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Flying Dutchman

  • #1,901
  • Jun 26, 2022 4:48am Jun 26, 2022 4:48am
Quoting deanyakobs
{quote}I'm not aware that the MM change or recalibrate his INTENT direction on certain target..
There is what Steve Mauro calls it a "Reset". The MM cycle is not one dimensional. You can expect some reset or recalibrate.
  • #1,902
  • Edited 5:25am Jun 26, 2022 4:53am | Edited 5:25am
Quoting Rmg
How do you determine the targets or what is the secret behind algo math targets? care to share?
Hi Rmg, last year I tried to introduce this idea about fx market valuation and I failed. Let me try to explain this the correct way.

Fx is priced based on the fair value of the currency pair. Price will trade inside this upper and lower range of this fair value. "George" targets are candlesticks that test this upper lower range. So, in general targets visually mark the value range.

It's not difficult to identify targets.
However, we read on this thread and all George's thread this problem how to identify which target ?
And how to know if market will "grind" past these targets ?

Since targets mark the upper lower range of current fair value we have to know the intent of the market when it move toward these targets - whether market will recalibrate or return to fair value. And which target(upper or lower) ?

This means it comes down to this single question of intent. Intent tells us the target and what it decides to do.

The simplest indicator of intent is whether market trades above or below the open line. Market trades above open line means rising value(top target) and market trades below open line means falling value(bottom target). If you are an intraday trader, the wol(current and last week) and dol(today and yesterday) are important. The analysis involve few open lines and top/bottom targets.

For intraweek traders, the mol(current and last month) and wol(current and last week) are important.

Take note of the volatility as a percentage of atr. The current price in your trading session expressed as a percentage of atr. This helps us to estimate the possible future market expansion.

We have to remember there's macro fair value and micro fair value - the concept of fractals.

For intraday traders, wol measures macro and dol measures micro value.
For intraweek traders, mol measures macro and wol measures micro value.

This is the general idea of value determination. The algo math is derived from this basic model.

edit - price "grinds" because market is recalibrating the macro fair value.
Know what you trade
  • #1,903
  • Edited 5:20am Jun 26, 2022 4:59am | Edited 5:20am
GU as a working example.

GU traded in a narrow weekly range between last wol and target2. Price was congested, the reason is found in GEfx post.
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...8#post14044448

Notice the tight high low range of (Tues to Fri dol) marked by the blue box.

Friday market, price traded above dol. Look left yesterday, price traded below dol and rejected from low target2 in line with BOE monetary policy, and rejected from wol. Intent is clear market will not trade below dol. But it will not trade above recents highs given the uncertainty of BOE's resolve with rate setting. Giving a narrow 56% adr for Friday with minimal gain.

edit - compare the difference when the market recalibrated for us30.
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...2#post14044672
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: gu2.PNG Size: 13 KB
Know what you trade
  • #1,904
  • Jun 26, 2022 5:45am Jun 26, 2022 5:45am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Hi Rmg, last year I tried to introduce this idea about fx market valuation and I failed. Let me try to explain this the correct way. Fx is priced based on the fair value of the currency pair. Price will trade inside this upper and lower range of this fair value. "George" targets are candlesticks that test this upper lower range. So, in general targets visually mark the value range. It's not difficult to identify targets. However, we read on this thread and all George's thread this problem how to identify which target ? And how to know if...
I use prior session H/l to determine the intent...in this case beautiful chart patterns on 1 min showed clear intent ...took some heavy longs.

Thanks for your explanations BW.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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on a postive roll...
  • #1,905
  • Jun 26, 2022 9:13am Jun 26, 2022 9:13am
Quoting Rmg
{quote}I use prior session H/l to determine the intent...in this case beautiful chart patterns on 1 min showed clear intent ...took some heavy longs. Thanks for your explanations BW. {image}

did you calculate these purple lines beforehand...?!
  • #1,906
  • Jun 26, 2022 9:24am Jun 26, 2022 9:24am
Quoting Onra
{quote} did you calculate these purple lines beforehand...?!
Just the prior sessions H/L
on a postive roll...
  • #1,907
  • Edited 11:57am Jun 26, 2022 11:46am | Edited 11:57am
Quoting Rmg
{quote}I use prior session H/l to determine the intent...in this case beautiful chart patterns on 1 min showed clear intent ...took some heavy longs. Thanks for your explanations BW. {image}
Interesting. I added George's Targets plus BWilliam's Intent plus Bilal's Break of Structure (refined according to my observations) before he went deep into ICT plus Moodybot's Peak Formation (with some Steve Mauro) and I got similar results of which are making me go crazy with more chart time of testing (back-testing and demo testing). At the same time I'm absorbing CrucialPoint's knowledge (also interestingly that was the first name I got familiar with or used to see when I joined FF and it turns out to carry some weight).

Edit: The Intent was shown prior to those moves with the arrows. Those were confirmations.
  • #1,908
  • Jun 26, 2022 11:54am Jun 26, 2022 11:54am
Quoting Rmg
{quote} Just the prior sessions H/L
Uhh...; I assume that are the white lines..; right?
  • #1,909
  • Jun 26, 2022 11:59am Jun 26, 2022 11:59am
Quoting Pumi
{quote} Interesting. I added George's Targets plus BWilliam's Intent plus Bilal's Break of Structure (refined according to my observations) before he went deep into ICT plus Moodybot's Peak Formation (with some Steve Mauro) and I got similar results of which are making me go crazy with more chart time of testing (back-testing and demo testing). At the same time I'm absorbing CrucialPoint's knowledge (also interestingly that was the first name I got familiar with or used to see when I joined FF and it turns out to carry some weight).

Strange that this secret core principle we're after, is supposed to be very simple;
yet it seems to take years of reading, rereading, puzzling and combining...
  • #1,910
  • Jun 26, 2022 12:07pm Jun 26, 2022 12:07pm
Quoting Onra
Strange that this secret core principle we're after, is supposed to be very simple; yet it seems to take years of reading, rereading, puzzling and combining...
Hi Onra, if you check my post history I wrote many times I can do it on my phone. That's the hint.

The reason why most people miss it is because they can't believe it's so simple. I've read enough comments on FF to know this mindset. I've written many times don't over-complicate, don't over-sophisticate. Too bad people are naturally attracted to sophisticated data and indicators.
Know what you trade
  • #1,911
  • Jun 26, 2022 12:17pm Jun 26, 2022 12:17pm
Quoting Onra
{quote} Strange that this secret core principle we're after, is supposed to be very simple; yet it seems to take years of reading, rereading, puzzling and combining...
I just gave you a direction. Study this thread, and pay more attention on the week of 6 June 2022 and go through both of George's threads (https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...core-tma-intra? and https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...family-members?).

BWilliam has posted some information on George's last thread (https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...family-members?). Go through Bilal (https://www.forexfactory.com/bilal1947) and CrucialPoint's (https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...arters-request) threads (again BWilliam posted some reference to these threads on George's last thread , this thread and Moodybot's Real or Algo thread (https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/992929-real-or-algo?). There is some wealth of information on these threads)

You can also go through BWilliam's posts/replies (unfortunately some very important ones were deleted).

I'm not promoting anyone here but if you can go through the list of my subscriptions you can learn a lot from these members.
  • #1,912
  • Jun 26, 2022 12:59pm Jun 26, 2022 12:59pm
Quoting BWilliam
GU as a working example. GU traded in a narrow weekly range between last wol and target2. Price was congested, the reason is found in GEfx post. https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...8#post14044448 Notice the tight high low range of (Tues to Fri dol) marked by the blue box. Friday market, price traded above dol. Look left yesterday, price traded below dol and rejected from low target2 in line with BOE monetary policy, and rejected from wol. Intent is clear market will not trade below dol. But it will not trade above recents...
Great charts BW and the context you have laid out can be successfully traded with simple PA knowledge techniques.

It simply amazes me the power of the DOL WOL highs lows sessions etc. They are the main guts of "the program" IMO...and everything can be calculated off of them. I know for a fact as I have figured out a daily trade on the US indices that has a probability higher than 90%. which presents itself almost every single day. All based on a specific times high and low. So absolutely 100% the quants algos are trading it.

And NO !!!Volume is not even part of the equation lol... Date/Time/Price

The GU is certainly an interesting chart at this point. I have sketched up a few higher tf charts with a particular long range target of 1.28 on the button.
GU may very well continue its downtrend....but I like what I am seeing on the Daily and weekly and need to see a BO of the Daily/Weekly IBs to the upside and perhaps I will trade and document with screenshots this possible swing setup if it develops. If not.. nothing ventured nothing gained !!

Cheers
Blue
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #1,913
  • Edited Jun 27, 2022 3:11am Jun 26, 2022 8:09pm | Edited Jun 27, 2022 3:11am
Quoting Pumi
I just gave you a direction. Study this thread, and pay more attention on the week of 6 June 2022.. .
EU, GU, AU, UCHF, silver, US30, nasdaq, bitcoin. Others like EA, ECAD, ECHF, GCHF, oil, happened 1week later. And yen cross on larger tf.

@Pumi, you're on the right track.
Quoting Pumi
Edit: The Intent was shown prior to those moves with the arrows. Those were confirmations.
I have given a lot of pointers about value trading on this thread and all Andy's thread. Hope you guys understand the idea behind this strategy. Many pips to all of you. Cheers.

Ps. For info, I don't do mentorship. Just read the threads. Plenty of examples are already given. And check out Pumi's charts.

Pss. If you trade commodity, soybean, sugar, wheat.
Know what you trade
  • #1,914
  • Edited 9:01pm Jun 26, 2022 8:51pm | Edited 9:01pm
Quoting deanyakobs
{quote}
... on price dynamics at the moment (what is happening).
Sometimes you TRADE TO TARGET, others time you TRADE AWAY from TARGET, and in between you trade BASED on MOMENTUM.

Hi d-y,

I do not offer the following as any trade advice or suggest that this is the way to ever trade.
(the next trade I might be trading with a brand new momentum, towards a major target, who knows, not me in advance anyway)

Just how different traders can look at the same market in a slightly different manner.

So.


Mate there are many ways to skin a cat in Forex.
And each trader will trade to their own preferences.

GBPJPY this morning, about an hour after the usual JPY announcements (9.50am Briz), they ran the upper lower ADR out to over 110 pips,
giving a great potential reversal entry down near the next George Target at 165.082.

I entered a little earlier than the exact target bottom to let the market run itself down to the low target (to allow an extra trade entry at that bottom, scaling in).

That didn’t happen, the market reversed along with my entry, where I took a quick 13 pip TP soon after (worked out at 11p profit after spread+commish).

I then re-entered at a new price drive at the low target and scaled in again, but no low target taken (ie no exact start & no exact reaching a target trading).
This time the reversal took off with both my trades aboard.

I looked for the next single TP exit at around 11p, then let the third trade continue to run out to 17p profit.


Were these perfect exits - NO.
Did I maximise the full runs of profit availability - NO.
However, as I scalp, I was able to take 39 pips off the table this morning, and trading is now over for me in Asia.

I was fortunate to achieve my take profit goal in just a 5 (edit) 25 minute scalping window this morning (doesn’t always happen this way),
and I am thankful and will ask no more from the market this morning.


I now have some daily exercise and music routines to attend to, and some lunch soon, and shall return for the hour leading into Franky to see what the market has done since I left.

I try to work with the market and don’t force it or expect any particular prediction bias outcome to occur.
The market is king to me, and I just try and join in for the ride with them.

As traders we all do things slightly differently, and I firmly believe we can all find our own way in the long run.

All the best d-y with your own charts & assessments sir.

.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,915
  • Jun 27, 2022 12:34am Jun 27, 2022 12:34am
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Hi d-y, I do not offer the following as any trade advice or suggest that this is the way to ever trade. (the next trade I might be trading with a brand new momentum, towards a major target, who knows, not me in advance anyway) Just how different traders can look at the same market in a slightly different manner. So. Mate there are many ways to skin a cat in Forex. And each trader will trade to their own preferences. GBPJPY this morning, about an hour after the usual JPY announcements (9.50am Briz), they ran the upper lower ADR out to over...
You hide your real lesson sir Time Tell, from your post above you teach me another BEST lesson about GRATITUDE.

Cha ... cha
Great progress from Flying Dutchman GANG.

GREAT THAANKS AAAAAL
  • #1,916
  • Jun 27, 2022 3:16am Jun 27, 2022 3:16am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Hi Rmg, last year I tried to introduce this idea about fx market valuation and I failed. Let me try to explain this the correct way. Fx is priced based on the fair value of the currency pair. Price will trade inside this upper and lower range of this fair value. "George" targets are candlesticks that test this upper lower range. So, in general targets visually mark the value range. It's not difficult to identify targets. However, we read on this thread and all George's thread this problem how to identify which target ? And how to know if...
Really appreciate sir BW

Buy when the asset is undervalued/underpriced/at discount.
Sell when the asset is overvalued/overpriced/at premium.
at all time objectively track, UPDATING and measure market maker FAIR VALUE INTENT in real time (MM MATH BASED CODE ALGORITHMA)
  • #1,917
  • Jun 27, 2022 4:00am Jun 27, 2022 4:00am
Another GBPJPY day is finished for me now, and I will look in tomorrow to see what the Market did during New York


How did it pan out.

A mixture of …

The Good,
the Bad

AND the Ugly

(as I took the sell trade for a loss though with price under the Day Open Line BUT with price still sitting right AT Inflection.
Rather than being patient, as I always recommend to others , by just WAITING for the upcoming thrust/momentum candle ie no predictions)


Anyway, I do NOT have a rigid trading mindset, and I DO question everything so,

after closing the losing trade, and with price NOW above the Day Open Line with a momentum candle, I quickly flipped to a buy trade,
and then scaled in twice more for short winners to negate the loser and show a profit on the basket.


I don’t post charts of these trades as an example of what traders 'SHOULD' DO .
I often assist myself, by putting them out here for my own reflection & learning later.
Trade well, trade safe.

.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPYM5 asia franky.png Size: 11 KB
  • #1,918
  • Jun 27, 2022 11:06am Jun 27, 2022 11:06am
Quoting Onra
Do you think it's accumulation for a further move up?
Hi Onra, the candlestick took out Friday target then defied gravity and switched on jet engine to propel upwards.

Quoting Onra
Can you time it or simply wait for the break-out?
Take a look at EU on m5 chart for timing.

I shared everything about value trading that's possible to post on FF.

I hope you finally find what you're looking for. Good luck

Cheers
Know what you trade
  • #1,919
  • Jun 27, 2022 11:47am Jun 27, 2022 11:47am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Hi Onra, the candlestick took out Friday target then defied gravity and switched on jet engine to propel upwards. {quote} Take a look at EU on m5 chart for timing. I shared everything about value trading that's possible to post on FF. I hope you finally find what you're looking for. Good luck Cheers
Man oh man, your magic is driving me mad...
Thanks, I keep plodding along; hopping from one thread to another...
  • #1,920
  • Edited Jun 28, 2022 12:43am Jun 27, 2022 10:45pm | Edited Jun 28, 2022 12:43am
Quoting Onra
Man oh man, your magic is driving me mad... Thanks, I keep plodding along; hopping from one thread to another...
Hi Onra, last year I wrote a post that the problem with most people is they lack understanding. Everyone see, very few understand.

It comes across as an insult. But it's what it is.

Worse than lack of understanding, they have a close mind. This means their whatever understanding is stubbornly held bounded inside the walls of their ignorance.

If only you are willing to set aside your ego, there's no chance to go beyond your current bounded understanding. Your ego is the real problem. It's has become a barrier that blocked one person in this world, ie. You.

Onra, the core principle is found in this image. Stare at it until you expand your understanding that's currently lacking. Anyone and everyone can draw up this image, the first lesson that people learn. But very, very, very few understand the true meaning and potential of this simple image. Everything you need is in this image.

Don't go running around threads. Don't buy exotic data. Don't buy sophisticated indicators. Don't waste your time with other stuff. Don't waste time with guru trader. Don't waste money with mentorship. Throw all your understanding that you were indoctrinated with from sites like FF and YouTube into the rubbish bin.

This image is all you need.
And your brains.

I know many members are looking at this thread. I have given clear simple pointers. Remove your ego. Put on your thinking cap. This is the time to show how smart you are, how creative you are, how ingenious you are, how meticulous you are. Figure out the true potential of this simple image. Trust yourself, you have brains, use it.

I don't mean to sound condescending or arrogant. I have no intention to insult. Many have written to me to help them. If you want help, if you think you need help to go to the next level, then figure out this simple image.

And don't forget the lines, mol, wol, dol.
And George's targets.

Most important, wipe out everything that you've learnt. Just simple LL, LH, HH, HL. That's it. What understanding did you miss from this? Yes, you miss. And gone down the wrong path.

I have to write this post for those who reach out to me, I won't ignore you, I just need time figure out how to tell you. I'm NOT a guru, I have never told how to trade. I just share some pointers from my years of research work on Andy's thread.

If you think you already know then move on.
This post is not for you. Pls ignore.
(I hope I don't get into trouble with this post.)

Happy trading everyone.

Ps for starters, complete the markings pls. Don't leave out markings.

Pps, to the person who asked how did I pinpoint that target. The target is already there on your chart. Look hard at it again, you missed it.

Ppps. Financial markets are highly supervised and controlled by governing entities. That's why market appears on the chart the way it does.

Pppps. Your understanding was given by someone else.

Ppppps. Onra, you asked a valid question, that's your brain talking. When you can answer your own question you have found the core principle.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPYM15%20all%20the%20same%20behaviour.png Size: 17 KB
Know what you trade
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