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  • #1,217,141
  • Jul 14, 2022 3:55am Jul 14, 2022 3:55am
Quoting JauntyLoon
{quote} 66% of IG clients are long EUR/USD Mind you, that is less than last week where it was in the 70s. Still expecting the Euro to do something, since 'markets never move in a straight line' ....
That is the spirit always, but in very bearish markets like EU now only swallow corrections are happening. There are some chances to correct more above 1.0060 today, but it will be slow and painful for all.
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #1,217,142
  • Jul 14, 2022 4:11am Jul 14, 2022 4:11am
Quoting JauntyLoon
{quote} On the contrary, starting from a longer time frame and sticking to your decision until evidence to the contrary appears on a longer time frame would be far more profitable for the vast majority of people. EUR/USD has been on nothing but a downtrend for years, with the most recent 'leg' of the downtrend approaching an entire year without any considerable retracement. Trying to time the market in tiny subdegrees is why the vast majority of retail traders lose money.
starting from a longer time frame and sticking to your decision until evidence to the contrary appears on a longer time frame would be far more profitable for the vast majority of people

Although you have implied that I said to start with smaller TFs, I never said that. What I have said--and you can verify if you care to waste your time reading my posts--is to first do a top-down analysis (larger TF downward through smaller TFs). After you find the control TF, THEN move to smallest TF and move upward to find the focus TF. And because these are dynamic, the focus TF typically changes many times before the control TF ends its control.

So, you have actually concluded what I have already promoted for many years. The critical parts for realizing successful trades are understanding the relationships between the TFs and being able to determine the control and focus TFs.

EUR/USD has been on nothing but a downtrend for years
GBPUSD correlates very well with EURUSD, and I have posted several times that it is in a long-term multi-year down move, with smaller TFs
making RALLIES followed by down continuations to sell. But when the rally occurs on a large enough TF with "good" volatility, then it becomes worthwhile to also make counter-trend trades on these TFs.

In addition, the "evidence to the contrary" will typically be found on a smaller TF even BEFORE the confirming evidence seals the change on the larger TF.

Here is an example of GBPUSD MN1 due to RALLY to even higher TFs that are down. It shows the Weekly making a pullback followed by an up continuation that results in MN1 swinging up. In addition, it further shows how the D1 made a RALLY followed by a down continuation to the Weekly's pullback. You can see how this EXPECTED behavior mentioned before was determined more than a week ahead of its occurrence.

And here is a post from January, 2021 that states that RALLIES are still due on MN8 and even higher TFs, and also gives an expectation that GBPUSD could reach as low as 1.2 before an upswing. Price has thus far managed to go even further to nearly 1.18.

All of this is via initial TOP DOWN analysis followed by a bottom-up look for the trading opportunities.

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To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #1,217,143
  • Jul 14, 2022 4:21am Jul 14, 2022 4:21am
Quoting DrDave
All of this is via initial TOP DOWN analysis followed by a bottom-up look for the trading opportunities. {image}

I agree then, except with the bottom-up part if it makes you go long EUR/USD.
  • #1,217,144
  • Jul 14, 2022 5:24am Jul 14, 2022 5:24am
Quote
OXFORD, Britain, July 14 (Reuters) – Europe faces a "really tough" winter in the face of soaring energy costs which might require fuel rationing, Shell CEO Ben van Beurden said on Thursday.
"It will be a really tough winter in Europe.. We will all face very significant escalation in energy prices," van Beurden told the Aurora Spring Conference in Oxford.
In the worst case, Europe will need to ration its energy consumption, he added.
(Reporting by Ron Bousso; editing by Jason Neely) (([email protected]; +44 (0) 2075422161; Reuters Messaging:...

Yes, Britain too.

It's called the Great Reset. People will lose their jobs and their homes and will be dependent on rationed handouts from the state.
  • #1,217,145
  • Jul 14, 2022 5:45am Jul 14, 2022 5:45am
Quoting JauntyLoon
{quote} I agree then, except with the bottom-up part if it makes you go long EUR/USD.
The smaller TFs indicate when it is time for a larger TF to change direction. So, this usually means the larger TF is going into a retracement. However, the larger TF COULD be going into a reversal. But initially, there is no way to predict which the larger TF will do. However, if the smaller TFs have high enough volatility AND have sufficient cycles to EXPECT the larger TF will change direction, then a successful trade can be made even if the move turns out to be only a retracement on the larger TF rather than a direction change.

So, on EURUSD, I have an EXPECTATION that H8 is ending its down move. Therefore, I am checking smaller TFs for uptrends so that I can buy a continuation swing after a pullback swing.

I have no problem with a buy during the yellow up arrow as price breaks above the high of the bar before it.
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To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #1,217,146
  • Jul 14, 2022 5:55am Jul 14, 2022 5:55am
Quoting JauntyLoon
{quote} Yes, Britain too. It's called the Great Reset. People will lose their jobs and their homes and will be dependent on rationed handouts from the state.
YES , man. The Great Reset is just the total and Global Communism. Like N.Korea , China .

  • #1,217,147
  • Jul 14, 2022 6:26am Jul 14, 2022 6:26am
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..... I have a pending to go long , as shown........

  • #1,217,148
  • Jul 14, 2022 6:33am Jul 14, 2022 6:33am
I'm betting on a bounce at 9900
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  • #1,217,149
  • Jul 14, 2022 6:38am Jul 14, 2022 6:38am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
EURUSD 30 min graph, easy to read. Asian high is keeping the price down today. {image}
Up and down bulls have another one chance!
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #1,217,150
  • Jul 14, 2022 7:48am Jul 14, 2022 7:48am
Pending still in place. . . . .

  • #1,217,151
  • Jul 14, 2022 7:48am Jul 14, 2022 7:48am
EURUSD AT PARITY MAYDAY MAYDAY

sheeeeEEEEEEEEeeesh

GG
  • #1,217,152
  • Jul 14, 2022 8:26am Jul 14, 2022 8:26am
77% of IG clients are now long, which means there's more downside to come
  • #1,217,153
  • Edited 11:02am Jul 14, 2022 8:30am | Edited 11:02am
finally EURUSD below parity level .... how about volume = true breakout
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IF RETAIL TRADER DOMINANT SELL = RETAIL MARKET (TIER 2) TEND BUY, BUT IG DATA SENTIMENT IS NOT CURRENT TIME
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from investing
The Average Discount Everything
  • #1,217,154
  • Jul 14, 2022 8:34am Jul 14, 2022 8:34am
SELL SELL SELL
  • #1,217,155
  • Jul 14, 2022 8:43am Jul 14, 2022 8:43am
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-milkeyway
  • #1,217,156
  • Edited 9:08am Jul 14, 2022 8:54am | Edited 9:08am
Eurusd 0.99780 SELL SELL SELL!!!

Market execution!!!
  • #1,217,157
  • Jul 14, 2022 10:06am Jul 14, 2022 10:06am
WTF IS GOING ON?SOMETHING STRANGE GAP UP 30 PIPS 3 MINUTES AGO.THATS SOMETHING NEW
  • #1,217,158
  • Jul 14, 2022 10:15am Jul 14, 2022 10:15am
Many of STOPs were taken out on that last move throughout the entire fx market.

Would hate to be the big trader trying to get out of that.
THESE PEOPLE WITH COLORED BADGES ARE NOT PROFESSIONAL TRADERS
  • #1,217,159
  • Jul 14, 2022 10:19am Jul 14, 2022 10:19am
Quoting H13
Many of STOPs were taken out on that last move throughout the entire fx market. Would hate to be the big trader trying to get out of that.
FOREX IS BIG BOYS GAME ONLY WITH MAIN GOAL HOW TO ROBER AS MUCH POSSIBLE LITTLE FISHES..AND MANY TRADERS WONT ACCEPT THAT.BUT ITS TRUE
  • #1,217,160
  • Jul 14, 2022 10:23am Jul 14, 2022 10:23am
Quoting H13
Many of STOPs were taken out on that last move throughout the entire fx market. Would hate to be the big trader trying to get out of that.
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No trader is trying to get out of that......... This parity level is going to be defended for days.

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