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Stable & safe TREND strategy - 30% to 40% yearly profits

  • #101
  • Dec 27, 2020 8:13am Dec 27, 2020 8:13am
Quoting gepards
Question - should we focus on so long history. The situation in forex in the 2000s was a lot different than now. What is "now"? 1 year? 3 years? 5 years? What do you think about how long history it is ok to consider?
I think this is useless to focus on 10 years. You can use 2020: it was corona, trump, elections, lockdowns, brexit. I have checked tons of charts and I did't found any difference between today and 10 years back. Also there are no difference between EURUSD and BTCUSD (but people say that TA is not working on crypto - that's not true). The only difference is that the movements become smaller because of robots. Just ask yourself if moving average was not moving or was not average? Nope.

But again: you are using static lot size, TP, SL for 10 years. This is nonsense. That approach has no math background. It is luck. You just tune your EA for data. The same like you can check daily high and low and place orders there. And show 1000% stats.
Observer effect
  • #102
  • Dec 27, 2020 8:37am Dec 27, 2020 8:37am
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} I think this is useless to focus on 10 years. You can use 2020: it was corona, trump, elections, lockdowns, brexit. I have checked tons of charts and I did't found any difference between today and 10 years back. Also there are no difference between EURUSD and BTCUSD (but people say that TA is not working on crypto - that's not true). The only difference is that the movements become smaller because of robots. Just ask yourself if moving average was not moving or was not average? Nope. But again: you are using static lot size, TP, SL for 10...

Yes, relying just on historical performance can get you in trouble. That is why learning how to read trends is absolutely critical. If you were Long and that currency/stock is tanking You either stop and reverse or if you're really savvy hedge.

What I did after the March crash was size down and reversed and went Long in April. I wasn't sure if it was just a short squeeze so I hedged that going Short Oil ETF.
It played out very well, but who knows maybe I was just lucky.

My strategy before the elections was to scale down to trading only 5% of my equity, and then I went Long all the way after it was over to a max of 30%.
That has worked great so far.

I will prob stay Long till at least Mid January and then be very defensive February.

As a trader you have to be able to look into the future. That's not easy, but that's what you get paid to do.
  • #103
  • Dec 27, 2020 9:15am Dec 27, 2020 9:15am
Quoting fxmetadroid
{quote}As a trader you have to be able to look into the future. That's not easy, but that's what you get paid to do.
I have another approach. You don't have to predict the future. Don't have to act like a robot. Just create your robot and let it calculate.
I think that you can try to play agains robots only using robots. There is no chance to win playing manually.
But here we have some logical mistake. Here and everywhere people are trying or to act like robots, or they try to program their robot to act like a human. As an example is to let robot run on higher timeframes.

Another thought: it is impossible to detect the start of trend or start of range. So it is impossible to create a robot that will successfully detect the phase. But what robot can do very well and fast? Calculations and positions monitoring. That's why I'm telling gepards not to use static values but use dynamic.

About randomness of market. I think it is not random. Just because we have bankers, investors, funds etc. They are humans. And they use simple rules. No bank trader will buy or sell just because he wants. He will check his manual first.
There was a brilliant thread about 0.25% step for eurusd. Really if you check 0.25-0.5-0.75 etc you will see how the price love them.

As an example I have noticed that EA opened a lot of positions and globally it was in loss. Then it was green. But it didn't close. Why? Because it didn't reach some manually set profit. May be it was 500$ but price was at 499$. So why not to use trailing stop? Why not to check life time of the positions and reduce that accordingly? That will be a robot. That will be logic and math.

So gepards I wish you good luck, you are at the early start )
Observer effect
  • #104
  • Dec 27, 2020 9:33am Dec 27, 2020 9:33am
Quoting ryuryu
Just because we have bankers, investors, funds etc. They are humans. And they use simple rules. No bank trader will buy or sell just because he wants. He will check his manual first.
"For most of the past decade more trades have been done at high frequency by complex algorithms than by humans. Now big banks have their eyes on quantum computing, another cutting-edge technology."
Quantum for quants, "The Economist"

Good luck ;-)
  • #105
  • Dec 27, 2020 2:19pm Dec 27, 2020 2:19pm
Quoting joyny
{quote} Read this sentence "there is money management involved and this can never be accurately predicted"... what is that nonsense? you pretend to be a guru..

I will answer only this one. BT cannot predict THE NOW, as decisions can be made by the trader based on multiple factors.

Out of a sudden, instead of doubling the entry lot from 0.01 to 0.02 to 0.04 to 0.08 to 0.16 ext. ext. every time the account grows three times, every next three months, the operator might decide to follow the following sequence (we are at 0.04 at the moment) 0.01->0.02->0.04->0.05 (instead of 0.08, which will entirely change the course of the account destiny, if by some change unfortunate times are about to pay a visit?!? Or maybe, just stick to the last know lot of 0.04 for the time being?

Got it?

Plus, probably many many many more ways the money management can be influenced, at the time of THE NOW, by the operator. For example, just to move your brain cells a little bit, why increasing the lot size? When... a new pair can be added instead? The operator just got a flash, you know...

I love speaking to someone like you!

You called me a guru. Don't put words in my mouth I have never used... Read my posts, mofo.
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
  • #106
  • Dec 27, 2020 4:32pm Dec 27, 2020 4:32pm
Quoting MoneyZilla
why increasing the lot size? When... a new pair can be added instead?
I would prefer to increase the lot size on a pair/system that I know and that works (!) over risking money on a pair I do not "understand".
Rather use the compound interest effect than playing around.
A wise investment woman (don't remember the name) said something like: "don't mind about the lots, mind about the interests".

What she wanted to express, is that it does not matter whether you trade with 300$ or 3.000.000$ as long as the percentage of the win is okay.
  • #107
  • Dec 27, 2020 5:23pm Dec 27, 2020 5:23pm
Quoting ursinho4711
{quote} I would prefer to increase the lot size on a pair/system that I know and that works (!) over risking money on a pair I do not "understand". Rather use the compound interest effect than playing around.

All pairs and all financial instruments are run by the very same algorithm. They all drive on different gears (slow/fast). This is easily visible by just creating a repeatable condition on two instruments. What you will notice is, lets say it is a breakout, both buy and sell breakouts are close or almost the same in numbers and probably are the same on both instruments/pairs for the very same period of time... I would go after a new pair, as they are presented as uncorrelated () and therefore the overall draw-down and the profitable moments will be different for each pair, thus, highly likely, will get away with little to no draw-down at all...
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
  • #108
  • Edited 4:57am Dec 28, 2020 4:39am | Edited 4:57am
Was thinking and looking at Oracle stock price...

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Then run a simple strategy on various stocks... and here my observations

1. Stocks are better than currency trading.

2. Stocks of solid companies (SP500) mainly trend up

3. Stocks pay dividends (for buy positions)

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4. Better to trade without leverage (1:1) - and it is still possible to aim 30-40% yearly target - here result of simple strategy with Oracle stocks (leverage 1:1)

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5. If some stock go down... ok wait. Never sell it. After some 1-2 years it could come back (for solid companies I mean and not covid impacted sectors and not oil industry and not pharma) - need to figure out a package of stocks which are most stable

6. Then wait for some retrace and go in - wait for 5%- 10% growth and go out. Swaps are about 1.5% yearly. So without leverage, it is possible to hold losing positions very long time and average them out - every 1 week buy additional that stock if it still down

7. As no leverage needed can be used solid brokers that guaranties 100k or more money protection

8. And as we use safe brokers all backed with regulations and money protections, no leverage - then we can treat that account as a saving account and add every month some % of salary here to buy more stocks.

so thats what i think now...
  • #109
  • Dec 28, 2020 6:16am Dec 28, 2020 6:16am
Quoting gepards
Was thinking and looking at Oracle stock price... {image} Then run a simple strategy on various stocks... and here my observations 1. Stocks are better than currency trading. 2. Stocks of solid companies (SP500) mainly trend up 3. Stocks pay dividends (for buy positions) {image} 4. Better to trade without leverage (1:1) - and it is still possible to aim 30-40% yearly target - here result of simple strategy with Oracle stocks (leverage 1:1) {image} 5. If some stock go down... ok wait. Never sell it. After some 1-2 years it could come back (for solid...
Totally agree with most of this and why I've been able to earn consistently and pay the bills. There's clearly an upward bias in equity markets. Even if it's artificially pumped up and propped up with stimulus and Fed intervention, who cares, just ride the trend and grab your profit. All central banks and nations have a vested interest in equities rising,

Be very careful to make bets against them. They have too much money and you'll get killed shorting equities even in the medium term.

Of course you need a large account in some markets, particularly trading Futures, but many trades have a better than 50% chance of profit, even as high as 70% if you're patient .

a consistent 10% gain on your equity a month is very doable. Compounding that , and you easily double your money in 9 months. That's what I've done and will continue to do.

Now I would not buy and hold. Remember we're not investors, we're traders, the less you're exposed, the safer you'll be 40-60 days max , and that depends on volatility.

Forex is still great way to diversify, even throw in some crypto.
  • #110
  • Dec 28, 2020 6:33am Dec 28, 2020 6:33am
Quoting Sesamstrasse
{quote} I´m good, but I donot offer anything. Even not a martingale bot and say it´s "Stable & safe" .. It is totally risky, much more risky than every other trading style. and with these words I´m done.
You can see from his yield curve,There was a reaction. This was a sell out strategy
  • #111
  • Dec 29, 2020 3:29pm Dec 29, 2020 3:29pm
Lets take from DJI30 (blue chip companies) - for example Johnson & Johnson:

Start with 4000 usd after 14 years have 41000 usd. Max dd 25%. Leverage 1:10 (but can be run without leverage too).

Survived the 2008 crisis & covid.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: johnson.png Size: 95 KB

Only BUY when RSI down. Average out every next working day adding 1 more buy - no multiplier. Maximum 24 opened buy orders. Total 1080 trades in 14 years.

Can this be considered as safe and stable setup?
  • #112
  • Dec 30, 2020 1:55pm Dec 30, 2020 1:55pm
You are inspiring me to learn mql5
MTN
  • #113
  • Dec 31, 2020 6:52am Dec 31, 2020 6:52am
Quoting gepards
Lets take from DJI30 (blue chip companies) - for example Johnson & Johnson: Start with 4000 usd after 14 years have 41000 usd. Max dd 25%. Leverage 1:10 (but can be run without leverage too). Survived the 2008 crisis & covid. {image} Only BUY when RSI down. Average out every next working day adding 1 more buy - no multiplier. Maximum 24 opened buy orders. Total 1080 trades in 14 years. Can this be considered as safe and stable setup?

That's quite a while, but certainly yes with leverage you can get to that $40k target way before 14 years.

And even with the crash and the pandemic those 14 years, the volatility is a lot easier to stomach than the wild swings in Forex. $4k is a lot for many who are starting to trade, but what I've learned is the more money you have, the safer trading becomes if you're disciplined.
  • #114
  • Jan 3, 2021 5:09am Jan 3, 2021 5:09am
Look at General Electric stock's bad story... bad (or corruptive?) TOP management can damage so good company. They made bad purchases and investments... and GE was excluded several years ago from DJI30 (but still present in SP500).

So in the longterm, there is no guaranteed anything even in TOP global corporation's performance.

Tested SELL strategy too... there are several stocks that perform quite well on SELL deals too. When RSI > X then SELL. Average out. No multiplier. No more than 3 deals in a series can be found setups.

The next thing which will analyze/backtest is using a hedge between n companies' stocks. When a company has huge dept it performs worse (dive deeper down) in a crisis than a company which debt is smaller. And when the market goes out of the crisis - again companies that have less debt recovery faster.

So SELL weak company and BUY a strong company. Will try that.
  • #115
  • Jan 3, 2021 8:40am Jan 3, 2021 8:40am
no mt4 version ? can you please upload the mt4 version so i can test it. Thanks
  • #116
  • Jan 3, 2021 10:41pm Jan 3, 2021 10:41pm
Quoting PixelSniper
{quote} This. Why not %30-40 a month? These aren't imaginary growth values in leveraged trading. Not here to point out at that this system is bad, but it can be better with couple of applications. Markets are designed to make the poor and ambitious men richer, and make the dumb poorer or broke. We can do better than 30-40%+ a year, let's step up
30-40% a MONTH is clearly, at least to my experience, an arbitrary number.
30-40% a YEAR is really really good. 30-40% a year is hard to achieve, play the long game bro.
Steps to profitability: Collect data, money management, stay bored
  • #117
  • Jan 3, 2021 10:41pm Jan 3, 2021 10:41pm
anyways this is a good thread, i'll be contributing too here
Steps to profitability: Collect data, money management, stay bored
  • #118
  • Jan 3, 2021 10:44pm Jan 3, 2021 10:44pm
Quoting gepards
Meanwhile working on another strategy/EA with the opposite approach. Here we welcome trend (breakout) and ranges are the enemies. But another option is trading on retraces - so ranges are good friends. Here found some stable 11 years working example for GBPUSD: {image} Max drawdown 6500 usd and profit 81603 usd in 11 years. 7835 total deals... intense entries/exits. Profitability ~75% yearly. Here backtest report 11 years: {file} Maybe will start another thread for this strategy.
i wonder, do you take into account the slippage? and do u use spread? if no, need to use commission.

also in which timeframe u use this EA in? cuz below H1 tfs are usually more expose to over-fitting. (which means that backtest result will not be the same as the actual result)
Steps to profitability: Collect data, money management, stay bored
  • #119
  • Jan 4, 2021 3:07am Jan 4, 2021 3:07am
All those charts ale meaningless
  • #120
  • Jan 4, 2021 7:55am Jan 4, 2021 7:55am
Quoting theChamp
no mt4 version ? can you please upload the mt4 version so i can test it. Thanks
dont have MT4 version. MT5 is far better for optimizations/backtests.
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