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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #671,261
  • Edited 11:14pm Jul 23, 2022 10:59pm | Edited 11:14pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} I think you have it in a nutshell. Forget analysis and just run with price action as it happens. I prefer the M1 / M30 combo but add Futures data to show me the when the market orders are confirming momentum direction with increasing volume. No lines, just get them all to agree and trade large for small scalps. Zero analysis is essential because that wasted time is better spend with your family.
Another example ( short )

1 min momentum arrow says sell at 2020.

5min sell candle develops around 2014

15 min candle sell develops around 2010.

30 min candle sell prevails already.

SELL. My sell entry at 2010 when 1,5,15,30 min candles coincides.

Potential profit up to 1975. ( 35 pips ! )
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Intraday only.
  • #671,262
  • Jul 24, 2022 2:03am Jul 24, 2022 2:03am
Quoting navk
{quote} This is m1/m30 combo. First m1 momentum signal ( Buy arrow ) at 1976. 5 min candle develops at 1976. 15 min candle develops at 1983. 30 min candle develops around 1985/1890. That a is BUY ! Until now the price moved up to 2005. Potential profit of 15 pips. {image}
Hi Navk

If you took those trades, its proof lagging indicators do actually pay sometimes.

Momentum is certainly a wicked beast, but is it momentum controlled by Liquidity providers in the form of Limit orders or is it momentum controlled by the herd in form of market orders.
In this case, I checked out the Futures contracts and the move downwards as you displayed on your charts contained a bias towards Buyer orders. It therefore was not selling off but being driven down by manipulation.

Well done if you took those trades but you would of been selling against the herd and won. In fact you should put on a suit and claim to be one of the big fat bankers.

Personally, its a crooked market GBPUSD full of price driven by big players - I won't trade in those conditions unless I see Buyers produce bullish runs and Sellers producing bearish runs. At best, 50% of occasions, GBPUSD moves against the herd.

The Herd did finally got control near the end and push the market back bullish.

Good luck next week.

Cheers
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #671,263
  • Jul 24, 2022 3:41am Jul 24, 2022 3:41am
Quoting navk
{quote} Another example ( short ) 1 min momentum arrow says sell at 2020. 5min sell candle develops around 2014 15 min candle sell develops around 2010. 30 min candle sell prevails already. SELL. My sell entry at 2010 when 1,5,15,30 min candles coincides. Potential profit up to 1975. ( 35 pips ! ) {image}
Price randomness has gotten to a new dimension, where candles are no longer aligning the way they used to, where short and medium term fundamentals are not corresponding with usual price reactions, where ranges are getting consistently inconsistent.

Solution to all these randomness:

✓Be reactionary than anticipatory... Take some time in studying market structure before jumping in as previous day structure may or cannot be the same structure next days;

✓Go back to the basics, buy at a low and sell at a high... A low or a high don't usually happen at the beginning of a time frame, so staying on the sideline is also a form of trading for clarity of entries, risk minimization and stop loss hunting avoidance.

✓Define your Stop loss and be disciplined with it. Stop loss can save you and may also give you consecutive losses if not properly used.

✓Spread your entries at intervals by dividing your lot sizes at different price levels which must come with loss limit determination and adherence. Do not go big at once, space your entries and give reasonable time for your entries to mature, you may close some and let others run to realistic profit limit.

✓Be flexible, it's the market that should dictate for you, not you dictating for the market. The trend is only your friend in the beginning and mid duration, not at the end. So know when the trend party is ending and quickly respond.

Good luck to us all.

Cheers,
George
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #671,264
  • Jul 24, 2022 4:33am Jul 24, 2022 4:33am
Quoting Georginson
{quote} Price randomness has gotten to a new dimension, where candles are no longer aligning the way they used to, where short and medium term fundamentals are not corresponding with usual price reactions, where ranges are getting consistently inconsistent. Solution to all these randomness: ✓Be reactionary than anticipatory... Take some time in studying market structure before jumping in as previous day structure may or cannot be the same structure next days; ✓Go back to the basics, buy at a low and sell at a high... A low or a high...
@Georginson, @PatChiko and @Wavegarrick is the three musketeers, proficient to explaining with a clear and easy to understand, you guys Great job!
https://breakpullback.com
  • #671,265
  • Jul 24, 2022 4:59am Jul 24, 2022 4:59am
Quoting eyefeelsix
{quote} @Georginson, @PatChiko and @Wavegarrick is the three musketeers, proficient to explaining with a clear and easy to understand, you guys Great job!
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  • #671,266
  • Jul 24, 2022 5:15am Jul 24, 2022 5:15am
Quoting eyefeelsix
{quote} @Georginson, @PatChiko and @Wavegarrick is the three musketeers, proficient to explaining with a clear and easy to understand, you guys Great job!
Thanks for the compliments mate and I must admit your chats have been informative and helpful.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #671,267
  • Jul 24, 2022 5:48am Jul 24, 2022 5:48am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Navk If you took those trades, its proof lagging indicators do actually pay sometimes. Momentum is certainly a wicked beast, but is it momentum controlled by Liquidity providers in the form of Limit orders or is it momentum controlled by the herd in form of market orders. In this case, I checked out the Futures contracts and the move downwards as you displayed on your charts contained a bias towards Buyer orders. It therefore was not selling off but being driven down by manipulation. Well done if you took those trades but you would of...
it is holiday, but not for BTCUSD.

I was checking the one you said :

On a 5 min momentum :

1) 30 min candle confirmation to me is the first.

For this wait for the first 30 min after you see momentum arrow.

2) The next confirmation comes 1 hr. Wait for open of start of hourly candle.

3) Then of course the 4 hr candle start.

You know once 4hr closes bearish or bullish, the next 1 or 2 hrs it goes opposite.

THen it comes back in your trading direction.

For all, the stop must be above/below momentum arrow.

I was testing this point in demo.

In btc.

My observations I indicated above.
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Intraday only.
  • #671,268
  • Jul 24, 2022 5:52am Jul 24, 2022 5:52am
Now the continuation of sell candle in 4hr. while I did the previous post.
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Intraday only.
  • #671,269
  • Jul 24, 2022 6:26am Jul 24, 2022 6:26am
Quoting navk
Now the continuation of sell candle in 4hr. while I did the previous post. {image}
No,no,no, according to a shitcoin expert here you cannot trade shitcoin without DELTA and VOLUME.
  • #671,270
  • Jul 24, 2022 6:31am Jul 24, 2022 6:31am
Quoting mixedbags
{quote} No,no,no, according to a shitcoin expert here you cannot trade shitcoin without DELTA and VOLUME.
ok,

I do not trade bitcoin, but being holiday, I just wanted to check
Intraday only.
  • #671,271
  • Edited 7:30am Jul 24, 2022 7:02am | Edited 7:30am
Quoting mixedbags
{quote} No,no,no, according to a shitcoin expert here you cannot trade shitcoin without DELTA and VOLUME.
anyone sure of anything in this world eventually gets a happy or sad surprise .

I respect all views but am more of an open-minded kind of man. That is why I particularly like Pat's

  1. Favorite Trading Quote:
  2. "Different strategies work for different people in different places, at different times. Don't be dogmatic and think that the only strategy that works is yours." — PAT


There is so much "this is like this and this is like that" in the forum, sometimes it gets me dizzy. But I still admire everyone's views, no matter how set in stone it is or seems, IF that's what works for them. Remind's me a hilarious movie "Whatever works". If you want to laugh, that's a good one, especially if you are into comedian Larry David or very talented actress AND so beautiful Evan Rachel Wood

Inserted Video



For me, too young are those cryptocretians coins. I love data too much, the more the better! and there's not much in that world up to now, unless for scalping...

BUT

Viele Wege führen nach Rom!

I know a cryptocrazy bloke who has been simply swingin' by buying months' highs breaks, and reversing selling months' lows, and vice versa, but staying in a given position only if month where she is triggered closes beyond the said high/low... I warned him, but he's already way passed losing his shirt and reminds me of it every bloody time we speak. His results are just as crazy as he is
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #671,272
  • Jul 24, 2022 7:14am Jul 24, 2022 7:14am
Quoting tonyb123
Different Fib same concept.{image}{image}
No doubt of D
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  • #671,273
  • Jul 24, 2022 7:25am Jul 24, 2022 7:25am
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  • #671,274
  • Jul 24, 2022 7:44am Jul 24, 2022 7:44am
Quoting Waveskierrob
{image}
Trading methods have/had always conflicts between people.

At the end, what works for you, continue with that.
Intraday only.
  • #671,275
  • Jul 24, 2022 9:03am Jul 24, 2022 9:03am
A buy prevails in UJ first on Monday probably.
Intraday only.
  • #671,276
  • Jul 24, 2022 10:13am Jul 24, 2022 10:13am
FOMC Wednesday, big earnings week, PCE, Consumer Confidence, revised GDP numbers, Monkey Pox, and more this week.
Expect more volatile days!
Dates that matter:

- Jul 27 FOMC decision
- Jul 29 Core PCE
- 5 Aug Payrolls
- 10 Aug CPI
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The question still exists, which one will he choose dollar or market… IMHO it will be the dollar.

This week is gonna be epic.
I think the Fed wants to go Volcker mode but can they?
Debt to GDP was 30% or so when Volcker was in charge, its north of 120% now......
They might not have the ~tools~ to deal with this at all.

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Expect high volatility next week coz All big companies will share their Q2 earning reports. FED FOMC meeting will cause uncertainty as well.

Good luck.
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #671,277
  • Jul 24, 2022 10:15am Jul 24, 2022 10:15am
And not crossed yet

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Together we can be strongest
Vantage Return This Month: na
  • #671,278
  • Jul 24, 2022 10:21am Jul 24, 2022 10:21am
Quoting Black-Star
{quote} Cable seems to be still in correction phase and is almost about to complete the second leg of the correction. The estimated level for the completion of Wave B leg (lime green) is 1.1800 and that is the level I am aiming for. From there, maybe Cable may rally one more time to complete the correction phase (Wave 4, Orange). If bulls are strong, they may try to rally price to around 1.2265 but if bulls are weak they may be overwhelmed by the bears around 1.2170. Anything is possible in the markets and that is why I always leave room for error....
In my previous post I mentioned a scenario of how Cable may rally after finding support around 1.1800 and so far it's playing out accordingly. This may be the final leg (Wave C, Lime Green) of the correction phase (Wave 4, Orange). I am anticipating more upside in the coming week or so and Cable may find resistance around 1.2170 area, an area where I think Wave C (Lime Green) may terminate. From there if the 1.2170 area holds as resistance, Cable may start trending to the down side towards the 1.1500 area but for now my focus will be trading to the upside to 1.2170 before making any further decisions.

I may be wrong but let's see how the market unfolds. Good luck everyone

Charts: D1, H4, H1
Picture: Textbook illustration of the EW correction pattern
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  • #671,279
  • Jul 24, 2022 11:08am Jul 24, 2022 11:08am
Yellen: "I'm not seeing evidence of a Us recession now"
75 - 100 bps.
Tomorrow Tokyo session, might we see an upward moving for Uj?
More time in the market, does not mean you trade better!
  • #671,280
  • Jul 24, 2022 12:18pm Jul 24, 2022 12:18pm
Quoting palpite
And not crossed yet {image}
Hi Palpite,
The reason I do not rely on longer term trend lines with bar charts is because your trend line is drawn on the weekly time frame and based on the next bar. Translate that to the smaller time frames and you find a massive difference. It is the space that is created on your chart to form the next bar on your chart that becomes unreliable. Perhaps line charts become more reliable,
Cheers.
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