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Stable & safe TREND strategy - 30% to 40% yearly profits

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Feb 11, 2021 1:36pm Dec 11, 2020 11:57am | Edited Feb 11, 2021 1:36pm
See this thread trading results with real money in myfxbook.

Price always goes somewhere - sooner or later - but as you can see with many TOP companies stocks - it goes UP.

Strategy:

Enter BUY when RSI oversold (depending on the stock - from 10 to 40, period 5). Any timeframe starting from M15.

Choose stable and good outfit stocks that can go UP in the longterm - you can use this tool to choose the best candidates.

SL - no stop loss. Wait.

TP - close when RSI overbought (depending on the stock - from 60 to 80, period 5).

History of this thread:

It all started with currencies and averaging/martingale long-term strategies - 5 setups with averaging running in myfxbook portfolio and 1 with virtual averaging and standard SL/TP approach.

But now focus on stocks - starting from this post mainly focus on stocks.

My current portfolio of small companies stocks and why:

#SEAC - software, they looking for new CEO, 182 employees in IT industry is good. Maybe someone could buy that team + subscribers of their services or they will get good new CEO. The online video platform they provide is ok. They don't have debts. Insiders own 25%. Analytics give a good target price 2.00 usd. Entered at 1.34 usd

#PFIE - services for gas & oil companies in US and I bet on covid situation improvement and gas&oil demand increase. They don't have debts. Analytics give a good target price 1.83 usd. Entered at 1.15 usd

#MYSZ - software, attracted investments 2 mil usd month ago, have an app for online shopping which helps to get the right size of dress to purchase. Covid and post-covid life will push more and more online shopping. This app is a good solution for that. Entered at 1.79 usd
  • #2
  • Dec 11, 2020 2:02pm Dec 11, 2020 2:02pm
very good strategy
  • #3
  • Dec 11, 2020 7:33pm Dec 11, 2020 7:33pm
Quoting gepards
Price always goes somewhere - sooner or later. Simple strategy - can be used on a cent account because we need deep pockets here. Open a cent account with 100 USD capital and you operate with 10000 cents. Not fantastic earnings - about 30-40% yearly. But which bank you give such %? Here GBPUSD 11 years backtest - drawdown 7700 usd, profits 37427 usd: {image} Keep in mind - it survived Brexit... yes drawdown 77%, margin level 155%... but it survived. When running on a live account we can of course avoid trading big events like Brexit.. for more safety....
WOW 30-40% a year! And starting with 100$. Let's see - wow that will give you a gain on 40$ after one years trading! Nice.
MetaTrader 4 - so many advantages.
  • #4
  • Dec 11, 2020 9:47pm Dec 11, 2020 9:47pm
Quoting RiskFighter
{quote} WOW 30-40% a year! And starting with 100$. Let's see - wow that will give you a gain on 40$ after one years trading! Nice.
This.
Why not %30-40 a month? These aren't imaginary growth values in leveraged trading.
Not here to point out at that this system is bad, but it can be better with couple of applications.
Markets are designed to make the poor and ambitious men richer, and make the dumb poorer or broke.
We can do better than 30-40%+ a year, let's step up
  • #5
  • Dec 11, 2020 9:58pm Dec 11, 2020 9:58pm
Quoting PixelSniper
{quote} This. Why not %30-40 a month? These aren't imaginary growth values in leveraged trading. Not here to point out at that this system is bad, but it can be better with couple of applications. Markets are designed to make the poor and ambitious men richer, and make the dumb poorer or broke. We can do better than 30-40%+ a year, let's step up
Why not let him ride the thread?
Might be useful for a tweak you know
  • #6
  • Dec 11, 2020 9:59pm Dec 11, 2020 9:59pm
Put up your "Tahai_EA_V01_trend" so we can take a look
  • #7
  • Dec 11, 2020 11:35pm Dec 11, 2020 11:35pm
Quoting gepards
no stop loss: If the opened deal goes in the opposite direction X pips - open opposite order with twice volume. If price again turns back and goes X pips - open again order with twice volume. And so on till price decided where to go finally. For example, can be this series: BUY 0.01 SELL 0.02 BUY 0.04 SELL 0.08 BUY 0.16 ... {file}{file}
A better idea would be stop doubling after couple of consecutive hedge sequences. Doubling up everytime will eventually put you in a position where you don't have enough money to double it again.

Let's say your first 3 trades are 2x, after that it's better to reduce the multiplier to 1.4x's, if you really want to trade risk free.
Doubling up everytime is the real risk..
  • #8
  • Dec 11, 2020 11:47pm Dec 11, 2020 11:47pm
Quoting gepards
Price always goes somewhere - sooner or later. Simple strategy - can be used on a cent account because we need deep pockets here. Open a cent account with 100 USD capital and you operate with 10000 cents. Not fantastic earnings - about 30-40% yearly. But which bank you give such %? Here GBPUSD 11 years backtest - drawdown 7700 usd, profits 37427 usd: {image} Keep in mind - it survived Brexit... yes drawdown 77%, margin level 155%... but it survived. When running on a live account we can of course avoid trading big events like Brexit.. for more safety....
Can you make an EA for this strategy?
  • #9
  • Dec 12, 2020 4:21am Dec 12, 2020 4:21am
Quoting PixelSniper
{quote} A better idea would be stop doubling after couple of consecutive hedge sequences. Doubling up everytime will eventually put you in a position where you don't have enough money to double it again. Let's say your first 3 trades are 2x, after that it's better to reduce the multiplier to 1.4x's, if you really want to trade risk free. Doubling up everytime is the real risk..
yea.. dont like doubling too... will try this approach:

first deal: 0.01 lots
all next deals 0.02 (or 0.03) lots. no more multiply.

in that way, if we had a long ranged market with let's say 12 ups/downs and no clear trend then total opened deals volume will be significantly smaller.
  • #10
  • Dec 12, 2020 4:53am Dec 12, 2020 4:53am
Quoting Toppi
Put up your "Tahai_EA_V01_trend" so we can take a look
added EA and .set files (.txt) in 1st post.
  • #11
  • Dec 12, 2020 5:03am Dec 12, 2020 5:03am
Quoting RiskFighter
{quote} WOW 30-40% a year! And starting with 100$. Let's see - wow that will give you a gain on 40$ after one years trading! Nice.
Please give me a link to EA which has at least 10 years of backtesting and is capable of earning 30% every month and which I can test in strategy tester before purchase.
  • #12
  • Dec 12, 2020 5:34am Dec 12, 2020 5:34am
Meanwhile working on another strategy/EA with the opposite approach. Here we welcome trend (breakout) and ranges are the enemies. But another option is trading on retraces - so ranges are good friends.

Here found some stable 11 years working example for GBPUSD:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd_retrace.png Size: 29 KB

Max drawdown 6500 usd and profit 81603 usd in 11 years. 7835 total deals... intense entries/exits. Profitability ~75% yearly.

Here backtest report 11 years:

Attached File(s)
File Type: xlsx gbpusd_retrace.xlsx   2.3 MB | 746 downloads

Maybe will start another thread for this strategy.
  • #13
  • Dec 12, 2020 6:21am Dec 12, 2020 6:21am
Hmmh..
Nice curve.

and it took me 5 minutes to see it is just a backtest wonder.



Backtestet it looks like it would be a profitable tool.

In real you with a 1:30 ESMA regulated non pro Trading account a margin requirement you had a margincall after 1 year.


4,81 Lot GBP * 1,21Euro


I market some lines..
14.5.2010-- 2,68 lot

18.01.2011 it opened 4,81 lot GU,

30.3.2011 again 2,68 -- then I stopped watching.



Typical martingale Backtestwonder


I can hear you yellin" It is a 1:500-- and ESMA wasn t in 2011"



You better do sometning useful with your money--
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBP EUR 13.1.2011.gif Size: 59 KB
Attached Image
Attached File(s)
File Type: xlsx gbpusd_retrace. martingale backtestwonder.xlsx   2.6 MB | 546 downloads
Risiko birgt immer auch die Chance.
  • #14
  • Dec 12, 2020 6:26am Dec 12, 2020 6:26am
Quoting Sesamstrasse
Hmmh.. Nice curve. and it took me 5 minutes to see it is just a backtest wonder. Backtestet it looks like it would be a profitable tool-- In real you with a 1:30 ESMA regulated non pro Trading account a margin requirement you had a margincall after 1 year 4,81 Lot GBP * 1,21euro I market some lines.. 14.5.2010-- 2,68 lot 18.01.2011 it opened 4,81 lot GU, 30.3.2011 again 2,68 -- then I stopped watching. Typical martingale Backtestwonder You better do sometning useful with your money-- {image} {file} {image}
use broker with leverage 1:500.
  • #15
  • Dec 12, 2020 6:33am Dec 12, 2020 6:33am
Quoting gepards
{quote} use broker with leverage 1:500.
if you can t make money with 1:10 you do something wrong
Risiko birgt immer auch die Chance.
  • #16
  • Dec 12, 2020 6:37am Dec 12, 2020 6:37am
Quoting Sesamstrasse
{quote} if you can t make money with 1:10 you do something wrong
If you can make consistent money with 1:500 then do it.
  • #17
  • Dec 12, 2020 7:01am Dec 12, 2020 7:01am
Quoting gepards
{quote} If you can make consistent money with 1:500 then do it.

I´m good, but I donot offer anything.



Even not a martingale bot and say it´s "Stable & safe" ..


It is totally risky, much more risky than every other trading style.



and with these words I´m done.
Risiko birgt immer auch die Chance.
  • #18
  • Dec 12, 2020 7:04am Dec 12, 2020 7:04am
Quoting Sesamstrasse
{quote} I´m good, but I donot offer anything. Even not a martingale bot and say it´s "Stable & safe" .. It is totally risky, much more risky than every other trading style. and with these words I´m done.
if it worked 11 years - it's not stable and safe? Then what is...
  • #19
  • Dec 12, 2020 7:59am Dec 12, 2020 7:59am
Hedging has worked since the markets existed, you just have to be skilled enough to do it properly, also have the capital or the ability to grow the capital with accurate entries.
  • #20
  • Edited 9:05am Dec 12, 2020 8:34am | Edited 9:05am
Hmmm... This looks "interesting". Took it and twisted it in a way a little bit and this thing just popped out.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot 2020-12-12 at 16.21.56.png Size: 587 KB

Annually, if traded only on the Cable, returns around 30% a year.
DRAW-DOWN looks hefty, too. Around 1.5% or so.
SessamStreet won't like that, I am sure. As I don't either...

Still, can be placed on 30 pairs? But then? Just expect an annual return of around 25% per pair on average...

Garbage! Not for me... I am getting outa of here!

p.s. here is what 45 days can damage, too... arrivederci!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot 2020-12-12 at 16.58.51.png Size: 465 KB
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
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