Cable Update (GBPUSD)

Thanks

https://www.federalreserve.gov/

On the right side you have a video called FOMC Press Conference September 21, 2022


I do listen to Powell when he is talking live, however I like to listen to the whole thing at peace away from the charts to really focus and understand what he was saying and what are the most important things Fed is focused on. Give it a watch if you have some spare time and make your own conclusions.

Looking for a slight up before a smack down this week.. (call it coming up for air before a deeper dive)

the government is in dire straits and nothing about uk economy looking positive. Even a rate rise is dangerous

This was an excellent read. Cleared up my confusion with entries. I used to move stop losses to BE in almost every trade (including the GU sell on Friday lol).

Going to place 3 sell limits/positions when market opens (splitting 1% risk between all three orders).

Broke 4hr support levels and UJ finally pushed up through 145. I also saw a trader saying the moon was in Gemini (meaning sells - but I need to do more research on that concept)

Glad you got something from it, yeah, moving stops to break even is not good! I used to do it too.

I’m not sure about moon phases.. there are answers closer to home. On the chart in front of you even..

“Some people seek security not just in possessions and people but in a set of beliefs which makes everything that happens part of a pattern. The pattern may be in terms of heaven and hell, or Allah’s will, or karma, or fate, or a constellation of stars, or the eventual victory of the proletariat, but whatever the pattern is, it gives us a sense of fixity in what would otherwise seem to be a meaningless chaos. However, while having a belief in some kind of grand design can give a sense of security, it can make the person who holds the belief feel hopeless. If the pattern of your life is already determined by God or by your stars, or by your genes, or by your parents, or by a series of rewards and punishments called conditioning, then there is nothing you can do to change it. You are helpless and hopeless. On the other hand, if nothing is fixed, if anything can happen, at any time, then you have an infinite number of choices about what you do with your life. Such freedom can be exciting if you have lots of confidence in yourself, but if you do not, then such freedom is very scary. So, somehow, we all have to achieve a balance between an infinite choice and no choice at all.” Dorothy Rowe, Beyond Fear.

Embrace uncertainty and your freedom to learn and make better choices

Too much blah blah on fundamentals.
It's all priced in.
Let's focus on the charts.
Any ideas?

Weekly GU - Can come down to the 100% level


Daily GU - 100% level is daily OB

Genrally i dont hold positions over weekend.
One buy open

A successful trader parked his brand new Porsche in front of the office ready to show it off to his colleagues. As he got out a lorry came along too close to the kerb and completely tore off the driver's side. The trader immediately grabbed his mobile and dialled 999. It wasn't more than 5 minutes before a policeman pulled up. Before the policeman had a chance to ask any questions, the trader started screaming how his car, which he just picked up that day, was completely ruined and would never be the same again. After the trader finally finished his rant, the policeman shook his head in disbelief. "I can't believe how materialistic you fx_traders are," he said "You're so focused on your possessions you don't notice anything else" "How can you say that?" asked the trader. The policeman replied, "Didn't you realise that your left arm is missing from your elbow down? It's been torn off from when the truck hit you" The trader looked down in absolute horror. "Fucking Hell!" he screamed… "Where's my fukkin rolex?"

You have use google docs bro

Fundamentally, pound looks doomed. It would just lose value much quicker than dollar. I am also not convinced BOE can hike the rates as quickly as the market anticipates, probably it can't due to political ramifications.

I am a bit concerned though that it seems to be everyone's view. It can either mean that we will get to 1.05 / parity / lower very quickly, or the other way around: that the price will be very volatile.

For the week ahead, I think CPI is likely to surprise to the upside again. People just don't seem to understand that inflation spills from energy to everything else, and that Fed actions will take effect much later. So I would expect the bulls will try to make their move before Thursday, before a big dump after CPI release.

____________ I'll need a REAL miracle for this 1 = there goes my lil farm tabarnak

_____________________ Is there Luck in cable tradin , moty's hammer mebbe huh

The thread was never intended to give examples of an edge. As part of a wider discussion as to Why Most Traders Fail, (the title of the thread,!) it was a discussion of what one is, and what you need to know about one. Traders' who have actual empirically proven trading edges over a large forward-tested/traded trading sample(s) rightly regard them as proprietary, and essential intellectual property re their trading business. As such they have an inherent value and traders possessing one (or more) are unlikely/unwise to share them in their entirety without due consideration from any third party (s.) To think otherwise is unrealistic and/or naive. I personally fall into this category, although just in case anyone thinks this is an advert for my own Trading Edge, you will notice I do not accept 'DM's' or 'Shouts' on my profile.

As for places to look for examples...this thread is a good place to start. Many traders here, me amongst them, discuss technical and/or fundamental tactics/tips which may enable newer traders to begin to think about what type of trading edge they are looking for. This is to say nothing of the entire site - forexfactory with an almost overwhelming about of information/discussion of different strategies and tactics with which to approach the market. I would say 2 other things that may help you/be instructive in your quest for a trading edge;

1. There are for example third-party vendors who purport to sell you a trading edge via eBay etc for a few bucks. Beware though, if something looks too good to be true - it almost undoubtedly is. Indeed on this and other trading-related forums there are doubtless well-meaning people who have posted their own edges and development ideas for an edge. Remember too that even if someone has posted an 'actual' empirically proven edge as described above in a forum such as this, it has been developed by the thread starter to suit their own preferences/personality and tolerances, and may not suit others.

2. Even if you can/do develop an actual trading edge, as I have intimated already there is what the trading author Mark Douglas calls the 'profit-gap' to close. This is the difference between having a trading edge and developing the right psychology to trade it profitably. Some never do. They simply lack the discipline and sustainable discipline to conquer the psychological demons of, very simply put; greed, fear, hope, and revenge, etc.

Finally, you simply have to put the work in yourself. There are few if any 'real' short-cuts.

Hi Guys,
My future weekly pivot at 1.12132 definitely a target for me this week seeing current bearish and o/sold conditions from a 4 hr t/frame perspective. The thing is that we are in a bearish cycle and I will look to close my weaker buy trades asap. A daily break below 1.1000 should prompt me to close more buy trades and I will look at keeping my bottom most buy trades open, last line of defense. Not an ideal situation but at least I know that my trades will be locked in and safe. If price goes to new lows I obviously will be wrong in my trading assessment and I will have to start from scratch. The lows or downside of longer term trading which I am learning and getting accustomed to, however the longer term rewards can be great if price goes in my intended direction. My idea is to have a stress free life and not sitting glued to my screen. A break above 1.1400 should put bulls back in the driving seat.
Have a great week,
Cheers.

Wave 5 complete? We may see a correction to 1.1220...
Mostly around wave 4..
DP

Lately all tension is about Fed pivots, creates confusion in stock and other markets, easing and abolishment of further interest rate hike.

Reed these articles and research on Fed Pivots, will give you better clue.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsl...late-on-powell

https://www.investmentweek.co.uk/new...ivot-prospects

Trending down..SHS

People who know what they're talking about, usually won't say this statement at all.

Goes for both of you.

Cheers.

PS: Posting such an image has zero value, we all know how easy it is to photoshop stuff. Third-rate scammers are all already using it.