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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #593,661
  • May 8, 2021 8:25am May 8, 2021 8:25am
Quoting Nordling00
{quote} I am here for nearly 2 months now. You have seen my posts right from the start. We disagreed a lot and still do. But please be objective, you know my comments on GBP and when did i fail? When did you see market go against my analysis?
I am being objective ,I tip my hat to you as you have been right, the $ has been bearish.
I only say be careful this time were in, because it isn't in the books ,I feel for someone trying to lean the rules when theres so much intervention.

It's only your reasoning I'm pointing to ,before you're looking at Yellow data when red moved it and this time you're not looking at the headline that moved the market, because you can reason it with inflation's bad for a currency in the UK or US theme.
The Central banks want inflation higher .
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  • #593,662
  • May 8, 2021 8:45am May 8, 2021 8:45am
my forecast for next week

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Assalamualaikum
  • #593,663
  • Edited 12:16pm May 8, 2021 8:45am | Edited 12:16pm
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Quoting Nordling00
{quote} I am here for nearly 2 months now. You have seen my posts right from the start. We disagreed a lot and still do. But please be objective, you know my comments on GBP and when did i fail? When did you see market go against my analysis?
Whats happening in the US right now is QE which you can defiantly say is MMT over last +10Y , which has reached all new highs beyond all other countries.
A complete experiment ,that Joe wants to take even further with Yellens help.
So once you start you can't stop with many un intended consequences ,such as many analysts yesterday thinking the jobs are there but people don't need them yet.

With inflation theres a large amount of psychology involved it's not raw numbers only. So thats the game we play with the FED ....they say rising prices are short term.
The Fed cannot say anything else, as we would see mayhem, they carry extreme bias .The Fed literally can't afford higher rates.
For instance if someone notices price rise, they may buy more thinking it will be dearer later otherwise etc, a potential doom vortex forcing prices up .
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  • #593,664
  • Edited 9:33am May 8, 2021 9:18am | Edited 9:33am
So inflation means the cost of borrowing goes up .The Yield on debt goes UP right along with the related currency .This is not outright controlled by the FED at all, at this time.
There are many factors to believe inflation genie is out already ,they just need to come together
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  • #593,665
  • May 8, 2021 9:32am May 8, 2021 9:32am
Quoting Bones
So inflation means the cost of borrowing goes up .The Yield on debt goes UP right along with the related currency .This is not outright controlled by the FED at all, at this time. There are many factors to believe inflation genie is out already ,they just need to come together {image} {image} {image}
ok sir what are your thought in GBPUSD do you think that it we go down pls your wise wisdom on it thank you
  • #593,666
  • May 8, 2021 9:41am May 8, 2021 9:41am
Quoting Bones
So inflation means the cost of borrowing goes up .The Yield on debt goes UP right along with the related currency .This is not outright controlled by the FED at all, at this time. There are many factors to believe inflation genie is out already ,they just need to come together {image} {image} {image}

what TNX bro?
  • #593,667
  • May 8, 2021 10:02am May 8, 2021 10:02am
Quoting nAVIN2007
{quote} what TNX bro?
10 year treasury ,Government sell debt in auctions in all time frames.
It's supposed to be the as good as cash debt especially the 10 year.
Risk free
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  • #593,668
  • May 8, 2021 10:08am May 8, 2021 10:08am
if it goes too that high that could be an opportunity ,it's still within the very tight range.The proof will be in the pudding should we see any inflation in the major news events
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  • #593,669
  • May 8, 2021 10:18am May 8, 2021 10:18am
Quoting Bones
{quote} I am being objective ,I tip my hat to you as you have been right, the $ has been bearish. I only say be careful this time were in, because it isn't in the books ,I feel for someone trying to lean the rules when theres so much intervention. It's only your reasoning I'm pointing to ,before you're looking at Yellow data when red moved it and this time you're not looking at the headline that moved the market, because you can reason it with inflation's bad for a currency in the UK or US theme. The Central banks want inflation higher . {image}...
Well, thank you for warning me Mr. Bones. I appreciate it but my strategy is going fine so far. I understand all the tables and analysis you upload here and yes i gotta admit that your perspective also makes sense but i simply disagree.

Headline inflation is also important but Central Banks pay more attention to Core Inflation. I won't leave it until CBs leave it.

CBs want inflation around 2% because they want businesses to grow, people to find jobs and more production. These things are great for the citizens, great for the sustainability. I don't deny that. I basically say while they do it, they sacrifice %2 currency value. That's why fiat currencies always lose their value against gold in the long run. You can see it in 100 yr Gold chart.

Also as an example during 2002-2008 US Economic Boom and Real Estate Balloon, USD lost it's value against GBP between 2002-2008. Economy was booming but currency was depreciating. You can see that GBP/USD uptrend clearly.

And last of all Non-Form Payrolls, in April numbers came so high yet USD didn't mind it and continued to depreciate while everybody was expecting it to rise. This month numbers came so low and people thought it is the reason why USD fall. Why it didn't appreciate in April then, if it is highly correlated with NFP? I think it has nothing to do with it. Average Hourly Earnings is more of a real reason behind them. A sneaky one indeed.
You have to have an IQ higher than 90 to interact with this user.
  • #593,670
  • Edited 1:51pm May 8, 2021 1:37pm | Edited 1:51pm
Quoting Nordling00
{quote} Well, thank you for warning me Mr. Bones. I appreciate it but my strategy is going fine so far. I understand all the tables and analysis you upload here and yes i gotta admit that your perspective also makes sense but i simply disagree. Headline inflation is also important but Central Banks pay more attention to Core Inflation. I won't leave it until CBs leave it. CBs want inflation around 2% because they want businesses to grow, people to find jobs and more production. These things are great for the citizens, great for the sustainability....
These NFP jobs aren't new jobs also we have this game FED are playing with words.The fed talk down inflation which is the same as talking down USD.
The way to tell is what happens when we get an inflation related actual data story ,maybe next week.
We know wages in the US are at an all time high due to the stimulus ,retail sales is the most trustworthy indicator ,we need to know the money is being spent .
You can't argue prices of things won't go up if raw materials doubled in the last year.
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  • #593,671
  • May 8, 2021 1:42pm May 8, 2021 1:42pm
a brave man says thats transitory or maybe someone who has no other choice but to say it
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  • #593,672
  • Edited May 9, 2021 1:45am May 8, 2021 2:01pm | Edited May 9, 2021 1:45am
Quoting Pipa1
Today GU 1.39750 -1.40++ EU 1.21250 -121500
USD is increasing the strength next week.I can see GBPUSD as low as 1.36800 in the next period.
I'm The Real Deal Quant-XR ,The Financial Hacker
  • #593,673
  • May 8, 2021 2:02pm May 8, 2021 2:02pm
Quoting Vincent1
{quote} While 1.416 is still a target for two of my patterns, I saw no so much power from the bulls yesterday
So I was wondering if they are able to get upthere

Anyway, I keep TP at 1.416 but I also have a plan B

Plan B: we saw the power of level 1.40, it is so strong due to the round number and also for the power of the market on 25th-26th Feb (the price action on 25/26 Feb is my target on Euro). Long term bears want to break that level to hunting stops and then revers down. So the plan B is to close the trade in case of signal of false breakout...
Timing is not my best, I still need to study a lot to improve...

Anyway the two plans are still on the table. This why we all know that Big Boys and locals like false breakouts to place their orders. So, there are a lot of Stop Losses and Buy orders above 1.40 now, and for sure they are looking for break the area and place Sell orders. Usually the high importante of the breakout says that a strong move in the opposite direction is going to happen

I still prefer Plan A, since the last area of fight before the down under 1.37 was between 1.4090/1.4175. So a lot of Bears are still waiting there to enter in the market. There is also a nice AB=CD with target around 1.4140/1.4150. The precise 0.618 retr and the 1.61 exp says that it is very harmonic. I hope to get there within 2 weeks (but timing is not my best)

After that, with a strong Bears reaction, next target can be under 1.31

IMHO

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  • #593,674
  • May 8, 2021 2:05pm May 8, 2021 2:05pm
Quoting Bones
{quote} 10 year treasury ,Government sell debt in auctions in all time frames. It's supposed to be the as good as cash debt especially the 10 year. Risk free

thanks bro..I wont pretend i understand thou
  • #593,675
  • May 8, 2021 2:14pm May 8, 2021 2:14pm
Quoting Bones
a brave man says thats transitory or maybe someone who has no other choice but to say it {image}
I have a technical target at 5030 (actually the area 4910/5070). The structure since the start of March says that Bulls lost power. Similar sign on Copper. Crude Oil already got the top

So, something is going to happen in the next two weeks. I don't know what about fundamentals. But technical patterns say that commodity and stock are going to be sold and buy on USD

IMHO
  • #593,676
  • May 8, 2021 2:17pm May 8, 2021 2:17pm
Greetings experienced traders

With SNP winning the Scottish election today, who seek Independence, how will this effect GBPUSD this coming week?
  • #593,677
  • Edited 4:55pm May 8, 2021 2:41pm | Edited 4:55pm
Quoting Vincent1
{quote} Timing is not my best, I still need to study a lot to improve... Anyway the two plans are still on the table. This why we all know that Big Boys and locals like false breakouts to place their orders. So, there are a lot of Stop Losses and Buy orders above 1.40 now, and for sure they are looking for break the area and place Sell orders. Usually the high importante of the breakout says that a strong move in the opposite direction is going to happen I still prefer Plan A, since the last area of fight before the down under 1.37 was between 1.4090/1.4175....
Was thinking broadly the same thing man. 1.40 supply has been tested a lot and it is surely time to have a rummage up there for some buy stops. Then we can have a bear party.

Maybe we head down to the new 4h demand created below the mid 1.39xx before up

Or like you say, 1.40 just rejects again... but I favour the up to 1.41xx first, I think it is time. Short from 1.4150 is almost too perfect. This would create something of a weekly double top and is a strong weekly supply area from a while back.

So dream scenario for Monday, some retrace from 1.40 during asia then kaboom, massive long breakout during London/NY. Some kind of ranging/distribution pattern up there maybe. Of course, we go with the price action on the day, no predicting, just a set of scenarios in mind that are either confirmed or invalidated.
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  • #593,678
  • May 8, 2021 2:41pm May 8, 2021 2:41pm
Quoting Vincent1
{quote} I have a technical target at 5030 (actually the area 5010/5070). The structure since the start of March says that Bulls lost power. Similar sign on Copper. Crude Oil already got the top So, something is going to happen in the next two weeks. I don't know what about fundamentals. But technical patterns say that commodity and stock are going to be sold and buy on USD IMHO
I can help you to add the fundamental part of your prediction. Your technical view almost matches my fundamental view with the small correction that the commodities may not fall as much as you expect or maybe even jump.

Here us why:

With the military and economic tension between China and Australia growing the US dollar and the oil will get appreciated. This sentiment strengthens by the China’s activity in the South China Sea which increases the the global geopolitical uncertainty and will increase the US dollar, OIL and copper, iron, aluminum demand.
So USD, CAD, AUD, NOK, OIL will probably get stronger. GBP will fall. EUR is a mix of complicated relations and will probably be ranging.

Just my view. Not a trading advice.
No username yet? You are on my ignore list. Fuck off and do not quote me!
  • #593,679
  • May 8, 2021 3:02pm May 8, 2021 3:02pm
Quoting mysterio
{quote} Was thinking broadly the same thing man. 1.40 supply has been tested a lot and it is surely time to have a rummage up there for some buy stops. Then we can have a bear party. Maybe we head down to the new 4h demand created below the mid 1.39xx before up Or like you say, 1.40 just rejects again... but I favour the up to 1.41xx first, I think it is time. Short from 1.4150 is almost too perfect. This would create something of a weekly double top and is a strong weekly supply area from a while back. {image}
Similar perspective... Let's how the bastards will play the algo
You can't backtest emotions.
  • #593,680
  • May 8, 2021 3:06pm May 8, 2021 3:06pm
Quoting NotAtrader
{quote} I can help you to add the fundamental part of your prediction. Your technical view almost matches my fundamental view with the small correction that the commodities may not fall as much as you expect or maybe even jump. Here us why: With the military and economic tension between China and Australia growing the US dollar and the oil will get appreciated. This sentiment strengthens by the China’s activity in the South China Sea which increases the the global geopolitical uncertainty and will increase the US dollar, OIL and copper, iron, aluminum...
Thanks for your point of view

I think there are many possible scenarios that can turn the markets, i was supposing about some move from FED...I don't know, maybe some announcement or some comment about tapering...so USD up, and USD up means commodity down

In the next two weeks we have US data about CPI and retail sales, the us bond auctions ( a new high rate can push FED to react), and FOMC (but not the important one). So I was also looking the reasons in those events

But I like also your idea, there are so many tensions around the world. Actually I see AUD, EUR and GBP down (all technical reasons). I don't find yet patterns on USDCAD. So there is some different from what you see. But all theories must be evaluated, so if you have other ideas, please share
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