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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #631,241
  • Oct 15, 2021 5:18am Oct 15, 2021 5:18am
Quoting Georginson
{quote} Thanks for the feedback mate. : - you are right about the double tops so far this year, now this same double top is similar to the double top of year 2018 (1.43) before crash to 1.24 in December that same year 2018. : - as for the October 2016 flash crash low of (1.14) it did connect to 1.43 double top of 1.43 in year 2018, just as Covid/Pandemic inspired low of (1.14) year 2020 also connects to the double top of 1.42 this year 2021 so far. : - As for the previous 10 years, the lowest yearly range of GBPUSD is 1100 pips, which only happened...

Thanks for sharing those stats and explanations. Yes, from the point of view of the minimum yearly range over the last 10 years being completed this year, getting below 3411 (current yrly lo) to complete it looks easier than getting above 1.4249 (current yrly hi) given where price is right now, and ergo likely makes it more probable, per that range analysis. I completely agree re all analysis being inherently imperfect, including my own. I guess all I am saying is that 'within' that over-riding range analysis, PA (which is what is actually happening) up to the dly t/f is currently not pointing to a downside break of 3411 to complete the min 10 year average range.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #631,242
  • Oct 15, 2021 5:19am Oct 15, 2021 5:19am
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} Where do she want to off load this massive buy order? Too many seller now. May creah the pricw Need to find buyer that willing to buy at higher price {image}

GU

consolidation / accumulation. Where has MM been building a position? These are reference points for breakout traders.

We have passed consolidation periods. With this it do form more uniform price structures that can act like an early warning sign that a violent breakout is about to occur. How far this consolidation BO will go?
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  • #631,243
  • Oct 15, 2021 5:19am Oct 15, 2021 5:19am
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  • #631,244
  • Oct 15, 2021 5:23am Oct 15, 2021 5:23am
Quoting gatenio
{quote} i think it ok now. im in too.. 1782.6 for 75p. If price will drop more i will add at 1777
H4, 1770 still possible for RBS on Monthly Pivot, if continue north 1825 waiting there for potential bearish deep crab
Daddy, Brother, Lover, Little Boy
  • #631,245
  • Oct 15, 2021 5:29am Oct 15, 2021 5:29am
We have in mini range 1.37350 - 137150 till its broken more high perhaps. Since price ranging on the top of key level that need to break (BMS)

Edited : if hourly candle close as bull. Seem i must follow it first or else get stomped
"Buy Cheap and Sell Expensive , Its Market Anyways where People Get profit"
  • #631,246
  • Oct 15, 2021 5:31am Oct 15, 2021 5:31am
...another way of looking at this is that for the 10year minimum range (1100 pips per George's stats,) to be completed by this y/e with a downside move below the current 3411 yrly lo, it requires a 581 pips move to the downside in 2.5mths or less. I wonder what the probability of this is over any given 'representative' period?

As for the 1400-1650pips most repeated yrly ranges (again per George's stats) over the last 10years, you gotta add another minimum 300 to that, making it 881.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #631,247
  • Oct 15, 2021 5:34am Oct 15, 2021 5:34am
Quoting Headland
...another way of looking at this is that for the 10year minimum range (1100 pips per George's stats,) to be completed by this y/e with a downside move below the current 3411 yrly lo, it requires a 581 pips move to the downside in 2.5mths or less. I wonder what the probability of this is over any given 'representative' period?
The Average range of each month is 420 pips, while average two months range is 650 pips...

Also noteworthy that minimum August to December range in the last 10 years is 820 pips...

August to October high so far is 1.3957
August to October low so far is 1.3411

Current Range = 546 pips.

Which means at least 274 more pips to break either 1.3957 or 1.3411.

1.3957 minus 820 pips = 1.3137
1.3411 plus 820 pips = 1.4231.

Either of these levels is expected by or before this end of 2021.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #631,248
  • Oct 15, 2021 5:39am Oct 15, 2021 5:39am
What a boredom.
very nice bearish divergence developing on 4h.
  • #631,249
  • Oct 15, 2021 5:44am Oct 15, 2021 5:44am
That is some nice market profile template! What history window are you using for volume representation on right?

I am using this basic template, on the right 20 trading days volume and also daily boxes for each day. I find the 20 day one OK indication for potential consolidation areas, forming S/R levels. On trending market, volume profile levels don't help much, I think.

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Quoting W0lfram
at the moment delta is -9000, but w/ intraday hidden bullish divergence If > 1.369 tomorrow, 1.3712 - 1.3721 area of interest for me, high volume there also. Anyway mainly looking for sell entries tomorrow{image}
  • #631,250
  • Oct 15, 2021 5:45am Oct 15, 2021 5:45am
Quoting gatenio
What a boredom. very nice bearish divergence developing on 4h.
Bullsome xD
"Buy Cheap and Sell Expensive , Its Market Anyways where People Get profit"
  • #631,251
  • Oct 15, 2021 5:46am Oct 15, 2021 5:46am
Quoting Jolita
{quote} We just paused on weekly and monthly R1. Hope will retest Pivot and fall to weekly support which is just under 1.3560. Next weekly R2 1.3820 Next monthly R2 1.4075
You’ve joined the club with all the sneaky dislikes, congrats and welcome! I think you’ve nailed it in terms of GU longer term S/R. The Square of 9 shows the same logic as you’ve explained it. IMO GU likes to move in increments of 30 degrees – equal to about 130 pips or 15 degrees – equal to about 65-70 pips. If you go back to your charts, you’ll notice that very often the breaks or S/R levels coincide with this count. On average the swings are around 60 degrees (around 260 pips) and then she goes in the opposite direction for about 30 degrees. This is her ‘’vibration’’.
90 degrees from the circle on SQ 9 is very, very strong ‘’natural’’ resistance point.
In terms of the current GU swing from 1.3411, we have already moved around 75 degrees north, which is a resistance point as well (5 x 15 degrees). Yes, you could say that every 15 degrees (around 65 pips) on average, is a potential S/R level starting the count from the right point – high or low. In terms of SQ9’s explanation, yesterday’s and current resistance at around 1.372x is related to the coincidence of the ‘’natural’’ SQ9 angle of 45 degrees at 1.3690 plus the fact that 1.372x is situated on around the 75th degree (5 x 15) from 1.3411 in upward direction. So, I believe that what SQ9 shows and what Pat’s analysis (great insight btw!!) shows, leads to a very similar conclusion, but from a different perspective – top around the 90th degree on SQ9 (1.378x – 1.380x) and then time for a reversal. In terms of the move going back down, you could use the same logic and see where that leads you in terms of S/R (every 15 degrees) and a potential turning point (look for that at around 60th degree or around 90th degree). If she tops out around 1.380x I’d expect to see 1.345x (max. length 90 degree move from 1.380x) as a potential target, with a slow down around 1.3510, which is a ‘’natural’’ 90 degree point on SQ9 and then retrace about 30 degrees. Timing the movements is an art, which I would not even think to go into at this stage. Time will tell. Just my Friday gobbledy gook attempt to find logic in GU’s moves.
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Did you place your stop loss order? Why not?!? Story of my life...
  • #631,252
  • Oct 15, 2021 5:48am Oct 15, 2021 5:48am
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} GU consolidation / accumulation. Where has MM been building a position? These are reference points for breakout traders. We have passed consolidation periods. With this it do form more uniform price structures that can act like an early warning sign that a violent breakout is about to occur. How far this consolidation BO will go? {image}

GU

Offload some long position out before the Red news
1.3750
May see one spike to take out Buy stop order as liquidity grab during the news 1.3800
.
May see potential. Scalp short after the spike

Brace for the news impact

Trade safe and trade well
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Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #631,253
  • Oct 15, 2021 5:50am Oct 15, 2021 5:50am
Quoting coyoteuglyxxx
{quote} You’ve joined the club with all the sneaky dislikes, congrats and welcome! I think you’ve nailed it in terms of GU longer term S/R. The Square of 9 shows the same logic as you’ve explained it. IMO GU likes to move in increments of 30 degrees – equal to about 130 pips or 15 degrees – equal to about 65-70 pips. If you go back to your charts, you’ll notice that very often the breaks or S/R levels coincide with this count. On average the swings are around 60 degrees (around 260 pips) and then she goes in the opposite direction for about 30 degrees....
dislike is a condition to be a member of this thread, no worries it's the admin's signature
Daddy, Brother, Lover, Little Boy
  • #631,254
  • Oct 15, 2021 5:55am Oct 15, 2021 5:55am
Out ..now just wait for retail sales
  • #631,255
  • Oct 15, 2021 5:55am Oct 15, 2021 5:55am
...into the 4hr part of this prev 4hr/dly sw hi zone to 3751 =prev res = pot res, this coexistent with the prev 4hr/dly sw lo zone to 3766 = prev supp = pot sbr.

3830 is the 50% of current yrly hi-lo 4249-3411.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #631,256
  • Oct 15, 2021 5:58am Oct 15, 2021 5:58am
H1/H4 Spotted. Will slowly follow the flow. Wont missed it
"Buy Cheap and Sell Expensive , Its Market Anyways where People Get profit"
  • #631,257
  • Oct 15, 2021 5:58am Oct 15, 2021 5:58am
Sell one more 1.37440
  • #631,258
  • Oct 15, 2021 5:59am Oct 15, 2021 5:59am
Quoting Ihlas
Sell one more 1.37440
1.3753x
  • #631,259
  • Oct 15, 2021 6:00am Oct 15, 2021 6:00am
Quoting phd893
{quote} 1.3753x
Round number more effective
"Buy Cheap and Sell Expensive , Its Market Anyways where People Get profit"
  • #631,260
  • Oct 15, 2021 6:00am Oct 15, 2021 6:00am
Quoting coyoteuglyxxx
{quote} You’ve joined the club with all the sneaky dislikes, congrats and welcome! I think you’ve nailed it in terms of GU longer term S/R. The Square of 9 shows the same logic as you’ve explained it. IMO GU likes to move in increments of 30 degrees – equal to about 130 pips or 15 degrees – equal to about 65-70 pips. If you go back to your charts, you’ll notice that very often the breaks or S/R levels coincide with this count. On average the swings are around 60 degrees (around 260 pips) and then she goes in the opposite direction for about 30 degrees....
Last night ive sometime looking went to detail of Square 9. It is precisely as what ive put on.

Nice work, but i need more exampke from this to incorparate into my analysis

Thanks for sharing this as ive tried to study it in the past, but dissappointent with the progress.

Now youve put forward fresher view on this and look forward for many more.
.
Sincerely

PAT
I come from the future.
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