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Roadmap - A Way To Read Markets

  • #4,981
  • Edited 11:42am Mar 13, 2022 8:05am | Edited 11:42am
Quoting munger
would you be so kind and tell me your expectation for next weeks trading? Or do you post trades in advance / if you start a position or only when finished? i am on my way to start with fx trading mostly 1h charts sometimes 5m fits me best and i was surprised by the EUR strength this week and the nzd weakness... for next week i want to long the CAD and the AUD maybe against JPY and or EUR at good levels which i need to identify further down the road. Greetings!!!
I have no idea where the market will go next week, I try to not consider that especially for intraday trading, I trade daily and H4 mainly now due to ill health.
The best thing for you to do is start at the very begining of this thread and read it through including Laura's journal thread, it's a system in its own right and it's a profitable one too. Then if you're stuck for any reason post a question about the method
  • #4,982
  • Mar 13, 2022 8:14am Mar 13, 2022 8:14am
Quoting ChubbyWookie
{quote} I have my conspiracy theories on what moves price. Its interesting to review major events like the Jan 6th capitol riot in the US or the Russian/Ukraine war. Its almost like the market knew what was going to happen Long story short I was using Fractional disparity and Price action to aid in my selection of pairs. With USDX being strong we can often suspect EUR and GBP to be weak. With AUD also becoming strong we can now suspect EUR/AUD and GBP/USD to be...
Great post CW, I'll have a study later when I'm feeling a bit better
Many thanks
  • #4,983
  • Mar 14, 2022 7:54am Mar 14, 2022 7:54am
Quoting ChubbyWookie
{quote} I have my conspiracy theories on what moves price. Its interesting to review major events like the Jan 6th capitol riot in the US or the Russian/Ukraine war. Its almost like the market knew what was going to happen Long story short I was using Fractional disparity and Price action to aid in my selection of pairs. With USDX being strong we can often suspect EUR and GBP to be weak. With AUD also becoming strong we can now suspect EUR/AUD and GBP/USD to be...
I, sort of, use that Fractional Disparity already, although I didn't call it that. Thanks for highlighting the site.
I've been watching charts for years and mainly focus on majors with the important crosses, plus the USD index and JPY which are the traditional reserve currencies. Plus lately I've added Softs because of their seasonal predictability, and US Indices because of a massive correction due, but that's not happened yet! Maybe because of the war, who knows. Need to be careful I don't add too many
  • #4,984
  • Mar 14, 2022 11:52am Mar 14, 2022 11:52am
Quoting gazgaz2000
{quote} Looking at the trades, it can range between 15 minutes and 6 hours - one occasion it took 10 hours (based on a 10 pip Stop and 20 pip Target) with the average being 2 hours across all trades noted.
Unfortunately waiting seems to be a big portion of the game. It can be tough sitting in front of the screen. It helps me to change positions like using a sit/stand desk or laying on the couch. However your still in front of the screen. If you haven't already i would take note of the time your best entries are. You may then be able to limit time in front of the computer knowing that 70% the time there is a move between 6-7AM. And with such a high win rate you should be comfortable walking away with a stop in place. Sometimes when i get tired of waiting I will set an alert to warn me price is approaching a area of interest
  • #4,985
  • Mar 14, 2022 12:30pm Mar 14, 2022 12:30pm
Quoting rover99x
{quote} I, sort of, use that Fractional Disparity already, although I didn't call it that. Thanks for highlighting the site. I've been watching charts for years and mainly focus on majors with the important crosses, plus the USD index and JPY which are the traditional reserve currencies. Plus lately I've added Softs because of their seasonal predictability, and US Indices because of a massive correction due, but that's not happened yet! Maybe because of the war, who knows. Need to be careful I don't add too many
Yeah thats the one thing we have to watch out for (looking at to much). No need to over complicate things. Fractional disparity is amazing but it can also be overwhelming and may give us analysis paralysis if not careful. I really like USDX with the majors. Especially Euro since it makes up the majority (https://www.dailyfx.com/us-dollar-in...lar-index.html)

For the newer members of roadmap. Fractional disparity is not needed to become successful at the roadmap
  • #4,986
  • Mar 14, 2022 1:32pm Mar 14, 2022 1:32pm
Quoting ChubbyWookie
{quote} Not sure who your referring to? However in general i do not feel comfortable posting trades in real time. The last thing we need is someone to do something when not understanding why it was done. It also takes me way to long to post. I must be 2+ hours in these last 3 post. I have a hard time getting out whats in my head into something meaningful. Really shows how much talent Laura has. I to also will try to plan out the week however always keep in mind it can change on a whim. For instance briefly looking at the carts I see AUD/USD is testing...
Not to far off. But as you can see it all depends on what price does at the areas of support/resistance. Big round numbers are often good support/resistance areas and places to watch closely to how price reacts. Also drew in a few more areas that i would be looking closely at if price continues
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  • #4,987
  • Mar 21, 2022 1:49pm Mar 21, 2022 1:49pm
Hi all,
I came across this thread and have been reading it over the weekend, currently on page 20 out of 250 so it will take a while to get through it all lol. I've set up the chart, and just wondered if this RSI value is supposed to stay the same on all timeframes?

Thanks for any answers, and thanks Laura for sharing this strategy, it's very interesting and certainly a different kind of way to frame the market.

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  • #4,988
  • Mar 21, 2022 2:00pm Mar 21, 2022 2:00pm
Quoting bluepanido
Hi all, I came across this thread and have been reading it over the weekend, currently on page 20 out of 250 so it will take a while to get through it all lol. I've set up the chart, and just wondered if this RSI value is supposed to stay the same on all timeframes? Thanks for any answers, and thanks Laura for sharing this strategy, it's very interesting and certainly a different kind of way to frame the market. {image}
Hi,

Yes - the value will stay the same on any timeframe you are viewing.
  • #4,989
  • Mar 21, 2022 9:02pm Mar 21, 2022 9:02pm
My broker's "Contact Help" reply couldn't tell mewhat the value reading meant: pips, percent, ?. Investopedia didn't help either. Anyone?
  • #4,990
  • Edited 5:50am Mar 22, 2022 5:24am | Edited 5:50am
Quoting LauraT
{quote} Hi, Yes - the value will stay the same on any timeframe you are viewing.
Thanks very much.

There's something else I'm stuck on. This indicator is the same on every Forex pair and index. Doesn't seem to be working. I got the indis and stuff from the first page of the thread. Has there been an updated version posted since, or is there something I can do to fix this?

Thanks again.

EDIT: Now with image
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  • #4,991
  • Mar 22, 2022 6:25am Mar 22, 2022 6:25am
Quoting bluepanido
{quote} Thanks very much. There's something else I'm stuck on. This indicator is the same on every Forex pair and index. Doesn't seem to be working. I got the indis and stuff from the first page of the thread. Has there been an updated version posted since, or is there something I can do to fix this? Thanks again. EDIT: Now with image {image}
I think someone else had that issue a long time ago but I can't remember what the fix was.

However, you are better using the more up to date option here:

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...1#post13303331

It combines the trend band and the composite RSI value.
  • #4,992
  • Mar 22, 2022 9:23am Mar 22, 2022 9:23am
Quoting LauraT
{quote} I think someone else had that issue a long time ago but I can't remember what the fix was. However, you are better using the more up to date option here: https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...1#post13303331 It combines the trend band and the composite RSI value.
Thanks again Laura. I've been observing a few markets today with the template (not actually taking trades yet) and I've seen some good setups play out. Nice one, now that I've got a working panel I'll be trading this on demo from tomorrow. I'll post results and a link to a journal of my trades if that's okay. Perhaps get some feedback on them which could help us all to learn.
  • #4,993
  • Mar 23, 2022 6:32am Mar 23, 2022 6:32am
Just took my first trade. Comments below the slide. Any feedback appreciated. Thanks.

https://docs.google.com/presentation...1e99c14dc4_0_0
  • #4,994
  • Mar 23, 2022 6:48am Mar 23, 2022 6:48am
Quoting bluepanido
Just took my first trade. Comments below the slide. Any feedback appreciated. Thanks. https://docs.google.com/presentation...1e99c14dc4_0_0
Access Denied
  • #4,995
  • Mar 23, 2022 6:50am Mar 23, 2022 6:50am
Quoting LauraT
{quote} Access Denied
sorry, permissions updated now. Thanks.

https://docs.google.com/presentation...it?usp=sharing
  • #4,996
  • Mar 23, 2022 6:57am Mar 23, 2022 6:57am
Quoting bluepanido
Just took my first trade. Comments below the slide. Any feedback appreciated. Thanks. https://docs.google.com/presentation...1e99c14dc4_0_0
Nothing wrong with the trade really but a couple of points to consider:

A retracement seems quite likely. Notice how price is mainly closing on the underside of the channel. Perhaps waiting for a close above the channel would give you more comfort about the bullish pressure.

Your stop might be a little tight if the retrace does occur. Quite possible that the channel will straddle the SMA before price rises again. Worth paying a little extra with your stop to avoid being shaken out of a winning position.

Hope this helps.
  • #4,997
  • Edited 8:08am Mar 23, 2022 7:06am | Edited 8:08am
Quoting LauraT
{quote} Nothing wrong with the trade really but a couple of points to consider: A retracement seems quite likely. Notice how price is mainly closing on the underside of the channel. Perhaps waiting for a close above the channel would give you more comfort about the bullish pressure. Your stop might be a little tight if the retrace does occur. Quite possible that the channel will straddle the SMA before price rises again. Worth paying a little extra with your stop to avoid being shaken out of a winning position. Hope this helps.
{quote} Perhaps waiting for a close above the channel would give you more comfort about the bullish pressure. [/quote]

Thanks. I think I lean more towards a better entry rather confirmation. I'll keep this in mind as I move forward.

{quote}Your stop might be a little tight if the retrace does occur. Quite possible that the channel will straddle the SMA before price rises again. [/quote]

I've moved my stop down a few pips where price and the channel come above the SMA. I'm not doing position sizing yet, just 0.01 lots per trade while I'm learning and practicing the strategy, so increasing the SL doesn't make a difference in terms of risk

Thanks again
  • #4,998
  • Mar 23, 2022 7:33am Mar 23, 2022 7:33am
I've taken a 2nd trade for the day. ATR trade, 5M on UJ. Slide 3
https://docs.google.com/presentation...it?usp=sharing
  • #4,999
  • Mar 23, 2022 1:42pm Mar 23, 2022 1:42pm
This was the trade I lost today. I see that I should have had my SL below what would have been a clear swing low on a higher timeframe, which would have given me a winner.
My question is, had I still been in the trade, would you close when it seems to hit a bit of 5M resistance like I've highlighted here. Sorry if this has been covered, but I'm only up to page 23 in slowly reading and digesting this thread.

Thanks,
Peter
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  • #5,000
  • Mar 23, 2022 1:57pm Mar 23, 2022 1:57pm
Quoting bluepanido
This was the trade I lost today. I see that I should have had my SL below what would have been a clear swing low on a higher timeframe, which would have given me a winner. My question is, had I still been in the trade, would you close when it seems to hit a bit of 5M resistance like I've highlighted here. Sorry if this has been covered, but I'm only up to page 23 in slowly reading and digesting this thread. Thanks, Peter {image}
Personal preference really.

I'd likely wait a little to see if the resistance was cleared. When price revisits an area so often in such a short time, it has a decent chance of breaking through.
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