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  • #1,217,121
  • Jul 13, 2022 9:36am Jul 13, 2022 9:36am
on daily and h4 timeframes eurusd shows bearish movement. now even 1 euro = 1 dollar. i don't remember such event for long time.
  • #1,217,122
  • Jul 13, 2022 9:59am Jul 13, 2022 9:59am
First of all I saw, the high price exceeds the upper bands period 20 std 4 in normal conditions
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The Average Discount Everything
  • #1,217,123
  • Jul 13, 2022 10:28am Jul 13, 2022 10:28am
EU may go sideways till FOMC
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  • #1,217,124
  • Jul 13, 2022 10:45am Jul 13, 2022 10:45am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
Up targets 1.0094/1.0119 down look at teh chart, blue lines are decision points. I advice new traders to stay out, or experiment with demo. {image} Just bounced to 1.0083 as of writing! {quote}
EU smashed every obstacle and now is correcting its advance that stoped at 1.0123. I don't like what I see (I have no problem with the bulls) but this down trend yet isn't over from what I most probably see in my charts. We may see some more upside price action, but it will fall again and this time it may fall below parity for well and stay below there.

Resistance above todays high is at 1.0145. Lets see if, it get there!
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #1,217,125
  • Jul 13, 2022 12:03pm Jul 13, 2022 12:03pm
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} EU smashed every obstacle and now is correcting its advance that stoped at 1.0123. I don't like what I see (I have no problem with the bulls) but this down trend yet isn't over from what I most probably see in my charts. We may see some more upside price action, but it will fall again and this time it may fall below parity for well and stay below there. Resistance above todays high is at 1.0145. Lets see if, it get there!
From about the start of 2017 until about January, 2021 was the 8 month TF making a rally. So the current drop since January, 2021 is the 8 month TF in its down continuation.

It is LIKELY that price will continue further below 1.0, but because this 8 month down continuation covering about 2,400 pips is already extended, it is likely on daily and smaller TFs to have significant up-down cycling moves from current level. For trader's with much smaller TF views, the uptrends that form that are needed to try to end the 8 month down swing can easily appear to be the bulls back in control when in reality, it is price maneuvering to a more lucrative level prior to another significant drop.

I suspect that traders that make use of multiple TFs covering a wide range will perform significantly better than traders using just 1 or 2 TFs.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #1,217,126
  • Edited Jul 14, 2022 3:46am Jul 13, 2022 9:00pm | Edited Jul 14, 2022 3:46am
It seems that the ECB is not ready that Euro will be below parity level ... but what can be said, the euro leaders are very slow to take a firm stand, especially facing / fighting lady boy Putin so that the effects of Putin's actions towards Ukraine and EU become widespread in the economic sector ... . Not to mention if Putin will be stop supply oil and gas that has the potential in the month of December ... then the crisis will be more apparent.

Regret is always late, especially for Angela Merkel and Macron (until the CIA reportedly conducted a special investigation during the Trump presidency).... Moreover, this situation proves that the EU's Secret Intelligence Service is very weak.

Euro's fear of playing below parity level is a picture of excessive inability / fear and no confidence
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for a broader picture of market conditions (bias) then don't use small tf
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bears target is 0.98360/0.9210/0.8620/0.7958, so the down trend will be continue (in the long term)
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if too much noise, use renko chart to rebuild market psikology .... The renko chart can minimize noise, although the chart can change after being refreshed (adjusting to the psychological changes that are happening)... the renko chart is almost the same as the point and figure chart (PnF)
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but the size of the renko must be calculated correctly .... the size of the renko is not the same in every pair and every tf
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SEE DIFFERENT IN RENKO WITH CANDLESTICK
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The Average Discount Everything
  • #1,217,127
  • Jul 13, 2022 10:08pm Jul 13, 2022 10:08pm
Dollar should start weakening here
THESE PEOPLE WITH COLORED BADGES ARE NOT PROFESSIONAL TRADERS
  • #1,217,128
  • Jul 14, 2022 12:28am Jul 14, 2022 12:28am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} From about the start of 2017 until about January, 2021 was the 8 month TF making a rally. So the current drop since January, 2021 is the 8 month TF in its down continuation. It is LIKELY that price will continue further below 1.0, but because this 8 month down continuation covering about 2,400 pips is already extended, it is likely on daily and smaller TFs to have significant up-down cycling moves from current level. For trader's with much smaller TF views, the uptrends that form that are needed to try to end the 8 month down swing can easily...
As I wrote bears are stronger than the bulls and a drop below parity in near I must agree, but the focus should be on smaller moves like, you write in many of your posts, so taking forex step by step timeframe by timeframe is the best advice a new tarder can get. If, one knows where to look and focus then he can even turn the tide :-)

Green pips!
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #1,217,129
  • Jul 14, 2022 12:34am Jul 14, 2022 12:34am
Quoting hesron
Euro's fear of playing below parity level is a picture of excessive inability / fear and no confidence


This is something that many traders don't look, or see, the fear and the incompetence of other players.

Only great traders can distinct between the bears and bulls in who is in a greater danger and act uppon.

We can find this in ourselves.
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #1,217,130
  • Jul 14, 2022 1:11am Jul 14, 2022 1:11am
EURUSD 30 min graph, easy to read. Asian high is keeping the price down today.

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Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #1,217,131
  • Edited 4:09am Jul 14, 2022 1:13am | Edited 4:09am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} This is something that many traders don't look, or see, the fear and the incompetence of other players. Only great traders can distinct between the bears and bulls in who is in a greater danger and act uppon. We can find this in ourselves.
let it be... one day they will realize... hopefully it's not too late for them after spending a lot of money in the market ... because they think that trading is only about buy or sell
The Average Discount Everything
  • #1,217,132
  • Jul 14, 2022 1:26am Jul 14, 2022 1:26am
Quoting H13
Dollar should start weakening here
And it reversed on a dime...

ten pip move on the eur and that was it...

Dollar is mad strong right now.
THESE PEOPLE WITH COLORED BADGES ARE NOT PROFESSIONAL TRADERS
  • #1,217,133
  • Jul 14, 2022 1:52am Jul 14, 2022 1:52am
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Picture is gloomy. I am short at an inappropriate momment amd level yesterday, so I take my prfts now and stay flat for a while...

  • #1,217,134
  • Jul 14, 2022 2:02am Jul 14, 2022 2:02am
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JY 5' --- I am taking my prfts here also at 138.80

  • #1,217,135
  • Jul 14, 2022 2:05am Jul 14, 2022 2:05am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} As I wrote bears are stronger than the bulls and a drop below parity in near I must agree, but the focus should be on smaller moves like, you write in many of your posts, so taking forex step by step timeframe by timeframe is the best advice a new tarder can get. If, one knows where to look and focus then he can even turn the tide :-) Green pips!
taking forex step by step timeframe by timeframe is the best advice a new trader can get.


If, one knows where to look and focus ...
And therein lies the biggest hurdle to successful trading.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #1,217,136
  • Jul 14, 2022 3:07am Jul 14, 2022 3:07am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} taking forex step by step timeframe by timeframe is the best advice a new trader can get. If, one knows where to look and focus ... And therein lies the biggest hurdle to successful trading.

On the contrary, starting from a longer time frame and sticking to your decision until evidence to the contrary appears on a longer time frame would be far more profitable for the vast majority of people. EUR/USD has been on nothing but a downtrend for years, with the most recent 'leg' of the downtrend approaching an entire year without any considerable retracement.

Trying to time the market in tiny subdegrees is why the vast majority of retail traders lose money.
  • #1,217,137
  • Jul 14, 2022 3:14am Jul 14, 2022 3:14am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
I advice new traders to stay out, or experiment with demo.

That's the best advice anyone can give to a retail trader for any market, on any time frame
  • #1,217,138
  • Jul 14, 2022 3:17am Jul 14, 2022 3:17am
EUR/USD has been in a downtrend since January 2018 (so that's now four and a half years).

The most recent leg (shown by the most recent 50 < 200 MA cross) has lasted for nearly a year.

Why buy?
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  • #1,217,139
  • Jul 14, 2022 3:38am Jul 14, 2022 3:38am
Quoting JauntyLoon
{quote} That's the best advice anyone can give to a retail trader for any market, on any time frame
Plus above 10000 hours on the screen! Buying is only for pros in this market who got only less % to lose.
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #1,217,140
  • Jul 14, 2022 3:46am Jul 14, 2022 3:46am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} Plus above 10000 hours on the screen! Buying is only for pros in this market who got only less % to lose.

66% of IG clients are long EUR/USD

Mind you, that is less than last week where it was in the 70s.

Still expecting the Euro to do something, since 'markets never move in a straight line' ....
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