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Cable Update (GBP/USD) without Idiots 23 replies

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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

Quoting Bones
{quote} 10 year treasury ,Government sell debt in auctions in all time frames. It's supposed to be the as good as cash debt especially the 10 year. Risk free

thanks bro..I wont pretend i understand thou
Quoting Bones
a brave man says thats transitory or maybe someone who has no other choice but to say it {image}
I have a technical target at 5030 (actually the area 4910/5070). The structure since the start of March says that Bulls lost power. Similar sign on Copper. Crude Oil already got the top

So, something is going to happen in the next two weeks. I don't know what about fundamentals. But technical patterns say that commodity and stock are going to be sold and buy on USD

IMHO
Greetings experienced traders

With SNP winning the Scottish election today, who seek Independence, how will this effect GBPUSD this coming week?
Quoting Vincent1
{quote} Timing is not my best, I still need to study a lot to improve... Anyway the two plans are still on the table. This why we all know that Big Boys and locals like false breakouts to place their orders. So, there are a lot of Stop Losses and Buy orders above 1.40 now, and for sure they are looking for break the area and place Sell orders. Usually the high importante of the breakout says that a strong move in the opposite direction is going to happen I still prefer Plan A, since the last area of fight before the down under 1.37 was between 1.4090/1.4175....
Was thinking broadly the same thing man. 1.40 supply has been tested a lot and it is surely time to have a rummage up there for some buy stops. Then we can have a bear party.

Maybe we head down to the new 4h demand created below the mid 1.39xx before up

Or like you say, 1.40 just rejects again... but I favour the up to 1.41xx first, I think it is time. Short from 1.4150 is almost too perfect. This would create something of a weekly double top and is a strong weekly supply area from a while back.

So dream scenario for Monday, some retrace from 1.40 during asia then kaboom, massive long breakout during London/NY. Some kind of ranging/distribution pattern up there maybe. Of course, we go with the price action on the day, no predicting, just a set of scenarios in mind that are either confirmed or invalidated.
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Quoting Vincent1
{quote} I have a technical target at 5030 (actually the area 5010/5070). The structure since the start of March says that Bulls lost power. Similar sign on Copper. Crude Oil already got the top So, something is going to happen in the next two weeks. I don't know what about fundamentals. But technical patterns say that commodity and stock are going to be sold and buy on USD IMHO
I can help you to add the fundamental part of your prediction. Your technical view almost matches my fundamental view with the small correction that the commodities may not fall as much as you expect or maybe even jump.

Here us why:

With the military and economic tension between China and Australia growing the US dollar and the oil will get appreciated. This sentiment strengthens by the China’s activity in the South China Sea which increases the the global geopolitical uncertainty and will increase the US dollar, OIL and copper, iron, aluminum demand.
So USD, CAD, AUD, NOK, OIL will probably get stronger. GBP will fall. EUR is a mix of complicated relations and will probably be ranging.

Just my view. Not a trading advice.
Start with 1000$. Increase by 3% every day. After one year 2 213 314$
Quoting mysterio
{quote} Was thinking broadly the same thing man. 1.40 supply has been tested a lot and it is surely time to have a rummage up there for some buy stops. Then we can have a bear party. Maybe we head down to the new 4h demand created below the mid 1.39xx before up Or like you say, 1.40 just rejects again... but I favour the up to 1.41xx first, I think it is time. Short from 1.4150 is almost too perfect. This would create something of a weekly double top and is a strong weekly supply area from a while back. {image}
Similar perspective... Let's how the bastards will play the algo
You can't backtest emotions.
Quoting NotAtrader
{quote} I can help you to add the fundamental part of your prediction. Your technical view almost matches my fundamental view with the small correction that the commodities may not fall as much as you expect or maybe even jump. Here us why: With the military and economic tension between China and Australia growing the US dollar and the oil will get appreciated. This sentiment strengthens by the China’s activity in the South China Sea which increases the the global geopolitical uncertainty and will increase the US dollar, OIL and copper, iron, aluminum...
Thanks for your point of view

I think there are many possible scenarios that can turn the markets, i was supposing about some move from FED...I don't know, maybe some announcement or some comment about tapering...so USD up, and USD up means commodity down

In the next two weeks we have US data about CPI and retail sales, the us bond auctions ( a new high rate can push FED to react), and FOMC (but not the important one). So I was also looking the reasons in those events

But I like also your idea, there are so many tensions around the world. Actually I see AUD, EUR and GBP down (all technical reasons). I don't find yet patterns on USDCAD. So there is some different from what you see. But all theories must be evaluated, so if you have other ideas, please share
Quoting mysterio
{quote} Was thinking broadly the same thing man. 1.40 supply has been tested a lot and it is surely time to have a rummage up there for some buy stops. Then we can have a bear party. Maybe we head down to the new 4h demand created below the mid 1.39xx before up Or like you say, 1.40 just rejects again... but I favour the up to 1.41xx first, I think it is time. Short from 1.4150 is almost too perfect. This would create something of a weekly double top and is a strong weekly supply area from a while back. {image}
Yea,when I see all those touches, it looks like the market says at Bears: come on, sell and put your stops here...and that's the trap

Day by day the market structure will tell us if 1.4150 is a good area
so ,
This is the market actual expectation V the biased Fed chat....

TECHNICALLY
You're not get the cost of copper back to its original average value of the last 10Y easy ,You have to doubt what you're being told.
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#doyourownanalysisordietryin
This is by far one of the most interesting views I’ve seen. It’s not mine. Just found it and I think it’s worth paying attention to it. All I’m saying is the sone around 1.4000 is where anything can happen.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/GB...R-SMALL-GAINS/

BTW I can see confirmed bearish RSI divergences on M5, M15, M30 and H1 TFs.
On the other hand MACD just turned bullish on H4 TF.

GBPUSD is a complicated pair to trade. I usually avoid to trade this pair but I just got stuck with some short hedges and I have to find a way to solve them.

Not trading advice. Just mine and other’s view.
Start with 1000$. Increase by 3% every day. After one year 2 213 314$
Quoting Vincent1
{quote} Timing is not my best, I still need to study a lot to improve... Anyway the two plans are still on the table. This why we all know that Big Boys and locals like false breakouts to place their orders. So, there are a lot of Stop Losses and Buy orders above 1.40 now, and for sure they are looking for break the area and place Sell orders. Usually the high importante of the breakout says that a strong move in the opposite direction is going to happen I still prefer Plan A, since the last area of fight before the down under 1.37 was between 1.4090/1.4175....
last defend for bear @ 4060/80, coz that the truning point for bear abcd pattern pointing to 3400.

as you pointed out, bull might take all the bear stop just above 4000 before switch to bears.. big boys like retail trader to think break 4000 price will shoot up, but they will push the price down..

rsi H4 at overbought area but there is room go further up on H8.. h4 rsi point 4080 H8 pointing 4181..

For me, i will be watching at 3940/50 and 4060/80 level for possible entry...
Peace Yo!
  • Post #593,692
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  • Edited May 9, 2021 3:29am May 8, 2021 6:37pm | Edited May 9, 2021 3:29am
Quoting Bones
so , This is the market actual expectation V the biased Fed chat.... TECHNICALLY You're not get the cost of copper back to its original average value of the last 10Y easy ,You have to doubt what you're being told. {image} {image} {image}
An important question to ask, is why has the price increased so dramatically?

I know with lumber, they almost shut down production in anticipation of demand shrinking significantly due to the pandemic. But housing continued and they couldn't meet demand.

I would Imagine a similar situation with other raw materials.
Good Vibes - In charts we trust
Pulchra All Time Return: -88.4%
Quoting NotAtrader
GBPUSD is the best pair to trade.
Fixed your quote
Quoting mysterio
{quote} Fixed your quote
Manipulating others’ posts is not a smart way of showing your own preferences. It shows rather a narrow minded and biased person with lack of respect to fellows.

My post stands as it is. Make your own if you want to share something useful with this community.
Start with 1000$. Increase by 3% every day. After one year 2 213 314$
Quoting mysterio
{quote} Was thinking broadly the same thing man. 1.40 supply has been tested a lot and it is surely time to have a rummage up there for some buy stops. Then we can have a bear party. Maybe we head down to the new 4h demand created below the mid 1.39xx before up Or like you say, 1.40 just rejects again... but I favour the up to 1.41xx first, I think it is time. Short from 1.4150 is almost too perfect. This would create something of a weekly double top and is a strong weekly supply area from a while back. So dream scenario for Monday, some retrace...
From what I see here somehow I can’t get the feeling that GBPUSD is the best pair to trade for you. Your post is full of uncertainty, confusion and wishing scenarios. I don’t see the determination of a confident trader who stands by his decisions and who loves what he is doing. So I take your quoting and manipulating my previous post as pure trolling.
Start with 1000$. Increase by 3% every day. After one year 2 213 314$
Anyone have indi which allows to close all trades at the same time? Like close all button
Thanks in andvance!
Quoting Ziemowit
Anyone have indi which allows to close all trades at the same time? Like close all button Thanks in andvance!
Hi. You cannot use indicator for this purpose as indicator programming environment does not allow implementing of trade operations. It should be either script or an EA. The disadvantage of using EA on MT4 is that you are allowed to use only one EA per chart. Anyway you can visit the MQL community and search for the free EA called One Click Close or something like that. This EA will do exactly what you are looking for.
Start with 1000$. Increase by 3% every day. After one year 2 213 314$
Quoting Ziemowit
Anyone have indi which allows to close all trades at the same time? Like close all button Thanks in andvance!
Market > Trade manager 4 lite, but you have to execute it from same to be able to close it all. hope it helps.

Cheers
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Quoting mysterio
{quote} Was thinking broadly the same thing man. 1.40 supply has been tested a lot and it is surely time to have a rummage up there for some buy stops. Then we can have a bear party. Maybe we head down to the new 4h demand created below the mid 1.39xx before up Or like you say, 1.40 just rejects again... but I favour the up to 1.41xx first, I think it is time. Short from 1.4150 is almost too perfect. This would create something of a weekly double top and is a strong weekly supply area from a while back. So dream scenario for Monday, some retrace...
Intraday perspective, for me the first area to watch for any bullish patterns 1.3919-43

DXY has broken a big daily/weekly TL which seems significant, we might see some initial retracement to test the TL, so expectation is for things to start off bearish. 89.68-90.13 is strong daily demand so is worth keeping an eye on for any turnaround on dxy. Obviously, 1.40 is a significant area so blindly buying into here is maybe not the smartest, I prefer to wait for lower for buying.

Going to be watching gilt yields on Monday morning to see how the market is reacting to the election results, this will give a clue as to cable direction (imo, not much has changed fundamentally here, results broadly as expected). The appetite for Scottish independence here is low whilst we're still mired in Covid so it's not on the immediate horizon. Trading plan I posted last weekend was basically buy from 1.38 so congrats if you got in on this action. Will post some trades if I feel confident about what's happening. I gotta come clean though, I was scalp buying into that area I marked as distribution back on the 29th, very luckily got out unscathed. I managed to convince myself that we were cooking up a big bullish move from here, and unfortunately missed that drop (actually managed to profit scalping a buy from 1.39 though on the way down). This is the pitfall of trading what you expect rather than what you see. I think I mentioned that first drop from 1.3930 though on Monday evening.

Any opinions/criticism welcome, I like hearing the other side. I am maybe going against the grain a bit as I know shorting from 1.40 makes sense too and that strategy definitely served me well over the past months. Lets see how things look tomorrow, I'll switch to bearish bias if that's what price is telling me. Possibly 1.4150 is a reach too far but it would be very neat for the channel/ABCD.

I'm also eyeing up a sell on GBPAUD when we get a bit higher up, a nice double top forming. By the looks of it a big move is cooking.

DXY: https://www.tradingview.com/x/2gZ3znXn/

Don't underestimate the daily demand area on dxy as it created an extremely big move with a gap before (end of Feb), and is coming in for its first test. So I think a reaction here is very likely.
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Quoting Ziemowit
Anyone have indi which allows to close all trades at the same time? Like close all button Thanks in andvance!
I made a script to close all trading at once.. you can check in the attachment..

in the attachments are two types of scripts. The CloseAllActive is to Close All Active Order while CloseProfitOnly is to close All Order which is profit or floating Positive.

Please Test it out first by using Demo Account.

DISCLAIMER: USE THIS SCRIPT AT YOUR OWN RISK, I WILL NOT HELD ACCOUNTABLE FOR ANY PROFIT OR LOSS RESULTED FROM USING THIS SCRIPT.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 CloseAllActive.mq4   2 KB | 97 downloads
File Type: mq4 CloseProfitOnly.mq4   2 KB | 97 downloads
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