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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #649,921
  • Jan 28, 2022 4:57am Jan 28, 2022 4:57am
... consolidation now on 1hr re the 4hr downtrend...is this the pattern for the day? Sub 1hr t/f's in play.

1hr below.
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #649,922
  • Jan 28, 2022 5:02am Jan 28, 2022 5:02am
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #649,923
  • Jan 28, 2022 5:07am Jan 28, 2022 5:07am
Quoting Bones
{image}
Lol. Anyone remember this? (go to 0:54secs) it's deja vous (again!)

Nixon - There can be no whitewash at the White House - YouTube
Trader with an Edge.
  • #649,924
  • Jan 28, 2022 5:08am Jan 28, 2022 5:08am
Quoting Bones
{quote} I reviewed eu and see there was a mistake of the starting point , since a trend line should be anchored to important strong price points with no carving of pa ,I hadn't noticed the that level has so many points with the tweezer anyway I definitely think this chart has limited downside scope beyond that low you can start a line off a tweezer open {image}
Yes. I see it. I am already long on EU from the lows and holding at least today and Monday. Thanks for the chart.
  • #649,925
  • Jan 28, 2022 5:13am Jan 28, 2022 5:13am
Quoting Headland
...meantime, on the dly there is a good bullish hidden div pattern (probably valid so long as price above 3174,) but there is not a next higher t/f (wkly) uptrend to enter after such a pullback. This said there is a 'general' expanding triangle pattern on that t/f which may be signalling a trend change? Food for thought. Exp tri marked by points 1,2,3,4 and wherever 5 may come - ie at the current wkly lo or lower. dly below {image}
here is not a next higher t/f (wkly) uptrend to enter after such a pullback.

1. My definition of "next higher TF" from D1 is D2, not W1. You are missing valuable information by not including TFs that are missing from MT4.
2. W2 is in a rally to MN2, so the D1 (and D2) are in a pullback to the W2 rally. So their expected behavior is to make an up continuation to that rally.
3. Where/when to make an entry is another matter.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #649,926
  • Jan 28, 2022 5:14am Jan 28, 2022 5:14am
Quoting Headland
... I wonder whether fomc had sight of the U.s gdp # before they announced the end of their effective Qe earlier this week? Good # and showing the U.s economy growing well. They have a problem with labor force numbers - ie people dropping out of the labor market to take up vacancies which may slow things down, but the recent inflation-fueled pivot to a more hawkish fed stance(relatively speaking) will likely see some rate rises too. Uk too likely to see good but less spectacular growth and continued pressure re inflation resulting in more rate rises...
If you are smart enough to work out the economy´s future in western world, i ´ll give you the ingredient:


Population down to 20% in the next 2 years. work it out.
POSTMASTER
  • #649,927
  • Jan 28, 2022 5:16am Jan 28, 2022 5:16am
...what's the next variant gonna be called, my guess (if they continue in alphabetical order re greek alphabet) is pi? Quite why they jumped from delta to omicron missing out 10 letters I have no idea.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #649,928
  • Edited 5:31am Jan 28, 2022 5:21am | Edited 5:31am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} here is not a next higher t/f (wkly) uptrend to enter after such a pullback. 1. My definition of "next higher TF" from D1 is D2, not W1. You are missing valuable information by not including TFs that are missing from MT4. 2. W2 is in a rally to MN2, so the D1 (and D2) are in a pullback to the W2 rally. So their expected behavior is to make an up continuation to that rally. 3. Where/when to make an entry is another matter.
... just rising by x 2 from D1 to D2 doesn't work in my analysis, ie for a triple t/f combination you need to x it by at a factor of at least x4 (ideally,) but no more than x6, so for eg 3min/15min/1hr, or indeed dly/wkly/mthly. It all depends on one's own analysis type/edge. Mine is based around the classic triple t/f analysis technique as written about by Dr. Alex Elder in his books, which include Come into my Trading room.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #649,929
  • Jan 28, 2022 5:21am Jan 28, 2022 5:21am
Quoting Headland
...meantime, on the dly there is a good bullish hidden div pattern (probably valid so long as price above 3174,) but there is not a next higher t/f (wkly) uptrend to enter after such a pullback. This said there is a 'general' expanding triangle pattern on that t/f which may be signalling a trend change? Food for thought. Exp tri marked by points 1,2,3,4 and wherever 5 may come - ie at the current wkly lo or lower. dly below {image}
Exp tri marked by points 1,2,3,4 and wherever 5 may come - ie at the current wkly lo or lower. dly below

So, draw your expanding triangle on D1 and then switch to MN1. See anything interesting now?
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #649,930
  • Jan 28, 2022 5:22am Jan 28, 2022 5:22am
Quoting Headland
...what's the next variant gonna be called, my guess (if they continue in alphabetical order re greek alphabet) is pi? Quite why they jumped from delta to omicron missing out 10 letters I have no idea.
POSTMASTER
  • #649,931
  • Jan 28, 2022 5:43am Jan 28, 2022 5:43am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} Exp tri marked by points 1,2,3,4 and wherever 5 may come - ie at the current wkly lo or lower. dly below So, draw your expanding triangle on D1 and then switch to MN1. See anything interesting now?
There is a 'general' exp tri on D1 as I discussed and posted earlier but for me there is no 'next higher t/f' in this dly/wkly/mthly t/f combo, ie wkly uptrend to enter after a pullback, but the 'general' exp tri may be signaling a possible1hr/4hr/dly downtrend reversal, but where pt 5 may fall is anyone's guess if this scenario plays out. Ie it might be a fib retrace of move 3-4 or an extension of it.

On the mthly we've had a L (3572) below last HL (3669) then a LL @ 3411 (minor though these two fractal swings were) but no LH's yet such is the way the candles formed, so from a technical point of view, i think it is harder to read re trend at the moment.

Dly below.
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #649,932
  • Jan 28, 2022 6:07am Jan 28, 2022 6:07am
Quoting Headland
{quote} ... just rising by x 2 from D1 to D2 doesn't work in my analysis, ie for a triple t/f combination you need to x it by at a factor of at least x4 (ideally,) but no more than x6, so for eg 3min/15min/1hr, or indeed dly/wkly/mthly. It all depends on one's own analysis type/edge. Mine is based around the classic triple t/f analysis technique as written about by Dr. Alex Elder in his books, which include Come into my Trading room.
If it works for you, keep using it.

I compared Elder's triple screen system with what I do and I find that 3x and higher is too coarse. In addition, for the users of charting apps such as MT4, if D1 is your chosen trading chart, then where is the D4 for the higher chart and the H6 for the smaller chart??? Oh, right, we "fudge" the system by having a RANGE of multipliers of 4-6 instead of a fixed value. LOL For example, with highest TF D1, use a factor of 6 to get the H4 as the middle TF. But to get the lowest TF, let's not use that factor of 6 (WHY NOT??????), but instead, let's use a factor of 4 and get the H1. Oh, right, here is the answer to "why not": if after downgrading the charts, the exact time frame doesn’t exist, then as a general rule the closest one is used. LOL The exact TF DOES exist for nearly all cases. The fact that it is not AVAILABLE on your chosen charting application is another matter entirely.

I also find that far more than 3 screens (charts/TFs) are needed for reasonably good results. Of course, no need to have all of the TFs displayed at once; only the ones that are relevant at any given moment.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #649,933
  • Jan 28, 2022 6:08am Jan 28, 2022 6:08am
1.3349 a limit to move down still, yet may not down before 3414, as in m30 tf 5th real extension started at 3467 likely up above before range down of another 5th again can be extended to any low yet. If unable extension below 3524 then near previous high or new high again possible!! Lets how much it can go up today!
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #649,934
  • Jan 28, 2022 6:17am Jan 28, 2022 6:17am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} If it works for you, keep using it. I compared Elder's triple screen system with what I do and I find that 3x and higher is too coarse. In addition, for the users of charting apps such as MT4, if D1 is your chosen trading chart, then where is the D4 for the higher chart and the H6 for the smaller chart??? Oh, right, we "fudge" the system by having a RANGE of multipliers of 4-6 instead of a fixed value. LOL For example, with highest TF D1, use a factor of 6 to get the H4 as the middle TF. But to get the lowest TF, let's not use that factor...
Interesting comments. It does work for me thanks. I tend to agree re MT4 and traders's use of it re it's 'standard' t/f's, although there is the period converter script on it which I use for my 1/5min/30min t/f combo re next t/f which is 2hr (for supp/res.) My other t/f combo is 3min/15min/1hr (/4hr.) I also think you have to use t/f's that 'most of the market are looking at, particularly on 1hr and above, so more traders for eg will be looking at 4hr than 6hr, and more @ wkly than D4 etc etc.. So for my 1m/5m/30min @ a factor of x4 would be 1/4/16 and for my 3/15/1hr would be 3/12/48, no one is looking at these.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #649,935
  • Jan 28, 2022 6:23am Jan 28, 2022 6:23am
Quoting Robinhood1
{quote} If you are smart enough to work out the economy´s future in western world, i ´ll give you the ingredient: Population down to 20% in the next 2 years. work it out.
Okay BS king.

Mucho gracias afición
You have to have an IQ higher than 90 to interact with this user.
  • #649,936
  • Jan 28, 2022 6:25am Jan 28, 2022 6:25am
Quoting Headland
...what's the next variant gonna be called, my guess (if they continue in alphabetical order re greek alphabet) is pi? Quite why they jumped from delta to omicron missing out 10 letters I have no idea.

Actually just skipped 2 due to avoiding misunderstanding

Nu —> new
xi —> president of China

minor variants are not well known to public because they did not spread as much as the major ones.

For example, when Delta was spreading around the world, there were already studies all the way to the Mu variant. The PCR tests for Mu was already ready should it would spread. But then the next variant overwhelmed it - Omicron.
  • #649,937
  • Jan 28, 2022 6:39am Jan 28, 2022 6:39am
Quoting Headland
{quote} Interesting comments. It does work for me thanks. I tend to agree re MT4 and traders's use of it re it's 'standard' t/f's, although there is the period converter script on it which I use for my 1/5min/30min t/f combo re next t/f which is 2hr (for supp/res.) My other t/f combo is 3min/15min/1hr (/4hr.) I also think you have to use t/f's that 'most of the market are looking at, particularly on 1hr and above, so more traders for eg will be looking at 4hr than 6hr, and more @ wkly than D4 etc etc.. So for my 1m/5m/30min @ a factor of x4 would...
So for my 1m/5m/30min @ a factor of x4 would be 1/4/16 and for my 3/15/1hr would be 3/12/48, no one is looking at these.
Have you actually tried 3/12/48 for a month or two? I find no problem with using TFs that the masses aren't looking at. You are looking for relationships between multiple TFs for a directional edge, not for correlations with what other people look at.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #649,938
  • Jan 28, 2022 6:42am Jan 28, 2022 6:42am
Quoting Headland
{quote} There is a 'general' exp tri on D1 as I discussed and posted earlier but for me there is no 'next higher t/f' in this dly/wkly/mthly t/f combo, ie wkly uptrend to enter after a pullback, but the 'general' exp tri may be signaling a possible1hr/4hr/dly downtrend reversal, but where pt 5 may fall is anyone's guess if this scenario plays out. Ie it might be a fib retrace of move 3-4 or an extension of it. On the mthly we've had a L (3572) below last HL (3669) then a LL @ 3411 (minor though these two fractal swings were) but no LH's yet such...
Here is the expanding triangle on D1 and then the MN1 view of it.

Attached Image
Attached Image
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #649,939
  • Jan 28, 2022 6:46am Jan 28, 2022 6:46am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} So for my 1m/5m/30min @ a factor of x4 would be 1/4/16 and for my 3/15/1hr would be 3/12/48, no one is looking at these. Have you actually tried 3/12/48 for a month or two? I find no problem with using TFs that the masses aren't looking at. You are looking for relationships between multiple TFs for a directional edge, not for correlations with what other people look at.
Yes, way way back. the problem with such 'non-standard' t/f's is that for eg a 12min candle may well look very different after 3 extra minutes to make a 15min. This can be an advantage re an earlier entry or more likely (in my findings way way back) a disadvantage. TA works largely because traders all look basically at the same thing, ie it is to an extent a self-fulfilling activity and this can work in our favour. I agree it is relationships between t/f's that can be part of an edge. but at least do it on t/f's that favours the greater probability of largest amount of the market who act on them, whatever they maybe, acting on them. It makes sense that the more traders or should I say volume that act on any particular signal, the more chance there is of that signal producing a winning outcome.

Quoting DrDave
{quote} Here is the expanding triangle on D1 and then the MN1 view of it. {image}{image}
That's not what I understand to be an expanding triangle. Ideally point 3 should be lower than pt 1, and point 4 higher than point 3 (obviously vice versa if appearing at top of a chart - ie a potential short signal,) with point 5 being a retrace of move 3-4 or an extension of it, (see my dly chart above.) Also, they are generally higher in probability when there are no intervening fractals between the points 1-2-3-4-5, making a 'classic' expanding triangle not the 'general' pattern. Like you say though, if it works for you, keep doing it.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #649,940
  • Jan 28, 2022 7:05am Jan 28, 2022 7:05am
first trade. buy scalp

Stops at BE. its from weak demand
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