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Stable & safe TREND strategy - 30% to 40% yearly profits

  • #261
  • Jul 18, 2021 9:23am Jul 18, 2021 9:23am
Quoting hundsbua
{quote} dear gepard interesting results. quetion about drawdown times : do they occur on different time slots if you run this "similiar" teck stocks? Would it be a good idea to combine different kind of stocks? Best hundsbua
Good question! If NQ100 index crashes then all tech most likely will crash. Will consolidate all 3 backtests in 1 Excel and inform how about total drawdown. At this moment I run them each on separate account.

Yes better use different sectors stocks. But which? Pharma is quite risky... because of their business model. Oil... risky. hmm.. maybe renewable energies? or maybe choose some ETFs? but they cant be traded on RoboForex (only with R Trader which I dont know) or Darwinex.. (again special account needed min 10k as I understand). Admiral recently again made changes... now only Cyprys regulation. FCA regulation only for legal persons starting from August.

What stocks you could consider to diversify risks and not go only in tech?
  • #262
  • Edited 11:46am Jul 19, 2021 11:32am | Edited 11:46am
Quoting gepards
Will try to contact some of the most profitable if they have a thread/journal. I do not write private messages...
Started to investigate our FF TOP traders. From TOP10 only 1 has a trading journal/thread. Interesting? Maybe "trade more, talk less" is the key ?

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Here next 12 traders - nobody has a thread:

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Here will fix TOP traders with threads - will ask them in their threads if they are interested to post something here.

rammin

From 22 TOP FF 2021 traders, only 1 has a thread. As saw in their profiles nobody is an active poster.. yes some posts here and there...

Most of them use averaging EAs and most of them have huge drawdown (almost lost account). Then recovered this year. And therefore in TOP traders.
  • #263
  • Jul 19, 2021 4:32pm Jul 19, 2021 4:32pm
Geopards. Thank you for this thread.
I'm currently trying to make my own EAs e testing them in demo accounts.
Having threads like this helps a lot because people can share ideas.

I wanted to ask something. I've noticed that at least for me most my ideas for bots do amazingly well only after the year 2020, and from a quick google search apparently some brockers had a 200% increase in traders. Do you think that COVID pushed more people to look into trading and watching trading strategy videos on youtube will actually make bots with the same strategies more profitable?
  • #264
  • Jul 20, 2021 2:02am Jul 20, 2021 2:02am
Quoting Kalevra
Geopards. Thank you for this thread. I'm currently trying to make my own EAs e testing them in demo accounts. Having threads like this helps a lot because people can share ideas. I wanted to ask something. I've noticed that at least for me most my ideas for bots do amazingly well only after the year 2020, and from a quick google search apparently some brockers had a 200% increase in traders. Do you think that COVID pushed more people to look into trading and watching trading strategy videos on youtube will actually make bots with the same strategies...
Very good question! Your mindset works well

You know... I don't know.. but that's no problem. It is essential to ask questions even if no answer is possible. This is a good state of mind to observe and ask questions.

I also think how long history to consider for optimizations/backtests... 20 yesrs? 10 years? 5 years? 1 year? Markets changes... more doubts exists because of social platforms, fake news etc what was not an issue 20 years ago. Trump, Musk has twitter to manipulate markets... It should be different than 20 years ago. Prices can be more choppy like 20 years ago.

Continue observations and maybe develop some EA just to analyze historical data - measure ADRs or distributions how long can go price without 10 pips retrace etc Compare by years. See some patterns in markets behavior.
  • #265
  • Jul 20, 2021 10:51am Jul 20, 2021 10:51am
Quoting reteid2222
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DOIwLjKA15E Helpful video which shows from my point of view best strategy analyzer on youtube some improvents.. period 8 and setting a very large sl… hope this helps for the strategy
Good video Right approach talking. Avoid overoptimization.
  • #266
  • Jul 20, 2021 2:33pm Jul 20, 2021 2:33pm
Quoting gepards
{quote} Continue observations and maybe develop some EA just to analyze historical data - measure ADRs or distributions how long can go price without 10 pips retrace etc Compare by years. See some patterns in markets behavior.
Another question if you don't mind.
At the moment i'm developing my bots in fxdreema (a node base system that doesn't require to know code). If i wanted to dive deep into making more complicated bots what would be the right direction to look at? MQL5?

As you can see i'm a complete nood but i have a lot of ideas to test out
  • #267
  • Jul 20, 2021 2:52pm Jul 20, 2021 2:52pm
Quoting Kalevra
{quote} Another question if you don't mind. At the moment i'm developing my bots in fxdreema (a node base system that doesn't require to know code). If i wanted to dive deep into making more complicated bots what would be the right direction to look at? MQL5? As you can see i'm a complete nood but i have a lot of ideas to test out
I code MQL5.

But there exist other alternatives too for example CTrader based on C# language if you are familiar with Microsoft .NET c# then a good choice. Then there exist brokers which provide RESTfull APIs - so you can code in any language with them.
  • #268
  • Jul 20, 2021 2:54pm Jul 20, 2021 2:54pm
Quoting gepards
{quote} I code MQL5. But there exist other alternatives too for example CTrader based on C# language if you are familiar with Microsoft .NET c# then a good choice. Then there exist brokers which provide RESTfull APIs - so you can code in any language with them.
I'm not familiar with any coding language. So i guess MQL5 will be best for me to start learning

Thank you for your time
  • #269
  • Edited 3:41pm Jul 22, 2021 3:00pm | Edited 3:41pm
By mistake manually shorted Tesla on MSFT by the dips account. Lesson here: set EAs accounts on mobile only with investor password (read only mode).

The deal was profitable but now history is damaged - 1 ugly deal. Shit happens

Maybe can rename the account to "MSFT buy the dips and TSLA shorts"...

Anyway, I'm not the only one who thinks Tesla must go deep down:

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This is from Tesla official report:

Quote
As of March 31, 2021, we and our subsidiaries had outstanding $9.52 billion in aggregate principal amount of indebtedness (see Note 10, Debt, to the consolidated financial statements included elsewhere in this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q). Our consolidated indebtedness may increase our vulnerability to any generally adverse economic and industry conditions

Next earnings report after 4 day on 26 July, 2021. Usually TSLA drops about 3% on earnings day. Think all that see so it's quite safe to go short now. Target -7% next week.

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  • #270
  • Jul 29, 2021 4:09pm Jul 29, 2021 4:09pm
Put on live again one hedge setup for indexes trading - using averaging and using SL.

BUY - USTECHCash
SELL - JP225Cash

Here 3 years results:

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Like hedging a lot - no matter if stocks crash, the strategy could perform well.

Here example of some TP (4% of account) trades series where averaging + hedge is used:

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Here SL (6% of account) example:

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The leverage here 1:100.
  • #271
  • Oct 28, 2021 7:19am Oct 28, 2021 7:19am
Quoting gepards
{quote} Well seems this strategy is awesome.... Take for example #MSFT, need 2000 usd starting capital, buy 0.7 lots every 12 days no matter what... do not care about anything. Just BUY and hold forever! And scale as equity grow - open next deals with more volume as you have more money in equity. If started from 2010... with 2000 USD in 2021 on account would have 115000 USD. Here it is backtested result (not precise data but we don't need here ticks..): {image} Who needs all those charts, lines, indicators bla bla bla strategies for entry for an...
Nice strategy.
Can you please suggest 5 stocks that I want to acquire through selling of puts rather than directly buying stocks?
I have never traded stocks but like your strategy.
Practice makes a person perfect
  • #272
  • Oct 28, 2021 7:25am Oct 28, 2021 7:25am
I would use IB's scale trader for trading put sells linked to the price of the stocks.
When stocks decrease, put sells will be sold automatically by the scale trader.
I have been trading DAX index using scale trader with no strategy and making money consistently.
Scale trader suits persons with somewhat deep pockets and a stable money psychology.
https://www.interactivebrokers.com/e...p=description2
Practice makes a person perfect
  • #273
  • Oct 29, 2021 9:34am Oct 29, 2021 9:34am
Quoting simnz
{quote} Nice strategy. Can you please suggest 5 stocks that I want to acquire through selling of puts rather than directly buying stocks? I have never traded stocks but like your strategy.
MSFT
AAPL
CRM
DOCU
VZ (yes it is now down - but G5 is the future)
  • #274
  • Oct 30, 2021 5:49am Oct 30, 2021 5:49am
Quoting gepards
{quote} MSFT AAPL CRM DOCU VZ (yes it is now down - but G5 is the future)
Which MT4 broker offers these stocks as CFDs?
Practice makes a person perfect
  • #275
  • Oct 30, 2021 6:31am Oct 30, 2021 6:31am
Quoting simnz
{quote} Which MT4 broker offers these stocks as CFDs?
Roboforex
AdmiralMarkets
Darwinex

Darwinex seems the best choise, FCA regulated, low swap % for stocks (~2.5% yearly).
  • #276
  • Nov 4, 2021 11:46am Nov 4, 2021 11:46am
Quoting gepards
{quote} MSFT AAPL CRM DOCU VZ (yes it is now down - but G5 is the future)
would add to this list FB.. even nobody likes M. Zuckerberg. But his ambition is to build MetaVerse (virtual Universe) like in the movie "Ready player one". Virtual reality is trendy.
  • #277
  • Edited 9:06am Aug 3, 2022 8:48am | Edited 9:06am
Hey!

Was out for a while... robots meanwhile were working on autopilot...

So here resume for 22 months of trading.. of the entire portfolio of 12 accounts which is available in myfxbook

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As here can be seen I have 2 superstars EAs.. some 5 total fails (wipeouts)... 1 good (37% profits). and the rest 4 are compensating on zero.

Conclusion...

1. SP500 average yearly return 10% is beaten with my portfolio ~26% average yearly return
2. Diversify. Never rely on 1 strategy, 1 symbol or 1 account - this worked for me
3. Learned that averaging/martingale is really not the option - I know i know.."we told you" ... but now I really know

I'm still at beginning of my journey. I will put more focus on stocks. Setups with 1-2 trades per month.
  • #278
  • Aug 7, 2022 3:08am Aug 7, 2022 3:08am
Quoting gepards
Put on live again one hedge setup for indexes trading - using averaging and using SL. BUY - USTECHCash SELL - JP225
Hello! Do you think this approach is still relevant today?
  • #279
  • Aug 21, 2022 1:21am Aug 21, 2022 1:21am
Quoting maverick666
{quote} Hello! Do you think this approach is still relevant today?
it is not holly grail anyway. you can see 1 my account MSFT with averaging and using SL... still it had 3 SL in a row and the account had 60% dd - closed.

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But there is another averaging account that is still performing (2 setups on 1 account running - GBPUSD and EURGBP):

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If we take only EURGBP then the results are ammaizing:

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DD was 68 usd and profits in 22 months 287 usd. Here this setup can be executed with a start capital 200 usd, you would experience 34% dd which is acceptable and get in 22 months 143% profits.

Never ever put all money in 1 account and 1 setup.. have at least 10 setups/accounts in parallel and with various strategies and symbols traded.

Diversify. Calculate everything so that you can earn about 20-30% from 10 accounts portfolio. You never know which setup will succeed and which fail. But as I see starting from 10 parallel setups - it is fine. The entire portfolio can generate consistent profits year by year. Ok this is not "get rich fast"... but you can use compounding and in 20 years earn solid capital. Every year prepare various new setups (to replace losers)...

For example, this account I have 40 running EAs for EURUSD... 40 paralel setups. Some win some lose.. here you see the results so far for 1 year:

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Bottom line what I try to explain - diversify and make portfolios of setups.

Have seen recently some scam video promoting a "magic strategy" and they said that "diversifying is needed when you dont know the scope you are operating in - so it is for blind/stupid traders who do not understand much about markets"... you see "gurus"... "we know. trust us"..

Regular traders don't have info that has whales... therefore massive diversification is must-have tool for small traders.
  • #280
  • Last Post: Nov 19, 2022 4:02am Nov 19, 2022 4:02am
Quoting gepards
{quote} EA survived that good... 11 years optimization picked up the best of best setup which survived 11 years. It use for GBPUSD 45 pips step - so 450 pips GAP was handled ok. See here audited that situation with a real money account (cent but anyway real). {quote} Good point. Therefore looking for optimizations setups where max deal volume no more than 2 lots. Then it is scalable at least 10x (possible to make from 1000 usd capital 10000 usd). The virtual trading feature...
And it goes good

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very rare entries but highly profitable.

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