Weekly Top-Down Technical Analyses

Thanks mate for your kind sentiment.

Stay safe, trade safe.

KP

Quoting pipbasket

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{quote} Thank you KP for coming back every sunday night and giving us your wise analysis, it really does help us new traders get a grasp on the week ahead, and keep up the good work

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i've not forgotten about posting a analysis on here at some point KP, will post one when i have some more experience

Very much welcome. Always remember that you get better with posting and sharing your analysis, and by getting useful feedback from well-meaning FF members with goodwill.

KP

Quoting pipbasket

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i've not forgotten about posting a analysis on here at some point KP, will post one when i have some more experience

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XAUUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The XAUUSD market is sideways. On the monthly time frame, the bullish candlestick printed in May was mitigated by a bearish print in June. The 1745.80/1918.90 zone (purple) is the prevailing trading range on the monthly time frame, and the interim market operation in July is very much at the lower part of the range.

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The XAUUSD market operation on the weekly time frame is under intense bearish pressure. A relatively big bearish candlestick printed four weeks ago is presently acting as a ‘master’ candlestick to the three relatively small bullish candlesticks printed in the last three weeks. In fact, the bullish candlestick printed last week failed to go beyond the mid-point of the ‘master’ candlestick, i.e., the relatively big bearish candlestick printed four weeks ago. By looking left, we can see that market operation had broken down an internal structure around 1766.20 (green) and then retraced northward. It was after a 78.6 Fib retracement that market operation made a southward swing that produced the bearish ‘master’ candlestick. Presently, we are seeing another retracement, which will likely give way to a southward continuation.

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The technical impulse and order flow context on the daily time frame favour bears, but, presently, price action is in a sideways mode after a bullish retracement. Any further bullish move may be a retracement to an area of value before a bearish turnaround. Such an area of value is the 1827.50 area (blue).

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

USDCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

The USDCAD market is generally bearish, but it is in a sideways operating mode. On the monthly time frame, the bearish candlestick printed in May entered a multi-year horizontal support at the 1.20750/1.19330 zone (green). However, there was no bearish follow-up in June as bulls rejected the zone for a northward retracement. The interim market operation in July is sideways but with a bullish tinge.

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Market operation on the weekly time frame is in a sideways mode. Five weeks ago, it made a bullish breakout from a four-week consolidation at the 1.20750 area (green), the upper boundary of a multi-year horizontal support zone seen on the monthly time frame. Last week, it made a bullish breakout from an area of consolidation that had been in place for two weeks and entered a supply/resistance at the 1.24780/1.26130 zone (red) before snapping back below it. Any further bullish move will likely see a challenge at the 1.27480 horizontal barrier (purple). Technically, as the market structure still favours bears, any bullish move is likely to be corrective in nature and would give way to a southward turnaround.

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On the daily time frame, the technical structure is still bearish despite recent strong bullish retracement and a northward surge to breach it. Four of the past five days were bullish, but there was a relatively strong bearish pushback on Friday as price action tackled the horizontal resistance at the 1.24780/1.26130 zone (red). This may incentivize bears to push for a southward continuation at least to the 1.23260/1.22690 horizontal support area (green). Nevertheless, given the ‘wicky’ tops above the 1.24780/1.26130 zone (red), any bearish misstep may incentivize bulls for a northward market engineering to grab liquidity.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The GBPUSD is in a sideways operating mode. On the monthly time frame, market operation has been consolidating for six months in the 1.42040/1.36910 zone (purple). The interim July market operation is around the lower part of the zone and has a bullish tinge.

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On the weekly time frame, GBPUSD market operation went into a sideways mode three weeks ago after a strong bearish impulsive drop from the 1.42040 horizontal resistance area. Although last week’s candlestick was bullish, there was no northward breakout from the consolidation area. Technically, market operation is more bearish than bullish. The 1.36910 area is the immediate horizontal support.

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Technical impulse and order flow on the daily time frame favour bears more than bulls. However, presently, price action is in a bullish mode – somewhat a northward corrective mode or pullback. We will likely see a southward turnaround after a northward pullback to an area of value. Such an area of value is the technical barrier at the 1.39460/1.40060 area (magenta).

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The EURUSD is sideways, but the operating mode is impulsively more bearish than bullish. On the monthly time frame, a bullish candlestick printed in May took market operation to the horizontal resistance around 1.22720 (purple) but a relatively bigger bearish candlestick was printed in June that mitigated the move and broke far below the low of the May bullish print. Technically, this shows that EURUSD market operation is impulsively more bearish than bullish. The interim market operation in July is ambivalent and presently located around the low of the June bearish candlestick.



The EURUSD market operation on the weekly time frame is impulsively bearish, but, presently, in a sideways mode. A bearish follow-through will likely see market operation initially target the 1.16940/1.16070 horizontal support zone (green).



Price action on the daily time frame is in a bullish retracement under a bearish market environment. Thus, we will likely see a bearish turnaround after a bullish pullback to an area of value, such as the 1.19530/1.19840 technical barrier area (magenta). So, what the market does in the early part of this week is significant for directional momentum. I am more bearish the EURUSD than bullish, but I will wait for a bullish pullback to an area of value before looking for a southward trading opportunity.



I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

XAUUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The XAUUSD market is under a bearish pressure. On the monthly time frame, the bearish print of June is an outside bar to the bullish print of May. Meanwhile, the interim market operation in July is at the lower part of June’s bearish print. Nevertheless, market operation is consolidating at a supply or resistance zone on the monthly time frame.

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On the weekly time frame, market operation rejected the 1871.30/1898.10 supply/horizontal resistance zone (red) after retesting it eight weeks ago. The candlestick printed five weeks ago offered a strong bearish continuation and put the XAUUSD market under a strong bearish pressure. Although, presently, market operation is in a bullish mode, the candlesticks printed in the last four weeks are relatively small. This indicates that bears are more influential in the market than bulls.

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On the daily time frame, on Thursday, price action completed a 50/61.8 Fib retracement of the 1902.90/1750.50 downward swing. Presently, it is in a bearish mode because of the bearish candlestick printed on Friday. Technically, we can expect further bearish move.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

USDCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

Technically, the USDCAD market is under a bearish pressure. On the monthly time frame, market operation is far below the 1.30300/1.33485 zone (red), which is the prevailing supply/horizontal resistance zone. Meanwhile, there is a corrective bullish operating mode as, in June, a bullish engulfing candlestick pulled away from the 1.20310 multi-year horizontal support zone (green), and the interim market operation has moved 150 pips above the June high.

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Market operation on the weekly timeframe is still bearish despite being presently in a bullish corrective mode. Technically, we can expect a bearish turnaround after a northward pullback to an area of value.

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Price action on the daily time frame is bullish and it is tackling the 1.26010/1.27370 horizontal resistance zone (magenta). The bullish mode is technically a corrective phase in a technically bearish market. We can expect a bearish turnaround after an exhaustion of the bullish pullback.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The GBPUSD market is in a sideways mode. On the monthly time frame, market operation is presently within the 1.37100/1.42610 zone (red). The bullish candlestick printed in May was mitigated by a bearish candlestick of equivalent size in June. Meanwhile, the interim July market operation is at the lower part of the zone and has a bearish tinge.

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Market operation on the weekly time frame is under increased bearish pressure. However, after the strong bearish impulsive move of five weeks ago, market operation went into a corrective sideways mode as it tackles the 1.37100 horizontal support area. A bearish breakdown of the area may see a southward drive towards the next major horizontal support at the 1.33920 area (green). Should there be a bearish misstep, we may see a bullish pullback to an area of value such as the 1.40000 horizontal resistance area (magenta).

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On the daily time frame, price action has broken down a rising channel (blue) within which it has been operating for quite a while. However, there was little bearish follow-through as price action pulled back three days after the break of the rising channel. Presently, price action is in a sideways mode as it tackles the 1.37100 horizontal support area. We may see further sideways, or a northward pullback, of price action in the early part of this week but the 1.40000 area (magenta) is the immediate horizontal resistance. Should bears break down the 1.37100 area, we may see a southward drive towards 1.33920 (green), which is the next major horizontal support.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The EURUSD market is sideways, but the market operating mode is bearish. On the monthly time frame, the bullish candlestick of May took market operation to the 1.22610 horizontal resistance area (red) before a bearish turnaround from the area in June, and the bearish print in June broke the low of the May bullish candlestick. Meanwhile, the interim market operation in July is sideways but with a bearish tinge. The 1.17050 area (green) is the prevailing horizontal support on the monthly time frame.

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Market operation on the weekly time frame is under a bearish technical impulse. After four weeks of sideway market operation below the 1.22610 horizontal resistance area (red), seven weeks ago, bears broke down the consolidation and, a week later, followed through with a relatively strong bearish impulsive move.
Although a 3-week period of consolidation followed the bearish impulsive move, last week produced a bearish candlestick that signaled the intention of bears to restore market influence. Further strong bearish drive would readily hit the 1.17050 horizontal support area (green), which is about 100 pips away. Should there be a bearish failure, we may see further sideways of price action, or even a northward pullback, before a bearish continuation. Such a bearish continuation may see the completion of an ‘M’ pattern around the 1.16300 handle (purple).

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Price action on the daily time frame is bearish but presently in consolidation within a falling wedge (blue). Meanwhile, on Thursday and Friday, price action printed two bearish candlesticks from the wedge resistance trendline. A bearish breakdown of the wedge support trendline would result in a southward directional impulse initially targeting the next horizontal support at the 1.17050 area (green). However, any bearish misstep would incentivize bulls for, perhaps, a retest of the wedge resistance trendline or a market engineering for liquidity grab above it before any southward turnaround.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

keen pips -

"northward pullback to an area of value." is 1.2770 value enough?? That puts it well over the daily BB upper level.

I want to see a bullish exhaustion at D1 tf supply zone or an area of inefficient price action on a daily closing basis. As I do not trade on Mondays, I will like to see what happens to USDCAD upon today's close.

Trade safe.

KP

The 1.26010/1.27370 area (magenta) is the area I was expecting to see bullish exhaustion. At any rate, I trade based on what the market does. I usually wait for confirmation before looking for a trading opportunity.

Stay safe, trade safe.

KP

Quoting shotshell

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keen pips - "northward pullback to an area of value." is 1.2770 value enough?? That puts it well over the daily BB upper level. {image}

Ignored

If you study price as a bidirectional water circuit, now the monthy chart gives you an idea of where is price moving this summer. The water is now running down through the black pipe towards the 1.35 level.


The lower wicks are like ropes that descend into the water well that someone used to pull water from. The bodies resemble the old water levels.

I like to see what happens with the bucket when it reaches these interest levels. I just sit and watch. And then, in any case I may or may not react.

Up or down the old ropes, what will happen in the future while price is dropping?

When price respects only resistance areas you do not need any other indicator to understand that the main momentum is negative so far.

A good post, mate. I love your symbolisms: 'water circuit', 'water levels', 'water', 'ropes' and 'buckets'. Try to post more often on FF and share your knowledge and experience with fellow members. Never mind if some members are nitpickers but a good number of them will appreciate your contribution.

Stay safe, trade safe, and prosper.

KP

Quoting scherzi

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If you study price as a bidirectional water circuit, now the monthy chart gives you an idea of where is price moving this summer. The water is now running down through the black pipe towards the 1.35 level. {image} The lower wicks are like ropes that descend into the water well that someone used to pull water from. The bodies resemble the old water levels. I like to see what happens with the bucket when it reaches these interest levels. I just sit and watch. And then, in any case I may or may not react. {image} Up or down the old ropes, what will...

Ignored

Thank you pal. I use these terms to avoid annoying people asking me:

"How do you konw this?"
"How do you know this is that?"
"My dictionary says this word means that and you said it... (but I have no f*** idea about trading, only a dictionary)"

...since patience and comprehensiveness are not among my personal traits.

I just like leaving small comments to motivate others to study and practice hard, because I believe that trading cannot be passively learnt just by "clicking the FAQ button" and asking others. Maybe others find super simple and easy trading while I do not. I also belive that discretionary trading is subjective and cannot be generalized but adopted individually.

Sorry for the explanation but I always end up doing it, because my posts are full of relativeness to induce extensive personal research.

What counted was that your analysis matched the charts you showed. It is often good to promise less and let the results speak for themselves, and so what matters more is how valuable your posts turn out to be.

KP

This week has not gone beyond or to an old low, but it is bouncing over a buyside support area. I thought the week was going to be more negative, but that is unimportant.


Could it be filling the gaps in the black pipes below? And the retracement this week, there is also a gap of prices above down the last white candle?.
Now if the bucket is being filled for customers, then it would be overflowing mostly at around 1.38 from the daily perspective. Besides, there is a previous low swing that caused a drastic buyside reaction on July 8th. And maybe and due to the velocity, sellers could have been waiting since then, not being filled neither when price came back fast last week.


Now, the three weekly potential sellside resistance areas seem to be above the equillibrium level on this H1 chart, above the 50%, as prices start to become high and the asset expensive within that time period. Maybe that could be a good reason to prepare another drop.


But on H1, nothing is stopping price, apparently and for now from increasing the asset's value so far. Therefore, Chances are high that today's opening net position remains long and price reaches higher levels.


The last traded candles at that area on M5 seem noisy and lacking an unequivocal structure for me, I am not able to determine optimal entry areas so far, maybe for a intra-week reversal. So it is time to sit on my hands and wait to see the wolf is at my door.

Euro markets open in 15 minutes. Be prepared.

Euro-USD should show a high correlation with GBPUSD and I would love seeing this happening today, a fake positive breakout and later drop, but unfortunately prices normally does not do what one wishes most of the time.



I missed a big long yesterday because I was biased looking for shorts. Let's see what happens today.

USDJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

The USDJPY market is technically bullish but operating in a sideways mode. On the monthly time frame, market operation made a northward impulsive move that broke above the previous horizontal resistance around 109.00, an area that has since been turned to a horizontal support. Meanwhile, the 109.00/111.60 zone (purple) is the operating channel for a sideways mode since April. The interim market operation in July surged to the 109.00 lower boundary before being pushed back by bulls. The 114.40 area (red) is a major horizontal resistance on the monthly time frame.

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Market operation on the weekly time frame is presently in a bullish mode after a southward pullback. We can expect market operation to be more bullish than bearish as it attempts a retest of the upper boundary of the 109.00/111.60 channel (purple), from where a bearish swing started four weeks ago. The long tail on last week’s relatively big bullish candlestick portends a strong rejection of the 109.00 horizontal support area.

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Price action on the daily time frame is on a bullish impulsive mode having broken above a recent area of consolidation that held for two days. The technical pattern tends to indicate a move for the completion of a ‘W’ pattern around the 111.60 area.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP