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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #590,321
  • Edited 4:54am Apr 20, 2021 4:40am | Edited 4:54am
Quoting mtako
{quote} Yeah, and now we are just ranging. I am waiting for volatility on both sides to build up (already there) and drop enough, before I consider going back in. Its good to have a trend momentum strategy or two for these situations. And who knows when its going to end. Yes laugh at me, but I find it is quite an amazing and beautiful river, but only once one is in it! Often takes a lot of work to get a toe in, and let oneself get taken away by the stream. But it is worth it. Am waiting in the for now gentle stream... {image}
Tough one. I have a few tools and tricks up my sleeves and it lets me adapt to market conditions as they change. The breakout scenario we saw yesterday maybe occurs, what, 1% of the time? So I become programmed to view the market in a certain way (ping pong or small markup and markdown) then failed to adapt. Sang Real (and others no doubt) nailed it yesterday just buying the dips, recognised what was happening and adapted, bravo sir. I have tools to deploy to take advantage of that but did not because of an expectation of something that didn't occur. Hindsight, I should have changed tack after the break of 1.3850. Intraday scalpers used to spotting reversals in range bound markets would maybe have struggled. You need to be constantly thinking and adapting for intraday; It can be really profitable if you pick your battles wisely. There was a time last month when this pair was giving me 10-15xR on the regular, every day it seemed. This week is 3xR down, painful but good money management is keeping me above water.

As for now, price action is suggesting more upside for me. But we are in a heavy area of supply that was tested heavily in Feb/March. Just watching the 5m chart is heavily suggesting more upside today.

Quoting Sang.Real
{quote} Hi My Sterio. Wishing you well and hope you sleep well. What are the logic behind this price retrace/pullback and resume. Price moved strongly in ONE way... our virtual averaging opened level after level... a strong movement. ( I use SNR Level in this model) I don't see any meaningful retraces yet.
And to you! Well, logic is no more than buyers can't push price so far in one direction without sellers getting interested and we know there are plenty of sellers around 1.40. And the buyers have plowed through a lot of supply areas so they will be getting weaker, I assume. So it's more about identifying a level to buy lower at or scalp short to. Logic is resuming uptrend after breaking out of a daily channel which marked out our correction period.
  • #590,322
  • Apr 20, 2021 4:42am Apr 20, 2021 4:42am
Quoting Moty
don't use half trend on the 5m chart , too choppy look how it work at the 15 m chart {image}
carefull moty , the price preparing something big move , either down or up , choppy price
"Buy Cheap and Sell Expensive , Its Market Anyways where People Get profit"
  • #590,323
  • Apr 20, 2021 4:45am Apr 20, 2021 4:45am
Quoting Moty
don't use half trend on the 5m chart , too choppy look how it work at the 15 m chart {image}
sub wave 4... target 3920

Will look for long oppotunity this area...
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Peace Yo!
  • #590,324
  • Apr 20, 2021 4:46am Apr 20, 2021 4:46am
Quoting kris89
{quote} carefull moty , the price preparing something big move , either down or up , choppy price
I Find a lot in common with today pa with that past top
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yes yes yes
  • #590,325
  • Apr 20, 2021 4:47am Apr 20, 2021 4:47am
While DXY on the verge of breaking 91.0, cable is struggling to get down.
The overall trend is up but have lost a little momentum with the last 4h candle.

Generally last week I was always on breakout upside when it first time was struggling at 1.38 and then just went down enough to come back.
But to admit that on friday I was as well trapped a bit.
Hopefully we get to 1.3880 today before up.
My observation may be wrong but intent correct. Stay calm!
  • #590,326
  • Apr 20, 2021 4:53am Apr 20, 2021 4:53am
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wait and see
Like me, cuts losses quickly. But has more patience and lets his winn
  • #590,327
  • Apr 20, 2021 5:00am Apr 20, 2021 5:00am
i`ve buy at 1.39750 area , that bouncing ball ranging still in my mind , haha ill see if this time bouncing pass the head
"Buy Cheap and Sell Expensive , Its Market Anyways where People Get profit"
  • #590,328
  • Apr 20, 2021 5:00am Apr 20, 2021 5:00am
5m PA suggesting more upside to me today. I'm looking for a good buying opp to 1.4050
  • #590,329
  • Apr 20, 2021 5:01am Apr 20, 2021 5:01am
We have one top but I am looking for at least a double top after such a big move and maybe a spike for good measure.
If this top is a buying climax (which it may not be) there still needs to be some distribution, a clear failed rally and a test before I consider selling.
Patience is key.
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  • #590,330
  • Apr 20, 2021 5:12am Apr 20, 2021 5:12am
i am waiting for my arrow
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yes yes yes
  • #590,331
  • Apr 20, 2021 5:15am Apr 20, 2021 5:15am
Quoting mysterio
{quote} Tough one. I have a few tools and tricks up my sleeves and it lets me adapt to market conditions as they change. The breakout scenario we saw yesterday maybe occurs, what, 1% of the time? So I become programmed to view the market in a certain way (ping pong or small markup and markdown) then failed to adapt.

Good points. Yes, it is tough to adapt ! And I think our brains are not made to tackle the "unlikely". You remind me one thing I like to repeat to myself to help me with this : "the least likely scenario, is the most sought after".

Of course this is not true! I trade multiple types of strategies and small percentage of my trades have occurred under the rarest conditions.

I often think of price movement as Probability and Improbability dancing . And try to have a bit of both with a balance, like in dancing !

BUT "the least likely scenario, is the most sought after" forces me not to forget to also continually adapt and plan for even the most improbable of situations.

With time I have made them an essential part of my system of strategies because they are an integral part of price movement.

Lets keep on persevering with what we know and adapting to what we learn !


P.S Sang.Real I love this imagery :


Quoting Sang.Real
{quote}I watch the "noise." If you learn to read the "noise" you can have another trading tool attached to your brain. I watch price movement not just because I want pips, but to analysis what storm might be brewing ....... or not. If I read the tea leaves correctly that will mean more pips or at least not losing pips. Meanwhile, I try to scalp myself a bit to get to the target 1.401. Sang Real
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #590,332
  • Apr 20, 2021 5:17am Apr 20, 2021 5:17am
bears need to break 3971 :-)
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #590,333
  • Apr 20, 2021 5:20am Apr 20, 2021 5:20am
pot luck shorts without tp. Per supply created at 85ish
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  • #590,334
  • Apr 20, 2021 5:24am Apr 20, 2021 5:24am
Quoting KiwiTrada
bears need to break 3971 :-)
this is very true. i want to see a bounce form 70 up to 85 then break below. depends on how this hour closes i feel.
  • #590,335
  • Apr 20, 2021 5:25am Apr 20, 2021 5:25am
Quoting mysterio
5m PA suggesting more upside to me today. I'm looking for a good buying opp to 1.4050
15 M TF i see its 1.3900 buy opportunity , price should go there to break super major res
"Buy Cheap and Sell Expensive , Its Market Anyways where People Get profit"
  • #590,336
  • Apr 20, 2021 5:25am Apr 20, 2021 5:25am
Quoting Moty
i am waiting for my arrow {image}
the arrow is here
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yes yes yes
  • #590,337
  • Apr 20, 2021 5:28am Apr 20, 2021 5:28am
Bought, 1.3971
  • #590,338
  • Apr 20, 2021 5:28am Apr 20, 2021 5:28am
Quoting Moty
i am waiting for my arrow {image}
Lagging indicator
  • #590,339
  • Apr 20, 2021 5:29am Apr 20, 2021 5:29am
Quoting goldfish3
{quote} this is very true. i want to see a bounce form 70 up to 85 then break below. depends on how this hour closes i feel.
nope no more bouncing break now!!!
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #590,340
  • Apr 20, 2021 5:32am Apr 20, 2021 5:32am
and im so blank... have no idea ...
Trade with prediction = witch with her visions lol
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