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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #689,881
  • Sep 29, 2022 12:07pm Sep 29, 2022 12:07pm
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} In simpler terms - BoE issue Bond and buying it ( by printing more money) This money is to save Investment Banks that Pension Funds are having margin call. When Bond issued by BoE ( buy back with new print money), this will boost up the Bond yield and push GBP. In return all these bons are going to be paid by the UK people from their Tax money in future. I think that's the simplest laymen term I can put here. I short, it is known as "Ponzi Scheme" {image}
Sooner than later, a simple mistake from BOE would collapse GU below parity!
More time in the market, does not mean you trade better!
  • #689,882
  • Sep 29, 2022 12:10pm Sep 29, 2022 12:10pm
Quoting greed
I see a lot of people here talking about the BOE buying the pound and pushing it higher, but where do you guys all get this assumption from? All the BOE announced is buying mostly long term guilts i can not read it anywhere that they planned to buy pound. Also the approved budget for intervention wouldn't give them enough firepower to push it up >300 pips in my opinion.
the BoE is not buying GBP.
But their intervention in the bond market has calmed the market somewhat and so confidence in the GBP has returned - just a tad, pushing it higher.

nice article:
https://www.dailyfx.com/news/british...-20220929.html
in wondering about yourself, you forgot what you came here to be part of
  • #689,883
  • Sep 29, 2022 12:12pm Sep 29, 2022 12:12pm
Quoting Fardeen1209
{quote} Sooner than later, a simple mistake from BOE would collapse GU below parity!
i keep saying it:
we are heading for super parity:
USD=GBP=EUR
in wondering about yourself, you forgot what you came here to be part of
  • #689,884
  • Sep 29, 2022 12:12pm Sep 29, 2022 12:12pm
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} Waititng game, hope it reach there for another round of push {image}
Unless she decided to RT that level.
Can BoE hold to float GBP in long term ?.

May see some movement after US lunch break
And they may raid during Tokyo.
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I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #689,885
  • Sep 29, 2022 12:13pm Sep 29, 2022 12:13pm
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} Last week it was Japan intervention (FX), yesterday it was the UK intervention (bonds), and today it is China intervention (FX). Do you see a pattern? This cycle is different, and major countries are fighting market dynamics in a way we have not seen since the 1970-1980 period.
oooo god
  • #689,886
  • Sep 29, 2022 12:15pm Sep 29, 2022 12:15pm
Quoting knkie
{quote} the BoE is not buying GBP. But their intervention in the bond market has calmed the market somewhat and so confidence in the GBP has returned - just a tad, pushing it higher. nice article: https://www.dailyfx.com/news/british...-20220929.html
Thanks
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #689,887
  • Sep 29, 2022 12:19pm Sep 29, 2022 12:19pm
Quoting Mitiblotch
{quote} You cannot know everything. And in the world of finance not everything is laid bare for you to know. If it were that simple smart geniuses would have cracked the forex code. Forex still humbles geniuses till thy Kingdom come!
Hey Bro.

No necessary smart, but they ( the authority/Govt/Central Bank) are manipulative in the process.
However smart one are, when comes to intervention, all theories gone done the drain.

At this point, BoE trying to save Investment Bank ( like US did to Lehman Bros).
We are at the mercy of market, if some large investment Bank from US decided to short GBP tonight as they know how much money BoE put into QE and buying bonds.

Just stay vigilant.
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #689,888
  • Sep 29, 2022 12:21pm Sep 29, 2022 12:21pm
Quoting knkie
{quote} the BoE is not buying GBP. But their intervention in the bond market has calmed the market somewhat and so confidence in the GBP has returned - just a tad, pushing it higher. nice article: https://www.dailyfx.com/news/british...-20220929.html
Thanks bud. That was a damn good post!
More time in the market, does not mean you trade better!
  • #689,889
  • Sep 29, 2022 12:22pm Sep 29, 2022 12:22pm
Quoting knkie
{quote} the BoE is not buying GBP. But their intervention in the bond market has calmed the market somewhat and so confidence in the GBP has returned - just a tad, pushing it higher. nice article: https://www.dailyfx.com/news/british...-20220929.html

so this is actually what i believe too. I don't think the BoE is intervening directly in buying the pound, but it's more like speculators who are trying to make some advantage of this. The same we saw yesterday with the stock market all over.

But how is the BoE successful if all yields did rise today?! Didn't they want to stop it from rising?
  • #689,890
  • Sep 29, 2022 12:25pm Sep 29, 2022 12:25pm
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} Hey Bro. No necessary smart, but they ( the authority/Govt/Central Bank) are manipulative in the process. However smart one are, when comes to intervention, all theories gone done the drain. At this point, BoE trying to save Investment Bank ( like US did to Lehman Bros). We are at the mercy of market, if some large investment Bank from US decided to short GBP tonight as they know how much money BoE put into QE and buying bonds. Just stay vigilant.
Do you really think a bank would take this kind of risk in this market environment?
  • #689,891
  • Sep 29, 2022 12:29pm Sep 29, 2022 12:29pm
Quoting greed
{quote} Do you really think a bank would take this kind of risk in this market environment?
BoE or Investment Bank ? you're asking here.

If BoE, they are following Trusseconomic and instruction.
Investment Bank already screw the Pension Fund money, the asked Govet for bailed out by issing new bond and buy it back with new money.

End of the end , the people have to pay for it. The risk is always on the Tax payer and people.
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #689,892
  • Sep 29, 2022 12:31pm Sep 29, 2022 12:31pm
Quoting greed
{quote} Do you really think a bank would take this kind of risk in this market environment?
For us retail traders is 'this market environment' for them hedge funds is an opportunity. When one massive short took place against GBP, everbody else will follow from wall street to Japanese dont know what their street.
In short, the east will join the west to screw the middle one. It will be a threes*#..
More time in the market, does not mean you trade better!
  • #689,893
  • Sep 29, 2022 12:32pm Sep 29, 2022 12:32pm
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} BoE or Investment Bank ? you're asking here. If BoE, they are following Trusseconomic and instruction. Investment Bank already screw the Pension Fund money, the asked Govet for bailed out by issing new bond and buy it back with new money. End of the end , the people have to pay for it. The risk is always on the Tax payer and people.
no no, i mean that another bank would take the risk on shorting the pound and working against the BoE
  • #689,894
  • Edited 1:05pm Sep 29, 2022 12:32pm | Edited 1:05pm
The Bank of England is buying long-dated government bonds, and that amount talked about looks very much like the cost of Truss tax cuts.
But they are unlimited buying of government debt as required.
QE forces rates down.
They are looking for those bonds because that's where the pension funds are, but the whole curve will be affected.
The type of pension funds in trouble are the Liability-Driven Investing (LDI)
The easiest way to understand these funds is to change the name to Leveraged Debt Investment.
Ironically the pension funds have gone up the risk curve because long-term interest rates have been so low and thats why they carry risk on fast rising rates.
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"When yields fall the funds receive margin and when yields rise they typically have to post more collateral. After the spike in gilt yields on Friday and into this week, LDI fund managers were hit by margin calls from their investment banks.
LDI collateral buffers are partly set using historical data to build models based on the likely probability of gilt price movements, according to Shalin Bhagwan, head of pension advisory at DWS Group. The sudden recent surge in gilt yields “blew through the models and the collateral buffers,” he said.

“Any pension funds which has used even moderate levels of leverage are struggling to keep pace with the moves,” Mackenzie said before the BOE intervention. “You have a bit of a death spiral potentially where pension funds in particular are being forced to sell because they’re breaching their leverage agreements with their LDI counterparties.”
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #689,895
  • Sep 29, 2022 12:32pm Sep 29, 2022 12:32pm
Quoting greed
{quote} so your conclusion than has to be that we see some kind of chain reaction or how do you than explain also the general dollar selling in the other currency's?
I've posted earlier on Intervention by several Central Bank of Japan, UK, China. See earlier post.
Your question already answered - ie Intervention.

England is Bear Sterns.
Japan is Lehman.
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #689,896
  • Sep 29, 2022 12:35pm Sep 29, 2022 12:35pm
Quoting greed
{quote} no no, i mean that another bank would take the risk on shorting the pound and working against the BoE
US market makers know how much money BoE put in for intervention ( by issuing bonds and the detail I write earlier.)

They are looking at figures on how to short GBP ,as the economic of UK are weak, only intervention does gives a temporary relieve to GBP.

It's a mind game, like chess , trying to find weakness in your opponent.
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #689,897
  • Sep 29, 2022 12:37pm Sep 29, 2022 12:37pm
Quoting greed
{quote} no no, i mean that another bank would take the risk on shorting the pound and working against the BoE
That remind me of one person - George Soros.....
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #689,898
  • Sep 29, 2022 12:38pm Sep 29, 2022 12:38pm
thanks for sharing your view
  • #689,899
  • Sep 29, 2022 12:40pm Sep 29, 2022 12:40pm
High expectancy rate for Big Sell tommorow.

If Asian Session gives us green candles tommorow, I would suggest you to get in and start selling after Asian Session. As said, expecting Big Red Daily Candle tommorow. See you soon!

We will also find out tommorow how much of their reserves have BoJ used in it's intervention in the market to prop up Yen.

We will also find out tommorow what the forecast is for Non-Farm next week.

Take care!
  • #689,900
  • Sep 29, 2022 12:43pm Sep 29, 2022 12:43pm
Quoting greed
thanks for sharing your view
No problem, we can agree to disagree.
I'm trying to explain in simplest laymen terms so other can learn a bit and understand WHY price moves.
I'm glad to contribute a bit to this thread.
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
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