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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #598,501
  • May 29, 2021 5:56am May 29, 2021 5:56am
The weekly chart of GBPUSD showed a divergence signal when entering the strong supply zones 1.42398 and 1.43766.a possible scenario.
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  • #598,502
  • May 29, 2021 6:43am May 29, 2021 6:43am
Quoting Ihlas
{quote} Using SL is distribution of Bigger Loss I think I read it somewhere If somebody doesn't have an edge (when conditions), you are a loser in the long run. Just a waste of time.
Stop loss? SL? = Surrender & Lose.

Never use stop loss. Ones the stop loss is hit, the money is gone and there’s no way back. Every broker uses a stop loss hunter algorithms which generate quick (whip like) price jumps and falls which are too fast for our trading software to print graphically, but enough to kill stop losses. There are several techniques for doing this like for example 50 pips spread for a millisecond. You don’t see this printed on your chart. The only thing you see is your position gone.

That’s why I repeat again never use stop loss. Use Sell/Buy Stop instead of stop loss and if you have good hedging experiences you will never lose money to the market again.

Thank me later.
Nice weekend everyone.
No username yet? You are on my ignore list. Fuck off and do not quote me!
  • #598,503
  • May 29, 2021 7:19am May 29, 2021 7:19am
“I should say that I do not adopt the naïve realist view of scientific materialism that there just is a world ‘out there’ unaltered by our experience of it, which like so many Geiger counters or photosensitive plates we can do no more than register. For one thing, whatever we know, we cannot know what it would be like in the absence of our knowing it, and different people find different things in the world. Even the same person finds different things on different occasions, when the context or the type of attention changes. That does not mean, of course, that everything that exists owes its nature and existence solely to us. But it does mean that, whether we are scientists or not, we can only know the world as we have inevitably shaped it by the nature of our attention. More than that, physics teaches us that, at the most fundamental level of existence, there simply are no discrete pieces of inert matter. Instead there are clusters of interrelated probabilistic events that change their nature when observed.” Iain McGilchrist

When it comes to scalping I try to anticipate the areas most people are likely to be paying attention to, such as major S&R, certain whole numbers and the 200 ema on higher timeframes (especially if confluent with S&R) and also breakouts of congestion zones if the tick volume is super high, then I try to get in and out as fast as possible as once ‘observed’ the situation changes.
  • #598,504
  • May 29, 2021 7:19am May 29, 2021 7:19am
Quoting mysterio
{quote} Yea, the fake breakout was much more apparent on the Euro. Because it broke a large TL and support level. The MMs know about these levels and TLs of course so use breakouts to gather liquidity. On cable I think it was more carryover from the US dollar, because I didn't see any levels or lines broken. The break of 1.41 on the prior day I fell for hook line and sinker though..still learning. I used to think market manipulation was a myth losing traders use to justify their losses. Then you start seeing it almost every day and hopefully trade...
You made a good point. Sometimes market moves randomly to gather liquidity, hunt stops, giving fake signals etc. You can't know when (maybe you can but i can't really) it's going to happen but being patient, trading bigger timeframes and giving some breathing room for your trade helps avoiding these kinda stuff. Also ATR is helpful as well.

For example, I am someone that pays so much attention to correlations between the trades i take. I always check them because i don't want take unnecessary risks. If my trades are highly correlated, that means if market moves against me i am in trouble. It's not much different than over-leveraging your account.

So even though i don't take highly correlated trades, some days i see that all of my positions move against me. Then i go check correlations again and can't see any problem. Last Wednesday (26/05/2021) my CHFPLN short position and EU, GU long positions all moved against me. I can understand EU and GU correlation but CHFPLN? Made no sense.

Early on Thursday and Friday market continued to do these tricky moves but it all came back to normal in the end. I have seen these tricks before so i was confident, but when i was a newbie these tricky stuff used to make me question my system and caused me to change my decision every single day. That's actually why trading is difficult. Market moves random some days and makes you think you are wrong. When you change your opinion, it moves in the right direction and cause you to lose again So market trolls us from time to time

That's where we have to trust ourselves and be confident. We have to be confident enough to overcome these situations, but also we should be humble and smart enough to accept when we are wrong. Traders need to have good reasoning & judgment skills.
You have to have an IQ higher than 90 to interact with this user.
  • #598,505
  • May 29, 2021 7:20am May 29, 2021 7:20am
Quoting mysterio
{quote} Not sure on this one. I hear this claim bandied about a lot that intraday trading cannot be profitable. I've been pretty obsessively studying the 5m chart and can say with certainty that cable produces patterns regularly that give trades that produce profit with 95% certainty (arbitrary number, I just mean a very high likelihood). I don't think I can be convinced otherwise, maybe I am deluded or just getting lucky. I try to point them out on here when they arise. That last long trade I posted was an example.. I wasn't going to trade then...
Every pattern will work but it's cyclical.I wish you good luck.
I'm The Real Deal Quant-XR ,The Financial Hacker
  • #598,506
  • Edited 11:20am May 29, 2021 8:06am | Edited 11:20am
Quoting NotAtrader
{quote} Stop loss? SL? = Surrender & Lose. Never use stop loss. Ones the stop loss is hit, the money is gone and there’s no way back. Every broker uses a stop loss hunter algorithms which generate quick (whip like) price jumps and falls which are too fast for our trading software to print graphically, but enough to kill stop losses. There are several techniques for doing this like for example 50 pips spread for a millisecond. You don’t see this printed on your chart. The only thing you see is your position gone. That’s why I repeat again never use...
TRUE. Except you use it for safe your profit. My Newbie opinion. Just quick hit(profit) and run. Now better i learn about closely entry than learn where i should put SL. Because i'm trully newbie, Sometime i add more fund to hold and put another scalp for few profit just waiting from loses becoming profit.

All of you are great.
Everything is possible but not guaranteed
  • #598,507
  • May 29, 2021 10:09am May 29, 2021 10:09am
Quoting NotAtrader
{quote} Stop loss? SL? = Surrender & Lose. Never use stop loss. Ones the stop loss is hit, the money is gone and there’s no way back. Every broker uses a stop loss hunter algorithms which generate quick (whip like) price jumps and falls which are too fast for our trading software to print graphically, but enough to kill stop losses. There are several techniques for doing this like for example 50 pips spread for a millisecond. You don’t see this printed on your chart. The only thing you see is your position gone. That’s why I repeat again never use...
Yes, I meant the same but with fewer words. You clarified it fully. If you want to use stop loss just don't trade. You can cut loss according to the condition of the market but never use stop loss. Again to understand the market condition we need to learn again.

Quoting Pipa1
{quote} Every pattern will work but it's cyclical.I wish you good luck.
You mean Accumulation/Distribution and Trending?
  • #598,508
  • May 29, 2021 10:29am May 29, 2021 10:29am
Quoting NotAtrader
{quote} Stop loss? SL? = Surrender & Lose. Never use stop loss. Ones the stop loss is hit, the money is gone and there’s no way back. Every broker uses a stop loss hunter algorithms which generate quick (whip like) price jumps and falls which are too fast for our trading software to print graphically, but enough to kill stop losses. There are several techniques for doing this like for example 50 pips spread for a millisecond. You don’t see this printed on your chart. The only thing you see is your position gone. That’s why I repeat again never use...
This place is full of strange people. Every time I share some of my experiences of a good professional trader, there’s always somebody reacting absolutely inadequately IMO.

This time moradmun started ignoring me just two (2) minutes after I posted the post above. During 5 years membership this person has got ZERO subscribers, ZERO buddies, ZERO subscriptions and has posted just 4 posts. Suddenly after reading a hint which can be a game changer for his trading, he decides to ignore the author. Damn this kind of behavior confuses me to the limit of my ability to understand people.

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Good luck to you moradmun
No username yet? You are on my ignore list. Fuck off and do not quote me!
  • #598,509
  • May 29, 2021 11:48am May 29, 2021 11:48am
Quoting Ihlas
{quote} Yes, I meant the same but with fewer words. You clarified it fully. If you want to use stop loss just don't trade. You can cut loss according to the condition of the market but never use stop loss. Again to understand the market condition we need to learn again. {quote} You mean Accumulation/Distribution and Trending?
Hy Ihlas, Accumulation/ Distribution = trapping traders , trend = margin calling them(this can be seen on every timeframe, or price range)... i was referring to patterns used usually by traders.The market uses a single mechanism from micro to the macro structure(trapping traders and running away from them).What can be seen on charts as patterns is pure noise and coincidences(this explain why the patterns sold by any guru ,work only 1/3 of the time).A simple test is to trace 10 lines on a chart in 50 pips range around the actual price , the market will react at any of this lines, even if they do not represent nothing from historical data.The market will hit and react at ANY SINGLE price on a given price range. The mechanism presented by Richard Wyckoff in 1937 can be found in modern times from micro(tick data) to macro structure.

Remember the saying, “Buy the rumor, sell the news”?
“You have often noticed that a stock will sell at the highest price for many months on the very day when a stock dividend, or some very bullish news, appears in print. This is not mere accident.
The whole move is manufactured. Its purpose is to make money for inside interests — those who are operating in the stock in a large way. And this can only be done by fooling the public, or by inducing the public to fool themselves.”
Source: Wyckoff (1937)
https://financialpost.com/investing/...-to-know-about
I'm The Real Deal Quant-XR ,The Financial Hacker
  • #598,510
  • Edited 2:34pm May 29, 2021 2:22pm | Edited 2:34pm
Quoting Ihlas
{quote} To some extent I agree with you, BUT when it will SUPPORT and RESIST? Not paper trading Even our infinite universe has an order.

Whether Support or Resistance will break or price will bounce from it is indeed the essential question regarding it. (I assume that is what you mean?) The first step is in pre-identifying it....once that is done you have to watch (on say a lower t/f from it) what price does when it reaches it, how it reaches it, and what is happening to it on reaching it (ie is price ranging or trending, and on how many t/f's?) ...Study the PA at it on a break or bounce and any supporting studies you may add to inform you about say changes in momentum, volatility, volume etc....and then see if there are any repeating patterns (for a break or bounce) over a large representative sample size. Organise yourself with some methodology and knowledge of what the repeating patterns are - and you may have an edge using it. All you have to do then is optimise your money and risk management to it, and then develop the necessary psychology to trade it profitably going forward.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #598,511
  • May 29, 2021 2:43pm May 29, 2021 2:43pm
Quoting Pipa1
{quote} Hy Ihlas, Accumulation/ Distribution = trapping traders , trend = margin calling them(this can be seen on every timeframe, or price range)... i was referring to patterns used usually by traders.The market uses a single mechanism from micro to the macro structure(trapping traders and running away from them).What can be seen on charts as patterns is pure noise and coincidences(this explain why the patterns sold by any guru ,work only 1/3 of the time).A simple test is to trace 10 lines on a chart in 50 pips range around the actual price , the...

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resilience....
  • #598,512
  • May 29, 2021 3:28pm May 29, 2021 3:28pm
Quoting hederi
{quote} {image}
Interesting...
Very similar pattern of GU daily chart.
Trade to enjoy... Money is after!
  • #598,513
  • May 29, 2021 10:02pm May 29, 2021 10:02pm
Quoting Moty
{image}
5 waves is right, but and the movement ABC ? Use the small timeframes M15 or M30, have more candles and will be easy to see. Good luck.
Together we can be strongest
Vantage Return This Month: -97.0%
  • #598,514
  • May 29, 2021 10:02pm May 29, 2021 10:02pm
Good Morning All

Wish me luck to win today race.

Yesterday race only managed to secure 5th place.

p/s the front camel refuse to wear mask... stubborn guy !



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  • #598,515
  • May 29, 2021 10:10pm May 29, 2021 10:10pm
Quoting Moty
{image}
Think about, if the EURGBP is dropping. Is better to sell or buy the GBP ?

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Together we can be strongest
Vantage Return This Month: -97.0%
  • #598,516
  • May 29, 2021 10:49pm May 29, 2021 10:49pm
Quoting Sang.Real
Good Morning All Wish me luck to win today race. Yesterday race only managed to secure 5th place. p/s the front camel refuse to wear mask... stubborn guy ! {image}
Good luck mate I wish you achieve the desired result. Good luck
No username yet? You are on my ignore list. Fuck off and do not quote me!
  • #598,517
  • May 29, 2021 11:23pm May 29, 2021 11:23pm
Quoting palpite
{quote} Think about, if the EURGBP is dropping. Is better to sell or buy the GBP ? {image}
If EG drop so GU will be to the upside.
  • #598,518
  • May 29, 2021 11:32pm May 29, 2021 11:32pm
Quoting NotAtrader
{quote} Stop loss? SL? = Surrender & Lose. Never use stop loss. Ones the stop loss is hit, the money is gone and there’s no way back. Every broker uses a stop loss hunter algorithms which generate quick (whip like) price jumps and falls which are too fast for our trading software to print graphically, but enough to kill stop losses. There are several techniques for doing this like for example 50 pips spread for a millisecond. You don’t see this printed on your chart. The only thing you see is your position gone. That’s why I repeat again never use...
i am using an EA, a very important part of which is SL.
this SL level is always a fixed value, it allows me to scale correctly.
this also requires manual intervention by the EA.
  • #598,519
  • May 29, 2021 11:46pm May 29, 2021 11:46pm
Quoting Pipa1
{quote} Hy Ihlas, Accumulation/ Distribution = trapping traders , trend = margin calling them(this can be seen on every timeframe, or price range)... i was referring to patterns used usually by traders.The market uses a single mechanism from micro to the macro structure(trapping traders and running away from them).What can be seen on charts as patterns is pure noise and coincidences(this explain why the patterns sold by any guru ,work only 1/3 of the time).A simple test is to trace 10 lines on a chart in 50 pips range around the actual price , the...
I appreciate what you have written here. As I see you have developed your own system. From my 4-5 months studies on charts I have seen two large cycles on 5M TF and 1 micro cycle on 1M TF. I don't know if you pay attentions to small details, but looking at the smaller timeframes can give the edge and market direction bias exactly. My accumulation/distribution cycle observation has finished and it was mostly right. But trending forecasts were mostly wrong (Now it will be right too). Now GU has started accumulation/distribution phase. I see that market has the same structure, but gives it with different clothes. That's the interesting part.
I will look at Wyckoff, maybe I will find something useful for my work.

Quoting Headland
{quote} Whether Support or Resistance will break or price will bounce from it is indeed the essential question regarding it. (I assume that is what you mean?) The first step is in pre-identifying it....once that is done you have to watch (on say a lower t/f from it) what price does when it reaches it, how it reaches it, and what is happening to it on reaching it (ie is price ranging or trending, and on how many t/f's?) ...Study the PA at it on a break or bounce and any supporting studies you may add to inform you about say changes in momentum, volatility,...
Thank for your time. BUT don't you think it's too risky with such kind of approach. For me, SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE is just an illusion. To some extent I agree with you, but why it rejects from support and resistance? Where is it heading to?
If we knew where it's heading to, we will exactly know that it will reject from support and resistance.
  • #598,520
  • May 30, 2021 12:05am May 30, 2021 12:05am
Quoting traderock
{quote} If EG drop so GU will be to the upside.
Yes, this is the idea. I think is better to trade after tuesday. For while, have an consolidation H1.

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