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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #714,601
  • Dec 15, 2022 5:08am Dec 15, 2022 5:08am
...finally started the move after price had 'unwound' off the lo back inside 1hr 20bol, the 5min bearish hidden div playing out (for now at least) @ that 38.2% fib of y/day and current wkly hi - current dly lo move. Nice 15min and 30min hammer trigger closes.

1hr below
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #714,602
  • Dec 15, 2022 5:09am Dec 15, 2022 5:09am
Aim for the timing to fall.
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Is our house in an anagura?（我が家も穴倉に？）non-english translation
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  • #714,603
  • Dec 15, 2022 5:15am Dec 15, 2022 5:15am
...next 3 fib clusters to downside are 2270-76, then 2235-40. An (aforementioned) 4 fib cluster @/around current dly lo.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #714,604
  • Dec 15, 2022 5:17am Dec 15, 2022 5:17am
Quoting Moty
Hit me baby one more time {image}
Is that in reference to your stoploss ?
  • #714,605
  • Dec 15, 2022 5:22am Dec 15, 2022 5:22am
Quoting genadi
sold gold (small position) pretty scary trade
I want to buy GU but I saw a better structure at Gold. Will set BE fast.
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The market hides a perfect geometry.
  • #714,606
  • Dec 15, 2022 5:23am Dec 15, 2022 5:23am
...now challenging bottom of prev 30min sw hi zone = prev res = pot res, to current p/back hi @ that 38.2% fib.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #714,607
  • Dec 15, 2022 5:36am Dec 15, 2022 5:36am
Quoting dantpm
{quote} There are several ways that the BOE could boost GU. Rates and treasuries are the most common. What bank rate are you suggesting? What statements are you expecting?
Bank of England is not so out spoken and not disclosing its concerns clearly. Today's rate hike is not clear...previous was .75 % and today's expectation is .50 but most of legit economists are expecting 0.50-0.75% rate increase with Hawkish tone sp QE is expected to be discussed.
But things are still mysterious and big volatility is expected today. If rate hike is over 0.50% then expect Hawkish BoE and Bulls Rock with more than 150 Pips Up. While is rate increase is 0.50% then GU is already priced in this rate hike and 30-50 Pips volatility is expected.
There is no Presser of BoE, expect meeting minutes to cause volatility based on above mentioned grounds.
Regards,
Kashif
  • #714,608
  • Dec 15, 2022 5:46am Dec 15, 2022 5:46am
Quoting Indigo45
{quote} Bank of England is not so out spoken and not disclosing its concerns clearly. Today's rate hike is not clear...previous was .75 % and today's expectation is .50 but most of legit economists are expecting 0.50-0.75% rate increase with Hawkish tone sp QE is expected to be discussed. But things are still mysterious and big volatility is expected today. If rate hike is over 0.50% then expect Hawkish BoE and Bulls Rock with more than 150 Pips Up. While is rate increase is 0.50% then GU is already priced in this rate hike and 30-50 Pips volatility...
I wouldn't have thought any member of the Mpc will vote for an expansion of Qe which is 'accommodative,' (unless it is measures to 'unwind' it's balance sheet re previous Qe,) whilst at the same 'tightening' with a +0.5% or more rise.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #714,609
  • Dec 15, 2022 5:50am Dec 15, 2022 5:50am
Quoting Headland
{quote} I wouldn't have thought any member of the Mpc will vote for an expansion of Qe which is 'accommodative,' (unless it is measures to 'unwind' it's balance sheet re previous Qe,) whilst at the same 'tightening' with a +0.5% or more rise.
Yes in current scenario this looks obvious.
  • #714,610
  • Dec 15, 2022 5:58am Dec 15, 2022 5:58am
Come on!!!!!
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yes yes yes
  • #714,611
  • Dec 15, 2022 6:02am Dec 15, 2022 6:02am
Stale mate? Again. Might go back up to 12350-60 area
Insane in the Brain..
  • #714,612
  • Dec 15, 2022 6:02am Dec 15, 2022 6:02am
Quoting Moty
Come on!!!!! {image}
Yes!!!!!!!!!
Baby !!!!
I like it !!!!
,
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yes yes yes
  • #714,613
  • Dec 15, 2022 6:07am Dec 15, 2022 6:07am
Quoting BeeTogether
Stale mate? Again. Might go back up to 12350-60 area

I would expect it to continue to drop. Have to wait on the EU...
  • #714,614
  • Dec 15, 2022 6:08am Dec 15, 2022 6:08am
7 - 0 - 2.
Goodbye 1.24.. was nice meeting you!

If not today, tommorow Pound is as good as dead. Still ECB to fail with Euro and then Euro should drag the Pound down with it.
  • #714,615
  • Dec 15, 2022 6:11am Dec 15, 2022 6:11am
...it hasn't yet but could see a 4hr bullish hidden div develop on any further drop whilst price is above 2205. The 7-2 vote split is theoretically bearish?

1hr below
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #714,616
  • Dec 15, 2022 6:13am Dec 15, 2022 6:13am
BoE was rather dovish this time around. Not surprising, given UK fundamentals not really supporting more aggressive moves.

As I earlier guessed, BOE decision was split by 6-3, in favour of 50 bps hike.

I wrongly expected two MPC members to vote for 25 bps. They did not, they voted for NIL. One member actually went above, voted for 75 bps.

Regardless, I'm now leaning toward shorting the pound, if not via this Cable pair, then will be on the many GBP crosses.
  • #714,617
  • Dec 15, 2022 6:15am Dec 15, 2022 6:15am
Quoting JayBag
Buy setup formed on M15. Now, I wait for a serial entry on lower TF. The level to watch for entry is 1.230676. Let's see.
I am in.
Target would be 1.24669.

Let's see
  • #714,618
  • Dec 15, 2022 6:16am Dec 15, 2022 6:16am
Quoting Headland
...will be looking for a good strong reaction to Boe/Mpc later - will see - may not get it on this one? But if it is, these are my preferred lower t/f plays (5min and below, generally on 1min triggers. ) On really good strong reactions to data etc you can get all 3, or at least 2 of the 3. 1. Get involved with any momentum (spreads allowing.) 2. Buy the 1st lo, or sell the 1st hi 3. Sell the 1st p/back / buy the 1st p/back respectively re 2. above.
How did the 1, 2 and 3 plays fare?

Well, my broker widened to a 6 -8pip spread so it was a bit of a risk selling the momentum but I did anyway for +14pips, then I didn't buy the 1st lo because on 1min it closed right on pot 1hr sbr, but I did sell the 1st pullback...+11pips as the spread had settled back down by then. That 1, 2, 3 is a classic data react pattern.

Quoting JayBag
{quote} I am in. Target would be 1.24669. Let's see
Bullish regular div on 5min and 15min @ the current dly lo. G/L.

15min below
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #714,619
  • Dec 15, 2022 6:23am Dec 15, 2022 6:23am
Cable still Bullish for me
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!! Radha Radha !!
  • #714,620
  • Dec 15, 2022 6:26am Dec 15, 2022 6:26am
Quoting Headland
{quote} How did the 1, 2 and 3 plays fare? Well, my broker widened to a 6 -8pip spread so it was a bit of a risk selling the momentum but I did anyway for +14pips, then I didn't buy the 1st lo because on 1min it closed right on pot 1hr sbr, but I did sell the 1st pullback...+11pips as the spread had settled back down by then. That 1, 2, 3 is a classic data react pattern. {quote} Bullish regular div on 5min and 15min @ the current dly lo. G/L. 15min below {image}
Oh yes, bro. Picked up PA on both mentioned TF.
It should be interesting and yes, I do need luck more than ever.

Take care
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