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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} BoE or Investment Bank ? you're asking here. If BoE, they are following Trusseconomic and instruction. Investment Bank already screw the Pension Fund money, the asked Govet for bailed out by issing new bond and buy it back with new money. End of the end , the people have to pay for it. The risk is always on the Tax payer and people.
no no, i mean that another bank would take the risk on shorting the pound and working against the BoE
The Bank of England is buying long-dated government bonds, and that amount talked about looks very much like the cost of Truss tax cuts.
But they are unlimited buying of government debt as required.
QE forces rates down.
They are looking for those bonds because that's where the pension funds are, but the whole curve will be affected.
The type of pension funds in trouble are the Liability-Driven Investing (LDI)
The easiest way to understand these funds is to change the name to Leveraged Debt Investment.
Ironically the pension funds have gone up the risk curve because long-term interest rates have been so low and thats why they carry risk on fast rising rates.
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"When yields fall the funds receive margin and when yields rise they typically have to post more collateral. After the spike in gilt yields on Friday and into this week, LDI fund managers were hit by margin calls from their investment banks.
LDI collateral buffers are partly set using historical data to build models based on the likely probability of gilt price movements, according to Shalin Bhagwan, head of pension advisory at DWS Group. The sudden recent surge in gilt yields “blew through the models and the collateral buffers,” he said.

“Any pension funds which has used even moderate levels of leverage are struggling to keep pace with the moves,” Mackenzie said before the BOE intervention. “You have a bit of a death spiral potentially where pension funds in particular are being forced to sell because they’re breaching their leverage agreements with their LDI counterparties.”
#doyourownanalysisordietryin
Quoting greed
{quote} so your conclusion than has to be that we see some kind of chain reaction or how do you than explain also the general dollar selling in the other currency's?
I've posted earlier on Intervention by several Central Bank of Japan, UK, China. See earlier post.
Your question already answered - ie Intervention.

England is Bear Sterns.
Japan is Lehman.
I come from the future.
Quoting greed
{quote} no no, i mean that another bank would take the risk on shorting the pound and working against the BoE
US market makers know how much money BoE put in for intervention ( by issuing bonds and the detail I write earlier.)

They are looking at figures on how to short GBP ,as the economic of UK are weak, only intervention does gives a temporary relieve to GBP.

It's a mind game, like chess , trying to find weakness in your opponent.
I come from the future.
Quoting greed
{quote} no no, i mean that another bank would take the risk on shorting the pound and working against the BoE
That remind me of one person - George Soros.....
I come from the future.
thanks for sharing your view
High expectancy rate for Big Sell tommorow.

If Asian Session gives us green candles tommorow, I would suggest you to get in and start selling after Asian Session. As said, expecting Big Red Daily Candle tommorow. See you soon!

We will also find out tommorow how much of their reserves have BoJ used in it's intervention in the market to prop up Yen.

We will also find out tommorow what the forecast is for Non-Farm next week.

Take care!
Quoting greed
thanks for sharing your view
No problem, we can agree to disagree.
I'm trying to explain in simplest laymen terms so other can learn a bit and understand WHY price moves.
I'm glad to contribute a bit to this thread.
I come from the future.
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} No problem, we can agree to disagree. I'm trying to explain in simplest laymen terms so other can learn a bit and understand WHY price moves. I'm glad to contribute a bit to this thread.
I really don't know much and i will be always thankful for different angles, especially if they don't consent with my idea.
You explanation are always understandable and you know what: I DO UNDERSTAND THE WORDS COMING OUT OF YOUR MOUTH!

Quoting Wavegarrick
{quote} {quote} Have to love it when a plan comes together Folks Have a great day. Cheers. {image}
Possible pullback to 1.1000 or my future daily pivot at 1.09707 ish (Yellow Highlight).
Trade safe
Cheers.
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Trade to trade another day
Quoting greed
{quote} so this is actually what i believe too. I don't think the BoE is intervening directly in buying the pound, but it's more like speculators who are trying to make some advantage of this. The same we saw yesterday with the stock market all over. But how is the BoE successful if all yields did rise today?! Didn't they want to stop it from rising?
im by no means an expert on fundamentals.
But the theory is that higher interest stems inflation because borrowing money is more expensive.
Less borrowing means less spending.

but now the new problem is mortgages with higher interest rates too.

So i guess there is no easy way out of this mess.

Bones knows alot more about this.
read his latest post
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...3#post14158423
in wondering about yourself, you forgot what you came here to be part of
perhaps a bit of selling now

20 pips or so for me
in wondering about yourself, you forgot what you came here to be part of
Time to short
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Quoting TheWolf
High expectancy rate for Big Sell tommorow. If Asian Session gives us green candles tommorow, I would suggest you to get in and start selling after Asian Session. As said, expecting Big Red Daily Candle tommorow. See you soon! We will also find out tommorow how much of their reserves have BoJ used in it's intervention in the market to prop up Yen. We will also find out tommorow what the forecast is for Non-Farm next week. Take care!
Didn't think you was trading the London session ....what's changed?
Soon To Be Temporarily Suspended Again
Usdjpy short tp 1.44
Quoting TheWolf
High expectancy rate for Big Sell tommorow. If Asian Session gives us green candles tommorow, I would suggest you to get in and start selling after Asian Session. As said, expecting Big Red Daily Candle tommorow. See you soon! We will also find out tommorow how much of their reserves have BoJ used in it's intervention in the market to prop up Yen. We will also find out tommorow what the forecast is for Non-Farm next week. Take care!

I think this could allow for a huge drop. The uptick is at pre Kwazi kazi level. It’s only here due to an intervention this baby could be counting the hours for a major drop.

bets for useless Liz to be out of a job by April next year are high!
Quoting Fardeen1209
Still trying to understand why GU keep going, when there is no demand for long term gilts (GB20). Who are buying GBP right now. Cause i think the up move was mostly from usd selling may be risk on mood or something i missed!
We were also trying to understand why it went down 500 pips in an hour last Monday
In the forex market you don't need to understand every move because sometimes there is no logical reason, it just happens.
Quoting piphuntinge
{quote} When Georginson talks about bloodshed, we should really be afraid
George is an awesome trader, who I have the upmost respect for, but nobody know for sure, always a choice

i hope this is not the case, not in the mood
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} Waiting game, hope it reach there for another round of push {image}
GU


Lunch break done....
Now we can see some movement.

I'm on LONG scalping mode here.,,

Let the show begin.........
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I come from the future.
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} moving averages will eventually catch up with the price.. when it does, some say price action bounce H1 10ema and H1 50ema target H1 200ema or the D1 10ema {image} ... {image}
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so the H1 200EMA has caught up with the price today

tomorrow Daily is at its 10EMA, will it continue above its 10EMA to close the week? anybody' guess.

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Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
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