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Attachments: Stable & safe TREND strategy - 30% to 40% yearly profits
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Stable & safe TREND strategy - 30% to 40% yearly profits

  • Post #81
  • Quote
  • Edited 8:59am Dec 24, 2020 8:42am | Edited 8:59am
Quoting ryuryu
5. You have to manage daily open wide spreads. They can wipe you out (check 2 days ago -450p gap on gbpusd). 6. Keep in mind that brokers have limits for max lot size and max lots. For example it is 100 lot and 100 lots. So if you reach the limit there will be no room anymore.
EA survived that good... 11 years optimization picked up the best of best setup which survived 11 years. It use for GBPUSD 45 pips step - so 450 pips GAP was handled ok. See here audited that situation with a real money account (cent but anyway real).

Quoting ryuryu
6. Keep in mind that brokers have limits for max lot size and max lots. For example, it is 100 lot and 100 lots. So if you reach the limit there will be no room anymore.
Good point. Therefore looking for optimizations setups where max deal volume no more than 2 lots. Then it is scalable at least 10x (possible to make from 1000 usd capital 10000 usd).

The virtual trading feature is the best option here - because it can be scalable 10000 times. No volume raising used at all but few deals.. about 30 deals per year. Added that account too to myfxbook.

About all averaging cent accounts... I am just curious... if setup worked 11 years... is that a stable pattern? Let's see after ~1 year how it goes.
  • Post #82
  • Quote
  • Edited 2:34pm Dec 26, 2020 2:23pm | Edited 2:34pm
New version for averaging - with protective SL and here slightly different algorithm too

What I saw with optimizations - optimized 2010 - 2020. Then run on 2000 - 2020 (unknown past - the same as an unknown future-forward test). And noticed that the best optimizations failed on past data... it indicates overoptimization.

So picked up not the best but medium results from 2010 - 2020 and run on 2000 - 2020 - it survived. 20 years averaging setup which survives. Can we treat such a setup as safe and stable or not? 20 years...


Attached File(s)
File Type: xlsx GBPUSD_2000_stable.xlsx   1.5 MB | 269 downloads

Attached File(s)
File Type: ex5 Tahai_EA_V10_common_rise.ex5   71 KB | 316 downloads
Attached File(s)
File Type: txt gbpusd_stable_2000_set.txt   2 KB | 272 downloads

Protective SL now allows us to run n setups on 1 account and limit losses just in case if some setup totally fails.

Now will optimize 2000 - 2010 and then forwardtest 2010 - now to see most stable and not overoptimized setups.
Here example what happens when overoptimized - backward 2000 - 2010 fails (but not wipe out the account because of protective SL):

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: overoptimized_past_fails.png Size: 36 KB

It does not matter if we optimize 2010 - 2020 and then run backward on 2000 - 2010 (unknown past) or we optimize 2000 - 2010 and run forward on 2010 - 2020 (unknown future). In both cases, EA has to deal with unknown data. That's real-life simulation.
No matter what kind of EA on backtest: it depends totally on the time when you start trading. Minutes can already decide over being killed or survive.
There are so many situations that can blow an unprotected account within hours when you enter at the wrong moment. Can be a matter of minutes.
I had a setup for my grid-trader and tried a setup on backtest (USDCAD). Looked great. Then I started on demo last Friday, gap over the weekend and a steady rise on Monday that blew the margin. Later it went back to normal but margin close would have blown my real account. The rest of the week the EA behaved well...
I have to remind you that this hedging strategy does curves like this one, regardless of the market conditions... Not each hedging batch ends profitable, but the curve goes North and there is nothing known or unknown to stop it.

Only Swiss Bank alike events, from 15 Jan 2015 I think, could possibly damage it (won't kill the account, as risk is minimal anyway, flat 0.01 lot here)...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot 2020-12-27 at 0.21.24.png Size: 1.1 MB
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
Quoting MoneyZilla
I have to remind you that this hedging strategy does curves like this one, regardless of the market conditions... Not each hedging batch ends profitable, but the curve goes North and there is nothing known or unknown to stop it. Only Swiss Bank alike events, from 15 Jan 2015 I think, could possibly damage it (won't kill the account, as risk is minimal anyway, flat 0.01 lot here)... {image}
3 months is to small history.. at least 3 years needed - lets say starting from 2017 how it looks?
Quoting ursinho4711
No matter what kind of EA on backtest: it depends totally on the time when you start trading. Minutes can already decide over being killed or survive. There are so many situations that can blow an unprotected account within hours when you enter at the wrong moment. Can be a matter of minutes. I had a setup for my grid-trader and tried a setup on backtest (USDCAD). Looked great. Then I started on demo last Friday, gap over the weekend and a steady rise on Monday that blew the margin. Later it went back to normal but margin close would have blown...
You are right..

And here comes the question... forex is a dangerous place with money to be. That's the fact. Maybe nothing long-term is possible...? And here another strategy... short-term but highly profitable. 100% weekly or daily profits. Let's say go extreme. And then double volume.

For example split 1000 usd capital to 20 parts (50 usd). Charge account with 50 usd. Try to make 50 usd profits (total 100 usd) Then double initial volume - make total 200. Then make total 400 - cashout 350. Restart again with 50 usd. Something like that.

As we see any risky strategy here can be used then. Risky strategies could work for some time of period. Need to backtest that approach..
Quoting gepards
{quote} 3 months is to small history.. at least 3 years needed - lets say starting from 2017 how it looks?

Let me ask you a question:

Have you already hold a money maker strategy in your hands, so you know exactly how much of a data is required to seal it as working?

Just think about that?

I am running quite profitable business. 20+ years already. And if I asked your question back in 1999? I would still live in the misery I was at that time...

Things are not working this way, as you want them, as there is money management involved and this can never be accurately predicted, as THE NOW decides how this all will end, eventually.

Speaking of trend trading? Just pass a dead hard range period. The rest is (not simple) money management. Take losses when you have to. Just move North. Never stop moving North. This is how I do my money and trading is just extra hard, when compared to business, but I have learned how to handle it...
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
All I am saying is, while you are wondering how to nail 20 yrs of testing and seal it for the next 20 years? You are missing it big on THE NOW. There are chances. Some are really big ones. For 4-5 yrs in a row, you might kill it! Even if it is not perfect! But how you will handle the money? Well, that is really the hard part, as you continue thinking you will grow forever? Good luck! I hope you understand what I mean...

This strategy is a killer already. But you are far from this moment with her...

Speaking of money management, there is a point, where, even not perfect, the account becomes indestructible. This is what you will miss, while searching for whatever years long pass...
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
MoneyZilla is right. Money management is the key.

BTW topic named as "... trend strategy". But this is not a trend strategy. It is averaging against the trend.
btw try to use 1 multiplier. It is much safer but results will be the same. And try to open random. Everything will be the same too. That's because "good" entry with tiny lot size will not give you profit. All your profit comes from averaging. So there is no need to use any indicator or whatever to find "good" entry. Just open the trade randomly and start to average it if it goes opposite.
Observer effect
Quoting MoneyZilla
{quote} Let me ask you a question: Have you already hold a money maker strategy in your hands, so you know exactly how much of a data is required to seal it as working? Just think about that? I am running quite profitable business. 20+ years already. And if I asked your question back in 1999? I would still live in the misery I was at that time... Things are not working this way, as you want them, as there is money management involved and this can never be accurately predicted, as THE NOW decides how this all will end, eventually. Speaking of trend...
Bro i need you to mentor me, i think i am almost thinking in same dimension as you, WOW
Quoting ryuryu
MoneyZilla is right. Money management is the key. BTW topic named as "... trend strategy". But this is not a trend strategy. It is averaging against the trend. btw try to use 1 multiplier. It is much safer but results will be the same. And try to open random. Everything will be the same too. That's because "good" entry with tiny lot size will not give you profit. All your profit comes from averaging. So there is no need to use any indicator or whatever to find "good" entry. Just open the trade randomly and start to average it if it goes opposite....

I saw he placed counter movement trades and start wondering why, when in the description he speaks about opening both buys and sells?!?

In a trend, the averaging works only in the trend's direction. Not wise to average down the countertrend, as the best the CT grid gets is to break even or very small profit. Eventually the so long waited CT profit will appear at the time when the trend is cooling down... By then the account might be long gone.
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
Quoting MoneyZilla
{quote} Let me ask you a question: Have you already hold a money maker strategy in your hands, so you know exactly how much of a data is required to seal it as working? Just think about that? I am running quite profitable business. 20+ years already. And if I asked your question back in 1999? I would still live in the misery I was at that time... Things are not working this way, as you want them, as there is money management involved and this can never be accurately predicted, as THE NOW decides how this all will end, eventually. Speaking of trend...
Read this sentence "there is money management involved and this can never be accurately predicted"... what is that nonsense? you pretend to be a guru and throw at wannabes smart keywords... this is how it looks. You try to sell some crapy EA and argue it must not be backtested because past performance means nothing?

Read this "advice"... "Just move North. Never stop moving North. This is how I do my money" - so what? what is that? You just try to sell your "guru status"...

Folks read here some basic about money management and it is not that hard to maintain. I see EAs in this thread already have some choices for money management - you just have to choose which style you prefer.
Yeah this EA averaging agains the trend.

I have my own statistics that shows:
1. Grid = 100% loss. Just a matter of time. Because your channel is expanding but inside it is loss.
2. Averaging against the trend with multiplier = loss. Just a matter of time. But it is better than the grid.
3. Averaging with same size = best way, but you have to reduce take profit after every turn, or you will never recover.
4. x2 on every sell and buy = very interesting and promising in theory, but lossy in real trading because it "eat" your margin on spikes on ranging markets. I tried to use moving average instead of price but that approach has some issues too. If any interest I can describe them.
5. Mixed: first/second step(s) is averaging (because it works most time because ±85% of time there are flat). Then X2 at same level (becasue that mean the trend starts). This is the best possible way for me for now. But it is dangerous too because of multiplier.

Also I think that there is some edge in direction. As I see from stats it is better to average longs. Since markets are always go up most time. And there is some margin calculations issue with shorts, they are more expensive.

So I stand of this:

1. Lot size, TP, SL, averaging distance can't be static.
2. Multiplier is a way to lose all and the same time very small initial lot size make no sense.

Btw I have downloaded and tested EA from June to November 2020 and there are big DD/loss. Don't know how we can talk about "10 years of profit". There are 6 month of loss already.

P.S. I'm not a guru. I'm not blaming that EA or EA owner. I'm not selling anything. This is not an advice. Just my stats. If it can help then use my information. I just use averaging/grid methods in my trading so I can share some ideas and discuss if needed.
Observer effect
  • Post #95
  • Quote
  • Edited 5:39am Dec 27, 2020 4:46am | Edited 5:39am
I see here starts arguing who is/not "guru"... Hey.... you can do anything in this thread (sell your EAs, sell signals, bully me or anybody, troll - as you wish but according to FF general rules) - go ahead! I don't care about rules (except FF rules) and names/labels of anything and how you name anything or what you think about me. All I want is money. All the rest does not matter here in this thread.

I started with one idea - now have 10 different sub-versions (EAs) of that idea. I move forward - to the North. As MoneyZilla advises - never look back!!

What matters for me - I found a setup that worked 20 years - and 50% of that time with unknown data - so not overoptimized. I will pay attention more to that setup. Will test is that stable. Run on different days/months - to ensure is timing somehow give an impact on that. 17% yearly 20 years in a row for me means something worth spending more time to investigate.

Keep smiling
Quoting ryuryu
Yeah this EA averaging agains the trend. I have my own statistics that shows: 1. Grid = 100% loss. Just a matter of time. Because your channel is expanding but inside it is loss. 2. Averaging against the trend with multiplier = loss. Just a matter of time. But it is better than the grid. 3. Averaging with same size = best way, but you have to reduce take profit after every turn, or you will never recover. 4. x2 on every sell and buy = very interesting and promising in theory, but lossy in real trading because it "eat" your margin on spikes on ranging...
tnx really constructive post. Pointed out good questions - will think about that.

Don't know which exactly EA you tested here... we have a lot of versions... a little bit messy... but we are digging here some dirt to get out some gold

Here latest EA version backtests with real ticks November 2020 till now - all fine.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd_common_real_ticks.png Size: 40 KB


Attached File(s)
File Type: xlsx gbpusd_nov_2020_real_ticks.xlsx   58 KB | 210 downloads

Notice that this setup have only 1.05 lot multiplier. So maximum 1 deal volume here is 0.02 lots. In 20 years max dd was 1535 usd. So it can survive with 3000 usd allocated capital (then dd would be 50% and yearly profits ~17%). If you prefer 30% dd then allocate 5000 usd capital but then yearly profits on average ~10% - not much - better then invest in SP500...

But... we need to find n such similar setups for various symbols and run on 1 account. That combination could earn 30-70% yearly. Each setup now can be protected with SL.
To find setups for other pairs you have to implement in your EA dynamic lot size and dynamic step size. For example it can use ATR for that.
As an example: 1% for EURUSD is about 1200 points, but for GBPUSD is at least 2200. For USDJPY it is as small as 720. Pretty big difference.
You can adapt/fit the results for the pair, but this is not an approach I like. Everything must recalculate dynamically in real time. Or you can face big divergence in real trading.
Observer effect
I know there is a mess in this thread with EAs versions... I just move forward. Will try to refer to the exact EA version each time I provide some info.

Here how optimized 20 years for EURUSD with this EA version:

MT5 provides the excellent features for optimization automation - set optimization interval from 2000 - 2015 and then set forward (with unknown data for EA) from 2015. MT5 then will perform all forward tests automated too.

Here EURUSD results:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd_optimization_forward.png Size: 98 KB

As you can see setups that failed in 2000 - 2015 performed well in 2015 - 2020 and vice versa - setups that were good in 2000 - 2015 failed in 2015 - 2020.

We are looking for setups that performed normally in both periods - with known data (optimization) and with unknown data (real-life simulation with forward test).

So the best candidate is setup where the recovery factor in both periods was ~4. It means if experience drawdown 100 usd then profit is 400 usd. The bigger the recovery factor the better - means smaller dd and bigger profits.

And here how that EURUSD setup performed all time - 2000 - 2020:

What this EA particular setup does.. It waits when EURUSD price runs 95 pips starting from 7 AM morning (London time 5 AM) and opens the first deal in the same direction with TP target 70 pips. Then it averages out if the price decided to retrace. Yes it uses 2x multiplier but it has protective SL 750 usd. So all looks fine here:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd_setup_results.png Size: 41 KB

Attached File(s)
File Type: txt eurusd_set.txt   2 KB | 222 downloads


This setup max dd was 1228 usd. So it can operate with allocated capital 3000 usd and will earn on average 10% yearly profits... just another setup to run on 1 account.
Question - should we focus on so long history. The situation in forex in the 2000s was a lot different than now. What is "now"? 1 year? 3 years? 5 years? What do you think about how long history it is ok to consider?
It's quite a large drawdown, but I think what you can learn from it is that as long as it's profitable in the end, that's really all that matters. The key is having a big enough account size with very small positions. This is what they don't allow in casinos and they don't allow it for a reason. Someone who can bet with a large bankroll can withstand the drawdown from losses.

This is the beauty of trading. A system with 50% win rate can easily be profitable with the proper position sizing. So that 30%-40% prof a year is great if you have the discipline to leave it
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