldn't put much trust in it even if it confirms Long. I would need to see at least gray line (R) to be broken (somewhat convincingly) on 30M to start considering going Long.
  • #726,326
  • Edited 2:33am Feb 5, 2023 1:36am | Edited 2:33am
I wonder - has anything changed fundamentally in the minds of 'Big' traders/institutions/banks/hedge funds etc (ie: those that move the market,) re last week's data?

On the one hand we have what was interpreted as a more dovish tone from the Fed/Fomc . Then we had a more dovish tone too from the Boe/Mpc, and then the exceptional NFP #. There are at present so many conflicting clues from both sides...unlike any other times really. For example - Potentially both U.s and Uk economies on verge of recession, (although I think to some extent we talk ourselves into them - but that's another point,) but there are on both sides very 'tight' labour markets. I'm glad I am a technical trader, it's a difficult fundamental environment to interpret accurately at the moment.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #726,327
  • Feb 5, 2023 2:08am Feb 5, 2023 2:08am
Quoting Aussi
{quote} i find when they have worked for a broker they give there side , its not rocket science every book i have read says the same things and is broker biased , only part i agree is the mental side all have to conquer even the ones that work for the brokerages have to do it you are not born with trading skill its learnt , most don't even what chart does or what candles do what , i do understand what you are saying , but most cant be bothered with the trivia thats why they fail
This pretty much supports my point? Or more to the point, MD point? I find it is pertinent to me, but for different reasons. I have a couple of conformation systems that put the odds heavily in my favour (very strong edge), but my curiosity (translate this as my own technical and some fundamental analysis), has been what's brought me undone. Oh yeah, this and greed, leading to poor money management etc. But mainly, not trusting my lazy systems, which require no thinking on my part. I am taking serious steps towards switching my brain off and just going with my system signal flows. Watch this space.....
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #726,328
  • Feb 5, 2023 2:11am Feb 5, 2023 2:11am
Quoting Fardeen1209
Can someone who really understood and put into practice, please explain what Mark Douglass (from Trading in the zone) try to say about this statement "What separate the best trader from everyone else is not about what they do or when they do it but rather how they think about what they do and how they are thinking about when they do it" Would really appreciate your help to decode what he is trying to say. Regards
Hey Bro, wishing you a very good weekends..

Mark Douglas, author of "Trading in the Zone," emphasizes the importance of a trader's mindset in determining success.
He believes that what separates the best traders from others is not the specific strategies or techniques they employ, but rather their mindset and the way they think about their trades.

In essence, Douglas is saying that it's not just about what a trader does, but how they think about what they do and the underlying beliefs and attitudes that guide their decision-making process.

He suggests that traders who have a clear understanding of their beliefs and biases, and who are able to maintain a calm and focused mindset even in the face of market volatility, are better equipped to make rational decisions and achieve success in their trading.

In other words, Douglas believes that a trader's mindset plays a critical role in their ability to manage risk, make sound trading decisions, and ultimately achieve long-term success in the markets.

That's what my understanding in reading his book.
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #726,329
  • Feb 5, 2023 2:18am Feb 5, 2023 2:18am
Listening to PINK right now (get the party started).
Got me thinking, that's one heck of a bearish weekly candle.
Looking towards support 1645 area.

I don't think I'll be selling, unless we get a serious retrace, but will be looking for buy signals from down there.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #726,330
  • Feb 5, 2023 2:20am Feb 5, 2023 2:20am
Quoting Aussi
{quote} i find when they have worked for a broker they give there side , its not rocket science every book i have read says the same things and is broker biased , only part i agree is the mental side all have to conquer even the ones that work for the brokerages have to do it you are not born with trading skill its learnt , most don't even what chart does or what candles do what , i do understand what you are saying , but most cant be bothered with the trivia thats why they fail
G'day, mate,.........How ya goin'?
Hope you're having fun down under...

Not blaming you for seeing opposite of what we have in discussion...
As Australians you see the moon "the other way around".
So it goes all other stuff too.....that's okey...
Here' the pic.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: auzzie moon.jpg Size: 32 KB


And I'm sure, knowing you as my buddy, that in no way has anything to do with this.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: lager.jpg Size: 47 KB


Take care & best wishes
PAT
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #726,331
  • Feb 5, 2023 2:25am Feb 5, 2023 2:25am
Quoting Ferna
{quote} It's there by law too. {image}
That cannot be real, it's implanted with silicone ..
Thus , it may be a fake inflation.
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #726,332
  • Feb 5, 2023 2:28am Feb 5, 2023 2:28am
Quoting Headland
I wonder - has anything changed fundamentally in the minds of 'Big' traders/institutions/banks/hedge funds etc (ie: those that move the market,) re last week's data? On the one hand we have what was interpreted as a more dovish tone from the Fed/Fomc . Then we had a more dovish tone too from the Boe/Mpc, and then the exceptional NFP #. There are at present so many conflicting clues from both sides...unlike any other times really. For example - Potentially both U.s and Uk economies on verge of recession, (although I think to so extent we talk ourselves...
It's difficult to say what changes, if any, have taken place in the minds of "big" traders, institutions, banks, and hedge funds in response to a specific piece of data without more context.

These entities often have access to a wider range of information and market analysis (some kind of chaeting.), and their decision-making can be influenced by a multitude of factors, including global economic trends, geopolitical events, and their own risk management strategies.

Additionally, it's important to note that the actions of "big" traders can also influence market sentiment and drive price movements, regardless of whether there has been a fundamental change in their outlook.
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #726,333
  • Feb 5, 2023 2:32am Feb 5, 2023 2:32am
Quoting SnailFX
{quote} I don't even have 15M confirming Long yet, it's near though, however I wouldn't put much trust in it even if it confirms Long. I would need to see at least gray line (R) to be broken (somewhat convincingly) on 30M to start considering going Long.
Thanks Snail.

I wait for your signal, but you need to up the speed a bit, not at snail pace.

Thanks

PAT
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #726,334
  • Feb 5, 2023 2:34am Feb 5, 2023 2:34am
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} G'day, mate,.........How ya goin'? Hope you're having fun down under... Not blaming you for seeing opposite of what we have in discussion... As Australians you see the moon "the other way around". So it goes all other stuff too.....that's okey... Here' the pic.{image} And I'm sure, knowing you as my buddy, that in no way has anything to do with this.{image} Take care & best wishes PAT
Arvo Pat , yes was a nice day cloudy and 23 , i always love what you put ,refreshing and to the point i no longer drink anymore since my stroke i dont miss it now but it is part of the aussie heritage barbbies and grog as you know at least a can dream about it
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #726,335
  • Feb 5, 2023 2:37am Feb 5, 2023 2:37am
Quoting Georginson
{quote} Hello Jolita, let me give you a quick stat to give you some clues as regards why I'm saying upwards looks much more likely without necessarily overuling 1.1940 before 1.2200 then 1.2600 Quick Stat ✓The Highest first 4 trade days range of the month since February 2018 is 442 pips... Which happened in February 2018, while the second highest happened in October 2022 being 414 pips, third highest happened in November 2022 being 409 pips... ✓In the first 3 trade days of February so far, we already have 353 pips which is 90 pips...
a trader who knows historical data
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #726,336
  • Feb 5, 2023 2:39am Feb 5, 2023 2:39am
Quoting Aussi
{quote} Arvo Pat , yes was a nice day cloudy and 23 , i always love what you put ,refreshing and to the point i no longer drink anymore since my stroke i dont miss it now but it is part of the aussie heritage barbbies and grog as you know at least a can dream about it
I'm glad you stay healty and fit.
Please maintain that, all friends here appreciate your view (for or aginst... we fight our point, the professional ways).

BTW, pleasee , stop feeding the kangaroo......let they have some privacy please.......
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: not now.jpg Size: 41 KB
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #726,337
  • Feb 5, 2023 2:41am Feb 5, 2023 2:41am
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} I'm glad you stay healty and fit. Please maintain that, all friends here appreciate your view (for or aginst... we fight our point, the professional ways). BTW, pleasee , stop feeding the kangaroo......let they have some privacy please.......{image}
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #726,338
  • Feb 5, 2023 2:56am Feb 5, 2023 2:56am
Quoting Coreg2004
{quote} Jolita, you might be correct. Only closing above 1.2263 on the daily chart invalidates this setup.{image}The case for more downside. W:1 had only 3 swings (ABC) the wave is impulsive, meaning we should see a 1-2-3-4-5 pattern to the downside.{image}and because W: C exceeded 1.618 ext of W: 1 the current low @1.2047 might be W:3 and W: 4 to follow.{image}https://www.tradingfives.com/article...wave-guide.htm

Hello Coreg,
Thank you so much for sharing your knowledge and expertise.
Your information has been incredibly helpful and has made a big difference in my understanding of the topic.
I truly appreciate your time and effort in putting this information together.
Thank you again!
(that's the official version).


The fun version... good stuff you've posted, now can have a drink at nears bars.... Tell me the time to meet..

PAT
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #726,339
  • Feb 5, 2023 3:03am Feb 5, 2023 3:03am
Quoting Headland
I wonder - has anything changed fundamentally in the minds of 'Big' traders/institutions/banks/hedge funds etc (ie: those that move the market,) re last week's data? On the one hand we have what was interpreted as a more dovish tone from the Fed/Fomc . Then we had a more dovish tone too from the Boe/Mpc, and then the exceptional NFP #. There are at present so many conflicting clues from both sides...unlike any other times really. For example - Potentially both U.s and Uk economies on verge of recession, (although I think to some extent we talk ourselves...
Powell was interpreted as dowish, but wasn't. NFP just showed a middle finger to everyone. We'll see what FOMC member will say, because with unemployment this low, they can continue to hike perhaps even above their prior target. What does Powell say? Powell: I want higher unemployment (he doesn't say this but it's what he wants) and price stability (lower inflation). He has even lower unemployment now haha.. this is a great chance for Powell to deliver and go berserk (more rate hikes and for longer). USD will definitely get some fresh air in the coming week or two.
  • #726,340
  • Feb 5, 2023 3:04am Feb 5, 2023 3:04am
Quoting Aussi
{quote} a trader who knows historical data
Thanks mate...
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
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