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  • #1,881
  • Jun 24, 2022 11:08pm Jun 24, 2022 11:08pm
Quoting Onra
{quote} Frankly, I'm still puzzled by the concept of "targets"... If we view them as liquidity pools, they make sense on the smaller TF's, but not on a Weekly... The only liquidity resting on the extremes is dumb retail money, like myself, letting price get back to their stops or, maybe..., governments stepping in to protect their currency...
Hi Onra, lets assume you are a chief forex strategist of a bank.

Would this idea about liquidity pools, volume, volume delta, smart and dumb money, retail stop loss hunting apply to you?
To what extent the forex market volume data and order book info is available to you ?

Assume retail forex traders have the same access, can retail traders with this data then transform to become profitable traders ?
If yes, how do we explain for the high attrition rate of bank traders ?
Know what you trade
  • #1,882
  • Edited Jun 25, 2022 5:46am Jun 24, 2022 11:29pm | Edited Jun 25, 2022 5:46am
Quoting HTG
{quote} Hello BWilliam, quick question, what's the reason you trade? I think @Ihlas gets it, although I am just basing that off one statement. Aim to make money Traders may think they trade for different reason or try to set there sights on a particular reason to trade to satisfy there internal voice on why they are trading but in the end this is there downfall, there is only one reason: (I want to note that this response is really for the ones that are not consistently profitable year after year, or struggling to make money)...
Hi HTG, yes all of us trade for the [big] money.

This is a good post by Breza.
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...4#post14025754
(Long term, consistent profitability is not the yardstick for big money.)

It takes money to make money.
It takes big money to make big money.
Given this limitation of forex trading.
Some may think this business is not worth the time.

Trade for the money is classified into 2 main groups.

1. make big money from much bigger money, and
2. make big money from small money.

Is it realistic to make big money from small money ?

How do we make big money from small money ?

1. By applying high leverage with large lotsize on small pips move, or

2. By trading the big pips move with normal leverage and lotsize.

Which trader are we ?
Know what you trade
  • #1,883
  • Jun 25, 2022 12:57am Jun 25, 2022 12:57am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Hi Onra, my chart analysis is based on the real world economy that analyse the fair value of the currency pair. Targets represent price levels that create questions about valuation of the asset. Update - conclusion for the trading week. How do we spot daily open line Thursday as target2 ? Why is dol Thursday important for future trading ? Post FOMC closing at day high, price started to drop back in London session. Until ..... https://news.sky.com/story/uk-centra...rates-12635574 This report is...
Too advanced concept sir Williams, for street man like me. ( cause you live in different dimension w/ different mind-set i think a.k.a forecasting mode)

While me, on waiting mode
For, AFTER price absorb stop-loss pool and break-out trader order pools ABOVE 15/1H/4H target and/or HRS/HSM zone (strike zone inside the TMA mtf band), then I see how price REACT while averageing with price filter probability (calculated ahead) at target line or HSM/HRM validation line break/hit. is it WILL reverse OR GO to the next target above/below (without reversal).

George way is NOT easy, and BWilliam way is even more NOT easy. imho
But the EDGE is absolute and infinite : mm manipulation pshychology AND target.

Still building the picture , incrementally and sloooowlly.
Thanks ALL

Hope i'm wrong
  • #1,884
  • Edited 1:53am Jun 25, 2022 1:26am | Edited 1:53am
Quoting TimeTells
GBPUSD overview the past 2½ weeks . {image}
Just my note n' observation ?

am I need to trade TO target from where the price is now ? (forecasting mode)
or
am I waiting price arrive AT target and trade away ? (waiting mode)

second question is more safe for me .

Where is right ?
Where is less riskier ?

What most likely scenario happen first ? (forecasting mode)
Will MM do up-town shooping for down-town bussines first ? or
Will MM do down-town shooping for up-town bussines first ? or

I don't care what the MM will do, I just wait the MM train arrive at ANY target first, then take the trade ? (waiting mode)

Whats better ?
from my limited understanding ?

Still learn
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,885
  • Jun 25, 2022 2:29am Jun 25, 2022 2:29am
Quoting deanyakobs
{quote} Just my note n' observation ? am I need to trade TO target from where the price is now ? (forecasting mode) or am I waiting price arrive AT target and trade away ? (waiting mode) second question is more safe for me . Where is right ? Where is less riskier ? What most likely scenario happen first ? (forecasting mode) Will MM do up-town shooping for down-town bussines first ? or Will MM do down-town shooping for up-town bussines first ? or I don't care what the MM will do, I just wait the MM train arrive at ANY target first, then take the...
Hello Dean how are you, i hope you are doing well with good health

as per above post did u forgot this target or any other reason
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,886
  • Jun 25, 2022 2:57am Jun 25, 2022 2:57am
Quoting deanyakobs
{quote}
am I need to trade TO target from where the price is now ? (forecasting mode)
or am I waiting price arrive AT target and trade away ? (waiting mode)
second question is more safe for me .
Where is right ?
Where is less riskier ?
What most likely scenario happen first ?

Hi d-y,

Mate I wrote you out a full FF page reply (seriously )
but when I got to the very end I realised I could probably just have answered it far more simply, like this.


Hi deany

You will encounter ongoing trade assessment requirements & decisions to be made in the moment

WHETHER you are trading TO the next target …

OR waiting for price to arrive AT the target.


Both will have their pros & cons that must be dealt with as an individual, in the moment, based on the information available at the time.
all the best, sir.
  • #1,887
  • Jun 25, 2022 3:52am Jun 25, 2022 3:52am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Hi Onra, my chart analysis is based on the real world economy that analyse the fair value of the currency pair. Targets represent price levels that create questions about valuation of the asset. Update - conclusion for the trading week. How do we spot daily open line Thursday as target2 ? Why is dol Thursday important for future trading ? Post FOMC closing at day high, price started to drop back in London session. Until ..... https://news.sky.com/story/uk-centra...rates-12635574 This report is...
Thanks; I can see the logic behind all this, but not the effect.

The only thing I could have come up with was "positive news for GBP"...
I would have been shaken out on the preliminary down move AND wouldn't have expected price to come back again...
and certainly not the start of a range at the 1.2250 level...

Do you think it's accumulation for a further move up?
Can you time it or simply wait for the break-out?
  • #1,888
  • Jun 25, 2022 4:05am Jun 25, 2022 4:05am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Hi Onra, lets assume you are a chief forex strategist of a bank. Would this idea about liquidity pools, volume, volume delta, smart and dumb money, retail stop loss hunting apply to you? To what extent the forex market volume data and order book info is available to you ? Assume retail forex traders have the same access, can retail traders with this data then transform to become profitable traders ? If yes, how do we explain for the high attrition rate of bank traders ?
Thanks for asking these questions; this lack of knowledge is a weak spot of mine...

Big banks can see the whole order book; big orders, big clients, big money...
They only try to buy it from X and sell it to Y (matching); and mostly are not interested in holding for their own profit.

I can only see some orders from my brokers very near current price (Level 2?)
I never watch it; orders appearing and disappearing in a flash; I assume all retail.
As I'm trading small; there's always liquidity under normal conditions.

I can't figure out how I can affect or influence these retail orders...
  • #1,889
  • Jun 25, 2022 4:16am Jun 25, 2022 4:16am
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Hi d-y, Mate I wrote you out a full FF page reply (seriously ) but when I got to the very end I realised I could probably just have answered it far more simply, like this. Hi deany You will encounter ongoing trade assessment requirements & decisions to be made in the moment WHETHER you are trading TO the next target … OR waiting for price to arrive AT the target. Both will have their pros & cons that must be dealt with as an individual, in the moment, based on the information available at the time. all the best, sir.
you help me a lot, MAN

always remind me on the correct path.
Cha ... cha

Thanks GAAAANG
  • #1,890
  • Jun 25, 2022 4:27am Jun 25, 2022 4:27am
Quoting venkatredy
{quote} Hello Dean how are you, i hope you are doing well with good health as per above post did u forgot this target or any other reason{image}
please Venka don't do selective reading.
Hope you back to read sir George PAATC thread (the first thread)

The 2 target that you mark with blue circle is finish. Its done
Your stoploss belong to the mighty Nakamoto Kokorotomo.

Always hope u learn and learn
Regards
  • #1,891
  • Jun 25, 2022 5:53am Jun 25, 2022 5:53am
Quoting Onra
Do you think it's accumulation for a further move up? Can you time it or simply wait for the break-out?
Hi Onra, GU traded in a narrow 160 pips range last week. Given BOE's intent, it might break north next week.
Quoting Onra
Can you time it or simply wait for the break-out?
I don't do prediction of what might happen in the future - in this respect anything is possible. So it makes sense to wait for the market to show us.
Know what you trade
  • #1,892
  • Edited 2:12pm Jun 25, 2022 9:29am | Edited 2:12pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote}Based on the report, BOE has decided to "forcefully" use the interest rate and foreign exchange lever to fight inflation. {image}
Hi BWilliam, I have some notes and thoughts on the recent BOE policy meeting and their decision to raise the Bank Rate to 1.25%. The BOE stated that they are prepared to forcefully use interest rate policy to battle inflation, and later walked back the word forcefully and replaced it with flexibly. At their meeting, with the backdrop of 9.1% inflation, they voted 6-3 to raise rates .25% to 1.25%. Their next meeting is in August, with inflation expectations of over 11% by October 2022.

Compare the BOE to the other side of the currency pair, and you see the Fed, in their last meeting, and with the backdrop of 8.6% inflation, raising the Fed Fund rate by .75% to 1.75%. The Fed will meet again around July 21 and is expected to raise rates again by at least .5%, and possibly another .75%, depending on the inflation numbers coming out on July13.

In terms of the comparative picture of rising rates, the Fed is aggressively raising rates while the BOE is still sorting out their plan. Officials at both banks are extremely concerned about what they are seeing unfold in the US after the last rate increase, and flexibility, not forceful, should be the word of the day.
  • #1,893
  • Edited 7:04pm Jun 25, 2022 6:25pm | Edited 7:04pm
Quoting deanyakobs
{quote}
Just my note n' observation ? am I need to trade TO target from where the price is now ? (forecasting mode) or am I waiting price arrive AT target and trade away ?

Hi d-y

A little more food for thought in regards to your earlier post on Target Trading.
This is not as any recommendation but mainly for consideration.

If we as a trader only consider waiting till price reaches a target, OR only to trade TO a target,
then we are (maybe) dealing with the concept of which came first, a chicken or an egg.


By that I mean if we have decided to always trade AFTER price has reached a target,
then we may well have missed a potential opportunity, as,
once a target is ‘reached’ it obviously means price had to ... get TO the target first.

In that instance I asked myself why not also consider a trade, at some point, during the price momentum TOWARDS a target
(notice I also say during & towards and not from the actual start or target completion, which of course would be the ideal situations).

Yet if we have decided to always trade TO a target (and not wait for its arrival AT the target),
then maybe we will not have given ourselves a great opportunity to observe what happens once price arrives there.

When price reaches a target a trader would have two considerations.
One consideration would be whether price will now reverse and allow an immediate trade in the opposite direction from which price came.
The other would be whether price will still continue in the same direction from which price came (and maybe even form a grind).

In a temporary or long term stage after price HAS reached a target there could then be a waiting period for the next price direction outcome,
which I call an Inflection Point, and comes before the outcome of direction after the ranging/accumulation/consolidation etc.


After a target is reached price could break through & continue. And THEN also continue through multiple targets into what we would call a grind.
After a target is reached price could immediately reverse and return (and often enough, we have seen, right back to where the price move started).
But after a target is reached, price may also rotate above & below an inflection area for a period until it finally breaks away.

(If the inflection rotations become set ranges, but not expanding ranges, then a trader could also consider trading/scalping those ranges, over & over maybe,
but this becomes advanced stuff and should be treated with great caution until a trader is experienced in all possible trade outcomes during that stage).


These are just some of the considerations a target trader might have when contemplating trading to or from targets (or both).

all the best d-y
  • #1,894
  • Edited 9:52pm Jun 25, 2022 8:39pm | Edited 9:52pm
Quoting Onra
{quote} Thanks; I can see the logic behind all this, but not the effect. The only thing I could have come up with was "positive news for GBP"... I would have been shaken out on the preliminary down move AND wouldn't have expected price to come back again... and certainly not the start of a range at the 1.2250 level... Do you think it's accumulation for a further move up? Can you time it or simply wait for the break-out?
Hi Onra, let me give you a more elaborate answer.

I don't think in terms of support resistance, supply demand, volume and volume delta, accumulation/consolidation, range/trend/direction/momentum and all the traditional technical analysis.

Price rise because of under-valuation or change in macro value due to monetary policy changes vv. Price almost always trade inside this value range. Except for black Swan events. Price don't rise because of supply and demand. Or at least such ideas don't offer any use to determine potential macro changes in value. Supply and demand merely move price to/from the upper and lower level(target) of this value range. Outlier prices at lower range(target) offers buying opportunity vv.

Market keeps changing it's macro fair value in a continuous fashion. Besides sd push price to upper/lower levels of the micro value range. This price changes create micro and macro over/under-valuation situations that offer trading opportunities since price is expected to trade inside this value range and return to fair value. And fair value changes over time.

Read GEfx post above. It's an important differential monetary policy to evaluate macro fair value intent.

Based on this, I don't track volume, supply demand, candle pattern and so on. I track fair value and situations of over/under-valuation. I track value intent.

This post clarifies how I see the market. Cheers.
Know what you trade
  • #1,895
  • Jun 25, 2022 9:33pm Jun 25, 2022 9:33pm
Why fair value intent is important?

US30 chart as example. Market traded above week open line the whole week. Friday market traded above the daily open line and broke week high just below last week open line and target1. Given the volatility in London session market has clearly changed it's fair value intent to recalibrate towards target2.

If trader traded against this fair value change the result can be bad.
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...9#post14044139
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: us30.PNG Size: 17 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: us30a.PNG Size: 11 KB
Know what you trade
  • #1,896
  • Jun 25, 2022 9:36pm Jun 25, 2022 9:36pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Hi d-y A little more food for thought in regards to your earlier post on Target Trading. This is not as any recommendation but mainly for consideration. If we as a trader only consider waiting till price reaches a target, OR only to trade TO a target, then we are (maybe) dealing with the concept of which came first, a chicken or an egg. By that I mean if we have decided to always trade AFTER price has reached a target, then we may well have missed a potential opportunity, as, once a target is ‘reached’ it obviously means price had to ......
You nailed that Pete.
It seems you got complete approach dependingon price dynamics at the moment (what is happening). Sometimes you TRADE TO TARGET, others time you TRADE AWAY from TARGET, and in between you trade BASED on MOMENTUM.

Imho, i still prefer with only one approach : trade only AFTER price breach AT target AND consume stop loss pool ABOVE/BELOW that target or HRSM/HSMV (a.k.a strike zone) cause George always remind to take ALL entry based on (slighty below or above it) TARGET at STRIKE ZONE confluence with MTF TMA (waiting mode).

So I never assume what likely direction NEXT. Yeah ... NEVER ASSUME (very like that words) so we become more stress free trader. JUST WAITING AND REACT at all time.

BUT you correct that it seems l often missed a potential opportunity (something missing in my approach or i overlook some point of observation in price behaviour).

above all
Thanks PETE.
Really appreciate

learn and dig deeper here to always improve my undertanding 360 degree
  • #1,897
  • Edited 10:41pm Jun 25, 2022 9:57pm | Edited 10:41pm
Quoting BWilliam
Why fair value intent is important? US30 chart as example. Market traded above week open line the whole week. Friday market traded above the daily open line and week high just below last week open line and target1. Given the volatility in London session market has clearly changed it's fair value intent to recalibrate towards target1. If trader traded against this fair value change the result can be bad. https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...9#post14044139 {image} {image}
Woow ... new word and new world
Hmmmmm ... next year curicculum

I am on George schollar on MM Pshycho and TARGET, and not pass yet the exam in real time. Strike rate is only 80% and stiil often miss DIRECTION (intent) SWITCH
I'm not aware that the MM change or recalibrate his INTENT direction on certain target.
whooa, its seems ME VS ME but I got that UN-AWARE while trading.

But sir BW, it seems your INTENT concept is different from sir George INTENT theory.
Your concept is about MM VALUATION INTENT a.k.a fair value (or the median) with under price and overprice limit.

But sir George is about MM INTENT a.k.a always targeting stop loss pool above or below the TARGET while at same time validating herd support and resistance mentality in CERTAIN time frame OR making NEW target in ANOTHER time frame (ALWAYS KILL THREE BIRDS IN ONE STONE), but doing that in one and two step ahead from us.

It seems the MM always try to hide his real intent and know too well my trading bias in highest detail. George call it herd or mob behaviour and exploit it in highest order. Targeting stop, validating fake S/R, making NEW target AT THE SAME TIME in different time frame

Day by day this price dynamics always AMAZE ME after 2 years observation.

As much as possible to confuse, trap and kill my normal mind
most of the time.

IS THIS TRUE ?
Emm ...
IS IT REAL common sense, right ? IN TRADING

ITS ALL ABOUT MM PSYCHO AT DEEPEST CORE.
Then 2% is price dynamics.
AND INDICATOR JUNKIE
Sorry, George thread is too bold to be true, maybe
so sexy in my world, ONLY

ok, sorry
This just my uncontrroled typing here and my hand going like Ellon Musk rocket.
Dig deeper, or I study it shallowly, maybe.
  • #1,898
  • Jun 25, 2022 10:03pm Jun 25, 2022 10:03pm
Quoting deanyakobs
{quote} Sometimes you TRADE TO TARGET, others time you TRADE AWAY from TARGET, and in between you trade BASED on MOMENTUM.
Imho, i still prefer with only one approach

Hi d-y,

Yes, I believe a trader will trade best from their preference (and there is no ONE way is the best way in trading).

Also to PERFECT our preferred way of trading is the best outlook to have imho, so we always work hard on perfecting our way of trading.

There is no need to have too many pots on the stove, at the one time, to start with .

all the best sir
Pete
  • #1,899
  • Jun 26, 2022 3:55am Jun 26, 2022 3:55am
Quoting BWilliam
Why fair value intent is important? US30 chart as example. Market traded above week open line the whole week. Friday market traded above the daily open line and broke week high just below last week open line and target1. Given the volatility in London session market has clearly changed it's fair value intent to recalibrate towards target2. If trader traded against this fair value change the result can be bad. https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...9#post14044139 {image} {image}
How do you determine the targets or what is the secret behind algo math targets?
care to share?
on a postive roll...
  • #1,900
  • Jun 26, 2022 4:38am Jun 26, 2022 4:38am
Quoting BWilliam
Why fair value intent is important? US30 chart as example. Market traded above week open line the whole week. Friday market traded above the daily open line and broke week high just below last week open line and target1. Given the volatility in London session market has clearly changed it's fair value intent to recalibrate towards target2. If trader traded against this fair value change the result can be bad. https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...9#post14044139 {image} {image}
Thank you!
Would you agree that a closing price is "Fair Value"...
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