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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #725,221
  • Feb 1, 2023 9:41am Feb 1, 2023 9:41am
What happens when DXY goes up?
For example, an index value of 120 suggests that the U.S. dollar has strengthened by 20% against a basket of currencies over a given period of time. In other words, if the DXY is going up, it means that the USD is gaining strength or value relative to other currencies.
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
  • #725,222
  • Feb 1, 2023 9:41am Feb 1, 2023 9:41am
Quoting dantpm
{quote} One more try. Not trying to cause trouble. If you see a + significant move in the GU since the GU is part of the USDX you expect that the GU component of the USDX would go up a small bit and since this is in the denominator of the GU, the underlying impact is very small. If at the same time, you see a + significant move in the GU you also see a + significant move in the USDX, some other currency is having a very big impact on the USDX. If the signs are reversed, the 'other currency' impacting the USDX requires an even larger impact.
sorry, I don t have another idea :
all the answers are on the chart, to use the GU chart for GU, the UJ chart for UJ, the DXY chart for DXY
  • #725,223
  • Feb 1, 2023 9:44am Feb 1, 2023 9:44am
Quoting dantpm
I always find it curious when GU and USDX trade in the same direction or UJ and USDX trade in the opposite direction. It always stops me from entering a trade.
when GU and USDX trade in the same direction
When that happens, take a look at EURUSD and EURGBP. If EURUSD is running opposite to GU/USDX, then it is highly likely that EURGBP is the preferred pair at the moment.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #725,224
  • Feb 1, 2023 9:45am Feb 1, 2023 9:45am
Quoting dantpm
{quote} One more try. Not trying to cause trouble. If you see a + significant move in the GU since the GU is part of the USDX you expect that the GU component of the USDX would go up a small bit and since this is in the denominator of the GU, the underlying impact is very small. If at the same time, you see a + significant move in the GU you also see a + significant move in the USDX, some other currency is having a very big impact on the USDX. If the signs are reversed, the 'other currency' impacting the USDX requires an even larger impact.
The DXY is essentilly the EUR_USD as the weighting nearly negates the other currencies. This is a common issue with most indexes. The SP500 for example is moved mainly by only two stocks, AAPL, Apple, and MSFT, Microsoft.

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Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #725,225
  • Feb 1, 2023 9:45am Feb 1, 2023 9:45am
With volatility like this, it's a paradise for pips scalpers.

I just tried that, to make sure I still remember how to do it. I almost do not do it since the beginning of trading. I know scalping can be profitable, but I also know the cost, both mentally and physically, as well as the tangible costs that you can end up paying more, than just paying swap fees (if holding in reverse carry direction).

That was a quick 20 pips scalp. It felt electric. Just to kick start the new Fed-shock season.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #725,226
  • Feb 1, 2023 9:49am Feb 1, 2023 9:49am
Quoting KareemAliFx
{quote} uhhh… well it’s actually quite simple. Since all those pairs have the same base currency USD, if USD weakens all those pairs weaken, vice versa, if USD strengthens then any pair that has USD also strengthens
No, it is not QUITE that simple. Because the strength of the XXX currency MUST be included.

For example, USDX goes up, so USDXXX is expected to go up due to the strengthening dollar. However, what if XXX also strengthens, and it is even stronger than USD?
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #725,227
  • Feb 1, 2023 9:50am Feb 1, 2023 9:50am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} when GU and USDX trade in the same direction When that happens, take a look at EURUSD and EURGBP. If EURUSD is running opposite to GU/USDX, then it is highly likely that EURGBP is the preferred pair at the moment.
yes but I won't be rich in EG trading
  • #725,228
  • Feb 1, 2023 9:51am Feb 1, 2023 9:51am
I just realized GU is going sideways when UJ is dropping, EU NZDUSD, pairs against USD is rising. :o

And my broker just crashed. Nothing is moving....
Exhausted
  • #725,229
  • Feb 1, 2023 9:52am Feb 1, 2023 9:52am
Quoting dantpm
{quote} One more try. Not trying to cause trouble. If you see a + significant move in the GU since the GU is part of the USDX you expect that the GU component of the USDX would go up a small bit and since this is in the denominator of the GU, the underlying impact is very small. If at the same time, you see a + significant move in the GU you also see a + significant move in the USDX, some other currency is having a very big impact on the USDX. If the signs are reversed, the 'other currency' impacting the USDX requires an even larger impact.
When DXY is moving, WE who have to find the reason of DXY move and which currency is moving. If USD is moving the index, this will affect all currency pairs. On major news of USD, index moves fast...so do all six currencies.
But on High impact news of one of six currencies...that pair moves and index also...We need to figure out which currency is moving it. In such case there is nothing to do with all other five currencies.
Regards
  • #725,230
  • Feb 1, 2023 9:53am Feb 1, 2023 9:53am
Quoting Yngwie
Sold 1.2342
hate it. closed for 22 pips
Live trade ~ GBPUSD only. No chart! Follow at your own risk!
  • #725,231
  • Edited 10:08am Feb 1, 2023 9:54am | Edited 10:08am
AI switched to "trading against Robin" mode. Just look at the wierd chart thereafter. No fear swing trading
Robotics
Target 1.0590

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POSTMASTER
  • #725,232
  • Feb 1, 2023 9:56am Feb 1, 2023 9:56am
Quoting KareemAliFx
{quote} i was trying to get my point across that’s all, if Pair A and pair B both share USD then whatever happens to USD performance wise will have an affect on both pairs
Of course every pair that includes USD is affected by the strength of USD. But you've oversimplified it by neglecting to include the strength of the other currency in each pair.

Look at GBPUSD and EURUSD this week. Look at M15 and H1 and see how many times they were moving in opposite directions, TELLING you to trade EURGBP because EUR was kicking USD's ass.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #725,233
  • Feb 1, 2023 9:57am Feb 1, 2023 9:57am
Swing trading. Target 1.3900. Major bottom 1.3287

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POSTMASTER
  • #725,234
  • Feb 1, 2023 9:59am Feb 1, 2023 9:59am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} when GU and USDX trade in the same direction When that happens, take a look at EURUSD and EURGBP. If EURUSD is running opposite to GU/USDX, then it is highly likely that EURGBP is the preferred pair at the moment.
I also look at EURGBP sometimes to determine which currency will do better on that particular day. If I have short confirmation then I usually trade GBP/USD and the other way around. Today, I didn't look at EUR/GBP and I should have, because I would bought Euro vs USD and not GBP.
  • #725,235
  • Feb 1, 2023 9:59am Feb 1, 2023 9:59am
took short eu
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yes yes yes
  • #725,236
  • Feb 1, 2023 10:00am Feb 1, 2023 10:00am
Quoting cchin
With volatility like this, it's a paradise for pips scalpers. I just tried that, to make sure I still remember how to do it. I almost do not do it since the beginning of trading. I know scalping can be profitable, but I also know the cost, both mentally and physically, as well as the tangible costs that you can end up paying more, than just paying swap fees (if holding in reverse carry direction). That was a quick 20 pips scalp. It felt electric. Just to kick start the new Fed-shock season. {image} {image}
Exactly, it is risky if the trade was not tread cautiously.
Any small profits should be taken asap before the market reverses.
Exhausted
  • #725,237
  • Feb 1, 2023 10:01am Feb 1, 2023 10:01am
Quoting Robinhood1
Swing trading. Target 1.3900. Major bottom 1.3287 {image}
Account B.

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POSTMASTER
  • #725,238
  • Feb 1, 2023 10:02am Feb 1, 2023 10:02am
Quoting maxi444
{quote} yes, all the answers are on the chart, to use the GU chart for GU, the UJ chart for UJ, the DXY chart for DXY good luck!
That is a naive approach, similar to running your engine on 1 cylinder rather than using all 6 cylinders: You can get to your destination both ways, but it will likely not be as smooth or efficient on 1 cylinder as on 6.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #725,239
  • Feb 1, 2023 10:07am Feb 1, 2023 10:07am
Quoting maxi444
{quote} yes but I won't be rich in EG trading
That was not the point of that topic. Not likely you would get any richer if you tried instead to trade EURUSD at that time, either.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #725,240
  • Feb 1, 2023 10:09am Feb 1, 2023 10:09am
Quoting Moty
took short eu {image} {image}
I'm short in GU now.

I was complaining about GU being slow like an old lady 3 hours ago and now it's moving wildly.
Exhausted
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