Which data/news calendar do you use?
*Message to myself, as this is a journal*
Let's be clear about what is needed. When trading a breakout strategy, we are trying to jump on a smaller time frame trend. To do that we need the momentum to carry us forward after the initial stops get tripped. The Nasdaq is made up of 100 companies. Of these 100, there are 93/94 of them make up 55% of the weighting of the index. Leaving 45% made up of 6/7 companies. Alphabet is broken down into different shares, so Google trades on GOOG and GOOGL. Together these makeup ~6%. AAPL is the biggest by index weight, followed by MSFT and AMZN. FB (meta) & Tesla finish off the handful of companies making 45% of the index.
If this cohort is trapped in a balance zone it means the likes of Blackrock are sitting on their hands not doing much business. They very rarely sell, so the algos manage positions and adjust according to NAV, VWAP, etc. Algo's get turned off just before Tier-1 news events, which is why we don't trade through them. NFP is a Tier-1 news event. From my observations of how the NQ etc. moves during the week, there is a tendency for the range to be managed by the Market Makers ahead of and during speaking events by the Fed. Today is Friday and yesterday the 45% were locked within their Initial Balance range. The other 55% tried to break higher, but eventually got dragged back down. This manifested as a move to the 50% line of the IB.
Don't trade more than twice a day - it leads to overtrading
Don't trade through Tier-1 scheduled news
Don't trade before the Fed have spoken
Don't expect a move if the 45% are within their IB
Today these guys are chatting.
This is what a balanced TPO is built off
Let's be clear about what is needed. When trading a breakout strategy, we are trying to jump on a smaller time frame trend. To do that we need the momentum to carry us forward after the initial stops get tripped. The Nasdaq is made up of 100 companies. Of these 100, there are 93/94 of them make up 55% of the weighting of the index. Leaving 45% made up of 6/7 companies. Alphabet is broken down into different shares, so Google trades on GOOG and GOOGL. Together these makeup ~6%. AAPL is the biggest by index weight, followed by MSFT and AMZN. FB (meta) & Tesla finish off the handful of companies making 45% of the index.
If this cohort is trapped in a balance zone it means the likes of Blackrock are sitting on their hands not doing much business. They very rarely sell, so the algos manage positions and adjust according to NAV, VWAP, etc. Algo's get turned off just before Tier-1 news events, which is why we don't trade through them. NFP is a Tier-1 news event. From my observations of how the NQ etc. moves during the week, there is a tendency for the range to be managed by the Market Makers ahead of and during speaking events by the Fed. Today is Friday and yesterday the 45% were locked within their Initial Balance range. The other 55% tried to break higher, but eventually got dragged back down. This manifested as a move to the 50% line of the IB.
Don't trade more than twice a day - it leads to overtrading
Don't trade through Tier-1 scheduled news
Don't trade before the Fed have spoken
Don't expect a move if the 45% are within their IB
Today these guys are chatting.
This is what a balanced TPO is built off
False breakout to the downside.
Didn't get sucked in because:
1) The Fed were going to talk
2) APPL, MSFT, AMZN, FB, GOOG, TSLA didn't break out to the downside. The move was the other 55%
I am starting to think you trade in the direction of the FAAMGT, but have conviction when the whole index moves as one.
- Joined Dec 2013 | Status: Member | 1,346 Posts
Yes, watching the NQ100 index as a whole. The FAAMGT will report with good earnings and this will be the market top. The banks will sell like crazy after that. Will turn from buy the dip to sell the rip. 
Under the yellow 14 week MA line.
Under the yellow 14 week MA line.
Be humble or be humbled.
