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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #649,121
  • Jan 22, 2022 2:36pm Jan 22, 2022 2:36pm
Quoting Nordling00
{quote} For the first time I agree with you. Most of my friends are so excited about cryptos that they think Bitcoin will even replace national currencies etc. Which is impossible. Of course crypto is more efficient when it comes to transferring money, avoiding taxes etc. but it can't replace the local currencies. You can replace them, but it wouldn't be efficient. You would lose all your control over your economy. It would basically mean going back to the times when people used precious metals for exchange. I think crypto is a wonderful inflation...
Are you sure ?

Inflation highest in decades, and btc 50% down, something is not working here

Or is it inflation expectation instead ?

To me BTC is just a big scam, nothing more so far
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #649,122
  • Jan 22, 2022 2:38pm Jan 22, 2022 2:38pm
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} + he talks about SMART MONEY showing charts of Non-commercials Non-commercials are NOT smart money, they are the opposite... But we all learn
Wow.
I also thought that non-commercial is "smart money" , because everyone said so, although I myself did not use COT (idk how to use it)
Air force
  • #649,123
  • Jan 22, 2022 2:48pm Jan 22, 2022 2:48pm
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Are you sure ? Inflation highest in decades, and btc 50% down, something is not working here Or is it inflation expectation instead ? To me BTC is just a big scam, nothing more so far
I am sure. Yeah inflation haven't fallen yet, but like you said it's the expectation. If things don't go as expected though, then we can see some serious corrections.
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  • #649,124
  • Jan 22, 2022 3:14pm Jan 22, 2022 3:14pm
Quoting W0lfram
{quote} Wow. I also thought that non-commercial is "smart money" , because everyone said so, although I myself did not use COT (idk how to use it)
Commercials/producers are smart money, buying dips, selling rallies
Non commercials/hedge funds/AM are dumb money, increasing on rallies, selling more on dips until it goes extreme

But of course, dumb money can be right very often , and smart money very wrong (until they have added sufficiently good amount of contrats to reverse the trend)
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #649,125
  • Jan 22, 2022 3:18pm Jan 22, 2022 3:18pm
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Are you sure ? Inflation highest in decades, and btc 50% down, something is not working here Or is it inflation expectation instead ? To me BTC is just a big scam, nothing more so far
it's supposed to be digital gold ,they don't realise It can still go to 0 if they hodl
it's not acted like an inflation hedge ,no way is inflation falling anytime soon ,the real interest rates are vey negative even if the fed act
the problem here is not bitcoin but all the others ,like tether that supposed to be 1 to $1
they released some detail of finance ,but basically they can and have printed what they want like the fed
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #649,126
  • Jan 22, 2022 3:25pm Jan 22, 2022 3:25pm
Quoting mysterio
{quote} I think its the change in positions thats critical not the absolute number I attached the futures volumes on my last post-- can see that the delta is green and longs are being added at the end of last week Although some of this might be sell stops below the swing lows of 18th/11th. I think passive sellers appear on the ask side on futures vol, someone can correct me on this if i'm wrong. W0lfram is the volume pro maybe he can chime in
Smart money can be wrong too.
They can easily alther orders if price level is missed out.
Would like to see total amount value invested, rather then order numbers then we could compare.

What Delta is telling you?
  • #649,127
  • Jan 22, 2022 3:34pm Jan 22, 2022 3:34pm
Quoting Bones
{quote} it's supposed to be digital gold ,they don't realise It can still go to 0 if they hodl it's not acted like an inflation hedge ,no way is inflation falling anytime soon ,the real interest rates are vey negative even if the fed act the problem here is not bitcoin but all the others ,like tether that supposed to be 1 to $1 they released some detail of finance ,but basically they can and have printed what they want like the fed {image}
There's a contradiction in the parts that i highlighted. Gold is an inflation hedge. So are the cryptos. Because they are the digital golds like you said.
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  • #649,128
  • Jan 22, 2022 3:56pm Jan 22, 2022 3:56pm
Quoting Jolita
{quote} Really? Please dont rush into long. Wait for a break out first, price is still in consolidation box. Also look at candle formation and daily closing candle, possible bearish reversal. I could be wrong. {image} Also look at weekly chart H&S, right shoulder building, possible 35?{image}
BTC has completed its right H&S shoulder.
Chart was givng clear view, no surprice at all.

Investors are moving money to less risky assets. Buy USD and Gold time?

Some other factors -
Early bank interest rate expectation, Kazakhstan situation, explained in this article.

BBC News - Bitcoin prices fall to lowest in months after US Fed remarks
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-59907864

Bought Shiba too early.
  • #649,129
  • Jan 22, 2022 3:58pm Jan 22, 2022 3:58pm
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Commercials/producers are smart money, buying dips, selling rallies Non commercials/hedge funds/AM are dumb money, increasing on rallies, selling more on dips until it goes extreme But of course, dumb money can be right very often , and smart money very wrong (until they have added sufficiently good amount of contrats to reverse the trend)
But when will the number of contracts will be enough to reverse the trend? Is there any specific level?
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  • #649,130
  • Edited 4:16pm Jan 22, 2022 4:00pm | Edited 4:16pm
Sorry for those who lost BTC.
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Liquidation happens when a trader has insufficient funds to keep a leveraged trade open.

  1. The crypto market's high volatility means liquidations are a common occurrence.
  2. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are renowned for being high-risk investments prone to extreme price swings.

  • #649,131
  • Edited 5:00pm Jan 22, 2022 4:02pm | Edited 5:00pm
Quoting mysterio
{quote} I think passive sellers appear on the ask side on futures vol, someone can correct me on this if i'm wrong.
Hi, Mysterio
You are absolutely correct.
Limit orders has a heavier hand mid-long term.
If interested, take a look at the delta on the daily timeframe; for example, last swing from Dec 20th or earlier...
Although, for a sniper-scalper this does not matter
Air force
  • #649,132
  • Jan 22, 2022 4:05pm Jan 22, 2022 4:05pm
Quoting Nordling00
{quote} But when will the number of contracts will be enough to reverse the trend? Is there any specific level?
I look at the contrats compared to the open interest. And yes, there are levels where the probability of reversal is huge

Quoting kuroro001
You want to short CAD ? good luck {image}
Check here, it worked for the past 5 years. Dumb money very short at bottom (above 25%), or dumb money short around 5% on top
Easy money there
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #649,133
  • Edited 4:32pm Jan 22, 2022 4:14pm | Edited 4:32pm
FOMC
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if the price returns to the previous week's value area (hourly close > 1.3577), it will probably go through it.
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Air force
  • #649,134
  • Jan 22, 2022 4:17pm Jan 22, 2022 4:17pm
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} I look at the contrats compared to the open interest. And yes, there are levels where the probability of reversal is huge
How do you compare open interest to contracts, and which levels are they? Can you elaborate on these?
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  • #649,135
  • Edited 4:58pm Jan 22, 2022 4:17pm | Edited 4:58pm
Quoting Nordling00
{quote} There's a contradiction in the parts that i highlighted. Gold is an inflation hedge. So are the cryptos. Because they are the digital golds like you said.
no contradiction cryptos are not ,
theres only one trustworthy coin and thats bitcoin the rest are defiantly a scam
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #649,136
  • Jan 22, 2022 4:18pm Jan 22, 2022 4:18pm
Quoting Jolita
Sorry for those who lost BTC. {image} Liquidation happens when a trader has insufficient funds to keep a leveraged trade open. The crypto market's high volatility means liquidations are a common occurrence. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are renowned for being high-risk investments prone to extreme price swings.
R.I.P

Press F to pay respect.
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  • #649,137
  • Jan 22, 2022 4:21pm Jan 22, 2022 4:21pm
Quoting W0lfram
FOMC{image}
Definitely this time
  • #649,138
  • Jan 22, 2022 4:21pm Jan 22, 2022 4:21pm
Quoting Nordling00
{quote} How do you compare open interest to contracts, and which levels are they? Can you elaborate on these?
Its a ratio, nothing more
You check the amount of contrat compared to the total open interest. Then you get an idea how high/low are traders invested
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #649,139
  • Jan 22, 2022 4:25pm Jan 22, 2022 4:25pm
Quoting Jolita
Sorry for those who lost BTC. {image} Liquidation happens when a trader has insufficient funds to keep a leveraged trade open. The crypto market's high volatility means liquidations are a common occurrence. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are renowned for being high-risk investments prone to extreme price swings.
you need to be 1 to 1 ,no leverage and committed
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #649,140
  • Jan 22, 2022 4:26pm Jan 22, 2022 4:26pm
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Its a ratio, nothing more You check the amount of contrat compared to the total open interest. Then you get an idea how high/low are traders invested
But when do the ratio signals a reverse? Is there a specific ratio, if there is what is it?
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