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  • #598,481
  • May 29, 2021 2:39am May 29, 2021 2:39am
Quoting gatenio
{quote} Yes, but this is not really matter how you collecting the pips/money. Any method, if it shows you the money.. this is the bottom line i guess. the better to be a swinger is not to track of every move, this is what i hate about my method, im tired of it.. but the money worth it.

is true, I am also tired of missing the bounces, it is not like I do not see them which is what gets on my nerves, I just do want to accept that it will bounce..lol
so much for not having a bias
  • #598,482
  • May 29, 2021 3:02am May 29, 2021 3:02am
Quoting kris89
Just wait and see how the market do on monday . No statement no conclusion. Price still on ranging area 1.42 - 1.41 as no break in both side will put price make accumulation or Distribution. Just seek a signal of strengh or weakness for further mover There is some case in Daily candle {image} P.S : price close above double top but still near there. Anything can happen. Price could be FO and take below double bottom also. So remaining keep eyes on it and take any chance to get ride . Happy Weekend
Frustrating week for intraday and short term traders. My thinking is we have seen GU reject 14220 a few times. We also saw 14090 rejected my personal thinking is although we are close to 142, it might not go much higher than that as there is a lot of resistance above it.

if anything is to break it might be a bearish trend that could be triggered by news/data
the UK will be in focus about concerns of easing of lockdown which might give us the fuel required to drop

Bearish targets for next week for me: 14150 then 14100 followed by 14050.
Insane in the Brain..
  • #598,483
  • May 29, 2021 3:06am May 29, 2021 3:06am
hi am a new to forex and learning keep on
while am taking the support and resistance how many previous supports and resistances to take for analysis ? and go for further entries ?
  • #598,484
  • May 29, 2021 4:15am May 29, 2021 4:15am
Quoting nAVIN2007
{quote} I think this is the difference between us..i swing trade and expect the market to rally..u expect it to bounce and 70% of the time it bounces..and my brain just does not want to expect/accept it is bouncing haha

My good trades normally comes from ranging market. Admittedly, I'm weak in trending market ,as my brain always trying to find the bounce on BO or Fake out.

What I'm trying to improve moving forward as the need to look at is the market context.
There are Four types of context such as volatile / non volatile / impulsive / and corrective.
Trading is done by combining support and resistance levels with these four things but the amount of loss will be reduced a lot. (Still trying to understand those)


The basics are simple but where it becomes difficult is knowing without a doubt in your mind, is the trend continuing, stalling reversing, or entering a range.?
I’m not saying you need to become a predictor of price movement but you need to have rules in place that dictate when a trend has ended or begun.
Trying to predict where price will turn around is a tough game to play.
Happen to me, when market start trending, I still trade as if it is ranging, that's where I got burned....lol (Many times)
  • #598,485
  • May 29, 2021 4:18am May 29, 2021 4:18am
I am locked into short on 1.4188 shit. I suppose to close it before weekend.
  • #598,486
  • May 29, 2021 4:21am May 29, 2021 4:21am
Quoting nAVIN2007
{quote} is true, I am also tired of missing the bounces, it is not like I do not see them which is what gets on my nerves, I just do want to accept that it will bounce..lol so much for not having a bias
FIXED STOP LOSS IN A DYNAMIC MARKET.
When you see profitable scalpers ask about their loosing periods.This is only my point of view , take it as it is.
Speaking about the market as i studied it at a competitive level.We are in 2021 and if you think that a bunch of buyers and sellers are moving the market you are wrong.This is my point of view after years of studies in the micro market world.
You didn't missed nothing,since i work with algorithms and i consistently back tested the market looking for alpha .In my research i could simulate the exact % of directional market movement for mid term traders, swing traders.They are being paid a "fixed daily quote" for all the waiting time.On the opposite, who take the scalping approach, takes more market risk and in the long term the scalping approach have a smaller daily quote than a swing trader, because the market is random in short term.A scalper who gun for 20 pips will miss the 60 pips moves but also the 19 pips moves and will be caught on wrong direction every 4 hours.The market is built in a way to not allow easy money to nobody.Will generate a random set of numbers to avoid a scalper to make money .
ex 2,-7,5,-12,15,-60,13,-5,10,-19,15,-100.
if you try to take the average you will hit 2 times and with a tight SL will loose the rest and without an SL will blow up on big fast moves.The market range and speed are continuous changing from small to big and back.The average become useless.
Another important thing i managed to handle is how a 6 months profitable strategy on live account will loose all the gains and go negative in the next 6 months.The market uses "switch points", the easiest tactic to make a winning strategy become unprofitable is to invert the signals, the BUY signal will become SELL and vice versa.I managed to handle this type of switch points inverting completely the signals when detecting this type of tactic(only if the strategy is profitable, cannot be applied with already unprofitable strategies).

Said that, nobody have the guarantee to make money in the market but a small percentage handle to do it.We are different and some of us are smarter than others , this could explain why in rare cases, a scalper can be the exception and be successful and profitable.The money management is a poor technique and will only delay the inevitable.You have the talent and skills or not.Is so simple.
I'm The Real Deal Quant-XR ,The Financial Hacker
  • #598,487
  • May 29, 2021 5:03am May 29, 2021 5:03am
Quoting BeeTogether
{quote} Frustrating week for intraday and short term traders. My thinking is we have seen GU reject 14220 a few times. We also saw 14090 rejected my personal thinking is although we are close to 142, it might not go much higher than that as there is a lot of resistance above it. if anything is to break it might be a bearish trend that could be triggered by news/data the UK will be in focus about concerns of easing of lockdown which might give us the fuel required to drop Bearish targets for next week for me: 14150 then 14100 followed by 14050.
If you see clearly the monthly candle still have monday. Weekly was close more smaller candle than the last one and daily make a hanging boy. H4 seem like judas swing and price retest both below and top many times as when SNR being tested many time its become more weak and more weak. As i see both north and south possible in next week. But IMO just IMO price will need down first to test last swing or break last swing to get the real way .
Its just opinion not a trade setup
"Buy Cheap and Sell Expensive , Its Market Anyways where People Get profit"
  • #598,488
  • May 29, 2021 5:16am May 29, 2021 5:16am
Quoting kris89
{quote} If you see clearly the monthly candle still have monday. Weekly was close more smaller candle than the last one and daily make a hanging boy. H4 seem like judas swing and price retest both below and top many times as when SNR being tested many time its become more weak and more weak. As i see both north and south possible in next week. But IMO just IMO price will need down first to test last swing or break last swing to get the real way . Its just opinion not a trade setup
totally agree. The bullish traders were convinced that we would see 14230-50 which we didn’t a bit like the bearish traders and 13950 - 14000. I was looking for a lock and load for a decent bull run over 14250.
will be looking to pick either at b/e or if 141 breaks 14050 for a retrace. However it all depends on various trendines
Insane in the Brain..
  • #598,489
  • May 29, 2021 5:23am May 29, 2021 5:23am
Quoting MTF Test
{quote} Your getting your trades from 30M and I am getting the same from 1M TF. Fantastic Sang. Cheers ! {image}
My short answer.

Quoting Sang.Real
{quote} This particular set up came from Daily Chart couple with H4. That's where I saw the Long set up. M30 is just for a better price entry. I cannot go below M30, or I will get dizzy looking at very fast chart. Take care and trade well.
This is detail answer.

Let me share you how I find this scalping set up using Daily /H4 and H60 TF. Not showing M30 here coz need to zoom out a lot and can't see the price action, therefore I substitute it with H1 (is about the same PA)

Explanation in the chart . Hope it helps.

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  • #598,490
  • May 29, 2021 5:42am May 29, 2021 5:42am
Scalper Heaven

It would be nice if market will continue ranging for another 10 days.

Scalper will miss this period once price break either way......

Because I find it difficult to trade trending market,



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  • #598,491
  • May 29, 2021 5:51am May 29, 2021 5:51am
Quoting Pipa1
{quote} FIXED STOP LOSS IN A DYNAMIC MARKET. When you see profitable scalpers ask about their loosing periods.This is only my point of view , take it as it is. Speaking about the market as i studied it at a competitive level.We are in 2021 and if you think that a bunch of buyers and sellers are moving the market you are wrong.This is my point of view after years of studies in the micro market world. You didn't missed nothing,since i work with algorithms and i consistently back tested the market looking for alpha .In my research i could simulate...

Using SL is distribution of Bigger Loss
I think I read it somewhere
If somebody doesn't have an edge (when conditions), you are a loser in the long run. Just a waste of time.
  • #598,492
  • Edited 6:36am May 29, 2021 6:20am | Edited 6:36am
Quoting Nordling00
Market made a fake down move on both GU and EU. It was a nice week for buyers, weekend will be even nicer Have a good weekend guys!

Hi Nordling00

Fake Out vs Correction

My apology that I have to disagree with your statement. I hope that's okey to disagree on technical not personal level.

The move is look more like correction because it if it is fake down, it must have broke some support zone. Which in this case, none.

Another character on Fake Out, it normally are very shallow and swift, whereas the Friday move (i,e correction) was four hours long in the making and completed itself as Compression. Compression it is where accumulation session by Institutional Trader and price returned to source of the move.( not to the pips, but almost)

When fake move happen, it will return above the previous BO price and will immediately consolidate and whipsaw there after. Look at the previous Fake out reaction, you can see how price behaves after the FO itself. (Chart below with description)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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You may have your own way to interpret Price Action, but as Newbie, this is what I've learned from BabyPips & YouTube.

If I'm wrong please do correct me, I'm eager to learn more and becoming like many professional traders in this thread.

Still young and look forward to learn from anyone who willing to share their knowledge.

Best Regards

Sang Real
  • #598,493
  • Edited 7:55am May 29, 2021 6:41am | Edited 7:55am
Quoting Pipa1
{quote} FIXED STOP LOSS IN A DYNAMIC MARKET. When you see profitable scalpers ask about their loosing periods.This is only my point of view , take it as it is. Speaking about the market as i studied it at a competitive level.We are in 2021 and if you think that a bunch of buyers and sellers are moving the market you are wrong.This is my point of view after years of studies in the micro market world. You didn't missed nothing,since i work with algorithms and i consistently back tested the market looking for alpha .In my research i could simulate...
Not sure on this one. I hear this claim bandied about a lot that intraday trading cannot be profitable. I've been pretty obsessively studying the 5m chart and can say with certainty that cable produces patterns regularly that give trades that produce profit with 95% certainty (arbitrary number, I just mean a very high likelihood). I don't think I can be convinced otherwise, maybe I am deluded or just getting lucky. I try to point them out on here when they arise. That last long trade I posted was an example.. I wasn't going to trade then I saw that pattern on the 5m and knew I'd just be leaving free money on the table. The drop from 1.42 also, I posted what was going to happen before it did cause I saw a pattern that repeats itself. I go in with full lotsize and risk with these. They don't happen every day but regularly enough to make it worthwhile. The huge catch is they dont tell you where to TP so you need to use something else to determine this. Didn't read them anywhere it was just through observation. I am trying just to stick to these and not take the more speculative bounces from levels. Well, we'll see if I'm still here in 6 months anyway, I have been humbled enough in the past. The humbling is always from the speculative trades though, the ones where it's feeling/hoping/dreaming. I posted a trade straight after that was just a gutshot rather that with good confirmation and rightly got burned on it. If people fail it's likely because of this, excessive overconfidence leading to poor patience and discipline.
  • #598,494
  • Edited 7:45am May 29, 2021 6:55am | Edited 7:45am
Quoting Sang.Real
{quote} Hi Nordling00 Fake Out vs Correction My apology that I have to disagree with your statement. I hope that's okey to disagree on technical not personal level. The move is look more like correction because it if it is fake down, it must have broke some support zone. Which in this case, none. Another character on Fake Out, it normally are very shallow and swift, whereas the Friday move (i,e correction) was four hours long in the making and completed itself as Compression. Compression it is where accumulation session by Institutional Trader and...
Of course it's okay to disagree brother. No offense taken, we cannot develop ourselves if we are too stubborn to listen different opinions. That's what a healthy communication is all about. We are here to share and discuss, brainstorming etc. I don't roast people who disagrees with me, i roast people who disrespects me. As long as we respect each other, we can discuss anything brother.

So back to the topic, i see your point and it makes sense honestly. I am not so good at TA, so i call all of them pullbacks, false/fake breakouts It looks like i used the wrong term for the last day's move. It was a correction.

I don't know if i still be able to edit my post where i called it "fake" but i will correct it if i can.

Thank you for correcting me bro. If someone does correct me in a respectful manner, i will be sure that they have good intentions. So thank you for that as well.

I hope you are having a good weekend, best regards.

Serhat Arca Kaynak a.k.a Nordling
You have to have an IQ higher than 90 to interact with this user.
  • #598,495
  • May 29, 2021 7:06am May 29, 2021 7:06am
It's not necessary how do we call it. Fake out, false out, take out, take away. LOL . Just concentrate on why it happened, why it stopped there, why it rised again?
Naming with different names doesn't change anything.
  • #598,496
  • Edited 7:25am May 29, 2021 7:08am | Edited 7:25am
Quoting Nordling00
{quote} Of course it's okay to disagree brother. No offense taken, we cannot develop ourselves if we are too stubborn to listen different opinions. That's what a healthy communication is all about. We are here to share and discuss, brainstorming etc. I don't roast people who disagrees with me, i roast people who disrespects me. As long as we respect each other, we can discuss anything brother. So back to the topic, i see your point and it makes sense honestly. I am not so good at TA, so i call all of them pullbacks, false/fake breakouts It...
Yea, the fake breakout was much more apparent on the Euro. Because it broke a large TL and support level. The MMs know about these levels and TLs of course so use breakouts to gather liquidity. On cable I think it was more carryover from the US dollar, because I didn't see any levels or lines broken.

The break of 1.41 on the prior day I fell for hook line and sinker though..still learning. I used to think market manipulation was a myth losing traders use to justify their losses. Then you start seeing it almost every day and hopefully trade it to your advantage.

Even the Friday move above 1.42 in the morning before the dive, was that a reach for liquidity? I reckon so. Quick pump up to break the last Asia high then an immediate dive. Slowly learning to trade it both ways. It's also why mechanical rule based breakout strategies will never ever work long term imo. In fact you might even get better results doing the opposite of what they say. Back in the day I used to see people selling these morning breakout strategies, maybe they still do. Blatant scam
  • #598,497
  • May 29, 2021 7:25am May 29, 2021 7:25am
...Just some general points about Support and Resistance, as below.

I think it is important to note that not all potential support or resistance factors are created equal, and for me at least they carry different weighting depending on their proven large sample historical incidence of resulting in such. The confluence of potential supp/res factors can be important too and higher in probability of a bounce as the outcome.

First of all when price tests potential pre-identified supp or res one of 5 things is going to happen;

a. A clean bounce from it (ie it holds.)
b. A bounce, a retest of it and a further 'truer' 2nd bounce.
c. A small bounce(s) from it, then a 2nd (+) test resulting in a break through it.
d. A clean break through it.
e. A break through it, A pullback retest (s) of it from other side (ie now potential sbr or rbs) and a 2nd 'truer' break away from it.

In my 18 years of trading using a support/resistance based technical edge I have found the following to be generally true. Others may disagree but if they do I hope it is from an empirically based large sample evidence position, not just from anecdotal / observational evidence, or worse what they think/assume to be true - both of which can be misleading to them, and others;

1. The more times a potential supp/res zone/area is hit the potentially weaker it becomes
2. Potential supp/res is more likely to get broken in strong momentum / trending conditions.
3. The higher the t/f (time frame) a potential supp/res area/zone or other factor exists upon, the potentially more significant it is
4. The greater the number of t/f's a potential supp/res area/zone is visible/exists on, the potentially more significant it is.
5. The more recent (relative to the t/f it is on) a potential supp/res area/zone is, the potentially more significant it is.
6. The confluence of 4., above and/ or different proven potential supp/res factors can result in a higher probability of a bounce from an area/zone, over a break through it.
7. The lowest 'significant' t/f for potential supp/res is 1Hr.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #598,498
  • May 29, 2021 7:34am May 29, 2021 7:34am
Quoting Headland
...Just some general points about Support and Resistance, as below. I think it is important to note that not all potential support or resistance factors are created equal, and for me at least they carry different weighting depending on their proven large sample historical incidence of resulting in such. The confluence of potential supp/res factors can be important too and higher in probability of a bounce as the outcome. First of all when price tests potential pre-identified supp or res one of 5 things is going to happen; a. A clean bounce from...
What do you think about the first test of a level, would you trade it? If it's potentially the strongest. Or I guess this could be seen as the second test of demand. IE this in Fri.
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  • #598,499
  • May 29, 2021 7:35am May 29, 2021 7:35am
Quoting Headland
...Just some general points about Support and Resistance, as below. I think it is important to note that not all potential support or resistance factors are created equal, and for me at least they carry different weighting depending on their proven large sample historical incidence of resulting in such. The confluence of potential supp/res factors can be important too and higher in probability of a bounce as the outcome. First of all when price tests potential pre-identified supp or res one of 5 things is going to happen; a. A clean bounce from...
To some extent I agree with you, BUT when it will SUPPORT and RESIST? Not paper trading
Even our infinite universe has an order.
  • #598,500
  • May 29, 2021 7:44am May 29, 2021 7:44am
Quoting mysterio
{quote} What do you think about the first test of a level, would you trade it? If it's potentially the strongest. Or I guess this could be seen as the second test of demand. IE this in Fri. {image}

Hi Mate, Yes I do trade the first test of a potential pre-identified supp or res level/zone (for a bounce) only if my edge sets-up. (Ie: when it does I know the % chance of a bounce from it on the 1st (and 2nd) test of it. If my edge does not set-up (and other factors associated with my edge are present) I know the % chance of a break through it on the 1st or 2nd attempt, as discussed in my post above. I know this for potential supp or res zones/levels only on 1hr+, and for potential sbr/rbs zones/levels on 5min +. (These probabilities are calculated from a very large empirical evidence sample, and that calculation (via a spreadsheet) continually updates that % probability as each new incidence is added.)
Trader with an Edge.
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