Nasdaq Futures NQ Trading Diary

Which data/news calendar do you use?

https://newsquawk.com/home

*Message to myself, as this is a journal*

Let's be clear about what is needed. When trading a breakout strategy, we are trying to jump on a smaller time frame trend. To do that we need the momentum to carry us forward after the initial stops get tripped. The Nasdaq is made up of 100 companies. Of these 100, there are 93/94 of them make up 55% of the weighting of the index. Leaving 45% made up of 6/7 companies. Alphabet is broken down into different shares, so Google trades on GOOG and GOOGL. Together these makeup ~6%. AAPL is the biggest by index weight, followed by MSFT and AMZN. FB (meta) & Tesla finish off the handful of companies making 45% of the index.
If this cohort is trapped in a balance zone it means the likes of Blackrock are sitting on their hands not doing much business. They very rarely sell, so the algos manage positions and adjust according to NAV, VWAP, etc. Algo's get turned off just before Tier-1 news events, which is why we don't trade through them. NFP is a Tier-1 news event. From my observations of how the NQ etc. moves during the week, there is a tendency for the range to be managed by the Market Makers ahead of and during speaking events by the Fed. Today is Friday and yesterday the 45% were locked within their Initial Balance range. The other 55% tried to break higher, but eventually got dragged back down. This manifested as a move to the 50% line of the IB.

Don't trade more than twice a day - it leads to overtrading
Don't trade through Tier-1 scheduled news
Don't trade before the Fed have spoken
Don't expect a move if the 45% are within their IB


Today these guys are chatting.


This is what a balanced TPO is built off

Thanks for the info on the composite balance and price action. Unless there is a sudden plummet it appears we are nearing the lows of the day here at 15,400.

no worries, happy to share whatever comes into my head etc.

watching these

Just in case we take out some significant support

What a wild opening, I cut 4 potions but will let these 15,180 level buys run.

False breakout to the downside.
Didn't get sucked in because:
1) The Fed were going to talk
2) APPL, MSFT, AMZN, FB, GOOG, TSLA didn't break out to the downside. The move was the other 55%

I am starting to think you trade in the direction of the FAAMGT, but have conviction when the whole index moves as one.

Yes, watching the NQ100 index as a whole. The FAAMGT will report with good earnings and this will be the market top. The banks will sell like crazy after that. Will turn from buy the dip to sell the rip.
Under the yellow 14 week MA line.

This is the big one today, need to wait for him to finish for sure.


Though these guys will likely screw me over if I'm not careful.

Hit target


Currently a small range, with the potential to one time frame higher


45% popped out the top for direction, 55% were still within the range. Hence why the 150% is the target for now. If they get out to the longside, will be watching to see if we get the measured move.

Perhaps we get to 16,000 as the banks flush out all the shorts on the scorching CPI report tomorrow. Then they will sell post FAANG earnings.

This is likely to scupper me if I jump in now



Also would be good to see all 100 stocks going higher

Morning Prep.
It's been a busy start to 2022 outside of trading, so I am just getting back into the old routine.
Fingers crossed can keep these coming Wed-Fri each week.

Navigating through the Fed's talk just got a bit easier

Slightly more in-depth recap of what I did and why

Great, as always. Thank you!

no worries, I like reading what you are doing and the more we can crack the code, the better the world will be, for everyone!

Yesterday the FAANG+ did sell off. 14,500 is approaching.