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Weekly Top-Down Technical Analyses

  • #1,241
  • May 16, 2021 3:16pm May 16, 2021 3:16pm
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The EURUSD technical market structure is bullish although we are having an increase in bearish pressure. On the weekly time frame, the 1.16010 to 1.23490 northward swing completed an 88.6 Fib retracement seven weeks ago in confluence with an outer rising trendline (red) traceable to April 2020. Presently, market operation is respecting an inner rising trendline (blue) from recent lows. Tow weeks ago, market operation made a bullish breakout from an area of consolidation that was in place for two weeks. However, there was no bullish follow-through last week as market operation printed a long-tailed doji-like candlestick with a bearish tinge that failed to break above the bullish candlestick of two weeks ago. This indicates that bulls are not fully in control of the market. Nevertheless, we cannot discount a bullish move in the early part of this week, perhaps to test the 1.22340/1.23245 area (red), which is the immediate significant horizontal resistance zone.

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On the daily time frame, price action is bullish within a rising channel (blue) aligned with an inner rising trendline seen on the weekly time frame. However, it is presently tackling the consolidation at the 1.20600/1.21670 zone (purple) after a bullish move from the channel support trendline on Friday. Any bullish follow-through in the early part of this week may expose the 1.22340 handle, the lower boundary of the significant 1.22340/1.23245 horizontal resistance zone (red) seen on the weekly time frame. A bullish failure may incentivize a drive for a bearish rejection that may initially retest the 1.20600 lower-boundary of the 1.20600/1.21670 consolidation zone (purple)

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On the H4 time frame, the technical market structure still favours bulls. However, price action is getting near to 1.21670, the upper boundary of a consolidation area seen on the weekly time frame. The area is susceptible to a bearish rejection. Technically, the order flow context offers an opportunity for a bullish move to grab liquidity before a bearish rotation.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,242
  • May 16, 2021 3:35pm May 16, 2021 3:35pm
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The GBPUSD technical market structure is bullish but market operation is presently in a horizontal channel. On the monthly time frame, the 1.36720/1.42420 zone (purple) is the prevailing horizontal channel for market operation. The interim May market operation is bullish within the zone and is about 150 pips from its upper boundary.

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GBPUSD market operation is still respecting a rising channel (red) from June 2020. Presently, a bullish market operation is being maintained in the channel after a northward breakout from an area of consolidation two weeks ago. Market operation is about 150 pips from the 1.42420 area, a significant horizontal resistance area which may be a barrier to any attempt for sustained bullish momentum.

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On the daily time frame, price action is still bullish. But presently it is tackling an area of consolidation which has been in place since May 10. Technically, we may see further bullish move in the early part of this week but there is increased bearish pressure as price action makes a further attempt to retest the significant 1.42420 horizontal resistance area, an area it last visited on February 24 before a strong bearish drop. It will take a significant break above the area for any bullish momentum to be sustained. Any bullish failure may incentivize bears for a southward rotation.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDDaily_May 16, 2021.png Size: 47 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,243
  • May 22, 2021 2:50pm May 22, 2021 2:50pm
The USDCAD is still bearish. However, there is an increased bullish pressure as market operation navigates a multi-year low. I will post technical details on this and three other pairs before the market opens.

Stay safe.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,244
  • May 23, 2021 2:39pm May 23, 2021 2:39pm
USDCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

Technically, the USDCAD market structure is still bearish. However, the bearish momentum is declining as the market navigates a multi-year low. On the monthly time frame, the last two months have seen the printing of bearish continuation candlesticks. The interim May print is bearish and, presently, market operation is at the 1.20540 area, which is a multi-year low created in September 2017. However, this is part of the 1.20540/1.19000 significant horizontal support zone (green).

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On the weekly time frame, the last two weeks have seen the printing of two relatively miniature candlesticks. Nevertheless, technically, bears still have the potential to push for the lower part of the 1.20540/1.19000 significant horizontal support zone (green).

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Price action on the daily time frame is in a sideways mode but the technical market structure is still bearish. Thus, any bullish price action in the early part of this week is likely to be corrective or temporary in nature. We are likely to see further bearish move after any such correction.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,245
  • May 23, 2021 3:05pm May 23, 2021 3:05pm
EURJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

Technically, the EURJPY is still bullish. However, there is an increase in bearish pressure. On the monthly time frame, bulls have been making steady northward push, but the 135.10/137.40 zone (red) is a major horizontal resistance; it was from there market operation made a southward turnaround in February 2018.

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Market operation on the weekly timeframe is respecting a rising trendline (red). It is still technically bullish but experiencing an increase in bearish pressure. Last week, market operation printed an indecision candlestick in contrast to two relatively big bullish continuation candlesticks printed in the previous two weeks. If bulls regain their influence in the market, we may see further northward push in the early part of this week; otherwise, we may have either a sideways or bearish mode of market operation.

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Price action on the daily time frame is in a rising channel (blue) after moving above an outer rising trendline (red) seen on the weekly time frame. However, the order flow is mixed. Last Wednesday, price action printed a doji-like candlestick with a bearish tinge at the channel resistance trendline, resulting in a sideways of price action. This indicates an increase in bearish pressure. Should bears maintain the pressure, we may see a southward pullback, perhaps to retest the channel support trendline, in the early part of this week.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,246
  • Edited 3:36pm May 23, 2021 3:25pm | Edited 3:36pm
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

Technically, the EURUSD market structure is still bullish but diminishing in momentum. On the monthly time frame, the interim market operation in May is in a bullish mode after breaking out of the consolidation that was in place between March and April. Although the market operation is experiencing a decline in bullish momentum, there is still room for bullish surge for liquidity grab. The 1.24270 area (red) is the next horizontal resistance.

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Market operation on the weekly time frame is in a rising channel (red). The bullish market structure has witnessed a 38.2 Fib retracement of the major channel swing from 1.07980 to 1.23490 to respect the channel support trendline and has been on a northward mode in the last seven weeks. However, the candlesticks printed in the last two weeks have been relatively small and presently market operation is sideways. Although this, technically, indicates a slow-down in bullish momentum, the market structure still favours bulls.

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Price action on the daily time frame is in an inner rising channel (blue) within a larger rising channel (red) seen on the weekly time frame. Presently, price action is sideways. The fact that this sideways came just after another sideways of price action a few days back indicates a weakness in bullish momentum. The 1.22940/1.23415 area (magenta) is the next significant horizontal resistance on the daily time frame. Personally, I will await price action to provide directional clarity in the early part of this week.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,247
  • May 23, 2021 3:49pm May 23, 2021 3:49pm
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The GBPUSD market structure is still technically bullish but there is increased bearish pressure. On the monthly time frame, market operation moved above an area of consolidation in April for a bullish mode in May. The interim market operation in May inched to the high of the February candlestick before experiencing a bearish pullback. The immediate horizontal resistance is around the 1.43560 area (red).

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Technically, GBPUSD market operation on the weekly time frame is bullish. Market operation is respecting a rising trendline (red) traceable to June 2020 and the candlesticks printed recently favour a bullish continuation. The order flow context, with ‘wicky tops’ above the present location of market operation, may incentivize liquidity grab by bulls.

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Price action on the daily time frame is presently above an inner rising trendline (blue) from lows traceable to November 2, 2020, having moved away from an outer rising trendline (red) seen on the weekly time frame. Meanwhile, price action is sideways, producing ‘wicky’ tops as it tackles a minor horizontal resistance around the 1.42410 area (magenta). Should bulls maintain a strong influence in the market, we may see further northward push, but any bullish misstep may incentivize bears for a southward pullback.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDDaily_May 23, 2021.png Size: 47 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,248
  • May 29, 2021 12:59am May 29, 2021 12:59am
Good to see you still going strong KP.... I'm back....
Never Ever Give Up
  • #1,249
  • May 29, 2021 3:00pm May 29, 2021 3:00pm
It's been quite a while mate. Do stay safe and trade safe.

KP

Quoting sumar
Good to see you still going strong KP.... I'm back....
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,250
  • May 30, 2021 3:33pm May 30, 2021 3:33pm
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The GBPUSD market is still technically bullish. However, on the monthly time frame. Market operation is presently navigating a multi-year horizontal resistance zone spanned by 1.42220 /1.43750 (red). This is another retest of the area after a bullish surge to the area in February 2021.

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On the weekly time frame, the order flow context shows bullish continuation candlesticks. However, the recent candlesticks printed in the last two weeks have been relatively small and ‘wicky’ as the market operation enters a the 1.42220 /1.43750 multi-year horizontal resistance (red), indicting a decline in bullish momentum. A technical rising line (red) traceable to late-June 2020 is still in place, and it is supportive of the bullish market structure.

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On the daily time frame, although the technical market structure is still bullish, the market operation is in a sideways mode around the lower boundary of the 1.42220/1.43750 multi-year horizontal resistance seen on the monthly time frame. Caution is advised until price action gives a directional clarity, perhaps after the early days of trading this week.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,251
  • May 30, 2021 3:46pm May 30, 2021 3:46pm
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The ERUSD market is still technically bullish. However, on the monthly time frame market operation is navigating the horizontal resistance at the 1.22160/1.23380 area (red).

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On the weekly time frame, market operation is in a bullish mode within a rising channel (red). However, it has entered the horizontal 1.22160/1.23380 area horizontal resistance area (red) seen on the monthly time frame. Although recent candlesticks have primarily lacked directional potency, the order flow context offers potential for bullish liquidity grab. Any bullish misstep may see a bearish charge for a southward pullback or sideways of market operation.

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On the daily time frame, price action is grinding northward within a rising channel (blue) within a larger rising channel (red) seen on the weekly time frame. But, presently, price action is largely sideways. Last week Thursday price action printed a miniature, ambivalent candlestick at the lower end of the channel after a relatively strong and big bearish candlestick was printed on Wednesday. On Friday, price action printed a long-tailed doji-like candlestick at the channel support trendline, confirming the market ambivalence.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDDaily_May 30, 2021.png Size: 55 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,252
  • May 30, 2021 4:04pm May 30, 2021 4:04pm
USDCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

The USDCAD market is still technically bearish. However, on the monthly time frame, market operation is navigating the 1.20540/1.19220 multi-year horizontal support area (green).

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Market operation on the weekly time frame is primarily bearish and grinding southwards within a falling channel (red). However, presently it is in an ambivalent mode as the candlesticks printed in the past two weeks have been mixed and relatively small. This is a slow-down in bearish momentum as market operation navigates the 1.20540/1.19220 multi-year horizontal support area (green) seen on the monthly time frame.

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Price action is presently sideways on the daily time frame. It has entered a multi-year horizontal support area (green) seen on the monthly time frame. Nevertheless, the technical structure still favours bears

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,253
  • Jun 5, 2021 1:50pm Jun 5, 2021 1:50pm
The GBPUSD market is technically bullish but it is in a sideways operating mode. I will give details of my technical perspective on this pair and three others by the market open.

Stay safe.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,254
  • Jun 6, 2021 2:15pm Jun 6, 2021 2:15pm
XAUUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The XAUUSD market is technically bullish. On the monthly time frame, a relatively bullish continuation candlestick was printed in May, but the candlestick high is just about 180 pips above the 1898.00 previous horizontal resistance level (purple). Nevertheless, in the past, some ‘wicky’ candlesticks had been printed northwards of the area; a pattern that may incentivize bulls for liquidity grab.

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On the weekly time frame, the order flow context supports bulls. However, presently, the market operating mode is sideways – the last two weeks having printed two opposing candlesticks of almost equivalent size. Technically, this is a corrective mode, and bulls are still favoured more than bears in the early part of this week.

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On the daily time frame, price action is in a rising wedge (red). Last week Thursday, a relatively big bearish candlestick broke down the 1907.30/1898.00 area of consolidation (purple) that has been in place near the wedge resistance trendline for six days but failed to hit the wedge support trendline. On Friday, although there was an initial bearish surge to the wedge support trendline, a bullish sprint during the session later aligned price action northward. Technicals and the order flow context favour bulls more than bears.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GOLDDaily_June 6, 2021.png Size: 54 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,255
  • Jun 6, 2021 3:32pm Jun 6, 2021 3:32pm
USDCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

The USDCAD market has been bearish for quite a while. On the monthly time frame, a bearish continuation candlestick was printed in May, and it nestled within the 1.20870/1.19110 multi-year horizontal support zone (green). This is a significant reaction zone, and we may see some sideways of market operation in it before any directional clarity.

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On the weekly time frame, market operation is in a falling channel (red). Presently, it has entered the upper boundary of the 1.20870/1.19110 multi-year horizontal support zone (green) seen on the monthly time frame. In the last four weeks, market operation has been sideways in the zone, printing mixed candlesticks of almost equivalent size – largely miniature. As the zone is a major horizontal support area, we may see further sideways of market operation, or even a northward pullback, before directional clarity.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On the daily time frame, price action has been sideways for 21 days in the 1.22000/1.20060 horizontal channel (blue). The channel is proximal to the 1.20870/1.19110 multi-year horizontal support zone seen on the monthly time frame. Until there is significant breakout of price action from the 1.20870/1.19110 multi-year horizontal support zone, we may not have confidence in any directional surge.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADDaily_June 6, 2021.png Size: 42 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,256
  • Jun 6, 2021 3:37pm Jun 6, 2021 3:37pm
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The GBPUSD technical bullish structure is still intact. On the monthly time frame, a bullish candlestick was printed in May which moved above the consolidation area that has been in place since February, but the May bullish candlestick failed to close above the high of the bullish candlestick printed in February. Market operation has entered the 1.41460/1.43370 multi-year horizontal resistance zone (red) and we may see an increase in bearish pressure as market operation tackles the zone.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Market operation on the weekly time frame is presently sideways as it tackles the 1.41460/1.43370 multi-year horizontal resistance zone (red) seen on the monthly time frame. Nevertheless, as the technical structure still favours bulls more than bears, we may still see some bullish attempt for liquidity grab in the early part of this week. However, I doubt if we would see a sustained bullish drive.

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Price action on the daily time frame is in a sideways mode. The market is tackling the multi-year horizontal resistance at the 1.41460/1.43370 zone (red). Last Friday, price action printed a bullish candlestick which, in real sense, is an inside-bar to the bearish candlestick printed on Thursday. Technically, the market is ambivalent owing to increased bearish pressure. Nevertheless, we cannot rule out some bullish move for liquidity grab northward before any daring bearish drive.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDDaily_June 6, 2021.png Size: 42 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,257
  • Jun 6, 2021 3:45pm Jun 6, 2021 3:45pm
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The EURUSD market is still in a supportive bullish technical structure, but market operation is presently at an area of consolidation. On the monthly time frame, market operation printed a bullish continuation candlestick above the high of the April bullish candlestick. Meanwhile, the May bullish candlestick has entered the 1.22380/1.23385 consolidation area (red), which has held as horizontal resistance since April 2018. Technically, the area is susceptible to an increased bearish pressure and may yield a southward turnaround or bearish correction. The 1.20160/1.19270 zone (green) is the prevailing horizontal support on the monthly time frame.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Market operation on the weekly time frame is still technically in favour of bulls, but there is an increased bearish pressure as it navigates the 1.22380/1.23385 consolidation area (red) seen on the monthly time frame. The candlestick printed in the past four weeks have been relatively small and have wicks of different sizes at both ends. This portends a slowdown in bullish directional momentum. Although we may still see some bullish move, any bullish misstep may incentivize bears to seek liquidity grab at an area of value southward.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On the daily time frame, price action has broken below an inner rising trendline (blue) to respect an outer rising trendline (red) traceable to April 5, 2021. On Friday, price action printed a bullish candlestick from the outer rising trendline (red) but the candlestick is basically an inside-bar to the relatively bigger bearish candlestick printed on Thursday. Technically, this shows a bearish influence. Any bullish candlestick printed in the early part of this week should be suspected if it lacks directional potency. A bullish misstep would incentivize bears for at least a southward pullback to an area of value, such as the 1.19900 round number handle (sandybrown). Generally, I do not trade on Mondays, so I will await what price action does in the early part of the week.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDDaily_June 6, 2021.png Size: 54 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,258
  • Jun 7, 2021 1:36pm Jun 7, 2021 1:36pm
Should the EURUSD market close above the 1.22250 area on the D1 tf today, we may see further bullish move as technicals and the order flow context on the D1 tf still support bulls more than bears.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Quoting KeenPips
....Any bullish candlestick printed in the early part of this week should be suspected if it lacks directional potency. A bullish misstep would incentivize bears for at least a southward pullback to an area of value, such as the 1.19900 round number handle (sandybrown). Generally, I do not trade on Mondays, so I will await what price action does in the early part of the week...
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,259
  • Edited 4:03pm Jun 12, 2021 3:40pm | Edited 4:03pm
Although the general technical structure of the XAUUSD market still favours bulls more than bears, presently the market operating mode is witnessing an increased bearish pressure. I will post my technical perspective on this asset and three pairs before the market opens.

Stay safe.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,260
  • Jun 13, 2021 2:45pm Jun 13, 2021 2:45pm
USDCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

The USDCAD market is still technically bearish although, presently, market operation is in a corrective bullish mode. On the monthly time frame, market operation is tackling the 1.20757/1.19110 multi-year horizontal support area (green). The May bearish continuation candlestick nestled in the area, while the interim June candlestick heads northward from there in a bullish mode.

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On the weekly time frame, market operation is grinding southwards in a falling channel (red). However, in the past five weeks it has been in a sideways mode as market operation tackles the 1.20757/1.19110 multi-year horizontal support area (green) seen on the monthly time frame. Last week, it printed a bullish candlestick that took market operation just a few pips above the area of consolidation; this is a technically expected bullish correction at a major horizontal support area and we may a southward turnaround after the bullish pullback.

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Price action on the daily time frame has been consolidating for several days. However, last Friday, a bullish candlestick was printed that pushed price action a few pips northward of the upper part of the area of consolidation. This is likely to be a corrective move as the technical structure and order flow context favour bears. After a corrective northward pullback to an area of value, such as the 1.22620/1.23285 area (magenta), we may see a southward turnaround.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
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