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Attachments: Stable & safe TREND strategy - 30% to 40% yearly profits
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Stable & safe TREND strategy - 30% to 40% yearly profits

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  • Post #1
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  • First Post: Edited Dec 24, 2020 9:01am Dec 11, 2020 12:57pm | Edited Dec 24, 2020 9:01am
  •  gepards
  • | Joined May 2020 | Status: Member | 102 Posts
See this thread trading results with real money in myfxbook.

Price always goes somewhere - sooner or later. Simple strategy - can be used on a cent account because we need deep pockets here. Min leverage: 1: 500.

Open a cent account with 100 USD capital and you operate with 10000 cents.

Not fantastic earnings - about 30-40% yearly. But which bank you give such %?

Here GBPUSD 11 years backtest - drawdown 7700 usd, profits 37427 usd:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: gbpusd_11years.png
Size: 34 KB


Keep in mind - it survived Brexit... yes drawdown 77%, margin level 155%... but it survived. When running on a live account we can of course avoid trading big events like Brexit.. for more safety.

Here EURUSD 11 years backtest - drawdown 8247 usd, profits 44500 usd:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: eurusd_11years.png
Size: 32 KB


Strategy:

Entry
Wait when the price goes up X pips open BUY. If goes down X pips - open SELL.

Take profit
Close deal on TP Y pips.

Stop-loss - wait... no stop loss :
If the opened deal goes in the opposite direction X pips - open opposite order with twice volume.
If price again turns back and goes X pips - open again order with twice volume.
And so on till price decided where to go finally.

For example, can be this series:

BUY 0.01
SELL 0.02
BUY 0.04
SELL 0.08
BUY 0.16
...

To avoid big series, use X starting from ~40 pips depending on the symbol.

In my example for EURUSD X = 40 pips and TP = 70 pips the worst serie was of 11 opened deals (last order volume 20.48 lots).

In my example, I multiply the TP target by 1.5 on every new level opened - just to get more reward after a big drawdown.

Here backtest detailed reports:

Attached File
File Type: xlsx GBPUSD.xlsx   468 KB | 328 downloads
Attached File
File Type: xlsx EURUSD.xlsx   676 KB | 188 downloads


Here the 1st version for MT5 - usable only for strategy tester for now as we are still in the research phase:

Attached File
File Type: ex5 Tahai_EA_V01_trend.ex5   66 KB | 188 downloads

Here .set files for parameters (timeframe M5):
Attached File
File Type: txt eurusd.txt   2 KB | 139 downloads
Attached File
File Type: txt gbpusd.txt   2 KB | 86 downloads


Here the 2nd version of MT5 - usable only for strategy tester for now as we are still in the research phase:
Attached File
File Type: ex5 Distancer_EA_V01.ex5   67 KB | 137 downloads | Uploaded Dec 13, 2020 10:25am

Here .set files for parameters (timeframe M5):
Attached File
File Type: txt EURUSD_distance_20.txt   2 KB | 96 downloads | Uploaded Dec 13, 2020 10:23am
Attached File
File Type: txt gbpusd_distance_60.txt   2 KB | 73 downloads | Uploaded Dec 13, 2020 10:23am
Price always goes somewhere - sooner or later...
  • Post #2
  • Quote
  • Dec 11, 2020 3:02pm Dec 11, 2020 3:02pm
  •  Arturke
  • Joined Dec 2011 | Status: Member | 500 Posts
very good strategy
1
  • Post #3
  • Quote
  • Dec 11, 2020 8:33pm Dec 11, 2020 8:33pm
  •  RiskFighter
  • Joined Jun 2017 | Status: Pensioned | 149 Posts
Quoting gepards
Disliked
Price always goes somewhere - sooner or later. Simple strategy - can be used on a cent account because we need deep pockets here. Open a cent account with 100 USD capital and you operate with 10000 cents. Not fantastic earnings - about 30-40% yearly. But which bank you give such %? Here GBPUSD 11 years backtest - drawdown 7700 usd, profits 37427 usd: {image} Keep in mind - it survived Brexit... yes drawdown 77%, margin level 155%... but it survived. When running on a live account we can of course avoid trading big events like Brexit.. for more safety....
Ignored
WOW 30-40% a year! And starting with 100$. Let's see - wow that will give you a gain on 40$ after one years trading! Nice.
  • Post #4
  • Quote
  • Dec 11, 2020 10:47pm Dec 11, 2020 10:47pm
  •  PixelSniper
  • | Joined Dec 2020 | Status: Member | 402 Posts | Invisible
Quoting RiskFighter
Disliked
{quote} WOW 30-40% a year! And starting with 100$. Let's see - wow that will give you a gain on 40$ after one years trading! Nice.
Ignored
This.
Why not %30-40 a month? These aren't imaginary growth values in leveraged trading.
Not here to point out at that this system is bad, but it can be better with couple of applications.
Markets are designed to make the poor and ambitious men richer, and make the dumb poorer or broke.
We can do better than 30-40%+ a year, let's step up
  • Post #5
  • Quote
  • Dec 11, 2020 10:58pm Dec 11, 2020 10:58pm
  •  Iceman0995
  • | Joined Nov 2020 | Status: Member | 21 Posts
Quoting PixelSniper
Disliked
{quote} This. Why not %30-40 a month? These aren't imaginary growth values in leveraged trading. Not here to point out at that this system is bad, but it can be better with couple of applications. Markets are designed to make the poor and ambitious men richer, and make the dumb poorer or broke. We can do better than 30-40%+ a year, let's step up
Ignored
Why not let him ride the thread?
Might be useful for a tweak you know
1
  • Post #6
  • Quote
  • Dec 11, 2020 10:59pm Dec 11, 2020 10:59pm
  •  Toppi
  • Joined Jul 2015 | Status: DemoMeister | 150 Posts | Online Now
Put up your "Tahai_EA_V01_trend" so we can take a look
EAT % Return This Year: 12.9%
  • Post #7
  • Quote
  • Dec 12, 2020 12:35am Dec 12, 2020 12:35am
  •  PixelSniper
  • | Joined Dec 2020 | Status: Member | 402 Posts | Invisible
Quoting gepards
Disliked
no stop loss: If the opened deal goes in the opposite direction X pips - open opposite order with twice volume. If price again turns back and goes X pips - open again order with twice volume. And so on till price decided where to go finally. For example, can be this series: BUY 0.01 SELL 0.02 BUY 0.04 SELL 0.08 BUY 0.16 ... {file}{file}
Ignored
A better idea would be stop doubling after couple of consecutive hedge sequences. Doubling up everytime will eventually put you in a position where you don't have enough money to double it again.

Let's say your first 3 trades are 2x, after that it's better to reduce the multiplier to 1.4x's, if you really want to trade risk free.
Doubling up everytime is the real risk..
2
  • Post #8
  • Quote
  • Dec 12, 2020 12:47am Dec 12, 2020 12:47am
  •  Subhranta5
  • | Joined Dec 2020 | Status: Member | 2 Posts
Quoting gepards
Disliked
Price always goes somewhere - sooner or later. Simple strategy - can be used on a cent account because we need deep pockets here. Open a cent account with 100 USD capital and you operate with 10000 cents. Not fantastic earnings - about 30-40% yearly. But which bank you give such %? Here GBPUSD 11 years backtest - drawdown 7700 usd, profits 37427 usd: {image} Keep in mind - it survived Brexit... yes drawdown 77%, margin level 155%... but it survived. When running on a live account we can of course avoid trading big events like Brexit.. for more safety....
Ignored
Can you make an EA for this strategy?
  • Post #9
  • Quote
  • Dec 12, 2020 5:21am Dec 12, 2020 5:21am
  •  gepards
  • | Joined May 2020 | Status: Member | 102 Posts
Quoting PixelSniper
Disliked
{quote} A better idea would be stop doubling after couple of consecutive hedge sequences. Doubling up everytime will eventually put you in a position where you don't have enough money to double it again. Let's say your first 3 trades are 2x, after that it's better to reduce the multiplier to 1.4x's, if you really want to trade risk free. Doubling up everytime is the real risk..
Ignored
yea.. dont like doubling too... will try this approach:

first deal: 0.01 lots
all next deals 0.02 (or 0.03) lots. no more multiply.

in that way, if we had a long ranged market with let's say 12 ups/downs and no clear trend then total opened deals volume will be significantly smaller.
Price always goes somewhere - sooner or later...
  • Post #10
  • Quote
  • Dec 12, 2020 5:53am Dec 12, 2020 5:53am
  •  gepards
  • | Joined May 2020 | Status: Member | 102 Posts
Quoting Toppi
Disliked
Put up your "Tahai_EA_V01_trend" so we can take a look
Ignored
added EA and .set files (.txt) in 1st post.
Price always goes somewhere - sooner or later...
  • Post #11
  • Quote
  • Dec 12, 2020 6:03am Dec 12, 2020 6:03am
  •  gepards
  • | Joined May 2020 | Status: Member | 102 Posts
Quoting RiskFighter
Disliked
{quote} WOW 30-40% a year! And starting with 100$. Let's see - wow that will give you a gain on 40$ after one years trading! Nice.
Ignored
Please give me a link to EA which has at least 10 years of backtesting and is capable of earning 30% every month and which I can test in strategy tester before purchase.
Price always goes somewhere - sooner or later...
1
  • Post #12
  • Quote
  • Dec 12, 2020 6:34am Dec 12, 2020 6:34am
  •  gepards
  • | Joined May 2020 | Status: Member | 102 Posts
Meanwhile working on another strategy/EA with the opposite approach. Here we welcome trend (breakout) and ranges are the enemies. But another option is trading on retraces - so ranges are good friends.

Here found some stable 11 years working example for GBPUSD:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: gbpusd_retrace.png
Size: 29 KB

Max drawdown 6500 usd and profit 81603 usd in 11 years. 7835 total deals... intense entries/exits. Profitability ~75% yearly.

Here backtest report 11 years:

Attached File
File Type: xlsx gbpusd_retrace.xlsx   2.3 MB | 89 downloads

Maybe will start another thread for this strategy.
Price always goes somewhere - sooner or later...
  • Post #13
  • Quote
  • Dec 12, 2020 7:21am Dec 12, 2020 7:21am
  •  Sesamstrasse
  • Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Membership Rewarded | 3,019 Posts
Hmmh..
Nice curve.

and it took me 5 minutes to see it is just a backtest wonder.



Backtestet it looks like it would be a profitable tool.

In real you with a 1:30 ESMA regulated non pro Trading account a margin requirement you had a margincall after 1 year.


4,81 Lot GBP * 1,21Euro


I market some lines..
14.5.2010-- 2,68 lot

18.01.2011 it opened 4,81 lot GU,

30.3.2011 again 2,68 -- then I stopped watching.



Typical martingale Backtestwonder


I can hear you yellin" It is a 1:500-- and ESMA wasn t in 2011"



You better do sometning useful with your money--
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: GBP EUR 13.1.2011.gif
Size: 59 KB
Attached Image
Attached File
File Type: xlsx gbpusd_retrace. martingale backtestwonder.xlsx   2.6 MB | 58 downloads
Risiko birgt immer auch die Chance!!!
  • Post #14
  • Quote
  • Dec 12, 2020 7:26am Dec 12, 2020 7:26am
  •  gepards
  • | Joined May 2020 | Status: Member | 102 Posts
Quoting Sesamstrasse
Disliked
Hmmh.. Nice curve. and it took me 5 minutes to see it is just a backtest wonder. Backtestet it looks like it would be a profitable tool-- In real you with a 1:30 ESMA regulated non pro Trading account a margin requirement you had a margincall after 1 year 4,81 Lot GBP * 1,21euro I market some lines.. 14.5.2010-- 2,68 lot 18.01.2011 it opened 4,81 lot GU, 30.3.2011 again 2,68 -- then I stopped watching. Typical martingale Backtestwonder You better do sometning useful with your money-- {image} {file} {image}
Ignored
use broker with leverage 1:500.
Price always goes somewhere - sooner or later...
  • Post #15
  • Quote
  • Dec 12, 2020 7:33am Dec 12, 2020 7:33am
  •  Sesamstrasse
  • Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Membership Rewarded | 3,019 Posts
Quoting gepards
Disliked
{quote} use broker with leverage 1:500.
Ignored
if you can t make money with 1:10 you do something wrong
Risiko birgt immer auch die Chance!!!
  • Post #16
  • Quote
  • Dec 12, 2020 7:37am Dec 12, 2020 7:37am
  •  gepards
  • | Joined May 2020 | Status: Member | 102 Posts
Quoting Sesamstrasse
Disliked
{quote} if you can t make money with 1:10 you do something wrong
Ignored
If you can make consistent money with 1:500 then do it.
Price always goes somewhere - sooner or later...
  • Post #17
  • Quote
  • Dec 12, 2020 8:01am Dec 12, 2020 8:01am
  •  Sesamstrasse
  • Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Membership Rewarded | 3,019 Posts
Quoting gepards
Disliked
{quote} If you can make consistent money with 1:500 then do it.
Ignored

I´m good, but I donot offer anything.



Even not a martingale bot and say it´s "Stable & safe" ..


It is totally risky, much more risky than every other trading style.



and with these words I´m done.
Risiko birgt immer auch die Chance!!!
  • Post #18
  • Quote
  • Dec 12, 2020 8:04am Dec 12, 2020 8:04am
  •  gepards
  • | Joined May 2020 | Status: Member | 102 Posts
Quoting Sesamstrasse
Disliked
{quote} I´m good, but I donot offer anything. Even not a martingale bot and say it´s "Stable & safe" .. It is totally risky, much more risky than every other trading style. and with these words I´m done.
Ignored
if it worked 11 years - it's not stable and safe? Then what is...
Price always goes somewhere - sooner or later...
1
  • Post #19
  • Quote
  • Dec 12, 2020 8:59am Dec 12, 2020 8:59am
  •  PixelSniper
  • | Joined Dec 2020 | Status: Member | 402 Posts | Invisible
Hedging has worked since the markets existed, you just have to be skilled enough to do it properly, also have the capital or the ability to grow the capital with accurate entries.
2
  • Post #20
  • Quote
  • Edited at 10:05am Dec 12, 2020 9:34am | Edited at 10:05am
  •  MoneyZilla
  • Joined Dec 2015 | Status: Bang_OO_Mango | 2,817 Posts
Hmmm... This looks "interesting". Took it and twisted it in a way a little bit and this thing just popped out.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: Screenshot 2020-12-12 at 16.21.56.png
Size: 587 KB

Annually, if traded only on the Cable, returns around 30% a year.
DRAW-DOWN looks hefty, too. Around 1.5% or so.
SessamStreet won't like that, I am sure. As I don't either...

Still, can be placed on 30 pairs? But then? Just expect an annual return of around 25% per pair on average...

Garbage! Not for me... I am getting outa of here!

p.s. here is what 45 days can damage, too... arrivederci!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: Screenshot 2020-12-12 at 16.58.51.png
Size: 465 KB
IQ 69. Bang_OO_Mango.
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